(Bloomberg) — French unions are betting on a massive turnout on Tuesday to bring the country to a standstill in a sixth day of protests against President Emmanuel Macron’s plan to raise the minimum retirement age.
(Bloomberg) — French unions are betting on a massive turnout on Tuesday to bring the country to a standstill in a sixth day of protests against President Emmanuel Macron’s plan to raise the minimum retirement age.
Strikes are expected to cause severe disruption to transport, with only one-in-five high-speed trains running, and a third of international Eurostar and Thalys services cut. Air France expects to operate eight out of 10 short- and medium-haul flights.
Paris subway and commuter train schedules will be severely impacted, according to operator RATP, which urged people to work from home if possible. Walkouts in the energy sector began days ago, hitting nuclear power production at utility Electricite de France SA.
Labor unions are calling for a surge in the number of people taking part in strikes and protest marches across the country after participation dropped significantly in February from a peak of 1.27 million on Jan. 31, according to Interior Ministry figures.
Opinion polls indicate opposition to the overhaul remains high, though off its peak. A survey of 1,002 adults by pollster Ifop for L’Humanite newspaper carried out on March 2-3 showed 65% of those interviewed want the government to withdraw the reform and support renewable strikes.
Macron’s government has shown no sign of backing down, however, saying that raising the minimum retirement age from 62 to 64 is necessary to keep public finances sound while funding other priorities such as the green transition. Indeed, a poll of 1,119 people by Harris Interactive for RTL radio and AEF Info on March 3-6 showed 79% expect parliament to adopt the changes.
“You don’t launch a pension reform lightly,” French Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne said on television show C a vous on France 5 on Monday evening. “My responsibility is to guarantee the future of our pension system.”
Inflation Challenge
The legislation is being reviewed by the Senate through March 12. The goal is for it to come into effect in September.
Macron’s determination to push through the reform despite public opposition is set against a backdrop of mounting concern over inflation. Consumer prices in France jumped by a euro-era record of 7.2% in February from a year ago as food and services costs increased.
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“There’s of course never a good moment to carry out a pension reform, but some times are worse than others — and this is a particularly bad one,” Bernard Sananes, president of pollster Elabe, told Bloomberg. “The pension reform is adding a layer of difficulty to those whose daily life is already difficult, and this is what the government underestimated.”
On Monday, French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire unveiled a deal with retailers in which they agreed to take a hit to their margins amounting to several hundred million euros by offering the lowest possible prices for essential food items during a three-month campaign to help households.
As for the impact of the strikes on the French economy, it shouldn’t be overestimated, according to Charlotte de Montpellier, ING senior economist for France and Switzerland.
“Disruptions have been, for now, limited to some very specific sectors, such as transport,” she wrote. “Given the development of home working since the pandemic, it is likely that the indirect costs of transport disruptions on other sectors of activity will be much more limited than in previous strikes.”
The hit to economic growth could become quantifiable if the protests intensify drastically and some sectors are blocked for several weeks, she said, though an impact greater than 0.2 percentage points seems very unlikely.
–With assistance from Julien Ponthus and William Horobin.
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