ECB to cut rates again as debate heats up on pause

The European Central Bank is expected to cut interest rates again this week in a bid to boost the floundering eurozone economy, even as debate heats up about when to hit pause. It will mark the central bank’s sixth reduction since June last year, with its focus having shifted from tackling inflation to relieving pressure on the 20 nations that use the euro.With “growth stuttering”, a quarter-point cut at Thursday’s meeting “is a near certainty”, HSBC bank analysts said. A reduction by a quarter percentage point would bring the bank’s benchmark deposit rate to 2.50 percent. The rate reached a record of four percent in late 2023 after the ECB launched an unprecedented hiking cycle to tame energy and food costs that surged after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.But investors will be keeping an eye out for signals from ECB President Christine Lagarde that a pause might be on the horizon, after some officials said it was time to start discussing the matter.Markets have indicated they expect the ECB to bring the deposit rate steadily down to two percent by the end of the year to support a eurozone economy that has showed increasing signs of weakness.- Rate debate -Some policymakers are starting to ask how the central bank should continue on the path downward.Isabel Schnabel, an influential member of the ECB’s board, told The Financial Times last month that policymakers were getting “closer to the point where we may have to pause or halt our rate cuts”.”We can no longer say with confidence that our monetary policy is still restrictive,” she said. Meanwhile Pierre Wunsch, a member of the ECB’s rate-setting governing council and Belgium’s central bank chief, also warned against “sleepwalking” into making too many reductions.Uncertainty about the potential impact of US President Donald Trump’s policies is also clouding the outlook.Some are fearful that eurozone growth could be hit if he goes ahead with levying tariffs on EU goods, while others worry that a broad, disruptive trade war could reignite inflation.Eurozone inflation has already ticked up in recent months, hitting 2.5 percent in January, though ECB officials have voiced confidence it will settle around the central bank’s two-percent target later this year.In the United States, where the economy is in more robust health than in the eurozone, the Federal Reserve paused rate cuts recently after inflation rose and amid uncertainty about the future direction of Trump’s policy.But ING bank analyst Carsten Brzeski pointed out that, while some ECB members were starting to push back against too much easing, there remained others with a “dovish” bias who were “still calling for continued rate cuts”.And most observers do not expect Lagarde, who says the central bank will continue to make decisions “meeting-by-meeting”, to give any clear signals about a potential pause. – Poor outlook -The ECB will also publish updated economic forecasts on Thursday. While inflation predictions are expected to remain stable, the central bank might further lower its growth projections for the coming years, according to economists.The eurozone has eked out meagre growth in the past two years amid a poor performance in its biggest economies, Germany and France, leaving the single currency area lagging behind the United States and China.While France still faces political instability, there are hopes the recent German election could lead to the formation of a more stable governing coalition that could enact economic reforms. Despite the debate on a potential pause in rate cuts, Brzeski said the poor outlook might leave the ECB with little choice but to further ease borrowing costs. “There is still a high risk that the eurozone economy underperforms over the coming months,” he said. This “will force the ECB to bring rates down to at least two percent — whether they like it or not.”

