Au Canada, le Premier ministre Mark Carney toujours en tête, à une semaine d’un vote décisif

A une semaine du vote au Canada, l’espoir pour les conservateurs de revenir au pouvoir s’amenuise. Les libéraux du Premier ministre Mark Carney sont en effet donnés vainqueurs par tous les sondages, ce dernier étant considéré comme plus crédible pour affronter Donald Trump.Le scrutin du 28 avril se déroule dans un climat tendu dans ce pays du G7 de 41 millions d’habitants, toujours sous le choc des secousses provoquées par les tensions commerciales et les menaces d’annexion du président américain.Signe que cette campagne est considérée comme exceptionnelle par de nombreux citoyens: les débats entre les candidats ont été très suivis et vendredi, premier jour du vote par anticipation, deux millions d’électeurs ont déposé leur bulletin dans l’urne, un record.A la sortie d’un bureau de vote de Montréal, Christine Bonenfant explique à l’AFP qu’elle a choisi le parti qui selon elle, “s’en sortira le mieux face à Donald Trump” et ramènera “la sérénité”. Elle “espère que beaucoup de gens iront voter” pour cette élection “importante”.”C’est la première fois que j’hésite autant”, explique Josée Fournier, venue elle aussi voter par anticipation. Le Canada a une “épée de Damoclès” au-dessus de la tête “à cause de la situation avec le voisin du Sud”.- Majorité -Deux partis ont largement dominé cette campagne: les libéraux du nouveau Premier ministre Mark Carney, qui a remplacé Justin Trudeau il y a un mois, et les conservateurs de Pierre Poilievre. Selon les dernières projections, les Libéraux pourraient être en mesure de remporter assez de sièges pour obtenir une majorité, ce qu’ils avaient échoué à accomplir lors des deux derniers scrutins.Ils sont crédités d’environ 44% des votes et les conservateurs de 38%. Vient ensuite le Nouveau parti démocratique (NPD, gauche) à 8%, suivi par le Bloc québécois (parti indépendantiste) avec 5%, et le parti vert à 2%.Finalement, le profil international de Mark Carney et son expérience de banquier central semblent avoir davantage convaincu un électorat en quête de stabilité face aux défis économiques qui attendent le pays, selon les enquêtes de sondage.”Le chaos est entré dans nos vies. C’est une tragédie, mais c’est aussi une réalité. La question clé de cette élection est de savoir qui est le mieux placé pour s’opposer au président Trump?”, a-t-il déclaré pendant le week-end depuis Niagara, à la frontière américaine, devant les chutes.Dans le bras de fer commercial qui oppose le Canada aux Etats-Unis, ce novice en politique a promis de maintenir des droits de douane sur les produits américains tant que les mesures de Washington seront en place.Mais aussi de développer le commerce au sein du pays en levant les barrières douanières entre provinces et de chercher de nouveaux débouchés, notamment en Europe.Il s’est également engagé à investir massivement dans la défense, l’énergie et le logement, et veut réduire les impôts des ménages les plus modestes.”En recentrant le parti libéral par rapport aux années Trudeau, il a sûrement réussi à convaincre une partie de ceux qui étaient prêts à voter conservateur”, estime Félix Mathieu, politologue à l’université de Winnipeg.Et puis, “son calme, son pragmatisme rassurent les gens”. “Lors des débats, il a donné l’impression d’être au-dessus de la mêlée”.- “Besoin d’un changement” -A 45 ans, Pierre Poilievre, son principal opposant, est un vétéran de la politique canadienne, élu depuis plus de 20 ans. Chef du Parti conservateur depuis 2022, cet adepte des formules choc a dominé les sondages pendant des mois et semblait promis au poste de Premier ministre.”Après la décennie libérale, marquée par l’augmentation des coûts, de la criminalité et la chute de l’économie, les libéraux ne méritent pas un quatrième mandat”, a-t-il lancé ce week-end lors d’un événement de campagne.”Nous avons besoin d’un changement avec un nouveau gouvernement conservateur qui réduira les impôts, construira des logements, libérera nos ressources et renforcera notre économie.”Son style et certaines de ses idées, proches de celles des républicains américains, lui ont aliéné une partie de l’électorat, notamment les femmes, selon les analystes.Le vainqueur devrait être connu quelques heures après la clôture des bureaux de vote le 28 avril.

