After a 31% surge in the US technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index this year, market strategists are at odds about whether investor positioning is getting crowded and if that could put the rally under pressure.
(Bloomberg) — After a 31% surge in the US technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index this year, market strategists are at odds about whether investor positioning is getting crowded and if that could put the rally under pressure.
Citigroup Inc. strategist Chris Montagu said long positions in Nasdaq 100 futures are at a three-year high and profit levels elevated. “Position risks are very much biased toward profit taking, which could create a headwind against the on-going rally,” Montagu wrote in a note dated May 30.
Barclays Plc’s Emmanuel Cau, on the other hand, sees scope for further gains in tech as investors give in to the fear of missing out. He retains an overweight recommendation on the sector, saying broader equity exposure “is neutral at best” despite the tech rally.
Tech stocks have roared back in 2023 after last year’s slump, boosted by the hype around artificial intelligence and bets that the Federal Reserve is approaching a pause in rate hikes. Worries about banking turmoil and the impact of a potential recession have also driven investors toward the sector as it’s perceived as more immune to the economic cycle.
This month alone, the Nasdaq 100 has jumped 8.4%, on track for its best May since 2005, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The S&P 500 is up less than 1%. On Wednesday, US stock futures edged lower following underwhelming economic data from China.
(Updates with US stock-index futures)
More stories like this are available on bloomberg.com
©2023 Bloomberg L.P.