(Reuters) – The labels “dove” and “hawk” have long been used by central bank watchers to describe the monetary policy leanings of policymakers, with a dove more focused on risks to the labor market and a hawk more focused on the threat of inflation.
The topsy-turvy economic environment of the coronavirus pandemic sidelined those differences, turning Fed officials at first universally dovish as they sought to provide massive accommodation to a cratering economy, and then, when inflation surged, into hawks who uniformly backed aggressive rate hikes. Now, divisions are more evident, and the choices – to raise rates again, skip for now but stay poised for more later, or take an extended pause – more varied.
All 12 regional Fed presidents discuss and debate monetary policy at Federal Open Market Committee meetings, held eight times a year, but only five cast votes at any given meeting, including the New York Fed president and four others who vote for one year at a time on a rotating schedule.
The following graphic offers a stab at how officials stack up on their outlook for Fed policy and how to balance their goals of stable prices and full employment. The designations are based on comments and published remarks; for more on the thinking that shaped these hawk-dove designations, click on the photos in the graphic.
Dove Dovish Centrist Hawkish Hawk
Austan John Jerome Chistopher
Goolsbee, Williams, Powell, Fed Waller,
Chicago Fed New York Chair, Governor,
President, Fed permanent permanent
2023 voter: President, voter: “It is voter: “If
“Hopefully permanent certainly inflation
we’re going to voter: “To possible that does not
continue to me, the we would continue to
see debate is raise the show
improvement on really (federal) progress
the inflation about: Do funds rate and there
front.” Aug 1, we need to again at the are no
2023 do another September suggestions
rate meeting if of a
increase? the data significant
Or not?” warranted, slowdown in
Aug 2, and I would economic
2023 also say it’s activity,
possible that then a
we would second
choose to 25-basis-po
hold steady int hike
at that should come
meeting.” sooner
July 26, 2023 rather than
later”
after the
July rate
hike. July
13, 2023
Patrick Lisa Cook, Philip Michelle
Harker, Governor, Jefferson, Bowman,
Philadelphia permanent Governor and Governor,
Fed President, voter: Vice Chair permanent
2023 voter: “If Designate, voter: “I
“Absent any confirmed, permanent expect that
alarming new I will voter: “The additional
data between stay economy faces increases
now and focused on multiple will likely
mid-September, inflation challenges, be needed
I believe we until our including to lower
may be at the job is inflation, inflation
point where we done.” banking-secto to the
can be patient June 21, r stress, and (Federal
and hold rates 2023 geopolitical Open Market
steady.” Aug instability. Committee’s
8, 2023 The Federal ) goal.”
Reserve must Aug. 7,
remain 2023
attentive to
them all.”
June 21, 2023
Raphael Susan Michael Barr, Loretta
Bostic, Collins, Vice Chair of Mester,
Atlanta Fed Boston Fed Supervision, Cleveland
President, President, permanent Fed
2024 voter: 2025 voter: “I’ll President,
“I’d like if voter: “We just say for 2024 voter:
at all may be at, myself, I “My view is
possible to or near, think we’re that the
make sure we the point close.” July funds rate
don’t do too where 10, 2023 will need
much, and do monetary to move up
more than is policy can somewhat
necessary to pause further
get us to that raising from its
2% target..” interest current
Aug 1, 2023 rates.” level and
May 25, then hold
2023 there for a
while.”
July 10,
2023
Mary Daly, San Neel
Francisco Fed Kashkari,
President, Minneapolis
2024 voter: Fed
“Whether we President,
raise another 2023 voter:
time, or hold “We’re making
rates steady good
for a longer progress, and
period — we’re staying
those things on it. If we
are yet to be need to hike-
determined.” raise rates
Aug. 10, 2023. further from
here, we will
do so.” July
30, 2023
Lorie Logan,
Dallas Fed
President,
2023 voter:
“The
continuing
outlook for
above-target
inflation and
a
stronger-than
-expected
labor market
calls for
more-restrict
ive monetary
policy.” July
6, 2023
Thomas
Barkin,
Richmond Fed
President,
2024 voter:
“We have time
before the
next meeting
… to figure
out whether
the various
forecasts of
where the
economy is
going come
true.” Aug 8,
2023
Note: Fed policymakers have been driving up borrowing costs since March 2022 to bring down high inflation, and in July they increased the target policy rate range to 5.25%-5.5%. Most policymakers as of June expected at least one more rate hike by year’s end. Longtime banker Jeff Schmid starts as Kansas City Fed president Aug. 21, and will be a voter in 2025. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, a vocal policy hawk, left the Fed in July for a job in academia; the new chief will be a 2025 voter.
(Reporting Ann Saphir, Howard Schneider, Michael S. Derby and Dan Burns; Editing by Andrea Ricci)
