Stocks mostly rise, precious metals slip in quiet Asian trade
Asian equities mostly rose Monday in quiet post-Christmas trading as investors look ahead to the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting this month, while precious metals retreated from record highs.Markets looked set to end the last few days of the year on a positive note, helped by hopes for more US interest rate cuts and optimism that the tech-led rally still has more legs.While the US central bank lowered borrowing costs earlier in December as expected, it also indicated it could stand pat when decision-makers gather again at the end of next month, with two voting against any move and one calling for a bigger reduction.The minutes from the meeting are due to be released on Tuesday and traders will be poring over their contents for any indication about its plans for 2026.The prospect of cuts has helped push world markets ever higher this year, offsetting niggling worries about stretched valuations in the tech sector.In early trade Monday, shares in Hong Kong, Shanghai, Seoul, Singapore, Taipei and Manila rose while those in Tokyo, Sydney and Wellington retreated.On commodities markets, gold and silver slipped after hitting new records in recent days.The precious metals have also enjoyed strong buying, with gold and silver both hitting record highs on expectations for more rate cuts, which makes them more desirable to investors.Their status as a safe haven asset in times of turmoil has also added to their allure amid geopolitical upheaval with US strikes in Nigeria and a blockade of Venezuelan oil tankers.On Monday gold was sitting around $4,500, having peaked a whisker shy of $4,550 on Friday, while silver slipped to $77.50 after touching a record $80.The white metal has also seen a sharp run-up in recent weeks owing to surging demand and tight supply.”We are witnessing a generational bubble playing out in silver,” wrote Tony Sycamore at IG.”Relentless industrial demand from solar panels, EVs, AI data centres and electronics, pushing against depleting inventories, has driven physical premiums to extremes.”Oil prices rose, having sunk more than two percent Friday as investors eyed the weekend meeting between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky on peace proposals.Trump said Sunday a deal was closer than ever to end Russia’s invasion of Ukraine but reported no apparent breakthrough on the issue of territory.The US president said it would become clear within weeks whether it was possible to end the nearly four-year-long war that has killed tens of thousands.- Key figures at around 0230 GMT – Tokyo – Nikkei 225: DOWN 0.3 percent at 50,550.17 (break) Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: UP 0.8 percent at 26,016.01Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.3 percent at 3,973.45Dollar/yen: DOWN at 156.31 yen from 156.50 yen on FridayEuro/dollar: UP at $1.1784 from $1.1776Pound/dollar: UP at $1.3509 from $1.3501Euro/pound: UP at 87.23 pence from 87.21 pence West Texas Intermediate: UP 0.7 percent at $57.14 per barrelBrent North Sea Crude: UP 0.7 percent at $61.09 per barrelNew York – Dow: FLAT at 48,710.97 (close)
Rohingya refugees hope new leaders can pave a path home
Rohingya refugees living in squalid camps in Bangladesh have elected a leadership council, hoping it can improve conditions and revive efforts to secure their return home to Myanmar.Spread over 8,000 acres in Cox’s Bazar in Bangladesh, the camps are home to 1.7 million members of the stateless group, many of whom fled a 2017 military crackdown that is now subject to a genocide probe at the UN court.In July, the refugees held their first elections since their influx began eight years ago, resulting in the formation of the United Council of Rohang (UCR).”They are working to take us home,” said Khairul Islam, 37, who back home had a thriving timber business.The new council has brought him a glimmer of hope amid an uncertain future.”We can hardly breathe in these cramped camp rooms… all our family members live in a single room,” he said.”It’s unbearably hot inside. Back in Myanmar, we didn’t even need a ceiling fan. In summer, we used to sit under tall trees,” Islam said, his eyes welling up.More than 3,000 voters from across 33 refugee camps cast their ballots to elect an executive committee and five rotating presidents to focus on human rights, education and health.Addressing a gathering at one of the camps, UCR president Mohammad Sayed Ullah urged refugees not to forget the violence that forced the mostly Muslim group to flee Myanmar’s Rakhine state.”Never forget that we left our parents’ graves behind. Our women died on the way here. They were tortured and killed… and some drowned at sea,” said Sayed Ullah, dressed in a white full-sleeved shirt and lungi.”We must prepare ourselves to return home,” he said, prompting members of the audience to nod in agreement.- A seat at the table -“UCR wants to emerge as the voice of the Rohingyas on the negotiation table,” Sayed Ullah later told AFP.”It’s about us, yet we were nowhere as stakeholders.”The council is not the first attempt to organise Rohingya refugees.Several groups emerged after 2017, including the Arakan Rohingya Society for Peace and Human Rights, once led by prominent activist Mohib Ullah.But he was murdered in 2021.And even before that, many organisations were shut down after a major 2019 rally, when the Rohingya said they would go home only with full rights and safety guarantees.”Some newspapers misrepresented us, claiming we wanted to stay permanently in Bangladesh,” Sayed Ullah said.”Many organisers were detained. The hardest blow was the assassination of Mohib Ullah.”But trust is slowly building up again among the Rohingya crammed in the camps in Cox’s Bazar.”Of course we will return home,” said 18-year-old Mosharraf, who fled the town of Buthidaung with his family.”UCR will negotiate for better education. If we are better educated, we can build global consensus for our return,” he told AFP.