Beijing slams ‘appeasement’ of US in trade deals that hurt China

China on Monday hit out at other countries making trade deals with the United States at Beijing’s expense, promising countermeasures against those who “appease” Washington in the blistering tariff war.While the rest of the world has been slapped with a blanket 10 percent tariff, China faces levies of up to 145 percent on many products. Beijing has responded with duties of 125 percent on US goods.A number of countries are now engaged in negotiations with the United States to lower tariffs, parallel to Washington’s full trade war against top US economic rival China.But Beijing warned nations on Monday not to seek a deal with the United States that compromised its interests.”Appeasement will not bring peace, and compromise will not be respected,” a spokesperson for Beijing’s commerce ministry said in a statement.”To seek one’s own temporary selfish interests at the expense of others’ interests is to seek the skin of a tiger,” Beijing said.That approach, it warned, “will ultimately fail on both ends and harm others”.”China firmly opposes any party reaching a deal at the expense of China’s interests,” the spokesperson said.”If such a situation occurs, China will never accept it and will resolutely take reciprocal countermeasures,” they added.US President Donald Trump’s tariff blitz has seen Washington and Beijing impose eye-watering duties on imports from the other, fanning a standoff between the economic superpowers that has sparked global recession fears and sent markets into a tailspin.Trump said Thursday that the United States was in talks with China on tariffs, adding that he was confident the world’s largest economies could make a deal to end the bitter trade war.”Yeah, we’re talking to China,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office. “I would say they have reached out a number of times.””I think we’re going to make a very good deal with China,” he said at the White House.China has vowed to fight a trade war “to the end” and has not confirmed that it is in talks with Washington, though it has called for dialogue.It has slammed what it calls “unilateralism and protectionism” by the United States — and warned about an international order reverting to the “law of the jungle”.”Where the strong prey on the weak, all countries will become victims,” Beijing said Monday.

Trump in his own words: 100 days of quotes

Donald Trump’s first 100 days back in the US presidency have showcased his unique ability to shock — and sometimes entertain — with outrageous remarks that pull no punches.From stroking his own ego to berating American allies, here are some of Trump’s most memorable quotes since he returned to the White House:– “I was saved by God to make America great again”Trump cast himself as a messianic-like figure on his first day back in office, as he recounted to US lawmakers how he survived an assassination attempt at a campaign event in Pennsylvania last year.– “A Dictator without Elections”The president’s extraordinary verdict on Volodymyr Zelensky marked a major shift in previously friendly US relations toward the Ukrainian leader, who accused Trump of succumbing to Russian “disinformation.” Trump later walked back the comment made in February on his Truth Social platform, asking a journalist, “Did I say that?”– “These countries are calling us up, kissing my ass”This mocking remark about world leaders made at a Republican conference in April came as countries desperately sought to temper Trump’s sweeping tariffs, which upended global markets before he announced a 90-day pause.– “The Riviera of the Middle East”Trump’s startling vision for a US-led takeover and transformation of war-torn Gaza into a luxury resort drew audible gasps at a February news conference alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.– “Canada should become our Cherished 51st State”America’s northern neighbor was furious about this Truth Social post by Trump in February, which sparked real concerns among some Canadians of a looming US annexation attempt.– “The European Union was formed in order to screw the United States”Trump set the tone for hostile trade relations with the EU at his first cabinet meeting in February, reversing course on a decades-long record of US backing for the 27-nation economic and political bloc. — “This judge, like many of the Crooked Judges’ I am forced to appear before, should be IMPEACHED”Trump, the first convicted felon to be elected president, drew a rare public rebuke from the Supreme Court chief justice after he called for the impeachment of Judge James Boasberg in a Truth Social post in March.Boasberg was one of several judges to curtail Trump’s executive power — in this case over migrant deportation flights — due to concerns about the legality of his administration’s actions.

