Budget: après le jeu de pistes, Bayrou à l’heure des choix impossibles

Le Premier ministre François Bayrou dévoile mardi les grandes orientations du budget 2026, un casse-tête financier et politique puisqu’il prévoit un important tour de vis de 40 milliards d’économies, en plus d’augmenter le budget des armées.Qu’importe dans quel sens on s’y prend, résoudre l’équation paraît relever de l’exploit mathématique, tant les marges de manœuvre financières sont réduites.Objectif: ramener le déficit à 4,6% du PIB l’an prochain, contre 5,8% en 2024. Le tout dans un contexte international inflammable et incertain, entre tensions commerciales – Donald Trump a annoncé samedi que les produits l’UE seraient taxés de 30% – et militaires, ce qui a conduit Emmanuel Macron à demander dimanche un effort additionnel de 3,5 milliards d’euros pour la défense. Une enveloppe supplémentaire que le Premier ministre a dû intégrer, promettant auprès de l’AFP de ne “laisser aucune dépense flottante”: “Je ne laisse pas la poussière sous le tapis, surtout des poussières qui se comptent en milliards”.Politiquement, le socle de soutiens du Premier ministre paraît plus friable que jamais. Et chacun sur l’échiquier, à commencer par le Rassemblement national qui se pose en arbitre de la censure, dresse ses lignes rouges, après avoir renversé le gouvernement Barnier à l’automne dernier sur le budget.Autant dire que M. Bayrou, qui s’exprimera à partir de 16H00 entourés de quelques ministres (Eric Lombard, Catherine Vautrin, Amélie de Montchalin, François Rebsamen et Astrid Panosyan-Bouvet), avec des infographies à l’appui, marche sur un fil. Cela revient à “prendre l’Himalaya par la face nord en hiver, et on est en short”, métaphorise un membre du gouvernement.Le Premier ministre, qui concentre son énergie à l’élaboration de ces projets de loi de finances, décline sur tous les registres le “piège mortel” qui guette le pays, face au mur de la dette qui a atteint 114% du PIB en mars. Un combat dont il a fait son ADN politique. – “Plan cohérent” -“Ne pas proposer une réponse de la nation, ça serait une lâcheté vouée aux plus graves accidents”, dit-il à l’AFP.Une dramatisation des enjeux destinée à améliorer l’acceptabilité d’une note qui s’annonce salée, avec 40 milliards d’euros d’effort budgétaire demandés. Mardi, il proposera donc “un plan cohérent, suffisamment précis, même s’il restera à finaliser avec le Parlement, pour que tout le monde mesure la part que chacun doit prendre à cet effort”, appuie-t-il. Avec “deux volets”: l’un tourné vers “un retour à un équilibre supportable des finances publiques”. Et l’autre de “soutien à la production”.L’exécutif a tenté de déminer le terrain en recevant en amont les groupes politiques à Bercy, un travail qui sera réédité en septembre.Surtout, la foire aux idées a été particulièrement florissante. Au point que Bercy a rendu à Matignon “une copie à 45 milliards”, pour “se donner du choix entre des options”, selon un conseiller de l’exécutif.Marmoréen, François Bayrou, qui a présenté vendredi ses intentions à Emmanuel Macron, a promis “des efforts ici ou là” en matière de fiscalité mais pas de hausse d’impôts généralisée. Par exemple, la contribution pour les hauts revenus instaurée l’an dernier devrait être remodelée et reconduite, selon une source ministérielle.- Gisements -L’Etat dans son ensemble devra se serrer la ceinture, engendrant d’importantes baisses de crédits dans les ministères, ainsi que les collectivités.Parmi les pistes tenant la corde, la reconduction à l’identique de certaines dépenses entre 2025 et 2026, sans tenir compte de l’inflation. Une “année blanche” dont le rendement varie selon le périmètre retenu. Ce gel pourrait par exemple s’étendre au barème de l’impôt sur le revenu. Et, suivant de larges appels à mettre à contribution les retraités, les pensions pourraient aussi être désindexées de l’inflation.Des coups de rabot sont aussi évoqués dans différents maquis: les niches fiscales, les aides publiques aux entreprises ou encore dans les agences et opérateurs de l’Etat, dont certains sont voués à la suppression. Suscitant déjà la controverse, un nouveau durcissement des règles de l’assurance chômage se profile, alors qu’Emmanuel Macron a affirmé dimanche qu’il comptait financer l’effort militaire par “plus de production et plus d’activité”. De quoi raviver les spéculations autour d’un relèvement du temps de travail ou la suppression de jours fériés.D’autres gisements d’économies ont été identifiés sur la facture des transports médicalisés, des affections longue durée ou des arrêts maladie.La gauche rêve elle d’obtenir une taxe inspirée par l’économiste français Gabriel Zucman sur les “ultra-riches”, en prélevant 2% par an de leur patrimoine, pour un rendement annuel de 20 milliards d’euros. Une ligne rouge pour le camp macroniste.

