Thailand’s opposition parties are heading for a sweep of the May 14 general election, with Pheu Thai, a party linked to former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, poised to secure a clear majority in the lower house, according to a voters survey.
(Bloomberg) — Thailand’s opposition parties are heading for a sweep of the May 14 general election, with Pheu Thai, a party linked to former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, poised to secure a clear majority in the lower house, according to a voters survey.
Pheu Thai and progressive Move Forward Party are expected to win more than 300 of the 400 constituency seats up for grabs in the House of Representatives, a poll conducted April 24 to May 3 by the Nation Group showed Friday. Pheu Thai may win as many as 247 constituency seats and about 40% of the 100 party-list seats — above the half-way mark in the 500-member house, according to the survey.
The opposition parties will either need to form a coalition or win support of a section of the 250-member military-appointed Senate to install its candidate as prime minister as the upper house will vote alongside the elected members in selecting the premier.
More than 6,500 candidates from 70 political parties are running for election, billed as a contest between the pro-establishment parties of the ruling military-backed coalition led by Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-Ocha and the pro-democracy opposition led by Pheu Thai and Move Forward. Prayuth has helmed the country since a coup in 2014.
Move Forward is projected to win 79 constituency seats and another 30 party-list seats. Pita Limjaroenrat, the leader of Move Forward, topped the Nation’s poll for most-preferred prime minister candidates.
Thaksin’s youngest daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra, who is one of three prime minister candidates of Pheu Thai, slipped to number two in the list of preferred premier candidates with 27.6% support, while Pita saw a 12 point jump in his rating to 29.4% from the previous survey in April.
The survey by the Nation, which is one of Thailand’s largest media companies, was conducted among 114,457 eligible voters and has a margin of error of 3% for Bangkok and ranging from 5%-7% for other provinces, it said. The results echo National Institute of Development Administration’s poll this week, which showed a combined 72% support for Pheu Thai and Move Forward.
Prayuth’s United Thai Nation party is projected to win only seven of the 400 constituency seats while Palang Pracharat, which heads the outgoing coalition, forecast to secure only 5 seats in the poll that showed significant decline in the ranks of the undecided to only 8.6% from 32% in early April.
The pollster cautioned, however, that given the margin of error, Pheu Thai could end up with as few as 228 constituency seats and as low as 52 for Move Forward. The race will be “very tight” in 65 constituencies, it said.
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