Signs of a cash squeeze are appearing in China as the quarter-end approaches, underscoring how the nation’s economic rebound is driving demand for loans and leading to monetary easing by the central bank.
(Bloomberg) — Signs of a cash squeeze are appearing in China as the quarter-end approaches, underscoring how the nation’s economic rebound is driving demand for loans and leading to monetary easing by the central bank.
The overnight repurchase rate, an indicator of interbank funding costs, climbed to the highest level since February 2021 on Tuesday. Short-term liquidity is becoming more scarce in the interbank market, as lenders set cash aside for quarter-end regulatory checks and disburse more loans amid a recovery fueled by a reopening of the economy.
A reduction in the reserve requirement ratio from March 27 is likely to ease the funding squeeze although the People’s Bank of China may step in to offer more liquidity support. When the overnight repo rate soared last month, the central bank pumped in 1 trillion yuan ($145 billion) of funds into the financial system over three sessions.
“Quarter-end factor may have added to the borrowing stress, but the tightness is likely to be temporary given an RRR cut is on its way, said Li Yishuang, analyst at Cinda Securities. “Before the RRR takes effect, PBOC may continue with flexible open market injections to sooth the borrowing-demand tension in the next few sessions.”
The overnight repo rate rose 17 basis points to 2.45%, while the seven-day tenor fell five basis points to 2.14% in a sign that traders expect liquidity conditions to ease later.
The surprise RRR cut, which was announced on Friday, is expected to release some 500 billion yuan of long-term funding into the banking system, according to some analysts. That would be in addition to the 281 billion yuan of policy loans the PBOC offered versus maturities this month, the largest monthly net injection since December 2020.
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