Trump tariffs stunt US toy imports as sellers play for time

Josh Staph fears the fun-packed shelves of his toy warehouse might start looking joyless in the months ahead, with made-in-China flying discs and model gliders grounded -– like much of his product line –- by Donald Trump’s tariffs.”Things have ground to a halt,” said Staph, chief executive of Duncan Toys Company, which has a warehouse in Indiana. With his products now facing a steep 145 percent levy, “we stopped shipping goods into the US,” he added.Nearly 100 days into President Donald Trump’s White House return, US businesses are scrambling to adjust to fast-changing trade policies.The $40 billion toy industry, which heavily relies on production in China, is hard hit, companies tell AFP.Of over $17 billion worth of toys imported to the US last year, more than $13 billion came from China.Duncan’s entire product range is designed and developed in the United States, Staph said, but Chinese factories make almost all the toys.Firms there have developed specialized abilities to produce intricate parts for items like its best-selling yo-yos.Most American toy companies have halted shipments since Trump imposed new tariffs on many products from China this year, Staph said.The move raised the duty that US firms pay when they import any Chinese-made toys — from plushies to action figures — from zero to 145 percent, more than doubling import costs.”It’s pretty debilitating,” Staph added. “As a business leader, after 100 days of the administration, I’d say that the most challenging part is the uncertainty.” “It’s tough to build any sort of strategy and go for a plan when we know that things are changing almost on a daily basis.”- ‘Tariff surcharges’ -Rita Pin Ahrens, who runs three toy stores including one in Washington, started receiving “tariff surcharges” of 15 percent to 25 percent in March. She expects them to mount to 145 percent.Many of the thousands of toys she sells are either imported from places like China, or are partially made in the world’s second biggest economy.Still, she said: “We’re trying to minimize the cost to our consumers.”This has meant holding off purchases that become too pricey or stocking up before tariffs kicked in. And shipment delays have already begun.”It has been a complete nightmare,” she said. “I am really, truly worried about whether we can actually sustain the store.”Many US brands are small businesses with limited cashflow, said Greg Ahearn, chief executive of industry group The Toy Association.They struggle to pay sudden tariffs on containers of toys that may have already been manufactured.Meanwhile, “production of toys has all but stopped in China,” he said.- ‘Difficult Christmas’ -Staph of Duncan Toys said inventory to supply US retailers like Target and Walmart through year-end holidays has not entered the country yet.Typically, toys produced in spring arrive over the summer for shipping in the fall as stores prepare for the holiday shopping boom, with around 90 percent of stock coming from overseas.”If this isn’t cleared up in 30 to 60 days, it’s going to be a really difficult Christmas season with empty shelves in a lot of major retailers,” Staph warned.And if tariffs remain in force, “the pricing of those toys that are even available will probably be twice, if not more, the price they were last year,” said Ahearn of The Toy Association.While the United States makes some toys, many products require hand labor and it will take years to grow the US manufacturing base, Ahearn believes.The injection molding process used to produce many items requires extremely large, heavy tools that cannot be moved and must be installed from scratch.Companies were ready to work around Trump’s 10 percent additional tariff on Chinese imports, imposed in February over China’s alleged role in the fentanyl supply chain.But in March, Trump raised the level to 20 percent. In April, the figure exploded to 145 percent.Staph hopes the toy industry can gain exemptions, noting that Trump has begun targeting specific industries.”Toys are important for children’s development,” Ahrens said, noting that toys were excluded from tariffs during Trump’s first administration.”I really urge the president to do that again.”

