China is battling a resurgence of African swine fever, the deadly disease that’s previously wiped out almost half of its hogs, potentially pushing up prices for the country’s most popular meat.
(Bloomberg) — China is battling a resurgence of African swine fever, the deadly disease that’s previously wiped out almost half of its hogs, potentially pushing up prices for the country’s most popular meat.
Fresh outbreaks have been reported in various parts of China over winter. The disease is highly contagious and can result in massive losses in pig populations with drastic economic consequences. Rabobank Group expects the latest wave to reduce production capacity and push up pork prices in the second quarter.
The outbreak was pretty severe in January and February, especially in the northern producing regions, and some areas are still battling the disease, said Pan Chenjun, a senior analyst at Rabobank. She estimates that the latest wave has affected 10% of the nationwide sow herd, which controls hog production, leading to higher prices in the coming months.
The potential impact of African swine fever can be devastating. An outbreak in 2018-19 decimated China’s pig herd, causing prices to skyrocket and forcing many smaller farms out of business. The spike fueled inflation as pork is a key element in the Chinese consumer price index.
Official data on African swine fever are hard to come by in China as suspected outbreaks are not usually reported. Instead many farmers will try to limit the disease’s economic impact by the emergency sale of pigs. This leaves traders and analysts conducing their own surveys to assess the damage. They estimate that 8% to 15% of production could be lost due to the current outbreak.
Hog diseases, including African swine fever, usually flare up in the winter. This year, the outbreak seems worse than usual, which could be due to lax management of pig farms after China abruptly reversed its Covid Zero policy late last year, leading to worker shortages. The greater movement of people and goods probably facilitated the spread of the hog virus.
The impact of the latest outbreak will take a while to filter through to the market. For now, hog prices are weak on speculation that farmers are rushing their hogs for slaughter due to worries over the disease’s spread. Meanwhile, piglet prices have jumped about 20% so far this year as supplies tighten.
African swine fever is not a threat to human health and cannot be transmitted from pigs to humans. It’s highly resistant in the environment, meaning it can survive on clothes, boots, wheels, and other materials. It can also survive in pork products such as ham, sausages or bacon. There is currently no effective vaccine against the disease.
(Updates with details in final paragraph)
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