A rush by top members of President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s government to resign from their posts has marked the beginning of the ruling Morena party’s three-month campaign to pick a successor for the charismatic Mexican leader known as AMLO.
(Bloomberg) — A rush by top members of President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s government to resign from their posts has marked the beginning of the ruling Morena party’s three-month campaign to pick a successor for the charismatic Mexican leader known as AMLO.
Lopez Obrador, who has retained nearly 60% voter approval, has said he won’t hand-pick his successor for the 2024 presidential election. Instead, Morena is supposed to choose its candidate in September after running a series of polls. Those competing until then stepped down from their jobs this week: Foreign Affairs Minister Marcelo Ebrard, Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum, Senate Majority Leader Ricardo Monreal, and Interior Minister Adan Augusto Lopez.
None of them has the same clout as AMLO, who ran for president twice before winning in 2018, but they are among the deal-makers who have been key to his government.
“They’re resigning because they’re the best leaders of our movement and those that can bring this boat, which already has a direction, to port,” AMLO said during a news conference on Friday.
In total, six politicians from Morena and its allies are expected to compete in the informal campaign period starting now. So much does it resemble the actual campaign season that opposition members have already complained to election authorities that the ruling party has an unfair advantage.
The president, who brought Morena to national prominence, will be a hard act to follow. His platform focused on rooting out corruption, helping working-class Mexicans, and critiquing the nation’s political elite has resonated with voters, and his travels across the country have made him a familiar face in distant towns, even if he has faced criticism for his austerity measures, response to social movements, and his heavy-handed attacks against everyone from top justices to electoral arbiters.
“The most attractive the candidate is, the greater the sweep — that’s why they’re looking to see who would be the most competitive,” said Jorge Buendia, the head of the Buendia & Marquez polling company. “The possibility of retaining the presidency is high independent of who the candidate is, but there are important differences.”
Morena decided that it, along with independent polling firms, will tabulate the preferences of voters from multiple parties by Sept. 6. Since it’s not technically campaign season, the winner will be named a national coordinator, but will be widely understood to be heading up Morena’s ticket in June 2024.
The candidates are also expected to finance their own unofficial campaigns instead of receiving funds from the party, said Morena’s national leader Mario Delgado.
‘Dedazo’ No More
For years, Mexican presidents are said to have picked successors from within their own party in an act commonly known as the “dedazo,” which refers to the kind of finger-pointing that has catapulted people to the country’s top position. The PRI, which governed Mexico uninterrupted for much of the 20th century, was famous for using this tactic to name successors from the president’s circle to maintain control within the hegemonic party for decades.
Lopez Obrador has maintained that the polling system is more democratic, but he’s not expected to shy away from making his opinions known.
“All of them are competing along the lines of being the most loyal or efficient leader to give continuity to Lopez Obrador’s project,” said John Ackerman, a law professor and former adviser to AMLO. “The president is the one who’s going to decide but the way he’s going to decide is not through the dedazo, but through influencing public opinion.”
Polls have been used to select Morena’s gubernatorial candidates in recent races, including Delfina Gomez earlier this month. Her win in Mexico State, which has more registered voters than any other, suggested that Morena continues to have wide support, even if there are areas where voters feel the party has been a disappointment.
“The devil’s in the details of course: who gets to do the polls and how the polls are designed,” Ackerman said. “Only occasionally are the polls actually made public. The results are made public, but the internal methodology, the databases, the questions are not.”
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