A week before US President Donald Trump reimposes steep tariffs on dozens of economies, including the EU and Japan, many are still scrambling to reach a deal that would protect them from the worst.The tariffs taking effect July 9 are part of a package Trump imposed in April citing a lack of “reciprocity” in trading ties.He slapped a 10 percent levy on most partners, with higher customized rates to kick in later in countries the United States has major trade deficits with.But these were halted until July to allow room for negotiations.Analysts expect countries will encounter one of three outcomes: They could reach a framework for an agreement; receive an extended pause on higher tariffs; or see levies surge.- ‘Framework’ deals -“There will be a group of deals that we will land before July 9,” said Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent last Friday on CNBC.Policymakers have not named countries in this group, although Bessent maintains that Washington has been focused on striking deals with about 18 key partners.”Vietnam, India and Taiwan remain promising candidates for a deal,” Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI) vice president Wendy Cutler told AFP.Without a deal, Vietnam’s “reciprocal tariff” rises from the baseline of 10 percent to 46 percent, India’s to 26 percent and Taiwan’s to 32 percent.Josh Lipsky, international economics chair at the Atlantic Council, cited Indian negotiators’ extension of their US trip recently in noting that it “seems like a frontrunner.””Japan was in that category, but things have set back a little,” Lipsky said, referring to Trump’s criticism Monday over what the president called Japan’s reluctance to accept US rice exports.The deals, however, will unlikely be full-fledged trade pacts, analysts said, citing complexities in negotiating such agreements.Since April, Washington has only announced a pact with Britain and a deal to temporarily lower tit-for-tat duties with China.- Extended pause -Bessent has also said that countries “negotiating in good faith” can have their tariffs remain at the 10 percent baseline.But extensions of the pause on higher rates would depend on Trump, he added.”With a new government, (South) Korea looks well positioned to secure an extension,” Cutler of ASPI said.Lipsky expects many countries to fall into this bucket, receiving an extended halt on higher tariffs that could last until Labor Day, which falls on September 1.Bessent earlier said that Washington could wrap up its agenda for trade deals by Labor Day, a signal that more agreements could be concluded but with talks likely to extend past July.- Tariff reimposition -For countries that the United States finds “recalcitrant,” however, tariffs could spring back to the higher levels Trump previously announced, Bessent has warned.These range from 11 percent to 50 percent.Cutler warned that “Japan’s refusal to open its rice market, coupled with the US resistance to lowering automotive tariffs, may lead to the reimposition of Japan’s 24 percent reciprocal tariff.”Trump himself said Tuesday that a trade deal was unlikely with Japan and the country could pay a tariff of “30 percent, 35 percent, or whatever the number is that we determine.”Lipsky believes the European Union is at risk of having tariffs snap back to steeper levels too — to the 20 percent unveiled in April or the 50 percent Trump more recently threatened.An area of tension could be Europe’s approach to digital regulation.Trump recently said he would terminate trade talks with Canada — which is not impacted by the July 9 deadline — in retaliation for the country’s digital services tax, which Ottawa eventually said it would rescind.This week, EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic is in Washington in a push to seal a trade deal, with the EU commission having received early drafts of proposals that officials are working on.

