US President Donald Trump boasted of a “phenomenal victory” to cheering supporters at a rally in Iowa on Thursday after Congress narrowly passed his signature tax and spending bill, cementing his radical second-term agenda.The jubilant president kicked off America’s year-long 250th birthday celebrations with a victory lap hailing the unpopular bill, which has caused deep concern within his own Republican Party — as well as, polls show, among many Americans.Many fear that it will balloon the national debt, gut health and welfare support as well as clean energy, and supercharge Trump’s migrant crackdown.”There could be no better birthday present for America than the phenomenal victory we achieved just hours ago,” Trump told supporters in the state capital, Des Moines. “Very simply, the one, big beautiful bill would deliver the strongest border on Earth, the strongest economy on Earth, the strongest military on Earth, and ensure the United States of America will remain the strongest country anywhere on this beautiful planet of ours.”The bill squeezed past a final vote earlier Thursday, 218-214, after a small group of Republican opponents in the House of Representatives finally fell in line, corralled by Speaker Mike Johnson.Trump said he would sign the bill into law on Friday, American Independence Day, adding that pilots who had carried out US strikes on Iran two weeks earlier would be in attendance. – Mass deportations, tax breaks -The legislation is the latest in a series of big wins for Trump, including a Supreme Court ruling last week that curbed lone federal judges from blocking his policies, and US air strikes that led to a ceasefire between Israel and Iran.His sprawling mega-bill narrowly passed the Senate on Tuesday and had to return to the lower chamber for its approval of the senators’ revisions.The package honors many of Trump’s campaign promises: boosting military spending, funding a mass migrant deportation drive and committing $4.5 trillion to extend his first-term tax relief.”Everything was an absolute disaster under the Biden-Harris radical regime, and we took the best effort that we could, in one big, beautiful bill, to fix as much of it as we could,” Johnson said.”And I am so grateful that we got that done.”But it is expected to pile an extra $3.4 trillion over a decade onto the country’s fast-growing deficits, while shrinking the federal food assistance program and forcing through the largest cuts to the Medicaid health insurance scheme for low-income Americans since its 1960s launch.Some estimates put the total number of recipients set to lose their insurance coverage under the bill at 17 million. Scores of rural hospitals are expected to close.While Republican moderates in the House fear the cuts will damage their prospects of reelection next year, fiscal hawks chafed over savings that they say fall far short of what was promised.Johnson had to negotiate tight margins, and could only lose a handful of lawmakers in the final vote, among more than two dozen who had earlier declared themselves open to rejecting the 869-page text.Trump spent weeks hitting the phones and hosting White House meetings to cajole lawmakers torn between angering welfare recipients at home and incurring the president’s wrath.Democrats hope public opposition to the bill will help them flip the House in the 2026 midterm election, pointing to data showing that it represents a huge redistribution of wealth from the poorest Americans to the richest.”This bill, this one big, ugly bill — this reckless Republican budget, this disgusting abomination — is not about improving the quality of life of the American people,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said.  After the bill was passed, Trump’s predecessor, Joe Biden, said it was “not only reckless — it’s cruel.”Extra spending on the military and border security will be paid in part through ending clean energy and electric vehicle subsidies — a factor triggering a bitter public feud between Trump and former key advisor Elon Musk.

