There’s this narrative circulating among the chattering classes that I failed miserably once again as a public handicapper in the Kentucky Derby.
(Bloomberg) — There’s this narrative circulating among the chattering classes that I failed miserably once again as a public handicapper in the Kentucky Derby.
My top pick — Angel of Empire — finished a mere third, they scoff. And, sure, my second pick, Mage, rocketed past rivals like they were tied to fence posts en route to a dominant victory at odds of 15-1, but I had only listed him as an exotics play. And besides, they say, he was buried at the bottom of the column: Who even reads that far?
Nonsense.
Sophisticated clients know these columns should be treated just like any other piece of Wall Street sell-side research. You have to read between the lines a little. Just like Buy often doesn’t really mean Buy and Hold doesn’t really mean Hold, first and second shouldn’t be read quite so literally. Come on, work with me here. I can’t do this all on my own.
So in the Preakness Stakes, when I tell you that I like Mage’s chances to repeat his Derby victory, don’t go rushing to conclusions. While I think he’s the most likely winner tomorrow, I don’t love the idea of betting on him at odds of less than 2-1. That’s not very appealing to me.
I’ll bet instead on a longshot that should offer similar odds to the 15-1 that Mage paid on Derby day. His name is Perform and he’s one of those late-developing types that I find hard to ignore. After struggling repeatedly in shorter races, he’s suddenly found his stride, notching back-to-back wins, in longer races run around two turns.
Now, going by speed figures, Perform’s got no shot at all in this race. By whichever metric you look at, he’s just way too slow. That’s possible, maybe the numbers don’t lie. But I like his progression and his athleticism and the way he travels — like a serious runner — in his races.
The colt is also trained by the Hall of Famer, Claude “Shug” McGaughey, and Shug ain’t one of those spotlight-grabbing types who’ll put a horse in a big race just to have his picture taken.
This is only the fourth horse he’s run in the Preakness in a career that spans over four decades. And because Perform wasn’t previously nominated for the Triple Crown series, Shug had to get his clients — the folks who own the horse — to cough up $150,000 to enter the race. You don’t write checks that large in this game if you don’t feel pretty good about your horse’s chances.
I’ll bet Perform to win and will, once again, use Mage as an exotics play alongside him. And, hey, congratulations. You made it to the bottom of the column.
(David Papadopoulos, an executive editor at Bloomberg News, is a voter in the thoroughbred industry’s Eclipse Awards. He has been publishing his Triple Crown picks, with decidedly mixed results, for the past decade.)
More stories like this are available on bloomberg.com
©2023 Bloomberg L.P.