Fed hawks, doves, and centrists: Tracking US central bankers’ views 

(Reuters) – The labels “dove” and “hawk” have long been used by central bank watchers to describe the monetary policy leanings of policymakers, with a dove more focused on risks to the labor market and a hawk more focused on the threat of inflation.

The topsy-turvy economic environment of the coronavirus pandemic sidelined those differences, turning U.S. Federal Reserve officials at first universally dovish as they sought to provide massive accommodation for a cratering economy, and then, when inflation surged, into hawks who uniformly backed aggressive interest rate hikes.

Now, as Fed policymakers note improvement on inflation and some cooling in the labor market, the risks are seen as more balanced and the choices more nuanced.

All 12 regional Fed presidents discuss and debate monetary policy at Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings that are held eight times a year, but only five cast votes at any given meeting, including the New York Fed president and four others who vote for one year at a time on a rotating schedule.

The following chart offers a look at how officials currently stack up on their outlooks for Fed policy and how to balance their goals of stable prices and full employment. The designations are based on comments and published remarks; for more on the thinking that shaped these hawk-dove designations, click on the photos in this graphic.

Reuters over time has shifted policymaker designations based on fresh comments and developing circumstances – for an accounting of how our counts have changed, please scroll to the bottom of this story.

Dove Dovish Centrist Hawkish Hawk

  Patrick Jerome Neel Michelle

Harker, Powell, Fed Kashkari, Bowman,

Philadelph Chair, Minneapol Governor,

ia Fed permanent is Fed permanent

President, voter: President voter: “My

2023 “Declaring , 2023 baseline

voter: “A victory voter: economic

decrease would be “When outlook

in the premature activity continues

policy … But of continues to expect

rate is course the to run that we

not question is this hot, will need

something ‘when will that to

that is it become makes me increase

likely to appropriate question the

happen in to begin if policy federal

the short dialing is as funds rate

term.” back?” Dec tight as further.”

Nov. 8, 13, 2023 we assume Nov. 28,

2023 it 2023

  currently

is.” Nov.

7, 2023

  Raphael John Lorie  

Bostic, Williams, Logan,

Atlanta New York Fed Dallas

Fed President, Fed

President, permanent President

2024 voter: “We , 2023

voter: aren’t voter:

“There’s really “We have

not going talking seen some

to be about rate retraceme

urgency cuts right nt in

for us to now.” Dec that

start to 15, 2023 10-year

pull off yield and

of our financial

restrictiv condition

e stance.” s, and so

Dec 19, I’ll be

2023 watching

to see

whether

that

continues

and what

that

means for

the

implicati

ons of

policy,”

Nov. 7,

2023

    Philip Loretta  

Jefferson, Mester,

Vice Chair: Cleveland

“We are in a Fed

sensitive President

period of , 2024

risk voter:

management, “The next

where we phase is

have to not when

balance the to reduce

risk of not rates,

having even

tightened though

enough, that’s

against the where the

risk of markets

policy being are at.

too It’s

restrictive. about how

” Oct. 9, long do

2023 we need

monetary

policy to

remain

restricti

ve.” Dec

18, 2023

    Christopher Thomas  

Waller, Barkin,

Governor, Richmond

permanent Fed

voter: “I am President

increasingly , 2024

confident voter:

that policy “We’re

is currently making

well good

positioned progress

to slow the on

economy and inflation

get … We’re

inflation not yet

back to 2%.” done with

Nov. 28, inflation

2023 .” Dec

19, 2023

    Michael    

Barr, Vice

Chair of

Supervision,

permanent

voter: The

Fed is “at

or near the

peak” of

interest

rates.” Nov.

17, 2023

    Lisa Cook,    

Governor,

permanent

voter:  “I

see risks as

two-sided,

requiring us

to balance

the risk of

not

tightening

enough

against the

risk of

tightening

too much.”

Nov. 16,

2023

    Austan    

Goolsbee,

Chicago Fed

President,

2023 voter:

“As

inflation

comes down,

we’ve got to

think about

how

restrictive

do we want

to be and

are there

dangers on

the

employment

side of the

mandate.”

Dec. 15,

2023

    Mary Daly,    

San

Francisco

Fed

President,

2024 voter:

Holding

rates steady

as inflation

falls

increases

the

possibility

“that we

could

overtighten

quite

easily, and

so that’s

what I’m

mindful of.”

Dec 18, 2023

    Susan    

Collins,

Boston Fed

President,

2025 voter:

The Fed

should be

“patient and

resolute,

and I

wouldn’t

take

additional

firming off

the table.”

Nov. 17,

2023

Note: Fed policymakers began raising interest rates in March 2022 to bring down high inflation. Their most recent policy rate hike, to a range of 5.25%-5.50%, was in July.

Fed projections released on Dec. 13 showed no policymakers believe rates should go any higher next year, and a majority see them dropping by at least 75 basis points. Neither Jeffrey Schmid, who has been the Kansas City Fed’s president since August and will be a voter on the FOMC in 2025, nor Adriana Kugler, a permanent voter who was confirmed to the Fed’s Board of Governors in September, have yet made any substantive policy remarks. The St. Louis Fed is seeking a new president to succeed James Bullard, who took a job in academia; the new chief will be a voter on the policy-setting committee in 2025. Interim St. Louis Fed chief Kathleen O’Neill Paese appears to lean hawkish. 

Below is a Reuters count of policymakers in each category, heading into recent Fed meetings.

FOMC Date Dov Dovis Centr Hawki Haw

e h ist sh k

Dec ’23 0 2 9 4 1

Oct/Nov ’23 0 2 7 5 2

Sept ’23 0 4 3 6 3

June ’23 0 3 3 8 3

March ’23 0 2 3 10 2

Dec ’22 0 4 1 12 2

(Reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Paul Simao)

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