Budget: après le jeu de pistes, Bayrou à l’heure des choix impossibles

Le Premier ministre François Bayrou dévoile mardi les grandes orientations du budget 2026, un casse-tête financier et politique puisqu’il prévoit un important tour de vis de 40 milliards d’économies, en plus d’augmenter le budget des armées.Qu’importe dans quel sens on s’y prend, résoudre l’équation paraît relever de l’exploit mathématique, tant les marges de manœuvre financières sont réduites.Objectif: ramener le déficit à 4,6% du PIB l’an prochain, contre 5,8% en 2024. Le tout dans un contexte international inflammable et incertain, entre tensions commerciales – Donald Trump a annoncé samedi que les produits l’UE seraient taxés de 30% – et militaires, ce qui a conduit Emmanuel Macron à demander dimanche un effort additionnel de 3,5 milliards d’euros pour la défense. Une enveloppe supplémentaire que le Premier ministre a dû intégrer, promettant auprès de l’AFP de ne “laisser aucune dépense flottante”: “Je ne laisse pas la poussière sous le tapis, surtout des poussières qui se comptent en milliards”.Politiquement, le socle de soutiens du Premier ministre paraît plus friable que jamais. Et chacun sur l’échiquier, à commencer par le Rassemblement national qui se pose en arbitre de la censure, dresse ses lignes rouges, après avoir renversé le gouvernement Barnier à l’automne dernier sur le budget.Autant dire que M. Bayrou, qui s’exprimera à partir de 16H00 entourés de quelques ministres (Eric Lombard, Catherine Vautrin, Amélie de Montchalin, François Rebsamen et Astrid Panosyan-Bouvet), avec des infographies à l’appui, marche sur un fil. Cela revient à “prendre l’Himalaya par la face nord en hiver, et on est en short”, métaphorise un membre du gouvernement.Le Premier ministre, qui concentre son énergie à l’élaboration de ces projets de loi de finances, décline sur tous les registres le “piège mortel” qui guette le pays, face au mur de la dette qui a atteint 114% du PIB en mars. Un combat dont il a fait son ADN politique. – “Plan cohérent” -“Ne pas proposer une réponse de la nation, ça serait une lâcheté vouée aux plus graves accidents”, dit-il à l’AFP.Une dramatisation des enjeux destinée à améliorer l’acceptabilité d’une note qui s’annonce salée, avec 40 milliards d’euros d’effort budgétaire demandés. Mardi, il proposera donc “un plan cohérent, suffisamment précis, même s’il restera à finaliser avec le Parlement, pour que tout le monde mesure la part que chacun doit prendre à cet effort”, appuie-t-il. Avec “deux volets”: l’un tourné vers “un retour à un équilibre supportable des finances publiques”. Et l’autre de “soutien à la production”.L’exécutif a tenté de déminer le terrain en recevant en amont les groupes politiques à Bercy, un travail qui sera réédité en septembre.Surtout, la foire aux idées a été particulièrement florissante. Au point que Bercy a rendu à Matignon “une copie à 45 milliards”, pour “se donner du choix entre des options”, selon un conseiller de l’exécutif.Marmoréen, François Bayrou, qui a présenté vendredi ses intentions à Emmanuel Macron, a promis “des efforts ici ou là” en matière de fiscalité mais pas de hausse d’impôts généralisée. Par exemple, la contribution pour les hauts revenus instaurée l’an dernier devrait être remodelée et reconduite, selon une source ministérielle.- Gisements -L’Etat dans son ensemble devra se serrer la ceinture, engendrant d’importantes baisses de crédits dans les ministères, ainsi que les collectivités.Parmi les pistes tenant la corde, la reconduction à l’identique de certaines dépenses entre 2025 et 2026, sans tenir compte de l’inflation. Une “année blanche” dont le rendement varie selon le périmètre retenu. Ce gel pourrait par exemple s’étendre au barème de l’impôt sur le revenu. Et, suivant de larges appels à mettre à contribution les retraités, les pensions pourraient aussi être désindexées de l’inflation.Des coups de rabot sont aussi évoqués dans différents maquis: les niches fiscales, les aides publiques aux entreprises ou encore dans les agences et opérateurs de l’Etat, dont certains sont voués à la suppression. Suscitant déjà la controverse, un nouveau durcissement des règles de l’assurance chômage se profile, alors qu’Emmanuel Macron a affirmé dimanche qu’il comptait financer l’effort militaire par “plus de production et plus d’activité”. De quoi raviver les spéculations autour d’un relèvement du temps de travail ou la suppression de jours fériés.D’autres gisements d’économies ont été identifiés sur la facture des transports médicalisés, des affections longue durée ou des arrêts maladie.La gauche rêve elle d’obtenir une taxe inspirée par l’économiste français Gabriel Zucman sur les “ultra-riches”, en prélevant 2% par an de leur patrimoine, pour un rendement annuel de 20 milliards d’euros. Une ligne rouge pour le camp macroniste.

