Barnier prépare le terrain à son premier 49.3
En difficulté à l’Assemblée nationale, le gouvernement de Michel Barnier va ouvrir la voie mercredi à l’utilisation de l’article 49.3 de la Constitution pour faire passer le budget 2025, même s’il assure à ce stade vouloir la poursuite des débats parlementaires.Une simple délibération du Conseil des ministres est nécessaire pour recourir à cet article décrié, qui permet l’adoption d’un texte sans vote mais expose le gouvernement à une motion de censure.Ce sera chose faite en fin de matinée. “On en discutera, comme c’est la règle, c’est une possibilité constitutionnelle”, a affirmé la porte-parole du gouvernement Maud Bregeon sur France 2.Pour autant, l’utilisation du 49.3 “n’est pas la volonté du Premier ministre, et on laissera les débats se tenir autant que nécessaire” à l’Assemblée nationale, a-t-elle précisé. Michel Barnier entend se munir de cette option mais “ça ne préjuge pas de la décision finale de l’utilisation ou non du 49.3”, a-t-elle assuré.A la tête d’un gouvernement minoritaire soutenu par son parti Les Républicains (LR) et l’ancienne majorité macroniste, Michel Barnier avait prévenu d’emblée qu’il n’excluait pas le recours à cet outil constitutionnel. Car chaque jour révèle un peu plus les fragilités et les divisions au sein de sa coalition.Elle s’est retrouvée mardi en grande difficulté à l’Assemblée nationale. La surtaxe temporaire sur les hauts revenus, devant durer au maximum 3 ans et censée rapporter deux milliards d’euros en 2025, a été pérennisée par l’Assemblée nationale grâce au vote des députés du MoDem, membres du “socle commun” soutenant Michel Barnier, contre l’avis du gouvernement. – Un socle “tout fissuré” -“Un socle commun, qui n’a rien de commun, qui est tout fissuré”, a commenté le président de la Commission des finances Éric Coquerel sur Public Sénat. “On est en train de montrer qu’on peut avoir une majorité à l’Assemblée nationale”, a poursuivi le député insoumis, persuadé que le gouvernement “va continuer à accumuler les défaites”. Maud Bregeon a elle estimé que le rôle du gouvernement est de “protéger les Français de l’obsession fiscale du Nouveau Front populaire”. Taxer, “ce n’est pas un projet, c’est une impasse”, a martelé la ministre.Sur le projet de budget de la sécurité sociale, le gouvernement a également encaissé une défaite en commission sur son projet de refonte des cotisations patronales.Mais les déboires de l’équipe Barnier ne s’arrêtent pas aux questions budgétaires. Ainsi la coalition n’a pas réussi mardi à faire élire la candidate Les Républicains (LR) Véronique Duby-Muller à une vice-présidente de l’Assemblée, et laissé filer ce poste à l’écologiste Jérémie Iordanoff.Si Michel Barnier devait dégainer le 49.3, cela entraînerait inévitablement le dépôt d’une motion de censure. “A la fin, il faudra évidemment un budget pour le pays”, a concédé Maud Bregeon. Ce serait “un danger” pour Michel Barnier, a estimé Éric Coquerel, convaincu que “le Rassemblement national finira par être obligé de voter une motion de censure”.Le parti de Marine Le Pen tient entre ses mains le destin du gouvernement qu’il pourrait faire tomber en votant une motion de censure de la gauche. Son vice-président Sébastien Chenu a répété sur BFMTV que si le gouvernement était “dans une posture de continuité” par rapport aux politiques macronistes, il s’exposait “à un rejet et plus tard à une censure” de l’Assemblée nationale. “Michel Barnier rappelle les pires heures des gouvernements Macron, qui dégainaient le 49.3 à toute vitesse”, a ajouté Sébastien Chenu, qui ne veut pas que “le Parlement soit brutalisé”.  L’article 49.3 de la Constitution, utilisé 23 reprises par l’ex-Première ministre Élisabeth Borne est très critiqué car il est souvent considéré comme une atteinte à la démocratie et aux droits du Parlement.Â
Stocks mixed as rate cut bets are trimmed, US vote in focus
Equities diverged Wednesday after another unremarkable day on Wall Street, where rising bond yields and comments from Federal Reserve officials dampened expectations for US interest rate cuts.A global rally that has seen several markets hit multiple records — particularly in New York — appears to have run out of gas as traders assess the US central bank’s plans in the wake of forecast-topping economic data and ahead of a tight presidential election.They are also keeping tabs on Beijing, hoping for more measures to reignite growth after a slew of stimulus over the past month, while geopolitical tensions helped push safe-haven gold to another peak.Bets on another bumper 50-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s next meeting have dwindled following a recent spate of data showing the world’s top economy in rude health and the labour markets resilient.A number of key members of the bank’s policy board have said that while they are in favour of further reductions, they did not want to go too quickly.That comes as markets eye a possible Donald Trump victory in next month’s presidential polls, which observers warn could see him implement tax