AFP - Squid Business

Iranian pilgrims in Iraq long to return home

After filing out of their buses in the central Iraqi town of Ayn Tamr on Tuesday, Iranian pilgrims anxiously sought out internet connections, desperate for word from their loved ones back home.The more than 400 Iranians had recently completed their hajj pilgrimage to Mecca in Saudi Arabia, and since crossing the border by land into Iraq, they had not received any updates.One woman dressed in black collapsed in tears after receiving a message informing her that her son was missing after Israeli strikes on Tehran, and that her son-in-law — an official killed in a bombardment — had been laid to rest in her absence.Other women sighed with relief when they finally connected with children and grandchildren via video call.”We fear for our children,” Amna Hammudi said, her voice trembling, before finally managing to reach her kids in Iran after two days of silence.”We are all worried about our families, our cities and our country,” the mother of four added.In a parking lot in Ayn Tamr, near the Shiite holy city of Karbala, 10 buses wait for permission to transport the pilgrims to the Mehran border crossing between Iraq and Iran.- ‘They brought war on us’ -Iraq is expected to receive 76,000 Iranian pilgrims by land after they were stranded in Saudi Arabia by airport closures following the surprise Israeli attack on Iran last week.It will welcome 2,500 Iranian pilgrims a day in the hope of facilitating their return home, according to Sami al-Massudi, the head of the Iraqi body for pilgrims to Saudi Arabia.Aziz Yussef, 55, said he was still in Saudi Arabia when he learned that a strike hit one kilometre (0.6 miles) from his house in the western city of Kermanshah.”They brought war on us. They are not only fighting us, but also Gaza and Syria, and the Americans are not stopping them,” Yussef said.Yussef urged the Iraqi government to speed up the process of getting pilgrims like him home, but even if he crosses into Iran, he doesn’t know how he will reach Kermanshah.Whenever an internet connection is available, Yussef and his wife are glued to their phones and the television, hoping for good news.- ‘God knows’ -On Friday, Israel launched a surprise attack on its arch foe Iran, hitting military and nuclear facilities and killing top commanders and atomic scientists.It has kept up its bombing campaign since then, with at least 224 people killed in strikes, according to Iranian authorities. Iran has responded with multiple missile salvos targeting Israeli cities, killing at least 24 people there, according to the prime minister’s office.Residential areas in both countries have suffered deadly strikes, and large numbers of people have fled Iran’s capital.US President Donald Trump warned early Tuesday that Tehran residents should “immediately evacuate” amid fears of a broader conflict that could engulf the region.Kadir Ansari, 70, had just contacted his family back home. “They are good,” he said with relief.In residential areas, “there are no armies and no bombs. You are sleeping, and they hit you,” he added.Ansari was still in Medina in Saudi Arabia when he learned about the Israeli assault, and now he fears what may come next.Nonetheless, he insists on going back to Kermanshah.”God knows” what will happen after that, he said.

How much damage has Israel inflicted on Iran’s nuclear programme?

