Asian stocks advanced ahead of US inflation data that may signal whether the Federal Reserve will keep raising interest rates.
(Bloomberg) — Asian stocks advanced ahead of US inflation data that may signal whether the Federal Reserve will keep raising interest rates.
Shares opened higher in Japan and Australia after US markets traded in a narrow range on Tuesday. Futures for equity benchmark in Hong Kong were little changed, while US futures were marginally higher in early Asian trade.
The S&P 500 closed almost flat, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 fell for the fifth time in six days as investors assessed the likelihood of another rate increase in May.
The dollar was little changed, while the Aussie was steady and the yen fluctuated after falling for a fourth day on Tuesday. Australian bonds opened lower, with the 10-year yield rising three basis points to 3.25%.
Treasuries were steady, with the policy-sensitive two-year yield remaining above 4%. Swap contracts are pricing in about three-in-four odds of another quarter-point Fed hike next month. Traders predict US rates will peak around 5%, with policymakers then cutting by at least 50 basis points by year-end.
Comments by Fed officials signaled a divide over the next policy move. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said Tuesday the US central bank should exercise “prudence and patience” in raising interest rates as policymakers assess just how much last month’s banking turmoil will contribute to tighter lending conditions. Meanwhile, New York Fed President John Williams said officials still have more work to do to bring down prices.
US headline inflation is expected to slow for both the monthly and yearly measures, while the core reading is forecast to ease slightly month-over-month, which corresponds to 5.6% year-on-year and above the headline 5.1% print. Core outpacing headline inflation suggests “recent disinflation has a strong transitory component, and underlying inflation is falling much more slowly,” according to Bloomberg Intelligence.
Absent some sort of major surprise on the upside or the downside on the inflation data, “I would expect that the Fed would increase Fed funds by another 25 basis points,” Belita Ong, chairman of Dalton Investments, said on Bloomberg Television. “We’re already starting to see some impact, but not a huge impact given the strong jobs numbers.”
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The International Monetary Fund warned in a report Tuesday it was too soon to sound the all-clear from the turmoil that’s shaken the world financial system, saying the banking breakdowns will likely be a drag on global economic growth. US banks on Friday will kick off what’s forecast to be the worst earnings season since the depths of the pandemic.
Elsewhere, Bitcoin advanced for a fifth day, after climbing above $30,000 on Tuesday for the first time in 10 months. Oil rose above $81 a barrel as the first of a spate of supply-and-demand projections scheduled this week forecast a modest rise in US production. Gold was little changed.
Key events this week:
- Canada rate decision, Wednesday
- US FOMC minutes, CPI, Wednesday
- Richmond Fed’s Thomas Barkin speaks, Wednesday
- China trade, Thursday
- US PPI, initial jobless claim, Thursday
- US retail sales, business inventories, industrial production, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
- Major US banks JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Citigroup report earnings, Friday
Some of the main market moves as of 8:13 a.m. Tokyo time:
Stocks
- S&P 500 futures were little changed as of 9:04 a.m. Tokyo time. The S&P 500 was little changed
- Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.1%. The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.7%
- Japan’s Topix index rose 0.6%
- Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 0.4%
- Hong Kong’s Hang Seng futures were little changed
Currencies
- The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
- The euro was little changed at $1.0916
- The Japanese yen was little changed at 133.67 per dollar
- The offshore yuan was little changed at 6.8931 per dollar
- The Australian dollar was little changed at $0.6652
Cryptocurrencies
- Bitcoin rose 0.2% to $30,257.54
- Ether was little changed at $1,893.39
Bonds
- The yield on 10-year Treasuries was unchanged at 3.43%
- Australia’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 3.25%
Commodities
- West Texas Intermediate crude was little changed
- Spot gold was little changed
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Cristin Flanagan.
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