Trump’s speech style: performing the exceptional everyman

A businessman and television personality long before he turned politician, US President Donald Trump has shattered the mould of how White House leaders typically act — and talk.On stage he often appears to be shooting from the hip, with his meandering digressions, catchphrases, blunt insults and constant use of superlatives.But what stands out from a closer look at Trump’s distinctive rhetoric style? As he reaches the first 100 days of his second term, here is a roundup of findings from an AFP analysis of 433 hours of Trump’s public speaking.These are compared with millions of sentences of conversations and speeches from average Americans transcribed by the collaborative project American National Corpus.- Winners and losers -Competition-related rhetoric dominates, with the world frequently divided between “winners” and “losers”,  “us” and “them”, those who are “very interesting” and those who are “pathetic”. The data shows that competition-related words are 5.4 times more present than in the speech of regular Americans.Trump also uses superlative adjectives twice as much as average, and superlative adverbs 3.6 times more than average.Descriptions of others are rarely neutral in Trump speak. They are rather depicted as enemies or insulted as animals or pollutants, often through schoolyard-type nicknames like “Sleepy Joe” Biden or “Crazy Kamala” Harris.The demonizing simplifies issues — or oversimplifies — on purpose.”Mapping politics onto warlike competition results in a problematic reduction in complexity,” wrote linguist Anthony Koth from the Rice University, in his contribution to the 2022 book “Linguistic Inquiries into Donald Trump’s Language.” Rules, referees, and opponents become “one and the same: the enemy or opposing force whose objective is to deny Trump”.Linguist Ulrike Schneider from the University of Mainz pointed to Trump’s recent rhetoric on global tariffs.Politics and the economy are a zero-sum game, “where one’s perceived losses come about because of another’s perceived illegitimate gain,” he told AFP.- Trump as exceptional -Trump seeks to appeal to the common American while simultaneously emphasizing a vision of himself as an exceptional figure.”I think that’s what (his) language does, he performs being ordinary and he performs being extraordinary: strong and clear in his vision,” said Schneider.”You need to be perceived as the guy next door. But at the same time you also need to prove that you’re this kind of messiah, this leader figure”, said Schneider.Trump uses a superlative every 19 adjectives — twice as often as the average American (every 41 adjectives).Among his favourites is “greatest.” He insists he is there to beat records, his pledges and actions are “never seen”, “never happened”, “like never”, preferably “in the history of our country”.The data finds that Trump says “in the history of our country” on average every five minutes.- Businessman banter -Before the White House Trump was a property developer and TV star on “The Apprentice,” where he played a successful tycoon. He continues to talk in the same style, with repetitive, short sentences — two words shorter than the standard — and relentlessly self-promoting.One of his most unusual traits is to refer to himself in the third person: Trump says the word “Trump” every six minutes.For example, take the president’s performance at an Oval Office meeting this April where he signed a decree ending protections for a large swath of ocean. At the ceremony, he boasted that he had previously ended the protections during his first term, only for his successor, Biden, to return the area to a no-fishing zone.”I did it last time. And they undid it. That’s why we have to stay president for a long time,” Trump said, referring to himself as “we.”

Trump’s first 100 days: The (lackluster) opposition score card

As he marks 100 days in office, much ink will be spilt on Donald Trump’s divisive transformation of the US government, but Democrats are themelves under scrutiny over missteps in opposing his blitz of reforms.In AFP interviews, multiple political analysts said Democrats have become a rudderless, divided party struggling to decide what it stands for.”If I were giving them a letter grade, it would be a C-, below average. They don’t understand yet why they lost to Donald Trump,” said veteran political strategist Matt Klink.”The party continues to focus on issues that are unpopular with the American public — men playing in women’s sports, support for illegal immigration and fighting cuts, any cuts, to the federal bureaucracy.”What’s more, “most voters (are) not listening or caring” to Democrats’ allegations that Trump is a dictator or authoritarian, Klink said.Booted out of the White House and reduced to a minority in Congress, Democrats’ opportunities to make their mark in Trump’s Washington are threadbare. But most analysts interviewed by AFP said the party could have better articulated a coherent message, unified around priorities and tactics and figured out how and when to oppose Trump. “Broadly speaking, I think most Americans would regard congressional Democrats as failing to meet the moment,” said Flavio Hickel, a politics professor at Washington College.Central to the frustration is the disconnect between their dire warnings of the threat Trump poses to democracy and their enthusiasm for being seen cooperating with his administration. In a whirlwind first three months in office, Trump has unleashed a trade war, stoked allies’ fears America has switched sides in the Russia-Ukraine war and unleashed tech billionaire Elon Musk to dismantle much of the federal bureaucracy.Meanwhile Democratic senators have voted to confirm Trump cabinet appointees, doing little to slow down his breakneck agenda and even voting with Republicans to pass immigration legislation.- Resistance -“We’re not going to go after every single issue,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer told the New York Times in February. “We are picking the most important fights and lying down on the train tracks on those fights.”But Schumer — and potential 2028 presidential contenders like governors Gavin Newsom and Gretchen Whitmer — have infuriated grassroots activists over various efforts to cooperate with the White House or build bridges with Trump’s “MAGA” movement.Meanwhile Democratic lawmakers have been mocked on social media for ineffective gestures such as silently waving paddles bearing protest slogans during Trump’s speech to Congress.Rare glimpses of a fightback have included victory in a Wisconsin Supreme Court race, and a hugely popular “Fighting Oligarchy” tour by progressive lawmakers Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.Popular New Jersey senator Cory Booker provided a possible roadmap for eyecatching opposition, say analysts, with a blockbuster 25-hour Senate speech that made headlines for days. But Madeline Summerville, a former communications advisor and speechwriter for Democratic state senators, said Booker’s actual message had been lost in the noise.”The Dems struggle with messaging. They don’t understand that you need a rallying cry — a slogan — to motivate the masses. And that slogan needs to be clear, concise and inspiring,” she said.”They’re calling on people to ‘fight oligarchy’ but they’re not telling us how — nor is that a very catchy slogan.”Andrew Koneschusky, a former communications aide to Schumer, said that he would give Democrats in Congress a D grade, noting that while individual lawmakers were making a splash, “no one seems to be conducting the orchestra.”But he was more optimistic about grassroots opposition, which he awarded a B grade, pointing to lawsuits that have had some success in reining Trump in.”After a deafening silence, we’re also seeing more visible signs of resistance such as the recent marches in Washington DC and across the country that drew hundreds of thousands of people,” he said.”It feels like Democrats are finally emerging from their post-election funk.”