Israel’s strikes on Iran have targeted several of its nuclear facilities as it claims the country is seeking to develop nuclear weapons — an accusation Tehran denies.Experts told AFP that while the attacks had caused some damage to Iran’s nuclear programme, they are unlikely to have delivered a fatal blow.Here is an update on Iran’s nuclear sites as of Tuesday.- What is the extent of the damage? -Israel’s operation included strikes on Iran’s underground uranium enrichment sites at Natanz and Fordow, and on its Isfahan nuclear site, the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said, citing Iranian officials.A key, above-ground component of Iran’s Natanz nuclear site has been destroyed, including its power infrastructure, the IAEA reported Monday.The UN watchdog added Tuesday that satellite images indicated possible “direct impacts” on the underground section of the plant, where thousands of centrifuges are operating to enrich uranium.At the underground Fordow enrichment plant, Iran’s second uranium enrichment facility, the IAEA said it observed “no damage” following the attacks. At the Isfahan nuclear site, however, “four buildings were damaged” — the central chemical laboratory, a uranium conversion plant, the Tehran reactor fuel manufacturing plant, and a metal processing facility under construction, the IAEA said.Significant uranium stockpiles are believed to be stored around the Isfahan site.Ali Vaez, the International Crisis Group’s Iran project director, told AFP that if Iran managed to transfer significant quantities to “secret facilities,” then “the game is lost for Israel”.Iran’s only nuclear power plant, the Bushehr plant, was not targeted, nor was the Tehran research reactor.- Can the programme be destroyed? -While “Israel can damage Iran’s nuclear programme… it is unlikely to be able to destroy it,” Vaez said, saying that Israel did not have the massively powerful bombs needed “to destroy the fortified, bunkered facilities in Natanz and Fordow”.Destroying those would require US military assistance, added Kelsey Davenport, an expert with the Arms Control Association.She also noted that Israel’s unprecedented attack would not erase the expertise Iran had built up on nuclear weapons, despite killing nine Iranian nuclear scientists.- What are the risks to the Iranian population? -The IAEA has not detected any increase in radiation levels at the affected sites.”There is very little risk that attacks on Iran’s uranium enrichment facilities would result in a harmful radiation release,” Davenport said.But an attack on the Bushehr plant could “have a serious impact on health and the environment”, she said. After Israel launched its strikes, IAEA chief Rafael Grossi said that nuclear facilities “must never be attacked” and that targeting Iranian sites could have “grave consequences for the people of Iran, the region, and beyond”.- Is Iran close to developing a nuclear bomb? -After the United States under President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew in 2018 from a landmark deal that sought to curb Tehran’s nuclear activities, Iran has gradually retreated from some of its obligations, particularly on uranium enrichment.As of mid-May, the country had an estimated 408.6 kilogrammes (900 pounds) enriched to up to 60 percent — just a short step from the 90 percent needed for a nuclear warhead.Iran theoretically has enough near-weapons-grade material, if further refined, for about 10 nuclear bombs, according to the definition by the Vienna-based IAEA.Iran is the only non-nuclear-armed state producing uranium to this level of enrichment, according to the UN nuclear watchdog.- How much damage has Israel inflicted on Iran’s nuclear programme? -While the IAEA has been critical of Iran’s lack of cooperation with the UN body, it says there are “no credible indications of an ongoing, undeclared structured nuclear programme”.Tehran has consistently denied ambitions to develop nuclear warheads.But Davenport warned that the strikes could strengthen factions in Iran advocating for an atomic arsenal.”Israel’s strikes set Iran back technically, but politically the strikes are pushing Iran closer to nuclear weapons,” she said.