Asian markets climb on hopes of China fiscal response to Trump tariffs

Asian markets climbed on Monday on hopes that China will announce a huge stimulus package that will help offset US President Donald Trump’s looming tariffs against Chinese goods.Investors were also watching for any last-ditch deals to ward off the levies hitting Mexico, Canada and China due to come into force on Tuesday.Trump has confirmed 25 percent tariffs on products from Mexico and Canada, and further imposed another 10 percent on Chinese goods from this week.”Traders are on edge for last-minute negotiations to sidestep US tariffs,” said Stephen Innes, an analyst from SPI Asset Management.”In Asia, all eyes are on China’s National People’s Congress, where traders are betting on a fiscal boost to counter the drag from US tariffs and keep China’s blistering 2024 equity rally alive,” he said.Ahead of the key Chinese parliamentary meeting opening on Wednesday, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and Japan’s Nikkei climbed more than one percent, while Shanghai was also up.Chinese stocks were boosted in part by data released on Saturday that showed manufacturing activity grew in February after a dip the previous month.Hong Kong was helped by the blockbuster IPO of bubble-tea and drinks giant Mixue Group, which saw its shares jump 40 percent.     However, bitcoin slipped 1.3 percent on Asian markets after a six percent surge on Sunday on the back of Trump’s announcement that he was considering adding five digital assets to US strategic reserves.Bitcoin, one of the most volatile assets, fell below $80,000 last week for the first time since November, with other crypto currencies mirroring its downward trajectory.Both Trump and his wife Melania recently launched their own branded meme coins, sparking accusations that they were seeking to make money from his political success.And the billionaire chief executive Elon Musk — a close political ally whom Trump has tasked with leading a government efficiency drive — has frequently promoted crypto currencies on his own social media network, X. – Key figures around 0230 GMT -Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 1.0 percent at 37,516.30 (break)Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: UP 1.2 percent at 23,223.83Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.5 percent at 3,335.01Euro/dollar: UP at $1.0419 from $1.0384 on FridayPound/dollar: UP at $1.2612 from $1.2584 Dollar/yen: UP 150.28 from 149.52 yenEuro/pound: UP at 82.62 pence from 82.51 pence West Texas Intermediate: UP 1.12 percent at $70.54 per barrelBrent North Sea Crude: UP 1.09 percent at $73.60 per barrelNew York – Dow: UP 1.4 percent at 43,840.91 (close)London – FTSE 100: UP 0.6 percent at 8,809.74 (close)

Mikey Madison springs Oscar surprise for ‘Anora’

For Mikey Madison, the first time is definitely a charm.The 25-year-old American won the best actress Oscar Sunday for her first major film role in “Anora,” in which she captivated audiences as a sassy sex worker who marries a Russian oligarch’s son — and learns tough lessons about the rich-poor divide.Madison made a major critical breakthrough in Sean Baker’s movie, which first won hearts at the Cannes film festival, where it received the Palme d’Or.She was perhaps the most surprising winner of the night, besting heavy favorite Demi Moore (“The Substance”), Cynthia Erivo (“Wicked”), Fernanda Torres (“I’m Still Here) and scandal-mired Karla Sofia Gascon (“Emilia Perez”).”I grew up in Los Angeles, but Hollywood always felt so far away from me. So to be here standing in this room today is really incredible,” Madison said, reading nervously from a piece of paper.”I also just want to again recognize and honor the sex worker community. I will continue to support and be an ally of all the incredible people, the women that I’ve had the privilege of meeting from that community.””Anora” tells the story of Ani, a Brooklyn sex worker who makes her living in high-end Manhattan clubs. Her luck seems to change when she meets Ivan, a young man who turns out to be the son of a Russian oligarch.Ivan quickly immerses Ani in his life of parties, drugs and sex and, during a wild trip to Vegas, marries her.But the quickie marriage incenses Ivan’s parents, who head to New York to set things right, and Ani quickly finds herself out of her depth.She is forced into a zany search for an AWOL Ivan through Brooklyn’s “Little Odessa” — Brighton Beach — and an uncomfortable trip back to Sin City to get the marriage annulled, on which she experiences the cruelty of class warfare.Madison trained in pole dancing for three months and frequented sex clubs to research the role. The Los Angeles native also perfected a Brooklyn accent and learned some basic Russian.- Modern-day Cinderella -Baker first noticed Madison in Quentin Tarantino’s “Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood,” in which she had a small part as a member of Charles Manson’s murderous hippie cult. The US filmmaker said he was captivated by her presence, and seeing her role in horror franchise reboot “Scream” (2022) cemented his interest.”I’ve never worked with an actor who has dedicated herself more,” he told AFP in Cannes last year. “She has comic timing. She was everything I thought she would be… I know she will be a star.”In “Anora,” he cast her as a modern-day Cinderella, a fighter whose fairy tale ending is ripped from her grasp. In one 28-minute scene, she hits, shrieks and even bites the two-bit Russian and Armenian hoods who come to make her see reason. Madison did all of her own stunts.The role follows a pattern for Madison, who appears to like roles that are the polar opposite of her actual self. She describes herself as quite shy.”I’m a little sick of talking about myself. Do you know what I mean? I feel embarrassed sometimes talking about myself,” she told Deadline in February.- ‘That looks fun’ -Born in California on March 25, 1999, to two psychologists, Madison grew up in the greater LA area, with no dreams of making it big in Hollywood. The homeschooled horse lover trained as an equestrian before being bitten by the acting bug in her teens.”I thought that looks fun or that looks like a safe place to explore all of those things without having to do it in real life,” she told The New York Times in an interview published in January.Still in her teens, she made her breakthrough as Pamela Adlon’s rebellious daughter in television’s “Better Things.” The show ran from 2016 to 2022. She shot “Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood” between seasons, and then got the surprising role in “Scream.” Madison is also part of the Apple TV+ mini-series “Lady in the Lake” starring Natalie Portman.Madison is close to her parents and twin brother, and eschews social media.”I would understand a curiosity toward a character in film, but that’s never been something I’ve really understood — like, the curiosity towards the actor themselves,” she told the Times.