JD Vance: Trump’s global ‘bad cop’

JD Vance has taken the historically thankless job of US vice president by the scruff of the neck, carving out a role as the Trump administration’s global attack dog in its first 100 days.Whereas some of his predecessors have waited out their time a heartbeat away from the presidency, the ambitious 40-year-old has not been afraid to insert himself into world events.Vance exploded onto the world’s television screens in February when he triggered a blazing row with Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office, before President Donald Trump jumped in to berate the Ukrainian president too.And it was the former Ohio senator that Trump dispatched to Greenland to back up his extraordinary territorial claims over the Danish-ruled island.Beijing also lashed out at him for saying Washington borrowed money from Chinese “peasants.””In some ways, Vance is in the mold of other vice presidents. He’s unfailingly loyal to the president, knows not to overshadow the boss, and acts as an attack dog,” said Matt Dallek, a professor of political management at George Washington University.But Vance has also made “in-your-face comments that represent something of a departure from his predecessors.”- ‘Disrespectful’ -Nobody quite knew which version of Vance to expect when he started the job.Was he the Vance from his bestselling 2016 memoir “Hillbilly Elegy,” widely viewed as an explainer for the right-wing Rust Belt politics that helped drive Trump’s first election win? Was he the US Marine veteran, the Yale-trained lawyer, the devout Catholic convert, or the tech investor who came later? Or was he indeed the Trump critic who once compared the Republican to Adolf Hitler?But within weeks of taking office it was clear Vance had reinvented himself again — as the ultimate “Make America Great Again” enforcer on the world stage.During his first big foreign trip he launched a withering attack against Europe on culture war issues at the Munich Security Conference, warning there was a “new sheriff in town.”Then in February he proved his fealty to Trump with the Zelensky clash.”Have you said ‘thank you’ once, this entire meeting?” Vance said to Zelensky, calling the Ukrainian leader “disrespectful” before Trump took over.Vance later insisted he had not been the “bad cop” in a premeditated row. – ‘Very lonely’ -But the Zelensky clash reflected Vance’s growing ideological clout in the Trump administration. He has long been hawkishly skeptical on US aid for Ukraine while pushing for Europe to do more for its own defense.Commentators have described him as the most influential vice president since Dick Cheney, who under George W. Bush championed the war in Iraq, where Vance was once deployed.Vance’s key role in the administration burst into the open with the “Signalgate” scandal, when a journalist was mistakenly looped into a group chat about US airstrikes on Yemen’s Huthi rebels.”I just hate bailing out Europe again,” Vance lamented, saying that it was the EU that would benefit most from US military action to stop Huthi attacks on shipping in the Middle East.Then Vance became the frontman for Trump’s claims over Greenland, making a visit that NATO ally Denmark condemned as provocative.”We can’t just ignore the president’s desires,” Vance said during his trip.The world got a rare glimpse during the visit of Usha Vance, his wife and mother of their three children, whom he has credited as steadying influence.Usha Vance admitted in a recent interview that it could be a “very lonely, lonely world” for her husband in his new role.That role is also seen as a natural stepping stone for the highest US office.Vance himself has admitted that he could run for president in the 2028 election, but only after consulting with Trump.Trump however has declined to endorse him just yet — amid speculation that the incumbent could himself somehow defy the US Constitution and run for a third term.”No,” Trump told Fox News’s Bret Baier in February when asked if he viewed Vance as his successor. “But he’s very capable.”