Trump says wants ‘real end’ to Israel-Iran conflict, not ceasefire

US President Donald Trump said he wants a “real end” to the conflict between Israel and Iran, not just a ceasefire, as the arch foes traded fire for a fifth day on Tuesday.Israeli warplanes targeted dozens of missile launchers in western Iran and killed a senior commander, the military said, drawing retaliatory fire from the Islamic republic.Explosions were heard over Tel Aviv and Jerusalem shortly after sirens sounded in many parts of Israel warning of incoming missiles, with the military warning of another barrage in the afternoon.Israeli police reported that debris fell in the central Tel Aviv area and the fire brigade said it was tackling a blaze.The Israeli military said it killed senior Iranian commander Ali Shadmani in an overnight strike on a “command centre in the heart of Tehran”, just four days after his predecessor, Gholam Ali Rashid, was killed in Israel’s surprise attack.Israel also said it targeted multiple missile and drone sites in western Iran overnight and again later on Tuesday, with black-and-white footage showing some of them exploding.Despite mounting calls to de-escalate, neither side has backed off from the missile blitz that began Friday, when Israel launched an unprecedented aerial campaign targeting Iranian nuclear and military facilities.A new wave of Israeli strikes on Tehran — including a dramatic hit on state television headquarters that the broadcaster said killed three people — prompted both sides to activate missile defence systems overnight.Iranian media reported several explosions in the central city of Isfahan, home to a key nuclear facility.Residential areas in both countries have suffered, while foreign government scrambled to evacuate their citizens.A cyberattack on Tuesday crippled Sepah Bank, one of Iran’s main state-owned banks, the Fars news agency reported.- ‘Complete give-up’ -Trump said on Tuesday that he wanted a “complete give-up” by Iran in return for peace, without elaborating on the outcome he seeks.”I’m not looking for a ceasefire, we’re looking at better than a ceasefire,” he told reporters after cutting short his attendance at a Group of Seven summit in Canada.Trump, who has said Washington was not involved in Israel’s initial strikes, again warned Iran against targeting US troops and assets in the Middle East, saying “we’ll come down so hard, it’d be gloves off”.The US president had earlier issued an extraordinary warning on his Truth Social platform, saying: “Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!”Fearing the violence, many residents have fled Tehran since Friday.On Tuesday, long queues stretched outside bakeries and petrol stations as the remaining residents rushed to stock up on fuel and basic supplies.Security checkpoints have been set up across Tehran, adding to the atmosphere of tension as authorities monitor movement in and out of key districts.Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth said the United States was deploying “additional capabilities” to the Middle East, with a US aircraft carrier reportedly heading to the region.China accused Trump of “pouring oil” on the conflict.”Making threats and mounting pressure will not help to promote the de-escalation of the situation, but will only intensify and widen the conflict,” said foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun.At the G7 summit, leaders including Trump called Monday for “de-escalation” while stressing Israel had the right to defend itself and that “Iran can never have a nuclear weapon”.- Iran ‘will continue’ -After decades of enmity and a prolonged shadow war, Israel said its surprise air campaign aimed to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons — an ambition Tehran denies.The UN nuclear watchdog said there appear to have been “direct impacts on the underground enrichment halls” at Iran’s Natanz facility.Israel has maintained ambiguity regarding its own atomic activities, but the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) says it has 90 nuclear warheads.The escalation has derailed nuclear talks between Tehran and Washington and stoked fears of broader conflict.At least 24 people have been killed in Israel and hundreds wounded, according to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office.Iran said on Sunday that Israeli strikes had killed at least 224 people, including military commanders, nuclear scientists and civilians. It has not issued an updated toll since then.Netanyahu said Israel was “changing the face of the Middle East, and that can lead to radical changes inside Iran itself”.After several rounds of talks on Tehran’s nuclear programme in recent weeks, Iran said after the start of Israel’s campaign that it would not negotiate with the United States while under attack.Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Monday that “absent a total cessation of military aggression against us, our responses will continue”.Iranian state television said the Tel Aviv headquarters of Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency was among the Revolutionary Guards’ targets.burs-dv/ami/kir