Budget: après le jeu de pistes, Bayrou à l’heure des choix impossibles

Le Premier ministre François Bayrou dévoile mardi les grandes orientations du budget 2026, un casse-tête financier et politique puisqu’il prévoit un important tour de vis de 40 milliards d’économies, en plus d’augmenter le budget des armées.Qu’importe dans quel sens on s’y prend, résoudre l’équation paraît relever de l’exploit mathématique, tant les marges de manœuvre financières sont réduites.Objectif: ramener le déficit à 4,6% du PIB l’an prochain, contre 5,8% en 2024. Le tout dans un contexte international inflammable et incertain, entre tensions commerciales – Donald Trump a annoncé samedi que les produits l’UE seraient taxés de 30% – et militaires, ce qui a conduit Emmanuel Macron à demander dimanche un effort additionnel de 3,5 milliards d’euros pour la défense. Une enveloppe supplémentaire que le Premier ministre a dû intégrer, promettant auprès de l’AFP de ne “laisser aucune dépense flottante”: “Je ne laisse pas la poussière sous le tapis, surtout des poussières qui se comptent en milliards”.Politiquement, le socle de soutiens du Premier ministre paraît plus friable que jamais. Et chacun sur l’échiquier, à commencer par le Rassemblement national qui se pose en arbitre de la censure, dresse ses lignes rouges, après avoir renversé le gouvernement Barnier à l’automne dernier sur le budget.Autant dire que M. Bayrou, qui s’exprimera à partir de 16H00 entourés de quelques ministres (Eric Lombard, Catherine Vautrin, Amélie de Montchalin, François Rebsamen et Astrid Panosyan-Bouvet), avec des infographies à l’appui, marche sur un fil. Cela revient à “prendre l’Himalaya par la face nord en hiver, et on est en short”, métaphorise un membre du gouvernement.Le Premier ministre, qui concentre son énergie à l’élaboration de ces projets de loi de finances, décline sur tous les registres le “piège mortel” qui guette le pays, face au mur de la dette qui a atteint 114% du PIB en mars. Un combat dont il a fait son ADN politique. – “Plan cohérent” -“Ne pas proposer une réponse de la nation, ça serait une lâcheté vouée aux plus graves accidents”, dit-il à l’AFP.Une dramatisation des enjeux destinée à améliorer l’acceptabilité d’une note qui s’annonce salée, avec 40 milliards d’euros d’effort budgétaire demandés. Mardi, il proposera donc “un plan cohérent, suffisamment précis, même s’il restera à finaliser avec le Parlement, pour que tout le monde mesure la part que chacun doit prendre à cet effort”, appuie-t-il. Avec “deux volets”: l’un tourné vers “un retour à un équilibre supportable des finances publiques”. Et l’autre de “soutien à la production”.L’exécutif a tenté de déminer le terrain en recevant en amont les groupes politiques à Bercy, un travail qui sera réédité en septembre.Surtout, la foire aux idées a été particulièrement florissante. Au point que Bercy a rendu à Matignon “une copie à 45 milliards”, pour “se donner du choix entre des options”, selon un conseiller de l’exécutif.Marmoréen, François Bayrou, qui a présenté vendredi ses intentions à Emmanuel Macron, a promis “des efforts ici ou là” en matière de fiscalité mais pas de hausse d’impôts généralisée. Par exemple, la contribution pour les hauts revenus instaurée l’an dernier devrait être remodelée et reconduite, selon une source ministérielle.