BENGALURU (Reuters) – The Indian rupee is expected to open higher on Wednesday after U.S. inflation data reaffirmed views that the Federal Reserve will likely keep interest rates unchanged in June.
Non-deliverable forwards indicate the rupee will open at around 82.22-82.24 to the U.S. dollar, compared with 82.3675 in the previous session.
The consumer price index (CPI) showed an annual increase of 4% in May, slowing from 4.9% in April.
Data earlier this month offered a mixed picture of the U.S. labor market, while some Fed officials have called for a pause. Post the CPI data, the odds of a Fed rate hike in June have fallen to 8% from 25% on Tuesday.
The dollar index hovered close to an over three-week low hit on Tuesday, while the two-year U.S. yield dropped slightly in Asia after rising to its highest since March 10.
“We think it will be a hawkish pause as the Fed emphasizes that the hiking cycle might not be done. Whether the pause turns into a skip will depend on incoming data,” DBS analysts said in a note.
The risk sentiment remained robust, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching their highest closes in 14 months on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, the offshore Chinese yuan remained under pressure against the dollar after dropping to a new low since November on Tuesday.
KEY INDICATORS: ** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 82.35; onshore one-month forward premium at 7.5 paisa ** USD/INR NSE June futures settled on Monday at 82.4150 ** USD/INR June forward premium at 2.8 paisa ** Dollar index down at 103.23 ** Brent crude futures down 0.3% at $74 per barrel ** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 3.81% ** SGX Nifty nearest-month futures up 0.2% at 18,828 ** As per NSDL data, foreign investors sold a net $72.1 mln worth of Indian shares on June 12
** NSDL data shows foreign investors bought a net $28.5 mln worth of Indian bonds on Jun. 12
(Reporting by Sethuraman NR in Bengaluru; Editing by Sonia Cheema)