- Security threats -Many refugees have started approaching the body with complaints against local Rohingya leaders, reflecting a slow but noticeable shift in attitudes.On a recent sunny morning, an AFP reporter saw more than a dozen Rohingya waiting outside the UCR office with complaints.Some said they were tortured while others reported losing small amounts of gold they had carried while fleeing their homes.Analysts say it remains unclear whether the new council can genuinely represent the Rohingya or if it ultimately serves the interests of Bangladeshi authorities.”The UCR ‘elections’ appear to have been closely controlled by the authorities,” said Thomas Kean, senior consultant at the International Crisis Group.Security threats also loom large, undermining efforts to forge political dialogue.Armed groups like the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army and Rohingya Solidarity Organisation continue to operate in the camps.A report by campaign group Fortify Rights said at least 65 Rohingyas were killed in 2024.”Violence and killings in the Rohingya camps need to stop, and those responsible must be held to account,” the report quoted activist John Quinley as saying.
China’s BYD poised to overtake Tesla in 2025 EV sales
Growing Chinese auto giant BYD stands poised to officially surpass Tesla as the world’s biggest electric vehicle company in annual sales.The two groups are expected soon to publish their final figures for 2025, and based on sales data so far this year, there is almost no chance the American company led by Elon Musk will retain its leadership position.At the end of November, Shenzhen-based BYD, which also produces hybrid vehicles, had sold 2.07 million EVs so far in 2025.Tesla, for its part, had sold 1.22 million by the end of September. Tesla’s September figures included a one-time boost in sales, to nearly half-a-million vehicles in a three-month period, before the expiration of a US tax credit for buyers of electric vehicles — which ended under legislation backed by President Donald Trump, a climate change skeptic.But Tesla’s sales in the coming quarter are expected to fall to 449,000, according to a FactSet analysis consensus. That would give Tesla about 1.65 million sales for all of 2025, a drop of 7.7 percent and well below the level BYD had attained by end November.Deutsche Bank, which projects just 405,000 Tesla EV sales during the fourth quarter, sees the company’s sales down by around one-third in both North America and Europe, and by one-tenth in China.- Transition period -Industry watchers say it will take time for EV demand to reach a level of equilibrium in the United States following the elimination of the $7,500 US tax credit at the end of September 2025.Even prior to that, Tesla had seen sales struggle in key markets over CEO Musk’s political support of Trump and other far-right politicians. Tesla has also faced rising EV competition from BYD and other Chinese companies and from European giants.”We believe Tesla will see some weakness on deliveries” in the fourth quarter, said Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities.Sales of 420,000 would be “good enough to show stable demand,” with Wall Street “laser focused on the autonomous chapter kicking off in 2026,” Ives added, referring to plans for self-driving vehicles.Even as it has grown quickly, BYD has faced challenges in its home market. With profitability in China weighed down by price-wary consumers, the company has sought to strengthen its foothold in foreign markets.BYD is “one of the pioneers to establish overseas production capacity and supply chains for EVs,” Jing Yang, Director of Asia-Pacific Corporate Ratings at Fitch Ratings, told AFP.”Going forward, its geographical diversification is likely to help it to navigate an increasingly complicated global tariff environment,” said Yang.Overseas rivals to BYD have balked at Chinese state subsidies and other state supports that have allowed the company to sell vehicles cheaply. Trump’s predecessor Joe Biden imposed 100 percent tariffs on Chinese EV imports that could potentially go even higher under Trump. Europe has also imposed tariffs on Chinese imports, but BYD is building manufacturing capacity in Hungary.While the chance of Tesla reclaiming its global leadership in EVs looks uncertain, the American company is also potentially positioned for growth.Michaeli of TD Cowen sees autonomous technology playing an increasingly important role for Tesla, with breakthroughs in its “full self-driving” or “FSD” offerings potentially boosting sales.”As Tesla really begins to roll out eyes-off features and expand FSDs capability, if they do that successfully, that should generate more demand for their vehicles,” Michaeli said.Musk has said the Cybercab, an autonomous robotaxi model, will begin production in April 2026. The company has also unveiled lower-priced versions of the Models 3 and Y that could boost sales.