cuts and impose tariffs that could restoke inflation.Treasury yields are at their highest since July.”Investors are navigating a tangled web of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, a Federal Reserve turning out less dovish than expected, and the sudden reawakening of the ‘Trump Trade’,” said Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management. “The latter has shaken the bond market, forcing some bond traders to pull their heads out of the sand as real jitters emerge about the fiscal landscape post-election.”The Dow and S&P 500 both fell for a second straight day on Wall Street, having ended at fresh peaks Friday, though the Nasdaq ticked higher.Asian markets fluctuated.Tokyo ended down despite a weaker yen caused by a softening of expectations on US rate cuts. The Japanese unit is sitting at more than 152 per dollar, levels not seen since July.However, shares in Tokyo Metro rocketed 45 percent on their debut after its government owners raised $2.3 billion in Japan’s biggest initial public offering for six years.Wellington, Manila, Jakarta and Taipei also fell.Hong Kong climbed more than one percent, building on the healthy run-up enjoyed in the wake of China’s raft of economic support measures.Shanghai also advanced, along with Sydney, Seoul, Singapore and Mumbai.London edged up but Paris and Frankfurt dipped.Gold touched a new record of $2,755.47 on the uncertainty over the US vote as well as fears about the Middle East crisis as Israel plots its retaliation against Iran after this month’s missile barrage by Tehran.The geopolitical concerns offset the rowing back of US rate-cut bets that had helped propel bullion higher in recent months.Oil ticked down after surging more than two percent Tuesday in reaction to Chinese authorities lifting import quotas on independent oil refineries from next year in a sign growth may be recovering.- Key figures around 0810 GMT -Tokyo – Nikkei 225: DOWN 0.8 percent at 38,104.86 (close)Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: UP 1.3 percent at 20,760.15 (close)Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.5 percent at 3,302.80 (close)London – FTSE 100: UP 0.2 percent at 8,322.37Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.0786 from $1.0800 on TuesdayPound/dollar: DOWN at $1.2971 from $1.2977Dollar/yen: UP at 152.36 yen from 151.02 yenEuro/pound: UP at 83.16 pence from 83.14 pence West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 0.7 percent at $71.27 per barrelBrent North Sea Crude: DOWN 0.6 percent at $75.58 per barrelNew York – Dow: FLAT at 42,924.89 (close)
Markets mixed as rate cut bets are trimmed, US vote in focus
Asian equities diverged Wednesday after another unremarkable day on Wall Street, where rising bond yields and comments from Federal Reserve officials dampened expectations for US interest rate cuts.A global rally that has seen several markets hit multiple records — particularly in New York — appears to have run out of gas as traders assess the US central bank’s plans in the wake of forecast-topping economic data and ahead of a tight presidential election.They are also keeping tabs on Beijing, hoping for more measures to reignite growth after a slew of stimulus over the past month, while geopolitical tensions helped push safe-haven gold to another peak.Bets on another bumper 50-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s next meeting have dwindled following a recent spate of data showing the world’s top economy in rude health and the labour markets resilient.A number of key members of the bank’s policy board have said that while they are in favour of further reductions, they did not want to go too quickly.That comes as markets eye a possible Donald Trump victory in next month’s presidential polls, which observers warn could see him implement tax cuts and impose tariffs that could restoke inflation.Treasury yields are at their highest since July.”Investors are navigating a tangled web of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, a Federal Reserve turning out less dovish than expected, and the sudden reawakening of the ‘Trump Trade’,” said Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management. “The latter has shaken the bond market, forcing some bond traders to pull their heads out of the sand as real jitters emerge about the fiscal landscape post-election.”The Dow and S&P 500 both fell for a second straight day on Wall Street, having ended at fresh peaks Friday, though the Nasdaq ticked higher.Asian markets fluctuated.Tokyo ended down despite a weaker yen caused by a softening of expectations on US rate cuts. The Japanese unit is sitting at more than 152 per dollar, levels not seen since July.However, shares in Tokyo Metro rocketed 45 percent on their debut after its government owners raised $2.3 billion in Japan’s biggest initial public offering for six years.Wellington, Manila, Jakarta and Taipei also fell.Hong Kong climbed more than one percent, building on the healthy run-up enjoyed in the wake of China’s raft of economic support measures.Shanghai also advanced, along with Sydney, Seoul, Singapore and Mumbai.London, Franfurt and Paris all fell at the open.Gold touched a new record of $2,753.23 on the uncertainty over the US vote as well as fears about the Middle East crisis as Israel plots its retaliation against Iran after this month’s missile barrage by Tehran.The geopolitical concerns offset the rowing back of US rate-cut bets that had helped propel bullion higher in recent months.Oil ticked down after surging more than two percent Tuesday in reaction to Chinese authorities lifting import quotas on independent oil refineries from next year in a sign growth may be recovering.