Conclave sur les retraites: les blocages demeurent

A quelques heures de la fin prévue du conclave sur les retraites, impulsé par François Bayrou, les négociations entre partenaires sociaux ne progressent pas, ont indiqué mardi les participants à la mi-journée, avant de reprendre les débats en début d’après-midi.La négociation “n’a pas avancé”, a déploré juste avant la pause déjeuner Yvan Ricordeau, le représentant de la CFDT, qui a agité le spectre d’un échec.”Je ne sais pas comment ça va se terminer cet après-midi, mais si l’heure du déjeuner ne permet pas au patronat de revenir à une situation un peu plus humaine, je pense que ce (mardi) soir on va avoir un problème”, a aussi regretté à ce moment Pascale Coton, la représentante de la CFTC.”On n’est pas d’accord sur… tout”, a renchéri Christelle Thieffine, négociatrice de la CFE-CGC au retour de son déjeuner. Les négociations ont repris en début d’après-midi, avec une fin théoriquement prévue dans la soirée. Pour tenter de mettre de l’huile dans les rouages, le Premier ministre, François Bayrou, s’est dit prêt lundi à accorder “quelques jours de plus” aux cinq participants encore présents: CFDT, CFTC, CFE-CGC côté syndical, Medef et CPME côté patronal. Mais les syndicats ont martelé qu’ils ne souhaitaient pas poursuivre les discussions si le Medef, principal représentant patronal, ne mettait pas sur la table de nouvelles propositions.- “Insupportable pour nous” -Les syndicats veulent en particulier obtenir que la pénibilité et l’usure soient prises en compte pour pouvoir partir avant 64 ans, l’âge légal fixé par la réforme Borne de 2023. La CFDT, en particulier, veut obtenir une possibilité de départ anticipé pour manipulation de charges lourdes, postures pénibles ou exposition aux vibrations mécaniques, dans le cadre d’un compte pénibilité (C2P) déjà existant.Le patronat refuse pour l’instant une telle mesure. Ce serait “insupportable pour nous”, a déclaré mardi matin en arrivant au conclave Eric Chevée, le représentant de la CPME (patronat pour petites et moyennes entreprises).La CPME a proposé à la place un dispositif qui consisterait à créer des “points d’usure” pour les personnes “qui doivent porter des charges lourdes, subir des postures pénibles ou des vibrations mécaniques”, ouvrant “droit à des formations, des aides à la reconversion”.Mais les syndicats accusent le patronat de privilégier la reconversion plutôt que les départs anticipés.Parmi les autres “points durs”, la CFTC a également mis comme “ligne rouge” – objectif impératif – le passage à 66 ans de l’âge de départ sans décote (contre 67 ans), également rejeté par le patronat.- Prime seniors “pas évoquée” -“C’est un mandat que j’ai de mon organisation, on ne peut pas faire autrement”, a indiqué Pascale Coton, représentante de la CFTC.Les syndicats ont en tout cas enterré la proposition sortie du chapeau lundi par François Bayrou d’une “prime” pour inciter les salariés seniors à retarder leur départ à la retraite.”Ce n’est ni une demande d’une organisation syndicale, ni d’une organisation patronale. Elle n’a fait l’objet d’aucun chiffrage et d’aucune étude de faisabilité, et pour l’instant, elle n’a pas été évoquée”, a souligné Yvan Ricordeau à la mi-journée.Même si ça ne faisait pas grand mystère depuis le début, le Medef a entériné depuis le 10 juin qu’il ne bougerait pas sur l’âge de départ à 64 ans. Cela ne signifie pas forcément une fin de non-recevoir pour les syndicats. Tout dépendra de ce que le patronat lâchera en termes de carrière des femmes, de pénibilité, ou d’augmentation de cotisations sociales.”S’il y a un accord (au conclave), il y aura débat au Parlement, mais je ne remettrai pas en chantier s’il n’y a pas d’accord”, a déclaré François Bayrou devant l’Assemblée nationale mardi. La fin du conclave est un instant de vérité pour le Premier ministre. Il s’était engagé au début du processus à présenter un éventuel accord de cette concertation devant le Parlement. Le Premier ministre avait lancé ce nouveau format de discussions après un compromis noué avec les socialistes pour éviter une censure du gouvernement. “Nous avons toujours été extrêmement clair: si le Parlement n’avait pas le dernier mot (sur les retraites), c’était la censure”, a rappelé devant la presse mardi le porte-parole du groupe PS à l’Assemblée nationale, Arthur Delaporte. L’idée de ce conclave était aussi de rendre moins impopulaire la réforme des retraites Borne de 2023, qui porte progressivement de 62 à 64 ans le départ à la retraite. Tout en essayant de revenir à l’équilibre financier, alors qu’un déficit du système s’annonce à hauteur de 6,6 milliards d’euros en 2030.pgr-lby-boc-sl/ito/tes