- Gisements -L’Etat dans son ensemble devra se serrer la ceinture, engendrant d’importantes baisses de crédits dans les ministères, ainsi que les collectivités.Parmi les pistes tenant la corde, la reconduction à l’identique de certaines dépenses entre 2025 et 2026, sans tenir compte de l’inflation. Une “année blanche” dont le rendement varie selon le périmètre retenu. Ce gel pourrait par exemple s’étendre au barème de l’impôt sur le revenu. Et, suivant de larges appels à mettre à contribution les retraités, les pensions pourraient aussi être désindexées de l’inflation.Des coups de rabot sont aussi évoqués dans différents maquis: les niches fiscales, les aides publiques aux entreprises ou encore dans les agences et opérateurs de l’Etat, dont certains sont voués à la suppression. Suscitant déjà la controverse, un nouveau durcissement des règles de l’assurance chômage se profile, alors qu’Emmanuel Macron a affirmé dimanche qu’il comptait financer l’effort militaire par “plus de production et plus d’activité”. De quoi raviver les spéculations autour d’un relèvement du temps de travail ou la suppression de jours fériés.D’autres gisements d’économies ont été identifiés sur la facture des transports médicalisés, des affections longue durée ou des arrêts maladie.La gauche rêve elle d’obtenir une taxe inspirée par l’économiste français Gabriel Zucman sur les “ultra-riches”, en prélevant 2% par an de leur patrimoine, pour un rendement annuel de 20 milliards d’euros. Une ligne rouge pour le camp macroniste.

Pentagon inks contracts for Musk’s xAI, competitors

The Pentagon announced contracts on Monday with multiple leading US artificial intelligence firms including Elon Musk’s xAI, which has faced intense scrutiny in recent days over anti-Semitic posts by its Grok chatbot.Each of the contracts to xAI, Anthropic, Google and OpenAI have a ceiling value of $200 million, the Pentagon’s Chief Digital and Artificial Intelligence Office (CDAO) said in a statement.The awards will enable the Department of Defense “to leverage the technology and talent of US frontier AI companies to develop agentic AI workflows across a variety of mission areas,” it said.The contract with xAI comes just days after the company was forced to apologize again for controversial posts by its Grok chatbot.After an update on July 7, the chatbot praised Adolf Hitler in some responses on the X social media platform, denounced “anti-white hate,” and described Jewish representation in Hollywood as “disproportionate.”xAI apologized for the extremist and offensive messages, and said it had corrected the instructions that led to the incidents.The release on Wednesday of Grok 4, the latest chatbot version, was almost met with scrutiny after it appeared to consult Musk’s positions on some questions it was asked before responding.The contract between xAI and the Department of Defense comes even as Musk and President Donald Trump have publicly feuded in recent weeks.Musk, a top backer of Trump’s most recent presidential campaign, was entrusted with managing the new agency known as DOGE to massively slash government spending under the current administration.After ending his assignment in May, the South African-born entrepreneur publicly criticized Trump’s major budget bill for increasing government debt. The president and the businessman engaged in heated exchanges on social media and in public statements before Musk apologized for some of his more combative messages.- ‘Critical national security needs’ -The government and the defense sector are considered a potential growth driver for AI giants.Musk’s xAI announced on Monday the launch of a “Grok for Government” service, following a similar initiative by OpenAI.In addition to the Pentagon contract, “every federal government department, agency, or office (can now) purchase xAI products” thanks to its inclusion on an official supplier list, xAI said.Meta meanwhile has partnered with the start-up Anduril to develop virtual reality headsets for soldiers and law enforcement.OpenAI had previously announced in June that it had secured a Defense Department contract with a ceiling of $200 million.”Establishing these partnerships will broaden DoD use of and experience in frontier AI capabilities and increase the ability of these companies to understand and address critical national security needs with the most advanced AI capabilities U.S. industry has to offer,” said the CDAO statement on Monday.

