Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams has dismissed the idea that the central bank’s rapid fire interest rate increases were behind last month’s failure of two US banks. The International Monetary Fund begs to differ.
(Bloomberg) — Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams has dismissed the idea that the central bank’s rapid fire interest rate increases were behind last month’s failure of two US banks. The International Monetary Fund begs to differ.
In its Global Financial Stability Report published Tuesday, the fund tied the closing of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank to the aggressive tightening of credit by the Fed.
“As interest rates are being raised, vulnerabilities are appearing,” IMF Financial Counsellor Tobias Adrian told reporters at a briefing on the report. “We have seen that in March in the banking sector in the US and Switzerland.”
That assessment contrasts with comments made by Williams on Monday in a discussion at New York University.
“I personally don’t think it was the case that the pace of rate increases was really behind the issues at the two banks back in March,” he said. “I think it’s well understood there were some pretty idiosyncratic specific issues with those institutions.”
When SVB and Signature failed last month, the authorities took extraordinary action to contain contagion by guaranteeing all deposits in both banks and by opening up a new emergency facility at the Federal Reserve to provide more liquidity to the financial system.
Adrian agreed that SVB was an outlier, in terms of the scale of unrealized losses on its securities holdings and its susceptibility to sudden withdrawals by its depositors. That left it more vulnerable when expectations about interest rates tilted higher in early March after inflation came in hotter than forecast.
But SVB isn’t the only US bank that has seen its investments lose value as the Fed has raised interest rates, according to the IMF report. IMF officials calculate that almost 9% of US banks with assets between $10 billion and $300 billion would effectively be under-capitalized if they were forced to fully account for unrealized losses on Treasury and other securities they hold.
‘Risk Landscape’
A main thesis of the financial stability report is that a prolonged period of ultra-low interest rates left a host of financial institutions and investors exposed when central banks reversed course last year and tightened credit aggressively to beat back inflation.
“The rapid pace of policy tightening is causing fundamental shifts in the financial risk landscape,” the IMF said. “Asset allocations, asset prices, and market conditions are adjusting, challenging market structures, investors, and financial institutions.”
Adrian supported the forceful actions taken by the central banks to combat inflation, including decisions by the Fed and European Central Bank to press ahead with rate increases last month in the face of financial turmoil.
He said the authorities have shown that they have other tools besides interest rates which they can use to respond to disturbances in the financial system.
The key lesson from March’s turmoil is that “while there are vulnerabilities that can be triggered and can test financial stability, there are also policy tools that are available” to combat them, he said.
–With assistance from Jonnelle Marte.
More stories like this are available on bloomberg.com
©2023 Bloomberg L.P.