‘Just more powerful’: Trump pushes presidential limits in first 100 days

With Donald Trump back in the White House you never know what you’re going to get. Will he berate a foreign leader? Rock the global markets? Take vengeance against his foes?But there has been one constant behind the chaos of his first 100 days — Trump is pushing US presidential power to almost imperial limits.”I think the second term is just more powerful,” the 78-year-old Republican said during a recent event. “They do it — when I say do it, they do it, right?”Trump has been driven by a sense of grievance left over from an undisciplined first term that ended in the shame of the 2021 US Capitol riots after his election defeat to Joe Biden.And while Trump freed hundreds of those attackers from jail on his first day back in office, he is taking no prisoners when it comes to consolidating the power of the White House.”Trump 2.0 is far more authoritarian-minded and authoritarian in its actions than Trump 1.0,” political historian Matt Dallek of George Washington University told AFP.Trump has also stepped up the sense of an endless reality show in which he is the star, as he signs executive orders and takes questions from reporters in the Oval Office almost daily.That slew of orders has unleashed an unprecedented assault on the cornerstones of American democracy — and on the world order.”We have seen certainly not in modern times such a sustained attack to unwind constitutional safeguards,” added Dallek.- ‘Brazen’ -Controversially aided by Elon Musk, the world’s richest man, Trump has launched a drive to gut a federal government he regards as part of a liberal “deep state.”He has invoked a centuries-old wartime act to deport migrants to a mega prison in El Salvador — while warning that US citizens could be next.He has dug in for a confrontation with judges, and forced a string of punishing deals on law firms involved in previous criminal or civil cases against him.He has cracked down on the media — which he still dubs the “enemy of the people” — and limited access to news outlets covering him at the White House.And he has launched an ideological purge, cutting diversity programs, targeting universities and even installing himself as head of a prestigious arts center.The US Congress, which is meant to have ultimate control over the government’s purse strings, has been sidelined. Republicans have abetted his power grab while crushed Democrats have struggled to muster a response.”We are all afraid,” Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski said recently.”The president appears indifferent to formal — even constitutional — checks on his power,” added Barbara Trish, professor of political science at Grinnell College.On the foreign stage Trump has made territorial claims over Greenland, Panama and Canada — asserting a sphere of influence that echoes Russian President Vladimir Putin’s expansionist bent.Trump is meanwhile backed by a court of true believers. Aides with often fringe views, like vaccine-skeptic health secretary Robert Kennedy, take turns to praise him at cabinet meetings.”Compared to the first term, the president has completely surrounded himself with aides who not only facilitate, but in some cases catalyze, his brazen power moves,” added Trish.- ‘Instinctively’ -But Trump’s comeback has highlighted some familiar themes.Trump is closing out his first three months with approval ratings well below all other post-World War II presidents — except for himself, in his first term, according to Gallup.And there are signs of the same volatile leader the world saw from 2017 to 2021.Trump’s wild televised meltdown in the Oval Office with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky — abetted by hawkish Vice President JD Vance — deeply alarmed allies who were already unnerved by his pivot to Russia.Then there was his introduction of sweeping global tariffs — only to reverse many of them after tanking global markets proved to be the only real check on his power.When asked how he had reached one of his tariff decisions Trump replied: “Just instinctively.” The question now is whether Trump — who at one point referred to himself as “THE KING” on his Truth Social platform — will be willing to give up power.Trump recently said that when he repeatedly mentioned a Constitution-defying third term he was “not joking.”