With sweeping tariffs on friend and foe, US President Donald Trump has roiled financial markets and sparked a surge in economic uncertainty — and tensions are mounting days before a fresh volley of higher duties are due to kick in.Here is a rundown of what Trump has implemented in his second presidency, with levies on dozens of economies set to bounce from 10 percent to a range between 11 percent and 50 percent on Wednesday.- Global tariffs -While Trump imposed a 10 percent tariff on most US trading partners in April, the rate is set to rise for dozens of economies including the European Union and Japan come Wednesday.To avoid higher levies, countries have been rushing to strike deals with Washington.So far, the UK and Vietnam have struck pacts with the United States, while China has managed to temporarily lower tit-for-tat duties.There are notable exceptions to the duty.Immediate US neighbors Canada and Mexico, which were separately targeted over illegal immigration and fentanyl, are not affected by the 10 percent global tariff.Also off the hook are copper, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors and lumber — although these are sectors that Trump is mulling levies on. Gold and silver, as well as energy commodities, are excluded too.- China focus -China has borne the brunt of Trump’s levies. The world’s two biggest economies engaged in an escalating tariffs war this year before a temporary pullback.Both sides imposed triple-digit tariffs on each other’s goods at one point, a level effectively described as a trade embargo.After high level talks, Washington agreed to lower its levies on Chinese goods to 30 percent and Beijing slashed its own to 10 percent.The US level is higher as it includes a 20 percent tariff imposed over China’s alleged role in the global fentanyl trade.- Autos, metals -Trump has also targeted individual business sectors in his second term.In March, he imposed a 25 percent levy on steel and aluminum imports and last month doubled them to 50 percent.He has also rolled out a 25 percent tariff on imported autos, although those imported under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) can qualify for a lower levy.Trump’s auto tariffs impact vehicle parts too, while the president has issued rules to ensure automakers paying vehicle tariffs will not also be charged for certain other duties.- Canada, Mexico -Canadian and Mexican products were initially hard hit by 25 percent US tariffs, with a lower rate for Canadian energy.Trump targeted both neighbors saying they did not do enough on illegal immigration and the flow of illicit drugs across borders.But he eventually announced exemptions for goods entering his country under the USMCA, covering large swaths of products. Potash, used as fertilizer, got a lower rate as well.- Other threats -Beyond expansive tariffs on Chinese products, Trump ordered the closure of a duty-free exemption for low-value parcels from the country. This adds to the cost of importing items like clothing and small electronics.Trump has also opened the door for 25 percent tariffs on goods from countries importing Venezuelan oil. He has threatened similar “secondary tariffs” involving Russian oil.And he has ordered investigations into imports of copper, lumber, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals and critical minerals that could eventually bring new duties.- Legal challenges -Trump’s sweeping tariffs on countries have faced legal challenges. The US Court of International Trade ruled in May that Trump had overstepped his authority with across-the-board global levies.It blocked many of the duties from going into effect, prompting the Trump administration’s challenge, and a US federal appeals court has since allowed the duties to remain while it considers the case.

As a Wednesday deadline approaches for steeper US tariffs to hit dozens of economies ranging from the EU to India, trade negotiations with President Donald Trump’s administration are coming down to the wire.The levies taking effect July 9 were announced in April, with the White House citing a lack of “reciprocity” in trade relations. But they were swiftly halted, allowing room for talks.Days before their reimposition, where do things stand?- EU: ‘Ready’ for deal -The European Union said it is “ready for a deal” with Washington, with the bloc’s trade chief meeting his US counterparts Thursday.European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said the EU was targeting an “agreement in principle” when it came to the July 9 cutoff.With no deal, the US tariff on EU goods doubles from the “baseline” of 10 percent to 20 percent — with Trump previously threatening a 50 percent level.- Vietnam: A pact with uncertainties -Washington and Hanoi unveiled a trade pact Wednesday with much fanfare and few details, but it allowed Vietnam to avoid Trump’s initial 46 percent tariff.Under the agreement, Vietnamese goods face a minimum 20 percent tariff while products made elsewhere face a 40 percent levy — a clause to restrict “transshipping” by Chinese groups.But there remain questions on how the higher levy would apply to products using foreign parts.There is also a risk that Beijing will adopt retaliatory measures, analysts warned.- Japan: Rice, autos at stake -Despite being a close US ally and major source of foreign investment, Japan might not escape Trump’s tariff hike.Tokyo’s trade envoy Ryosei Akazawa has made numerous trips to Washington through the end of June.But Trump recently criticized what he described as Japan’s reluctance to open up further to US rice and auto exports.”I’m not sure we’re going to make a deal,” Trump said, adding that the country could pay a tariff of “30 percent, 35 percent, or whatever the number is that we determine.”- India: A good position -Indian manufacturers and exporters want to believe they can avoid a 26 percent tariff.Negotiations between both countries have been going well for weeks, and Trump himself suggested at the end of June that a “very big” agreement was imminent.Ajay Sahai, director general of the Federation of Indian Export Organisations, said the feedback he received “suggests positive developments.” But he maintained that the situation was fluid. