Ukraine Latest: US Defense Chief Warns of New Russian Offensive

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin warned that Ukraine needs advanced weapons before an expected new Russian offensive — even as the US and Germany hold out on Kyiv’s requests for their most powerful main battle tanks. “We have a window of opportunity here between now and the spring, whenever they commence their operation,” Austin said after a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group.

(Bloomberg) —

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin warned that Ukraine needs advanced weapons before an expected new Russian offensive — even as the US and Germany hold out on Kyiv’s requests for their most powerful main battle tanks. “We have a window of opportunity here between now and the spring, whenever they commence their operation,” Austin said after a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group. 

No decision was made on the provision of Germany’s Leopard battle tanks to Ukraine at Friday’s meeting on Friday at Ramstein Air Base, although Berlin ordered a review of its tank inventories that could be the prelude to an offer. Austin also had news to share on M1 Abrams main battle tanks from the US. 

Russian authorities on Friday deployed air-defense installations in and around Moscow, including near President Vladimir Putin’s residence, after several recent drone attacks hit the country’s heartland. 

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Key Developments

  • Austin Warns US Allies Time Is Short Before Russian Offensive
  • German Tanks to Kyiv Are Stuck as US Resists Sending Its Own 
  • Russia Boosts Air Defenses Around Moscow Amid Drone-Strike Fears
  • Scholz and Macron Pledge to Strengthen EU in Response to Russia
  • Russian Billionaire Yacht Helpers Charged in US Sanction Scheme
  • Europe’s Need For Russian Gas Seems to be Dwindling

On the Ground

Ukrainian forces have repelled Russian attacks in the eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions in the past 24 hours, the armed forces’ general staff said on Facebook. Russian troops also fired at Ukrainian-controlled territory with mortars and artillery in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions in the south, causing civilian casualties, it added. Russia in the past day fired seven missiles and carried out 15 air strikes, the general staff said. Ukraine has likely “made small gains and successfully defended against a Russian counter-attack” near Kremina in the northeast in recent days, the UK defense ministry said.

(All times CET) 

Baltic Nations Push Germany Again on Leopard Tanks (8 a.m.)

The foreign ministers of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia again called on Germany to provide Leopard tanks to Ukraine, after no decision on the issue emerged Friday from the allied donors’ meeting in Germany. 

“Germany as the leading European power has special responsibility in this regard,” Lithuania’s Gabrielius Landsbergis said on Twitter. 

US Charges Two Men in Yacht Sanctions Case (11:30 p.m.)

Two men were charged by US authorities with helping operate Russian billionaire Viktor Vekselberg’s yacht in violation of sanctions imposed four years ago.

Vekselberg’s $90 million, 255-foot vessel called Tango was seized by Spain at the behest of the US in April, a high-profile victory for the Department of Justic’s KleptoCapture unit, formed to track down the assets of sanctioned Russian oligarchs and others close to President Vladimir Putin.

Russian Vladislav Osipov, 51, and Richard Masters, 52, of the UK, were indicted by a federal grand jury in Washington, the department said Friday. They’re accused of facilitating a scheme of sanctions evasion and money laundering. Masters was arrested in Spain on Friday at the request of the US and a warrant for Osipov remains outstanding, according to the statement.

Austin Warns US Allies Time Is Short Before Russian Offensive (8:23 p.m.)

Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said time is running out to give Ukraine the advanced weapons it needs before an expected Russian offensive in the spring, as both the US and Germany hold out against Kyiv’s requests for their most powerful battle tanks.

Austin said allied officials agreed at a meeting in Germany on Friday they would ensure that Ukraine gets the weapons it needs and the training to use them properly. He sought to play down any discord over whether to provide heavy tanks, which have been a key demand as Ukraine looks to blunt Russian forces in the east.

Read more: Austin Warns US Allies Time Is Short Before Russian Offensive

Scholz, Macron Pledge to Strengthen EU in Response to Russia (9:46 p.m.)

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron pledged to strengthen the European Union in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in a joint article for Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung published on Friday. 

Scholz and Macron are due to meet Sunday in Paris for the 60th anniversary of the Elysee Treaty, signed between Charles de Gaulle and Konrad Adenauer to end years of hostility. They said Europe needs to invest more in its armed forces and in the armaments industry. 

US Labels Wagner Criminal Group in New Bid to Blunt Its Power (8:45 p.m.)

The US dubbed Russia’s Wagner Group a transnational criminal organization in a new effort to blunt the mercenary company’s powerful role on the battlefield in Ukraine and around the world.

New sanctions will be coming next week against the group, which the US now believes has about 50,000 personnel deployed in Ukraine, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said. The Treasury Department designation will given the administration new authority to impose financial restrictions on Wagner and those who work for it.

The move marked the latest effort to disrupt the group, which has continued to gain prominence and power around the globe despite a raft of US, UK and European Union sanctions. The group’s leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, is considered a major ally and supporter of President Vladimir Putin and his war effort in Ukraine.  

North Korean Munitions Aiding Russian Effort (6:28 p.m.)

North Korean munitions and equipment have been delivered to the Wagner group to support their effort on behalf of Russia in Ukraine, according to a senior NATO official. While the amount of material that’s been delivered won’t change the battlefield dynamics in Ukraine, allies are concerned North Korea could deliver further military equipment.

The NATO official also noted changing tactics by Russia, including building up of more defensive infrastructure such as new trench lines in northern Crimea. In addition, the Russian military also appears to be attempting to maintain shorter logistics lines, though this will make them more dependent on Russian territory to enable logistics, the official said.

Zelenskiy, Erdogan Speak About Grain Export Expansion (5:30 p.m.)

Ukraine’s president spoke by phone with Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan, including about the possibility of expanding the safe-transit agreement for Black Sea grain exports to other ports. 

Erdogan reiterated his readiness to “handle mediation” between Russia and Ukraine in pursuit of a peace agreement, according to a Turkish readout, although no such talks seem in the offing.  

Poland to Donate T-72 Tanks, Fighting Vehicles to Ukraine (4:30 p.m.)

Poland will donate a brigade of T-72 tanks and infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine, as well as provide training on the equipment, said Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak. 

The move comes as potential provision of German-made Leopard tanks to Ukraine awaits a final decision following Friday’s meeting of allies at Ramstein Air Base. 

The T-72 is a Soviet-designed tank also built in Poland and other countries. 

Europe’s Need For Russian Gas Seems to be Dwindling (1:44 p.m.)

Europe’s appetite for natural gas from Russia appears to be diminishing after unseasonably mild weather and ample storage have brought costs down.

Pipeline flows via the Velke Kapusany pipeline have been down for two consecutive days at about half of their average December levels. While that initially sparked jitters over renewed Russian curtailment efforts on Thursday, it seems the lower shipments might actually be a signal that Gazprom’s clients in Europe don’t need their gas so much anymore. 

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