Scarce rains are crushing wheat harvests in North Africa, ushering in the region’s largest imports on record.
(Bloomberg) — Scarce rains are crushing wheat harvests in North Africa, ushering in the region’s largest imports on record.
The area is facing its “worst seasonal drought” in recent history, according to a report Monday from the European Union’s Monitoring Agricultural Resources Unit, which also tracks nearby countries. That will push wheat yields in Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia 17% to 24% below the five-year average, with crop failures likely in some stretches.
The shortfall in the region’s domestic crops could boost imports to a record 31.7 million tons in the 2023-24 season, the US Department of Agriculture forecast this month. North Africa is one of the world’s top wheat buyers and already has been buying large amounts from abroad after another bad drought last year.
Global wheat prices have halved from last year’s record, cushioning some of the economic blow. Still, food inflation has been running hot across the region, where countries are struggling with rising poverty. Tunisian authorities recently urged cuts in bread consumption as some bakeries could not secure wheat supplies.
Heat waves compounded the impact of the dry soils on the harvest, which is just kicking off. In Algeria, there has been no rain since the start of March in most regions and the grain production outlook in Tunisia is “dire,” MARS said. The situation is better in Egypt, which relies more heavily on irrigation.
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