Conclave sur les retraites: les blocages demeurent

US retail sales slip more than expected after rush to beat tariffs

US retail sales declined more than expected in May, government data showed Tuesday, dragged by a slowdown in auto sales as consumers pulled back after hurrying to get ahead of President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs.As Trump’s levies begin to take effect through the country, analysts are keeping a close watch on how consumers — a critical driver of the world’s biggest economy — respond to resulting uncertainty and any price increases down the line.Last month, overall sales fell by 0.9 percent from April to $715.4 billion, according to data released by the Department of Commerce. It was the largest decline since the start of the year, and bigger than the 0.6 percent drop expected by a Briefing.com consensus forecast.From a year ago, retail sales were up 3.3 percent, still a slowdown from the 5.0 percent rate in April.Analysts said consumers likely brought forward major purchases like cars in anticipation of Trump’s tariffs — the president imposed a sweeping 10 percent levy on almost all US partners in April.Trump also separately slapped steeper tariffs on imports of steel, aluminum and automobiles, fueling concern that these would push inflation up in the coming months.Excluding autos and parts, retail sales in May were still 0.3 percent down from the prior month.Sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers slumped 3.5 percent on-month, while those at restaurants and bars fell 0.9 percent.Declines in spending were also seen at electronics and appliance stores, grocery stores and gas stations, the report said.- ‘Overly reassuring picture’ -For now, there are “few signs” in key sales components that consumer demand for imported goods is collapsing, said Oliver Allen, senior US economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.Despite declines elsewhere, sales were still up at furniture and clothing stores.But underlying sales volumes could drop in the coming months as tariffs are passed on, he said.Economists anticipate a more notable hit to consumer costs once businesses run down on existing inventory.”Tariffs haven’t hit domestic prices in earnest yet, so these data paint an overly reassuring picture,” said Nationwide financial markets economist Oren Klachkin. “We expect to see a larger impact in the summer when the levies will pass through into consumer prices,” he added.Currently, Klachkin said, the consumer “isn’t spending lavishly and is understandably price sensitive.”A key question this week is how a weaker-than-expected retail sales report might influence the Federal Reserve’s deliberations as the central bank opened its two-day policy meeting Tuesday.The Fed has been cautious when it comes to lowering interest rates further despite Trump calling for larger rate cuts in the face of benign inflation data.Policymakers are watching for the effects of tariffs on prices and the jobs market before acting further.The bank is widely expected to keep rates unchanged for a fourth straight meeting, while releasing its economic projections as well on Wednesday afternoon.Separately, US industrial production edged down unexpectedly in May as a drop in utilities output outweighed slight increases in manufacturing and mining.

Nine hurt as Kenya police, motorbike ‘goons’ clash with protestersTue, 17 Jun 2025 14:25:08 GMT

Security forces and hundreds of men armed with whips and clubs clashed with protesters in Kenya on Tuesday, leaving at least nine injured, as they demonstrated against the killing of a man in police custody.AFP journalists saw a police officer shoot a bystander at close range in the head, with video of the incident triggering …

Nine hurt as Kenya police, motorbike ‘goons’ clash with protestersTue, 17 Jun 2025 14:25:08 GMT Read More »

Queer astronaut documentary takes on new meaning in Trump’s US

When director Cristina Costantini started making a documentary about the first US woman in space, she thought it would be looking back on the “sexism and homophobia of yesteryear”.But the story of astronaut Sally Ride, whose queer identity was a secret when she blasted off more than four decades ago, took on a “completely different meaning” after the re-election of President Donald Trump, Costantini told AFP.”When we started making the film, it didn’t seem all that political to celebrate queer love or women astronauts,” said the director of “Sally”, which started streaming on Disney+ in many countries on Tuesday. “Just a few years ago, there was a pride flag that flew in space, and (NASA) had vowed the next person on the Moon would be a woman.”But that vow has now been removed from NASA’s website, just one of many changes at the US space agency since Trump returned to the White House in January. “Employees have been asked to remove symbols of gay pride, pride flags, trans visibility flags,” Costantini said. Now, the director hopes the documentary “serves as a reminder that these rights are not guaranteed, that they were hard fought and they were won by people like Sally” and her partner Tam.”It’s our responsibility to carry the torch and continue the fight for equality.”- ‘It was hard on her’ -After boarding the Challenger space shuttle on June 18, 1983, Ride became the first US woman to fly to space. It was two decades after Soviet cosmonaut Valentina Tereshkova made the voyage.NASA only started allowing women to apply as astronaut recruits in 1977.Ride, who had a PhD in astrophysics from Stanford University and was an accomplished tennis player, was one of six women selected out of more than 8,000 applicants in the class of 1978.Ride received the same training as male astronauts, but was treated quite differently. Journalists asked whether she cried when facing difficulty. NASA engineers asked about what make-up she would need in space. They even worried whether 100 tampons would be enough for her six-day journey into space.”I felt the women hadn’t paid their dues like we had,” Mike Mullane, another astronaut in the class of 1978, said in the documentary.When Ride returned to Earth, the image of the 32-year-old in her blue jumpsuit, curly chestnut hair, piercing blue eyes and confident smile was seen around the world.But Ride struggled to come to terms with her new status as icon.”It was too much for her,” Tam O’Shaughnessy, who was Ride’s partner for 27 years, told AFP. “She was an introvert and it was hard on her.”The two women founded a nonprofit dedicated to teaching girls science. But the world would only learn they were in a relationship until after Ride’s death from pancreatic cancer at the age of 61 in 2012.”Sally did not like labels,” O’Shaughnessy said.”She was a queer woman. And so I think it’s great that she’s sort of become a part of the (LGBTQ+) community after death.”O’Shaughnessy expressed concern at reports that US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth wants to change the name of a Navy ship currently named after famous gay activist Harvey Milk.”There’s a research vessel called ‘Sally Ride’ and it crossed my mind that might change, too” she said.”It’s just shocking. All of this is hard to swallow.”