Oscars red carpet: ‘Wicked,’ white and lots of sparkle

After a long season of red carpet events, Hollywood’s top stars brought their best fashion yet to the Oscars on Sunday. While some A-listers matched their looks to their roles (hello, cast of “Wicked”), others went for classic old school Hollywood glamour.Here is a glimpse at some of the red carpet looks at the Dolby Theatre:- ‘Wicked’ fashion -The land of Oz is full of dramatic fashion statements in “Wicked,” and the film’s stars delivered a few more on Sunday.Ariana Grande has worn an array of Glinda-coded pink gowns since kicking off a long press tour for the hit musical and then for awards season.But the nominee for best supporting actress saved the best for last, floating down the red carpet in a sculptural pale Schiaparelli peplum gown.The strapless bodice flounced at the waist and laced up the back. The dress then cascaded to the floor in a glimmering cloud of tulle.Co-star Cynthia Erivo, a nominee for best actress, went for her Elphaba moment in a majestic dark green velvet Louis Vuitton gown with a high pointed collar, a wide neckline, a full skirt and her signature long nails.Jeff Goldblum — who plays the Wizard — wore a cream double breasted Prada jacket, dark pants, floral shirt and a purple floral brooch.- Pristine white -For mere mortals, wearing white is a challenge. For Hollywood stars, it screams old-school glamour.Elle Fanning (“A Complete Unknown”) wore a lacy white Givenchy gown with a prominent black bow at the waist — and a vintage Cartier diamond necklace. Her blonde tresses were swept into a sleek up-do.Lupita Nyong’o, who voiced Roz in the animated feature “The Wild Robot,” rocked a white Chanel gown with pearl-encrusted straps, a silvery bodice overlay and a sweet bow at the waist.And Penelope Cruz looked like an ethereal goddess in a white Chanel gown with shiny brooches down the front.- Glitter -The red carpet sparkled with glittering confections.Demi Moore may not have won the best actress Oscar for her gripping turn in body horror flick “The Substance,” but she was dressed for the moment, wearing a body-skimming silver Armani gown with a plunging neckline and full train.Selena Gomez, who co-stars in narco musical thriller “Emilia Perez,” wowed fashionistas in a fully beaded metallic rose Ralph Lauren column gown, her hair in a neat bob.And past best actress winner Emma Stone shimmered in a sequined nude Louis Vuitton gown, her pixie cut slicked back.- Royalty -Amid a flurry of nude, shimmering gowns, a few stars stood out for wearing bold hues fit for royalty.Zoe Saldana, who won the best supporting actress Oscar for her work in “Emilia Perez,” reigned supreme in a burgundy tiered Saint Laurent bubble gown with sheer black opera gloves.And Colman Domingo, who often wins the red carpet for Hollywood’s men, wore a custom Valentino belted red jacket with black lapels and a sparkling brooch over black trousers.

