The Bank of Japan indicated a cautious stance toward pivoting from massive easing before achieving its inflation target, helping cool market speculation over any big monetary policy shift at the start of incoming governor Kazuo Ueda’s term.
(Bloomberg) — The Bank of Japan indicated a cautious stance toward pivoting from massive easing before achieving its inflation target, helping cool market speculation over any big monetary policy shift at the start of incoming governor Kazuo Ueda’s term.
“The risk from a hasty policy change that could lead to missing a chance of such achievement should be considered as more significant than the risk from a delay in policy change,” one board member said, according to a summary of opinions from the March 9-10 policy meeting released Monday. The record doesn’t disclose who said what.
The caution against acting too fast on tightening within the nine-member board could lead Ueda to take some time before making any major policy shifts. Ueda, a former BOJ board member, is known for dissenting from ending the zero interest rate policy in 2000.
The final meeting for Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s decade-long term ended before the Sillicon Valley Bank fallout and the Credit Suisse crisis became a dominant concern in global financial markets.
The summary showed no material difference from Ueda’s parliamentary hearings last month, where the incoming chief reiterated the need for continued easing. BOJ watchers are likely to keep a close eye on whether Ueda takes steps to mitigate increasing side effects once he takes up his post on April 9, particularly regarding the yield curve control program.
In a hint of a desire to send a dovish message amid lingering speculation over policy adjustments with inflation at a four-decade high, the word “persistently” was used three times in the summary to describe the need to continue with monetary stimulus, the most since July 2019.
While the summary signaled the BOJ’s overall inflation view has remained intact as the bank expects it to wane later this year, a couple of opinions noted the risk of upside surprise.
One said it is necessary to pay “full attention” to upside risk to prices. Another said higher-than-expected inflation may continue if the Japanese norm for prices changes following a significant inflation shock from overseas.
Ueda’s first policy meeting is scheduled April 27-28.
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