The United States, Japan, India and Australia pledged Tuesday to work together to ensure a stable supply of critical minerals, as worries grow over China’s dominance in resources vital to new technologies.US Secretary of State Marco Rubio welcomed his counterparts from the so-called “Quad” to Washington in a shift of focus to Asia, after spending much of his first six months on the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East and on President Donald Trump’s domestic priorities such as migration.The four countries said in a joint statement that they were establishing the Quad Critical Minerals Initiative, aimed at “collaborating on securing and diversifying” supply chains.They offered little detail but made clear the goal was to reduce reliance on China, which has used restrictions as leverage as the United States in turn curbs its access to semiconductors and as Trump threatens steep tariffs — including on Quad countries.”Reliance on any one country for processing and refining critical minerals and derivative goods production exposes our industries to economic coercion, price manipulation and supply chain disruptions,” the statement said.The ministers were careful not to mention China by name but voiced “serious concerns regarding dangerous and provocative actions” in the South China Sea and East China Sea that “threaten peace and stability in the region.”China holds major reserves of several key minerals including the vast majority of the world’s graphite, which is crucial for electric vehicles.In brief remarks alongside the other ministers, Rubio said he has “personally been very focused” on diversifying supply chains and wanted “real progress.”- US refocus on Asia -The four-way partnership was first conceived by late Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe, who saw an alliance of democracies surrounding China — which has repeatedly alleged that the Quad is a way to contain it.Rubio had welcomed the Quad foreign ministers on January 21 in his first meeting after Trump’s inauguration, seen as a sign the new administration would prioritize engagement with like-minded countries to counter China.But to the surprise of many, China has not topped the early agenda of Trump, who has spoken respectfully about his counterpart Xi Jinping and reached a truce with Beijing to avoid a wider trade war between the world’s two largest economies.Trump is expected to travel to India later this year for a Quad summit. Both the Indian and Japanese foreign ministers said that they wanted the Quad to focus on a “free and open Indo-Pacific” — a phrasing that is a veiled allusion to opposing Chinese dominance in Asia.”It is essential that nations of the Indo-Pacific have the freedom of choice, so essential to make right decisions on development and security,” Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said.At Jaishankar’s urging, the Quad condemned a May attack on the Indian side of Kashmir that killed mostly Hindu civilians and called for “the perpetrators, organizers and financiers of this reprehensible act to be brought to justice without any delay.”India in May launched air strikes in Pakistan, which it blamed for the attack. Pakistan denied responsibility and responded with its own attacks on the Indian military.In a key concern for Japan, the Quad condemned North Korea for its “destabilizing launches” of missiles and insisted on its “complete denuclearization.”Trump, in one of the most startling moves of his first term, met with North Korea’s reclusive leader Kim Jong Un, helping ease tensions but producing no lasting agreement.Despite common ground on China, Quad members have differed on other hotspots, with the joint statement not mentioning Ukraine or Iran.India has maintained its long relationship with Russia despite the invasion of Ukraine, while both India and Japan also have historically enjoyed cordial ties with Iran.

A son of Mexican drug kingpin Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman has agreed to plead guilty to drug trafficking in the United States as part of a plea deal, court documents show.Ovidio Guzman is accused of conspiring to ship cocaine, fentanyl, heroin, methamphetamine and marijuana into the United States, via a faction of the notorious Sinaloa Cartel founded by his father.Federal court documents dated June 30 and signed by Ovidio Guzman, alias “Raton” (Mouse), say he wishes to plead guilty to settle the case and to waive trial in Illinois, where he is being held. According to documents from the Chicago court hearing his case, a plea hearing is scheduled for July 9 before Judge Sharon Johnson Coleman. After that hearing, the judge will sentence him at a date yet to be determined.US authorities accuse Ovidio and his three brothers of leading Los Chapitos, a faction of the Sinaloa Cartel designated by the Trump administration as a global “terrorist” organization. The United States accuses the four of trafficking fentanyl into the United States, where the opioid epidemic is linked to tens of thousands of deaths.Ovidio Guzman was extradited to the United States in 2023 to face narcotics charges, joining his father, one of the world’s most infamous drug traffickers, who is serving a life sentence in a US prison.The Sinaloa cartel is one of six Mexican drug trafficking groups designated terrorist organizations by US President Donald Trump.Another son, Joaquin Guzman Lopez, was arrested after arriving in the United States last July in a private plane with cartel co-founder Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada, who claimed he had been kidnapped.The arrests sparked cartel infighting that has left more than 1,200 people dead and 1,400 missing in Sinaloa state, located in northwestern Mexico.On Monday, the bodies of 20 people, several of them decapitated, were found on a highway bridge in a part of Mexico where factions of the Sinaloa drug cartel are fighting, authorities said.