W. Virginia villagers take on AI-driven power plant boom

Al Tomson, mayor of a tiny town tucked away in an idyllic corner of the eastern United States, points to a spot on a map of his region.”The power plant would be there,” says the former military man, who is fighting against construction of the mysterious project on the outskirts of Davis, designed to power a vast data center.Tomson, whose town is about a three-hour drive from Washington and is home to 600 people, says the plant is being “crammed down our throats” by the state government. This fight in the woods of rural West Virginia is the latest example of the war between the US tech sector — and its rapidly rising need for energy to power the AI boom — and the communities it affects.In a scramble to quickly bring more data centers online, US cloud computing giants are now getting directly involved in energy production. And while they are using some renewable energy options and trying to revive nuclear power, they are also turning to fossil fuels like gas, which in the United States is relatively cheap.In neighboring Pennsylvania, a former coal plant will now run on gas to power a data center.In Georgia, xAI, the Elon Musk-owned company behind the Grok chatbot, directly connected 35 methane turbines to its servers, all without permits, according to the Southern Environmental Law Center NGO.Data centers’ share of US electricity demand is expected to rise from current levels of around five percent to between 6.7 percent and 12 percent by 2028, according to government estimates.- Powerlessness -The US electrical grid is facing demand growth “that we haven’t seen for more than a generation,” says Todd Snitchler, head of the Electric Power Supply Association, which represents many producers.To respond, they are acting on all fronts. Across the country, the retirement of old power plants is being postponed and additional turbines are being added while waiting for new plants to be built.But AI’s thirst for energy is such that more and more tech giants are building their own power plants off the grid — even if it means doing so against residents’ wishes.In Davis, the mayor and hundreds of his constituents have been fighting since April against Fundamental Data’s power plant project. For Mayor Tomson, the firm is just a “shell company” laying the early groundwork on behalf of an unidentified major tech company. Fundamental Data did not respond to multiple requests for comment from AFP.In the mayor’s office hangs a printed map showing that the gas turbines, with their toxic emissions, would be located about a mile from residents of this nature-blessed tourist town.But Tomson feels powerless. West Virginia recently adopted a law that, in order to attract billions of dollars in data center investment, prohibits local officials from taking measures opposing them.- Global competition -The frustration of Davis residents boiled over during a particularly tense public meeting at the end of June. For five hours, about 300 people attended the meeting with regulators responsible for approving an initial air quality permit, which is likely to be granted.Afterward, volunteers distributed “No data center complex” signs to install in people’s front yards. Some were already posted in shop windows.Davis’s residents say they just want to keep their corner of the Appalachians free from pollution — but there are powerful political and economic forces against them.”A failure to power the data centers needed to win the AI arms race… could result in adversary nations shaping digital norms and controlling digital infrastructure, thereby jeopardizing US economic and national security,” warned a recent US Department of Energy report.Some in Davis and West Virginia favor these projects, seeing them as an opportunity to re-industrialize an economically devastated region. The proposed plant would be built on the site of a former coal mine, for example.Since mining jobs left, “we need something here to keep our younger people,” said Charles Davis, who lives in nearby Thomas.Jojo Pregley, however, wants nothing to do with it. “A lot of people are battling cancer here,” she says, sitting on a bench in front of her house with her husband Pat, who spent 40 years working in the mines. “We don’t want more pollution from data centers or whatever else.”