China’s BYD poised to overtake Tesla in 2025 EV sales
Growing Chinese auto giant BYD stands poised to officially surpass Tesla as the world’s biggest electric vehicle company in annual sales.The two groups are expected soon to publish their final figures for 2025, and based on sales data so far this year, there is almost no chance the American company led by Elon Musk will retain its leadership position.At the end of November, Shenzhen-based BYD, which also produces hybrid vehicles, had sold 2.07 million EVs so far in 2025.Tesla, for its part, had sold 1.22 million by the end of September. Tesla’s September figures included a one-time boost in sales, to nearly half-a-million vehicles in a three-month period, before the expiration of a US tax credit for buyers of electric vehicles — which ended under legislation backed by President Donald Trump, a climate change skeptic.But Tesla’s sales in the coming quarter are expected to fall to 449,000, according to a FactSet analysis consensus. That would give Tesla about 1.65 million sales for all of 2025, a drop of 7.7 percent and well below the level BYD had attained by end November.Deutsche Bank, which projects just 405,000 Tesla EV sales during the fourth quarter, sees the company’s sales down by around one-third in both North America and Europe, and by one-tenth in China.- Transition period -Industry watchers say it will take time for EV demand to reach a level of equilibrium in the United States following the elimination of the $7,500 US tax credit at the end of September 2025.Even prior to that, Tesla had seen sales struggle in key markets over CEO Musk’s political support of Trump and other far-right politicians. Tesla has also faced rising EV competition from BYD and other Chinese companies and from European giants.”We believe Tesla will see some weakness on deliveries” in the fourth quarter, said Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities.Sales of 420,000 would be “good enough to show stable demand,” with Wall Street “laser focused on the autonomous chapter kicking off in 2026,” Ives added, referring to plans for self-driving vehicles.Even as it has grown quickly, BYD has faced challenges in its home market. With profitability in China weighed down by price-wary consumers, the company has sought to strengthen its foothold in foreign markets.BYD is “one of the pioneers to establish overseas production capacity and supply chains for EVs,” Jing Yang, Director of Asia-Pacific Corporate Ratings at Fitch Ratings, told AFP.”Going forward, its geographical diversification is likely to help it to navigate an increasingly complicated global tariff environment,” said Yang.Overseas rivals to BYD have balked at Chinese state subsidies and other state supports that have allowed the company to sell vehicles cheaply. Trump’s predecessor Joe Biden imposed 100 percent tariffs on Chinese EV imports that could potentially go even higher under Trump. Europe has also imposed tariffs on Chinese imports, but BYD is building manufacturing capacity in Hungary.While the chance of Tesla reclaiming its global leadership in EVs looks uncertain, the American company is also potentially positioned for growth.Michaeli of TD Cowen sees autonomous technology playing an increasingly important role for Tesla, with breakthroughs in its “full self-driving” or “FSD” offerings potentially boosting sales.”As Tesla really begins to roll out eyes-off features and expand FSDs capability, if they do that successfully, that should generate more demand for their vehicles,” Michaeli said.Musk has said the Cybercab, an autonomous robotaxi model, will begin production in April 2026. The company has also unveiled lower-priced versions of the Models 3 and Y that could boost sales.