By Nimesh Vora
MUMBAI (Reuters) – The Indian rupee is likely to decline on Tuesday, pressured by the dollar’s move higher versus its major peers and Asian currencies.
Non-deliverable forwards indicate rupee will open slightly weaker to U.S. dollar from 82.2450 in the previous session.
“Possibly a bit of a move higher (on USD/INR) at open and then a narrow range,” a forex trader at a bank said.
“Difficult to see (USD/INR) managing to climb above recent high of 82.35.”
The USD/INR’s range after last week has “definitely shifted higher”, but “nothing to be too excited.”
The dollar index rose above 102 in the Asia session, hovering near the highest in three weeks. The offshore Chinese yuan dropped to 7.1680 to the dollar while the Korean won incurred a 0.7% fall.
A private survey indicated that manufacturing activity contracted in China last month, impairing demand for the yuan and helping dollar push higher. Weakness on the Japanese yen contributed to dollar index reaching 102.
Investors await the U.S. ISM manufacturing data due later in the day, which will be followed by the services print on Thursday and the important non-farm payrolls report on Friday.
The data will come in the wake of expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve likely delivered its last rate hike in July. The odds of a rate hike at the September meeting have settled to just about 20%.
Oil prices pushed higher on Monday with Brent crude futures pushing to an over three-month high. The contract jumped 14% last month.
Surging crude oil prices and the move higher on the dollar index to boost USD/INR, Kunal Sodhani, vice president at Shinhan Bank, said. Pegs support for USD/INR at 82.15 and sees resistance at 82.50.
KEY INDICATORS: ** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 82.35; onshore one-month forward premium at 7.5 paisa ** USD/INR NSE August futures settled on Monday at 82.32 ** USD/INR August forward premium at 7.25 paisa ** Dollar index up at 102.02 ** Brent crude futures at $85.2 per barrel ** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 3.96% ** As per NSDL data, foreign investors bought a net $152.3mln worth of Indian shares on July 28
** NSDL data shows foreign investors bought a net $46.9mln worth of Indian bonds on July 28
(Reporting by Nimesh Vora; Editing by Nivedita Bhattacharjee)