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has stressed that agriculture and dairy products remain “very big red lines.”- South Korea: Muted optimism -Seoul, which is already reeling from US tariffs on steel and autos, wants to avert a sweeping 25 percent levy on its other exports.Cooperation in shipbuilding could be a bargaining chip, but “at this stage, both sides still haven’t clearly defined what exactly they want,” said new President Lee Jae Myung on Thursday.”I can’t say with confidence that we’ll be able to wrap everything up by July 8,” he added.- Indonesia, Thailand, Taiwan in the wings -Other Asian economies including Indonesia, Thailand and Cambodia, which faces a 49 percent tariff, wait with bated breath.Indonesia has indicated willingness to boost energy, agriculture and merchandise imports from the United States. Bangladesh meanwhile is proposing to buy Boeing planes and step up imports of US agriculture products.Taiwan, for whom Washington is a vital security partner, faces a 32 percent duty without a pact.Although both sides have faced bumps along the way, Taiwanese Vice President Hsiao Bi-khim said “negotiators from both sides are working diligently” to find a path forward.- Switzerland: Hope for delay -Switzerland’s government said Washington has acknowledged it was acting in good faith, and assumes its tariff level will remain at 10 percent on July 9 while negotiations continue.But without a decision by the president as of the end of June, Switzerland did not rule out that levies could still rise to a promised 31 percent.burs-jug-bys/jgc

While the US stock market has fully recovered from a spring rout, the relentless drop in the dollar is prompting currency experts to warn of greater financial market turmoil ahead.The American currency is down more than 10 percent so far in 2025, a historic retreat that has overlapped with occasional spikes in long-term US Treasury yields. The anomalous dynamic suggests investors are rethinking US holdings, once considered safe havens, as they take stock of President Donald Trump’s unpredictable policy shifts.While the dollar’s status as the global reserve currency appears unshakeable in the near future, many currency experts expect the greenback to continue to weaken in the coming years, given expectations for slower growth after a long run of US out-performance.”It’s US exceptionalism basically falling by the wayside and the rest of the world playing catch-up,” said Erik Nelson, a macro strategist at Wells Fargo, who predicts the dollar will continue to depreciate.In April, global markets were shaken by “Sell America” gyrations in the stock, foreign exchange and US treasury markets, and analysts expect similar sentiment in the future.”I think the world is becoming a little bit less stable politically, which is generally kind of problematic for economic and financial market volatility,” Nelson said.”We are witnessing the end of a 14-year bull run of the US dollar,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US, a consultancy, who expects a “multi-year unwinding of the dollar.”Harvard Economist Kenneth Rogoff, author of the 2025 book “Our Dollar Your Problem,” said central banks in China and elsewhere were diversifying away from dollars even before 2025, but that Trump accelerated the trend.”I think we’ll see a period of a lot of financial volatility, largely centered around the chaos in the United States,” Rogoff told AFP, pointing to factors that include uncertainty about US central bank independence and the rise of populism.”We’ll probably have a more volatile period in financial markets over the next 10 years than we have in the preceding.”- Onshoring benefit -Both Nelson and Rogoff pointed out that the dollar at the start of 2025 was unusually lofty after surging in the weeks following Trump’s November 2024 victory. Economists have since rethought assumptions that the US would continue to outperform rival economies.According to the ICE US Dollar Index, a basket of seven currencies, the dollar fell 10.7 percent through the end of June, the biggest drop in the first six months of a year since 1973.On Thursday, the dollar index rose modestly after solid US jobs data dimmed odds for imminent Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.With a gain of more than 13 percent against the dollar, the euro has been among the biggest winners following Germany’s big fiscal investments in defense, even as the European Central Bank continued to cut interest rates.Besides a weaker US economic outlook, the shift in the dollar reflects expectations for looser US monetary policy. Trump has taken relentless aim at Jerome Powell, referring to the Federal Reserve Chair as “a stupid person” while calling for interset rates “at least two to three points lower” — a huge shift in monetary policy.While Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and other top officials have rejected suggestions they prefer a cheap dollar, a less expensive currency is beneficial to US exporters and consistent with the administration’s stated goal of beefing up manufacturing.”Lower interest rates and a weaker dollar would enable the US to strengthen its economic self-sufficiency and increase onshoring,” said Jason Schenker of Prestige Economics, who argues that the moves align with a muscular national security posture towards China.Market watchers have come to expect Trump to modulate his actions in response to big negative market swings. On April 9, Trump backtracked on many of the most onerous tariffs from his “Liberation Day” announcement a week earlier after a spike in Treasury bond yields hammered stocks. Later that month, he said he has “no intention” of firing Powell after earlier comments set markets ablaze.But equity markets so far appear unfazed by dollar weakness, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq ending Thursday’s session at records.”At some point it’s going to get investors’ attention,” Cresset Capital Management’s Jack Ablin said of the weak dollar.”It signals foreign investors are less inclined to own US assets.” 