Retraites: sans accord des partenaires sociaux, la réforme Borne “s’appliquera”, redit Bayrou

Sans accord entre les partenaires sociaux, qui peinent à s’entendre sur la réforme contestée des retraites de 2023, la loi d’Elisabeth Borne “s’appliquera”, a redit mardi le Premier ministre François Bayrou, qui s’était engagé à saisir le Parlement en cas d’accord même partiel.”J’ai dit que s’il y avait un accord, il serait soumis au Parlement. Et s’il n’y a pas d’accord (…), c’est la réforme telle qu’elle a été adoptée” en décembre 2023 “qui s’appliquera”, a-t-il affirmé devant l’Assemblée nationale, lors de la séance des questions au gouvernement.Il répondait au chef de file des députés socialistes Boris Vallaud, qui lui demandait que le “dernier mot revienne au Parlement” sur cette loi, que les partenaires sociaux parviennent à un accord “global” ou pas.Pour éviter une censure par les socialistes lors de la naissance de son gouvernement, le Premier ministre avait permis aux syndicats et au patronat d’ouvrir des négociations pour revoir la réforme de 2023.M. Vallaud a repris ensuite la parole et demandé à François Bayrou de tenir “ses engagements pris” pour “un retour au Parlement” du texte, qu’il y ait un accord “global” ou pas. “Ce sont les mots que vous avez posés sur le papier. C’est-à-dire que vous devez faire la même confiance au dialogue social et au débat parlementaire”, a dit le député des Landes.Dans un courrier daté du 16 janvier adressé aux chefs des groupes parlementaires socialistes, M. Bayrou avait listé les concessions du gouvernement.”Si les partenaires sociaux ne parviennent pas à un accord global, nous présenterons néanmoins les avancées issues des travaux des partenaires sociaux, sous réserve d’un accord politique et d’un équilibre financier global maintenu”, et ce sous la forme d’un “nouveau projet de loi”, avait écrit le Premier ministre.Mardi, François Bayrou a réaffirmé avoir demandé aux partenaires sociaux de garantir un “retour à l’équilibre” du régime des retraites d’ici 2030, en rappelant qu’il y avait “des dispositions dans notre droit qui empêchent le Parlement de dégrader l’équilibre budgétaire du système de retraite” tel que l’article 40 de la Constitution, qui interdit tout amendement créant une nouvelle dépense.A quelques heures de la fin prévue des concertations sur les retraites, les négociations entre partenaires sociaux ne progressaient pas, ont rapporté les participants à la mi-journée.

Attaque israélienne en Iran: quel impact sur le programme nucléaire de Téhéran?

