Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim will face a key test of support this Saturday in provincial polls, where he needs to win at least three of the six states up for grabs to ensure his government’s stability.
(Bloomberg) — Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim will face a key test of support this Saturday in provincial polls, where he needs to win at least three of the six states up for grabs to ensure his government’s stability.
The 76-year-old and his multiracial coalition are up against the pro-Malay Perikatan Nasional bloc led by former premier Muhyiddin Yassin. Anwar is relying on his anti-corruption and development planks to clinch a win.
The contest, which comes nine months after a national vote in November resulted in a hung parliament, has much at stake for Anwar who last time had to rely on longtime rivals to form the government. Any setback now could prompt his allies to reassess support, putting in motion the revolving door of prime ministers the nation has seen since 2018.
That will increase the downgrade risk for the economy, which currently enjoys the highest credit score among emerging peers in Southeast Asia, according to S&P Global Ratings.
“Anwar’s camp is already factoring a reduced majority and would be content with status quo,” said Hafidzi Razali, an associate director at strategic adviser consultancy BowerGroupAsia. That would mean retaining Selangor, Malaysia’s most industrialized state, as well as Penang, the top exporter, and Negeri Sembilan on the southwest coast.
Hafidzi is of the view Anwar will manage to hang on to those states — thoughts echoed by Syaza Farhana Mohamad Shukri, a political scientist at the International Islamic University of Malaysia. That’s because the three states have a mixed demographic, a factor that typically favors Anwar’s multiracial coalition, she said.
Anwar’s approval ratings exceed 60% in that region, according to a survey by pollster Ilham Centre published Thursday, bolstering the likelihood that they’re within his grasp. In contrast, satisfaction toward the prime minister is low in the remaining three states up for contest, which are mostly mono-ethnic and ruled by his opponent the pro-Malay Perikatan Nasional, the survey found.
Still, how Anwar’s rival-turned-ally, the United Malays National Organisation, reacts to the more granular results of the vote will be key to the unity government’s stability.
“While a Malay backlash is expected,” Hafidzi said, a drop in the share of support from non-Malays and Malay fence-sitters would be more concerning.
In the worst-case scenario, UMNO will retract support for Anwar’s administration, prompting Borneo-based allies to follow suit and depriving him of his parliamentary majority, Hafidzi said. Alternatively, prominent UMNO leaders and grassroots could quit the party and side with rival Perikatan Nasional, he added.
Religious Battle
The country’s Malay majority largely voted for the Perikatan Nasional alliance in the last general election at the expense of Anwar’s multiracial coalition. And winning them over — or at least stemming their falling support — will be Anwar’s biggest challenge in Saturday’s polls.
“It is difficult, but we are at least trying to face some of these difficult issues,” Anwar said at a rally on Sunday in Selangor, referring to the different demands from Malaysia’s diverse population.
Perikatan Nasional leaders such as Hadi Awang, president of the Malaysian Islamic Party (PAS) continue to paint the state polls as a religious battle. “To gain political power, Muslims must go out to vote. Fulfill your duty of voting to defend Islam,” he wrote on Instagram Sunday. That narrative helped PAS win the largest number of parliamentary seats in the November general election, and nearly cost Anwar the premiership.
Race and religion dominated the state polls’ discourse on social media from July 24-30, according to a preliminary analysis led by the Centre for Independent Journalism. Warnings about enemies of Islam taking over the country have also emerged online, it added.
The trend mirrors last year’s election, and has left Malay voters like restaurant worker Ahmad Gani Ishak in a dilemma.
“On the one hand, we are asked to vote for Perikatan Nasional to defend race and religion, while the unity government has done okay so far,” the 30-year-old said as he attended one of Anwar’s rallies in Selangor. Still, Ahmad was concerned the government was not as Islamic as he preferred.
Slowing Inflation
More could be done by the government to address the opposition’s messaging, said IIUM’s Syaza Farhana. “There is no real alternative narrative on Islam in the country at the moment that can effectively counter PAS’ version,” she said.
Instead, Anwar has made tackling living costs and helping the needy one of his biggest priorities. His government unveiled initiatives such as price-controlled meals in eateries and vending machines for the poor to sell food. On Sunday, he said he’d set aside 1.4 billion ringgit ($306 million) to fix toilets in schools across the country.
It’s a strategy that appeals to 57-year-old contractor Yap Yee Guan, an ethnic Chinese voter in Selangor. “There are some issues with the Selangor state government, but overall I am satisfied with the administration. I can’t connect with PN as it harps on race and religious issues too much.”
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