Tech giants scramble to meet AI’s looming energy crisis

The artificial intelligence industry is scrambling to reduce its massive energy consumption through better cooling systems, more efficient computer chips, and smarter programming — all while AI usage explodes worldwide.AI depends entirely on data centers, which could consume three percent of the world’s electricity by 2030, according to the International Energy Agency. That’s double what they use today.Experts at McKinsey, a US consulting firm, describe a race to build enough data centers to keep up with AI’s rapid growth, while warning that the world is heading toward an electricity shortage.”There are several ways of solving the problem,” explained Mosharaf Chowdhury, a University of Michigan professor of computer science.Companies can either build more energy supply — which takes time and the AI giants are already scouring the globe to do — or figure out how to consume less energy for the same computing power.Chowdhury believes the challenge can be met with “clever” solutions at every level, from the physical hardware to the AI software itself.For example, his lab has developed algorithms that calculate exactly how much electricity each AI chip needs, reducing energy use by 20-30 percent.- ‘Clever’ solutions -Twenty years ago, operating a data center — encompassing cooling systems and other infrastructure — required as much energy as running the servers themselves. Today, operations use just 10 percent of what the servers consume, says Gareth Williams from consulting firm Arup. This is largely through this focus on energy efficiency.Many data centers now use AI-powered sensors to control temperature in specific zones rather than cooling entire buildings uniformly.This allows them to optimize water and electricity use in real-time, according to McKinsey’s Pankaj Sachdeva.For many, the game-changer will be liquid cooling, which replaces the roar of energy-hungry air conditioners with a coolant that circulates directly through the servers.”All the big players are looking at it,” Williams said.This matters because modern AI chips from companies like Nvidia consume 100 times more power than servers did two decades ago.Amazon’s world-leading cloud computing business, AWS, last week said it had developed its own liquid method to cool down Nvidia GPUs in its servers – – avoiding have to rebuild existing data centers.”There simply wouldn’t be enough liquid-cooling capacity to support our scale,” Dave Brown, vice president of compute and machine learning services at AWS, said in a YouTube video.- US vs China -For McKinsey’s Sachdeva, a reassuring factor is that each new generation of computer chips is more energy-efficient than the last.Research by Purdue University’s Yi Ding has shown that AI chips can last longer without losing performance.”But it’s hard to convince semiconductor companies to make less money” by encouraging customers to keep using the same equipment longer, Ding added.Yet even if more efficiency in chips and energy consumption is likely to make AI cheaper, it won’t reduce total energy consumption.”Energy consumption will keep rising,” Ding predicted, despite all efforts to limit it. “But maybe not as quickly.”In the United States, energy is now seen as key to keeping the country’s competitive edge over China in AI.In January, Chinese startup DeepSeek unveiled an AI model that performed as well as top US systems despite using less powerful chips — and by extension, less energy.DeepSeek’s engineers achieved this by programming their GPUs more precisely and skipping an energy-intensive training step that was previously considered essential.China is also feared to be leagues ahead of the US in available energy sources, including from renewables and nuclear.

