Chinese leader Xi Jinping finally spoke with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy after more than six weeks of speculation. Now comes the hard part in his push to end the 14-month war.
(Bloomberg) — Chinese leader Xi Jinping finally spoke with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy after more than six weeks of speculation. Now comes the hard part in his push to end the 14-month war.
The announcement at a special briefing late Wednesday in Beijing quickly diverted attention from an uproar caused by a Chinese diplomat who questioned the sovereignty of ex-Soviet states. While Beijing distanced itself from the remark, it undermined Xi’s quest to portray China as a neutral broker — particularly given his tight relationship with Russian leader Vladimir Putin.
Xi told Zelenskiy that negotiations were “the only viable way out of the Ukraine crisis,” while the Ukrainian leader called it “a productive hour-long conversation.” Still, Zelenskiy reiterated his long-held view that there could be no peace unless Russia gives back the land it gained in the invasion and also leaves Crimea, which Putin’s government seized in 2014.
Beyond vague platitudes about peace, which were broadly outlined in Xi’s 12-point blueprint to end the war released in February, Chinese officials at the briefing sidestepped or ignored questions about when a Chinese envoy would visit Ukraine, what countries might join the process, why it took so long for Xi to call Zelenskiy and — crucially — whether Beijing would support any effort by Russia to keep seized territory.
At a regular briefing on Thursday, the Foreign Ministry still had no details to offer. All would be revealed in “due course,” spokesperson Mao Ning told reporters.
Russia’s Foreign Ministry said it saw “broad resonance” between its views and those in China’s position paper on resolving the conflict. But spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said there’s little hope of talks now because of Kyiv’s “unrealistic demands.”
‘Miles Apart’
“All of the fundamentals are the same,” said Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, said after the Xi-Zelenskiy call. “Ukraine is preparing for a counteroffensive, Russia is not seeking any conflict resolution and the sides are miles apart for what the ultimate resolution might actually look like.”
“At the same time,” he added, “there is increasing pressure on China to show that it’s really invested into this peaceful resolution and it’s not siding with Russia.”
Since the war started in February 2022, China has echoed Russia in blaming NATO expansion for causing the crisis and amplified Moscow’s disinformation, including that the US runs weapons biolabs in Ukraine. Beijing has also avoided referring to the fighting as a “war.”
One clue into Xi’s thinking was the appointment of Li Hui, 70, to lead the delegation to Ukraine. He spent 16 years of his career working in either the Soviet Union or Russia, and served as China’s ambassador in Moscow from 2009 to 2019.
During that time, Li oversaw the upgrading of bilateral ties to “comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination,” a phrase that indicates relations with another nation are at one of the highest levels. Putin awarded him with the Order of Friendship, which Russia hands out to people who have gone to great lengths to boost ties.
Philippe Le Corre, senior fellow at Asia Society Policy Institute, described Li as “a heavyweight in Chinese diplomacy,” adding that the call was likely in the works prior to the misstep by Lu Shaye, China’s ambassador to France.
Macron, Lula
Xi’s recent visit to Moscow and many interactions with Putin “have all had a very negative impact on China’s reputation and image in Europe especially,” Le Corre said. “In many ways, this is a way to show goodwill to the Europeans.”
Still, it’s unclear where things go from here. Xi has sought to build wider momentum for some sort of peace push, courting high-profile visitors to Beijing including French President Emmanuel Macron and Brazilian leader Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.
That effort got derailed after an interview with Lu aired on April 21, in which he said that former Soviet nations don’t have sovereign status as independent countries. That forced Macron, who was already under fire for appearing too close to Xi, to condemn the remarks.
Xi took a step toward cleaning that up with the Zelenskiy call, saying “mutual respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity is the political foundation of Chinese-Ukrainian relations.”
More: Ukraine’s Allies Fear Breakthrough Unlikely Before Next Year
But whether he can get Russia and Ukraine to see eye to eye on the big question of territorial sovereignty remains very much in doubt. Although Xi has recently scored some diplomatic wins, including helping Iran and Saudi Arabia restore diplomatic ties, not many people are betting he can get Putin and Zelenskiy to shake hands.
“The Chinese have been weighing the pros and cons of engaging diplomatically on the Russia-Ukraine crisis for some time, but saw considerable risk of alienating Putin on the one hand and being held accountable for his intransigence on the other,” said Daniel Russel, a former assistant secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs in the Obama administration. “Moreover, unlike the Saudis and the Iranians, neither Moscow nor Kyiv is ready to stop fighting.”
–With assistance from Daryna Krasnolutska.
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