La guerre commerciale pèsera également sur les finances publiques, alerte le FMI
La guerre commerciale provoquée par les droits de douane voulus par le président américain Donald Trump viendront peser sur les finances publiques de la plupart des pays, a averti mercredi le FMI, qui invite les gouvernements à mener les réformes nécessaires pour garantir leur croissance à moyen terme.Dans un contexte où “les finances publiques étaient déjà sous pression et l’endettement élevé dans de nombreux pays”, les droits de douane américains et les représailles d’un certain nombre d’Etats sont venus ajouter “de l’incertitude qui vient compliquer les prévisions budgétaires”, estime le Fonds monétaire international (FMI) dans son rapport sur les politiques budgétaires, le Fiscal Monitor.Si la situation n’évolue pas favorablement, “sur la base des informations disponibles actuellement, la dette au niveau mondiale pourrait atteindre 117% du PIB d’ici 2027, ce qui, si cela se matérialisait, serait l’un des ratio les plus élevés depuis plusieurs décennies”, a alerté le directeur du département des affaires budgétaires du Fonds, Vitor Gaspar, lors d’une interview à l’AFP.Le ralentissement économique va réduire les revenus des Etats, ce qui pourrait les pousser à devoir faire un choix, entre “réduire leur dette, remettre en place les filets de sécurité budgétaire ou gérer la pression sur leurs dépenses”, dans un contexte de hausse des coûts d’emprunt et des risques, souligne le rapport.Mais “les dépenses publiques peuvent être une source de confiance et de soutien dans un contexte de fortes pressions macroéconomiques”, dès lors qu’elles sont employées à bon escient par les Etats , a insisté M. Gaspar.Parmi les possibilités, des mesures de soutien qui soient “ciblées et temporaires, avec une clause assurant qu’elles prendront fin à un moment donné”, afin de ne pas peser durablement sur les finances publiques.Dans l’ensemble, le FMI s’attend à voir un tiers des Etats dans le monde, représentant collectivement 75% du PIB mondial, connaître une dégradation de leur endettement. Parmi les pays concernés, la Chine et les Etats-Unis, la France ou l’Italie, le Brésil et l’Arabie saoudite.Mais la situation n’est pas la même d’un pays à l’autre, en particulier lorsqu’il s’agit des deux premières économies, a pointé Vitor Gaspar, car “les deux sont des économies continentales, suffisamment importantes pour disposer de suffisamment d’options permettant de garder l’endettement sous contrôle”.- Renforcer le capital humain -Dans l’immédiat cependant, les deux pays ne font pas face aux mêmes difficultés: la Chine doit en effet dépenser plus au niveau national, malgré un niveau d’endettement déjà élevé, pour renforcer la protection sociale de manière à libérer la consommation intérieure.Aux Etats-Unis, l’effort doit avant tout porter sur une réduction du déficit public, afin de maintenir sa dette sous contrôle “mais pour y parvenir, le gouvernement dispose d’options tant du côté des recettes que des dépenses”, a insisté Vitor Gaspar.Ce qui n’est pas le cas des pays émergents ou en développement, dont certains sont d’ores et déjà “confrontés à une crise de la dette ou proches de l’être”.Pour eux, il est “crucial d’investir dans l’éducation et dans la santé. Renforcer leur capital humain est le meilleur moyen de développer ces pays mais cela demande des ressources”, a reconnu M. Gaspar.Afin d’y parvenir il est essentiel de “construire la confiance nécessaire, que les citoyens soient sûrs que leur argent est dépensé intelligemment. Ce n’est pas seulement le faire mais le montrer”, a-t-il recommandé.D’autant que ces pays disposent “d’une marge pour augmenter leurs revenus, en augmentant leurs impôts ou plus simplement en élargissant la base imposable”.A la différence de l’Europe, qui doit en revanche “trouver comment financer à long terme ses dépenses militaires”.”Cela ne passera pas une source permanente de revenus ou par le fait de changer la composition des dépenses, ce qui signifie une évolution du contrat social” a averti M. Gaspar.Néanmoins, “des évolutions du marché unique et dans la structuration des dépenses publiques sont possibles. Ces questions ne sont pas uniquement économiques et financières, elles sont hautement politiques. Il y a besoin de plus de clarté sur les objectifs que les Européens eux-mêmes entendent atteindre”, a conclu Vitor Gaspar.