Trump sours on Putin, but bromance may not be over

Ever since his political rise a decade ago, Donald Trump has sung the praises of Vladimir Putin — the Russian president was a “strong leader” who, perhaps more important, would often say “very good things” about him.With his announcement Monday of new arms for Ukraine via Europe and tariff threats on Russia, Trump’s bromance with Putin has hit a new low — but it may not have run its course.Trump, who had vowed to end the Ukraine war within a day of returning to the White House, said he was “disappointed” in Putin, who has kept attacking Ukraine as if the leaders’ telephone conversations “didn’t mean anything.””I go home, I tell the first lady, ‘You know, I spoke to Vladimir today, we had a wonderful conversation. She said, ‘Oh really? Another city was just hit.'””I don’t want to say he’s an assassin, but he’s a tough guy. It’s been proven over the years. He’s fooled a lot of people,” Trump said.Trump quickly rejected that he was among those fooled and again insisted that the 2022 invasion of Ukraine was the fault of his predecessor Joe Biden, who championed a hard line on Russia.Brandishing his favorite weapon, Trump gave Russia 50 days to comply before facing 100 percent tariffs on countries that purchase from Russia, but stopped short of backing a bill before Congress for up to 500 percent tariffs.Russia’s own trade with the United States has slowed down a trickle.Trump had “promised that he could get Putin to the negotiating table, and he has failed to do that,” said Heather Conley, a former State Department policymaker on Russia now at the conservative American Enterprise Institute.His tariff threat “shows frustration that he has failed to do it, but I don’t see it as a big policy change,” she said.- The great deal-maker? -Trump stunned European allies on February 28 when he publicly berated Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House, telling him he was ungrateful for billions of dollars in weapons under Biden. Trump then briefly held up new military and intelligence.For the US president, a transactional-minded businessman, Putin committed a key offense — undermining Trump’s self-image as a deal-maker.”For six months, President Trump tried to entice Putin to the table. The attacks have gone up, not down,” Senator Lindsey Graham, a Trump ally who has led the push for tough new sanctions on Russia, told CBS News show “Face The Nation.””One of the biggest miscalculations Putin has made is to play Trump,” Graham said.Yet Trump has repeatedly shown a willingness to trust Putin, despite firm warnings from within the US government.Most famously, he sided with Putin over US intelligence at a 2018 news conference after they met in Helsinki after the Russian president denied meddling to support Trump in his first election.For observers of Putin, the longest-serving leader in Moscow since Stalin, there was never much chance he would accept compromise on Ukraine or work with the West.Putin has rued the demise of Russia’s influence with the fall of the Soviet Union as a historic calamity and rejected the idea that Ukraine has its own historical identity.With Russia making small but steady gains on the battlefield and bringing in North Korean troops, Putin has put his entire country on war footing, Conley said.”The Kremlin has thrown everything into this,” she said.”President Putin believes that this is just going to be a slow erosion of Ukraine’s position and the West’s position, and he will win this conflict on its own merits,” she said.Mark Montgomery, a retired US rear admiral and Senate policy aide, said Putin believed in what has been referred to as TACO — Trump Always Chickens Out.Putin “thought he could take it to the limit each time, and he found out he was wrong,” said Montgomery, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a hawkish research group.”I don’t think this stops until Putin feels either weapons system pain or economic pain that he cannot sustain.”

Supreme Court allows Trump to resume Education Department dismantling

A divided US Supreme Court gave President Donald Trump the green light on Monday to resume dismantling the Education Department.The conservative-dominated court, in an unsigned order, lifted a stay that had been placed by a federal district judge on mass layoffs at the department.The three liberal justices on the nine-member panel dissented.Trump pledged during his White House campaign to eliminate the Education Department, which was created by an act of Congress in 1979, and he moved in March to slash its workforce by nearly half.Trump instructed Education Secretary Linda McMahon to “put herself out of a job.”Around 20 states joined teachers’ unions in challenging the move in court, arguing that the Republican president was violating the principle of separation of powers by encroaching on Congress’s prerogatives.In May, District Judge Myong Joun ordered the reinstatement of hundreds of fired Education Department employees.The Supreme Court lifted the judge’s order without explanation, just days after another ruling that cleared the way for Trump to carry out mass firings of federal workers in other government departments.Justice Sonia Sotomayor, in a dissent joined by justices Elena Kagan and Ketanji Brown Jackson, said in the Education ruling that “only Congress has the power to abolish the Department.””The majority is either willfully blind to the implications of its ruling or naive, but either way the threat to our Constitution’s separation of powers is grave,” Sotomayor said.Traditionally, the federal government has had a limited role in education in the United States, with only about 13 percent of funding for primary and secondary schools coming from federal coffers, the rest being funded by states and local communities.But federal funding is invaluable for low-income schools and students with special needs. And the federal government has been essential in enforcing key civil rights protections for students.After returning to the White House in January, Trump directed federal agencies to prepare sweeping workforce reduction plans as part of wider efforts by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) — previously headed by Elon Musk — to downsize the government.Trump has moved to fire tens of thousands of government employees and slash programs — targeting diversity initiatives and abolishing the Education Department, the US humanitarian aid agency USAID and others.