L’attaque d’une ampleur sans précédent lancée le 13 juin par Israël avec pour objectif affiché d’empêcher l’Iran de se doter de la bombe atomique porte un rude coup à son programme nucléaire, sans qu’il soit possible d’en évaluer précisément l’impact à ce stade.Voici un nouveau point sur la situation à la date de mardi:Quelle est l’étendue des dégâts?Le site pilote d’enrichissement d’uranium de Natanz, dans le centre du pays, a été “détruit” dans sa partie en surface, selon l’Agence internationale de l’énergie atomique (AIEA), citant des informations des autorités iraniennes.L’instance onusienne a également fait état mardi, sur la base d’images satellite, de nouveaux éléments montrant des “impacts directs” sur les salles souterraines, qui contiennent des milliers de centrifugeuses, ces machines utilisées pour enrichir la matière nucléaire à des niveaux proches du seuil militaire.L’autre usine d’enrichissement, celle de Fordo au sud de la capitale iranienne, a également été visée mais “aucun dommage n’a été constaté”, d’après l’AIEA.Sur le site nucléaire d’Ispahan (centre), quatre bâtiments ont été touchés: le laboratoire central de chimie, une usine de conversion d’uranium, l’usine de fabrication de combustible pour le réacteur de recherche de Téhéran et une installation en construction.C’est a priori dans l’enceinte de ce complexe que se trouvent les importantes réserves d’uranium hautement enrichi.Le programme peut-il être anéanti?”Israël peut endommager le programme nucléaire iranien, mais il est peu probable qu’il puisse le détruire”, commente pour l’AFP le chercheur Ali Vaez, de l’International Crisis Group, un cercle de réflexion américain.Le pays, dit-il, ne dispose pas des puissantes bombes nécessaires “pour réduire à néant les installations fortifiées de Natanz et Fordo”, enterrées à de grandes profondeurs.Il lui faudrait pour cela “l’assistance militaire américaine”, confirme Kelsey Davenport, experte de l’Arms Control Association. Le savoir accumulé reste acquis, ajoute-t-elle, même si neuf scientifiques nucléaires ont été tués par Israël. Autre interrogation: qu’est-il advenu des stocks d’uranium enrichi? Impossible de le savoir à ce stade. “Si l’Iran parvient à en transférer une partie vers des installations secrètes, Israël aura perdu la partie”, souligne M. Vaez.Quels risques pour la population?L’instance nucléaire onusienne n’a pas constaté de hausse des niveaux de radiation aux abords des différents sites affectés.”Il y a très peu de risques que des attaques contre les installations d’enrichissement d’uranium entraînent des rejets radioactifs dangereux”, souligne Mme Davenport.En revanche, une attaque contre la centrale de Bouchehr (sud), épargnée pour l’instant, pourrait avoir “de graves conséquences sur la santé et l’environnement”.Les sites nucléaires “ne doivent jamais être attaqués, quels que soient le contexte ou les circonstances, car cela pourrait nuire à la population et à l’environnement”, insiste le directeur général de l’AIEA, Rafael Grossi.L’Iran est-il vraiment proche de la bombe atomique?Après le retrait unilatéral en 2018 des Etats-Unis de l’accord international sur le nucléaire conclu trois ans plus tôt, l’Iran s’est progressivement affranchi de certaines obligations, accélérant notamment l’enrichissement d’uranium bien au-delà de la limite fixée à 3,67%.Le pays disposait mi-mai de 408,6 kg d’uranium enrichi à 60%. Un tel stock, s’il était enrichi à 90% – le seuil nécessaire à la conception d’une bombe atomique – permettrait d’en fabriquer plus de neuf.L’Iran est le seul pays au monde non-détenteur d’armes nucléaires à produire une telle matière, selon l’AIEA.Pour autant, dans son dernier rapport, l’Agence indique qu’elle “ne dispose d’aucune indication crédible d’un programme nucléaire structuré” visant à doter l’Iran de l’arme atomique, comme cela a pu être le cas par le passé. Téhéran se défend de nourrir de telles ambitions.”Jusqu’à présent, les coûts liés à la militarisation l’ont emporté sur les avantages. Mais ce calcul pourrait changer dans les semaines à venir”, prévient Kelsey Davenport. “Les frappes israéliennes ont fait reculer l’Iran sur le plan technique, mais sur le plan politique, elles le rapprochent de l’arme nucléaire”, affirme-t-elle.D’autant qu’il existe désormais “un risque réel de détournement de l’uranium enrichi”, une opération qui “pourrait passer inaperçue pendant des semaines”, les frappes actuelles empêchant les inspecteurs de l’AIEA présents sur place d’accéder aux sites.