Muzarabani takes nine as Zimbabwe celebrate Bangladesh first Test win
Blessing Muzarabani’s nine-wicket match figures and determined batting helped Zimbabwe stun Bangladesh by three wickets in the first match of the two-Test series in Sylhet on Wednesday.Mehidy Hasan Miraz recorded his second five-wicket haul for the match but it was in vain as Zimbabwe’s batsmen held their nerve to close out the match despite losing quick wickets.Zimbabwe chased down their target of 174 by the third session of the fourth day with three wickets in hand, their first win against Bangladesh since 2018, and their first against any team in four years, to secure a 1-0 lead.Brian Bennett racked up his second fifty of the match to lead the chase on a surface that Bangladesh’s bowlers failed to exploit early.Bennett and his opening partner Ben Curran laid a solid foundation with a partnership of 95 runs before Curran fell to Mehidy while attempting to play him over long on.Curran failed to gauge the spin and ended up sending a catch to the mid-off. Mehidy quickly bagged four more wickets, sending tremors through the Zimbabwe camp, while Taijul Islam chipped in with another two.But Wessly Madhevere (19 not out), Wellington Masakadza (12), and Richard Ngarava (4 not out) held their nerve to guide Zimbabwe home.Bangladesh posted 255 in the second innings, with captain Najmul Hossain Shanto and wicket-keeper-batter Jaker Ali contributing with a fifty each.But the failures of batsmen such as Mushfiqur Rahim and Mehidy prevented them from setting up a more challenging target. The Sylhet pitch is known to assist the fast bowlers but, unlike Muzarabani, Bangladesh’s pacemen failed to capitalise on the home conditions.The onus fell on the spin duo of Mehidy and Taijul but their efforts weren’t enough to make the required impact.Zimbabwe earlier responded with 273 to Bangladesh’s first innings of 191, with Nahid Rana taking three wickets alongside Mehidy’s five.An 82-run first-innings lead put Zimbabwe in a commanding position and they went on to record a big win. It was Zimbabwe’s eighth win over Bangladesh in 19 Tests, equalling Bangladesh’s number of victories against them.The second and final Test is in Chattogram from April 28.Brief scores:Bangladesh 191 and 255 (Najmul Hossain Shanto 60, Jaker Ali 58; Blessing Muzarabani 6-72) Zimbabwe 273 and 174-7 (Brian Bennett 57; Mehidy Hasan Miraz 5-50)Zimbabwe won by three wicketsToss: Bangladesh
Powerful 6.2-magnitude quake hits off Istanbul coast
A 6.2-magnitude earthquake hit the Sea of Marmara near Istanbul on Wednesday, with the impact felt across Turkey’s largest city where people rushed onto the streets. There were no immediate reports of injuries or damage, officials said, but the quake was followed by at least eight others, Turkey’s AFAD disaster management agency said. “An earthquake of 6.2 magnitude occurred in Silivri, Sea of Marmara, Istanbul,” Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya said on X, adding that it was felt in the surrounding provinces.The initial quake struck at 12:49 pm (0949 GMT) at a depth of 6.92 kilometres under the sea, which lies to the south of the city, AFAD said. It was followed by eight others with magnitudes of 3.5 to 5.9. As buildings shook, people rushed onto the streets where crowds of worried-looking people stared at their mobile phones for information or made calls, an AFP correspondent said. “I just felt earthquake, I’ve got to get out,” a shaken-looking decorator said while rushing out of a fourth-storey apartment where he was working near the city’s Galata Tower, who did not want to give his name. Footage posted by the state news agency Anadolu showed the minaret of a mosque in the Beylikduzu district just west of the historic peninsula swaying during the inial quake.But there were no reports of any buildings collapsing in the sprawling city of 16 million people, Yerlikaya told TRT public television. “Until now, nobody’s called the emergency line to report their house collapsing,” he said, though the Istanbul governor’s office warned people to avoid any structures that looked like they might have been damaged.Footage on Turkey’s NTV television showed one three-storey building collapsed in the Fatih district, also near the historic peninsula, with the broadcaster saying the building was empty and had been abandoned decade ago. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said he was “following the developments closely”.- ‘Nothing we can do’ -“We all panicked and just ran. There’s absolutely nothing else we can do,” said Yusuf, a street seller. The tremors could be felt as far away as Bulgaria, according to AFP journalists in the capital Sofia.Silivri, on the megacity’s western outskirts, has made headlines in the past month as it is where Istanbul’s mayor Ekrem Imamoglu was jailed after his arrest in a graft probe that his critics say is politically motivated. Also at the Silivri jail are a number of students detained for joining the mass protests that erupted nationwide over the move against Imamoglu, Erdogan’s biggest political rival. Although they felt the quake, none were hurt, the Parents Solidarity Network said on X.”The earthquake in Istanbul was most strongly felt in Silivri but our children are fine. There is no problem at the prison, no parent should worry,” the group wrote.The last tremor to be felt in Istanbul was in mid-November, when a quake caused brief panic but no damage or injuries.Turkish and foreign seismologists agree that Istanbul is likely to be struck by major earthquakes in the coming decades given its location of less than 20 kilometres from the North Anatolia fault line.Around 20,000 people were killed in two massive quakes that devastated Turkey’s densely populated northwest — including parts of Istanbul — three months apart in 1999 as the eastern strand of the fault line ruptured.
Nissan announces accelerated China push
Japanese auto giant Nissan on Wednesday announced the launch of two models aimed at picking up speed in its key market of China, where it has been outpaced by local rivals.At industry show Auto Shanghai, the group announced an investment of 10 billion yuan ($1.4 billion) into China, and said it would increase the number of new models it planned to launch by summer 2027 to 10, up from eight.The group’s China chief Stephen Ma told a press conference the aim was to match Chinese competitors, and that Nissan had been slow in approaching the market with new models. “We were not at the same speed, mainly because the Chinese brands were exceptional with speed,” Ma said.With fewer than 800,000 vehicles sold, in the 2023 financial year Nissan’s sales fell by 24.1 percent in China, the world’s leading car market. The company is struggling on several fronts, with fragile accounts and an aborted merger attempt with Honda exacerbated by the tariff turmoil affecting its biggest market, the United States.The group’s renewed China offensive was on display at its booth on Wednesday, in the hulking form of the Frontier Pro truck. It is Nissan’s first plug-in hybrid vehicle, and designed to appeal to Chinese consumers’ tastes.The N7 electric sedan, meanwhile, produced with local partner Dongfeng, promises a range of up to 635 kilometres (395 miles), customisable lighting and advanced driving assistance systems.Nissan also plans to export the two models outside of China “in less than a year”, Ma said, without specifying where — other than not to the United States.Â
I.Coast’s barred opposition leader says is party’s only presidential candidateWed, 23 Apr 2025 12:17:33 GMT
Ivory Coast’s main opposition leader Tidjane Thiam, struck off the electoral list in a row over his nationality, told AFP Wednesday his party would not replace him as its candidate in October’s presidential election.Tensions in the west African country are running high, with Thiam the latest of several prominent figures, including former president Laurent Gbagbo, …