- Key figures around 0710 GMT -Tokyo – Nikkei 225: DOWN 0.8 percent at 38,104.86 (close)Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: UP 1.1 percent at 20,728.00Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.5 percent at 3,302.80 (close)London – FTSE 100: DOWN 0.1 percent at 8,301.74Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.0793 from $1.0800 on TuesdayPound/dollar: DOWN at $1.2970 from $1.2977Dollar/yen: UP at 152.31 yen from 151.02 yenEuro/pound: UP at 83.22 pence from 83.14 pence West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 0.7 percent at $71.26 per barrelBrent North Sea Crude: DOWN 0.6 percent at $75.56 per barrelNew York – Dow: FLAT at 42,924.89 (close)
Tokyo Metro shares rocket on debut
Shares in Tokyo Metro, one of the world’s busiest subways, soared almost 50 percent on its debut Wednesday after its government owners raised $2.3 billion in Japan’s biggest initial public offering in six years.Each day around 6.5 million people — more than the London Underground — ride Tokyo Metro’s nine lines, part of a vast transport network serving the capital and its sprawling suburbs.The company’s shares closed at 1,739 yen, 45 percent up from their issue price of 1,200 yen. Earlier they were up 47 percent.The 348.6 billion yen proceeds will redeem reconstruction bonds issued after the 2011 earthquake, tsunami and nuclear disaster in northeast Japan that killed 18,000 people.The listing reduces government ownership, split between the nation and Tokyo city, to around 50 percent. Many Japanese rail operators are already privatised.To attract investors, perks for buying more than 200 shares included tickets to the Tokyo Metro museum and golf range, as well as free tempura toppings at its noodle stands.Reports said the issue was 15 times oversubscribed among investors.The IPO is Japan’s largest since tycoon Masayoshi Son’s tech and telecoms conglomerate SoftBank Group raised a national record of $23.5 billion by listing its mobile unit in 2018.London built the first public underground railway, but in 1927 Tokyo became the first Asian city with a subway.These days, four other subway lines are run separately by the Tokyo government, alongside East Japan Railway’s overground routes such as the circular Yamanote Line, and other private services.- ‘Low volatility’ -Analysts said the firm’s strong profits and stable business — with Tokyo less affected by Japan’s demographic crisis — and high dividend yield attracted investors. In the year to March 2025, it expects to pay 40 yen per share.Tokyo Metro posted a net profit of 46 billion yen for the fiscal year that ended in March 2024, up 67 percent from a year earlier. This year it is aiming to increase this to 52 billion yen.The firm’s spectacular debut raised questions about why the government did not try and secure a higher price at the IPO.But Shiki Sato, strategist of Tokyo Securities, told AFP it is “quite common that the first price goes higher than the initial public offering price, especially in Japan, as the offering price is based on earnings but that does not include investors’ expectations”.The share price of Japanese companies that have gone public this year has risen 34 percent on average, Bloomberg News reported, citing Ichiyoshi Securities.The “low volatility” of Tokyo Metro makes its shares a safe prospect for ordinary Japanese investor households, Hideaki Miyajima, a professor in commerce at Waseda University, said before the IPO.”And for institutional investors, the Japanese market is very favourable given the very low exchange rate” of the yen and recent corporate governance reforms, he added.Tokyo Metro president Akiyoshi Yamamura said: “I believe (the share price rise) is the result of many people thinking highly of us. I would like to express my gratitude. We will continue to try to live up to the expectations of our shareholders.”The listing comes ahead of elections in Japan on Sunday with polls suggesting Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party might fall short of a majority for the first time since 2009.The world’s fourth-largest economy has been struggling to gain traction while a falling population means firms in many sectors are having trouble filling vacancies.The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday slashed its 2024 growth forecast for Japan to 0.3 percent but projected it would expand 1.1 percent next year.