Pope Leo XIV heads off on holiday on Sunday, having spent his first two months as Catholic leader rebuilding unity and bolstering tradition after his predecessor’s unorthodox papacy.”Prudent”, “methodical” and “listening” are some of the words used by Vatican insiders who spoke to AFP to describe the approach of the first American pope, who took over on May 8 as head of the world’s 1.4 billion Catholics.Leo was elected by cardinals following the death of Argentina’s Pope Francis, a charismatic reformer who sparked worldwide devotion but also internal Church divisions during his 12-year papacy.Francis shook things up from the outset, eschewing the ornate garb and palaces of his predecessors, but his successor has moved more carefully, emphasising tradition and unity.On the all-important symbols, Leo has returned to wearing the traditional red mozzetta — short cape — and stole over his white papal robes.He will take a summer break from July 6 to 20 at the papal palace at Castel Gandolfo, outside Rome, a longtime country residence for pontiffs that Francis declined to use.Leo is also expected to move into the papal apartments of the Vatican’s Apostolic Palace in the autumn after extensive renovations, according to a Vatican source.Francis had rejected the palace in favour of a simple apartment in the Santa Marta guesthouse.On policy matters, Leo has given numerous speeches but has so far avoided taking positions that might cause offence and has made no major appointments.In public, he smiles and engages with the crowds who flock to see him in St Peter’s Square, from blessing babies to singing along to the chants of the Chicago White Sox, his favourite baseball team.But the discreet former missionary — who spent two decades in Peru before joining the Roman Curia, the Catholic Church’s governing body, in 2023 — has so far kept to the script and followed protocol.”His style is simplicity… He is a presence that does not impose itself on others,” said Roberto Regoli, a professor at the Pontifical Gregorian University in Rome.”With him, rather than looking at appearances, you have to focus on the content,” he told AFP.- ‘Some relief’ -Charles Mercier, a professor of contemporary history at the University of Bordeaux, said Leo appeared keen to promote the institution over himself as an individual.”Francis had a personal charisma that he greatly emphasised through his personality. Leo seems to want to blend into an institution, the papal office, that is more than him,” he told AFP.The approach has won Leo support within the Curia.Employees who spoke to AFP described a man who was “pragmatic”, “impressively calm”, “measured and methodical”, “thoughtful” and “concerned about balance”.”He is someone who listens a lot, who needs to understand how things work before making decisions,” explained one employee of a dicastery, a Vatican government department.Even those speaking under cover of anonymity offered a broadly positive tone, reflecting how in just two months, Leo has re-engaged with the Curia.”The Curia was shaken up by Pope Francis, with reforms decided sometimes unilaterally, even in an authoritarian manner, and often badly received,” a Vatican source told AFP on condition of anonymity.The arrival of Leo — “who has a good reputation”, according to the source — “brought some relief”. “We feel that things will be fluid, less personal,” they added.A phrase Leo uttered during his first meeting with the Curia on May 24 made a lasting impression: “Popes come and go, the Curia remains.”This contrasts sharply with the criticism dealt out by Francis, who accused the Curia early in his papacy of “spiritual Alzheimer’s” and a lust for power.- Assurances -“It’s clear we’re in a phase of hug therapy,” commented a European diplomatic source.Another envoy to the Holy See added that Leo was “pursuing a unifying approach — exactly what he was elected to do”.Francis was also accused by critics of sidelining doctrine in favour of social issues, notably migration, even if he did not in fact change major tenets of Catholic belief.In his first few weeks, Leo reaffirmed the celibacy of priests, defined marriage as a union between a man and a woman, and urged bishops to stand firm against sexual abuse, a scandal that still roils the global Church.Despite criticising US President Donald Trump’s migration policy before becoming pope, Leo has barely mentioned the subject since taking office, although he has emphasised the importance of social justice.On the diplomatic front, Leo has renewed calls for peace in Gaza and in Ukraine.He discussed the latter conflict with Russia’s Vladimir Putin in a telephone call on June 4, where he urged the president to make a “gesture that favours peace”.Francis had not spoken to Putin since before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Just as his overtures to the Curia have been well received, Leo’s return to the traditional symbols of the papacy has been welcomed by those in the Church who accused Francis of distorting the papal office.But Mercier noted that this did not rule out change in the future.Leo is aiming for a “symbolic rebalancing that undoubtedly stems from the desire to unite the Catholic flock, which has given the impression of being polarised under Francis”, he said.But, he added, it could also be a strategy “to provide symbolic assurances to enable continued progress on the substance”.