Syrian forces advance on Sweida as Druze leader says truce talks underway

Syrian government forces were advancing towards the southern city of Sweida on Monday to quell deadly clashes between Druze fighters and Bedouin tribes, with one Druze armed group saying talks with authorities aimed at brokering a truce were underway.The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights war monitor reported 99 people killed since the fighting erupted on Sunday — 60 Druze, including four civilians, 18 Bedouin fighters, 14 security personnel and seven unidentified people in military uniforms.As the violence escalated, Israel — which has previously warned it would intervene in Syria to protect the Druze — said it struck “several tanks” in the area as a “warning” to DamascusAn AFP correspondent saw Syrian forces on Monday take control of the Druze village of Al-Mazraa, where Bedouin fighters were also located.A commander, Ezzeddine al-Shamayer, told AFP the forces “are heading toward Sweida” city.In a statement, the interior ministry declared that “army and internal security forces have moved closer to the centre” of Sweida province.Bassem Fakhr, spokesperson for the Men of Dignity movement, one of the largest Druze factions in Sweida, told AFP talks were “underway between the notables of the city of Sweida and representatives of the general security (forces) and the defence ministry to reach a solution”.Druze religious authorities had called on Monday evening for a ceasefire in the area, saying they were not opposed to the Syrian central government.But Sheikh Hikmat al-Hijri, one of the three Druze spiritual leaders in Sweida, expressed his “rejection of the entry” of general security forces into the province, demanding “international protection”.Israel — which also has a Druze population, and has previously attacked Syria in purported defence of the group — reported hitting several tanks heading towards Sweida on Monday.The strikes were “a clear warning to the Syrian regime — we will not allow harm to be done to the Druze in Syria”, Defence Minister Israel Katz posted on X.- Fear of massacres -The fighting in the south underscores the challenges facing interim leader Ahmad al-Sharaa, whose Islamist forces ousted president Bashar al-Assad in December after nearly 14 years of civil war.Syria’s pre-war Druze population was estimated at around 700,000, many of them concentrated in Sweida province.The Druze, followers of an esoteric religion that split from Shiite Islam, are mainly found in Syria, Lebanon and Israel.Following deadly clashes with government forces in April and May, local and religious leaders reached an agreement with Damascus under which Druze fighters have been providing security in the province.The streets of Sweida were deserted Monday, with an AFP photographer reporting distant gunfire during funerals.”We lived in a state of extreme terror — the shells were falling randomly,” said Abu Taym, a 51-year-old father, adding “most shops are closed”.”We fear a repeat of the coastal scenario,” said Amal, 46, referring to massacres in March of more than 1,700 mostly Alawite civilians in northwest Syria, where groups affiliated with the government were blamed for most of the killings.”We are not against the state, but we are against surrendering our weapons without a state that treats everyone the same,” she added.In a post on X, Syrian Defence Minister Murhaf Abu Qasra urged his troops to “protect your fellow citizens” from “outlaw gangs”, and to “restore stability to Sweida”.- ‘Lack of state institutions’ -The violence began on Sunday when Bedouin gunmen abducted a Druze vegetable vendor on the highway to Damascus, prompting retaliatory kidnappings.Though hostages were later released, the fighting carried on Monday outside Sweida city, with mortar fire hitting villages and dozens wounded, according to the Suwayda 24 news outlet.In a Sunday post on X, Interior Minister Anas Khattab said “the lack of state, military and security institutions is a major reason” for the ongoing tensions in Sweida.The Observatory said members of Bedouin tribes, who are Sunni Muslims, had sided with security forces during earlier confrontations with the Druze.Bedouin and Druze factions have a longstanding feud in Sweida, and violence occasionally erupts between the two sides.The wave of coastal massacres in March targeting the Alawite community and the subsequent attacks on Druze areas, as well as a deadly attack on a Damascus church in June, have undermined confidence in the new Syrian authorities’ ability to protect minorities.str-lk-at-mam/nad/smw