Secondary Watch Market to Top New Sales by 2033 at $85 Billion

Sales of second-hand luxury watches will overtake new models within a decade as buyers seek out scarce Rolex, Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet timepieces, according to a new industry report.

(Bloomberg) — Sales of second-hand luxury watches will overtake new models within a decade as buyers seek out scarce Rolex, Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet timepieces, according to a new industry report.

The market for vintage and pre-owned watches will surge to 79 billion euros ($85 billion) in 2033, more than triple the 25 billion euros sold last year, LuxeConsult, a Swiss-based industry analyst and consulting firm, forecast.

Online sales will drive the jump amid a renaissance in interest in luxury timepieces fomented during the pandemic. As demand has boomed, consumers wanting to buy the most popular models from Rolex, Patek and Audemars Piguet have been frustrated by a lack of product and waitlists due to the limited production constraints at the top brands. Some buyers have turned to the secondary market where sellers and dealers charge a premium above retail prices for the most in-demand models.

The value of pre-owned watch sales rose 20% in 2022, the report said, while sales of new luxury watches rose 12%, topping 52 billion euros.

Amid the economic downturn, LuxeConsult expects secondary market sales to rise just 3% in 2023 and 10% in 2024 before averaging a 12% compound annual growth rate from 2025 until 2033. That’s compared to an average 4% growth rate in sales of new luxury watches.

The LuxeConsult prediction is even more bullish than a recent report by Deloitte which estimated the pre-owned market would grow by 75% to $30 billion by 2030.

The forecast could be a boon for major secondary market players including dealers such as WatchBox, Watches of Switzerland, Subdial and Watchfinder, which is owned by luxury conglomerate Richemont. Online marketplaces including Chrono24 and EBay would also benefit. Traditional Swiss watchmakers that focus on selling new timepieces, such as Swatch Group AG, might face increasing competition.

After peaking in March last year following an unprecedented surge, secondary market prices for the most popular Rolex, Patek and Audemars Piguet models have been falling steadily. The Subdial 50, a weighted index of prices for the 50 most traded luxury watches by value compiled by online marketplace Subdial, has dropped by 20% in 12 months. Still, secondary market prices for the most recent Rolex Daytonas, Patek Nautilus and AP Royal Oak models are still changing hands well above retail prices.

Rolex, Patek and Audemars Piguet account for more than 55% of the trading value of secondary market watches, according to LuxeConsult. The firm also works with Morgan Stanley each year to produce a comprehensive report on sales, production and market share of the top Swiss brands.

–With assistance from Lisa Pham.

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