Sean Baker: chronicler of sex work, Oscar winner

Sean Baker, whose career chronicling the lives of sex workers and marginalized communities has made him a leading light of the US indie movie scene, won the Oscar for best director on Sunday.Baker earned the coveted Academy Award with “Anora,” his latest neorealistic portrayal of society’s underbelly, in which a stripper thinks she has struck it rich with a Russian oligarch’s son.Winning best director with his first nomination, Baker fended off Brady Corbet (“The Brutalist”), James Mangold (“A Complete Unknown”), Jacques Audiard (“Emilia Perez”) and Coralie Fargeat (“The Substance”).”Anora” also won best picture and best actress, and Baker himself collected additional gold statuettes for best original screenplay and best editing.Baker made an impassioned plea for filmmakers to keep making movies for the big screen, saying the theater-going experience is “under threat.””During the pandemic, we lost nearly 1,000 screens in the US, and we continue to lose them regularly. If we don’t reverse this trend, we’ll be losing a vital part of our culture,” he told the audience. “This is my battle cry. Filmmakers: Keep making films for the big screen. I know I will. Distributors: please focus first and foremost on the theatrical releases of your films.”It has been a long road to Hollywood’s grandest stage for the 54-year-old Baker, a slight and unfailingly affable character with an encyclopedic knowledge of film, who is known for casting non-actors and real sex workers in his movies.Despite a devoted arthouse following, Baker’s only previous encounter with the Oscars maelstrom came when Willem Dafoe — a rare big-name star in the director’s oeuvre — was nominated for a supporting role in “The Florida Project.”That fleeting glimpse into awards campaigning was “a crazy, crazy run,” but US audiences have been told “only come to the theater for the big blockbusters — everything else you can get on Netflix,” Baker later told AFP.With “Anora,” which won the Palme d’Or on its debut at the Cannes film festival in May, Baker has finally broken through to wider audiences. By far his most successful film, it has grossed around $40 million.”Anora” won this year’s top prize from Hollywood’s directors guild last month, where the visibly shocked and characteristically modest Baker told peers his “imposter syndrome” was “skyrocketing.”- ‘Right under our noses’ -Born on February 26, 1971, Baker was initiated in cinema by his mother, a teacher. He got the bug at the age of six when he saw Boris Karloff playing the monster in “Frankenstein.”His first feature, “Four Letter Words,” was released in 2000, shortly after his graduation from New York University, but his life spiralled out of control because of a heroin addiction. Emerging from that dark place, Baker was determined to stay in the industry, even if he was just clinging on by his fingernails. He was a long way from following in the footsteps of his heroes — John Cassavetes, Ken Loach and Mike Leigh — but his story was not over yet.He made “Take Out” (2004) about a Chinese immigrant in New York trying to pay off his debts to a smuggler.But it was “Starlet” (2012), about a porn actress, that got him interested in sex workers, putting him in touch with prostitutes, escorts and exotic dancers, many of whom became friends.Asked why so many of his films focus on sex work, Baker told AFP last May that “we are all fascinated… because it is right under our noses, whether we notice it or not.””No joke. From my kitchen, I can literally look into a happy endings massage parlor,” said Baker, who lives in Los Angeles.Baker’s next film, “Tangerine,” was shot on iPhones and followed two transgender prostitutes through the streets of LA on one crazy day.He followed it with “The Florida Project,” about a six-year-old girl living in a cheap motel with her mother, a stripper who loses her job and begins soliciting sex work online.Bria Vinaite, who plays the struggling mother, was discovered by Baker on Instagram, while one of the child actors was spotted in a supermarket. – ‘The scandalous and the mundane’ -Baker was invited to compete for the Palme d’Or at Cannes for the first time in 2021.”Red Rocket,” the “Lolita”-inspired tale of a porn star returning to his small Texas hometown to groom a young girl, earned Baker typically sterling reviews.He returned to Cannes with “Anora” last year, where ecstatic standing ovations and glowing reviews kickstarted an awards campaign that proved unstoppable.Baker told AFP at the time he had expected a more “divisive” response because “we all have different opinions about sex work.”But for Baker, the lives of these real, often flawed human beings whose days and nights contain both the scandalous and the mundane, “can be explored forever.””I can’t make just — and excuse my terminology here, because it’s an old term — a ‘hooker with a heart of gold’ story,” he added.

Asian markets climb on China fiscal hopes against Trump tariffs

Asian markets climbed on Monday on hopes that China will announce a huge stimulus package that will help offset US President Donald Trump’s looming tariffs against Chinese goods.Investors were also watching for any last-ditch deals to ward off the levies hitting Mexico, Canada and China due to come in force Tuesday.Trump had confirmed 25 percent tariffs on products from Mexico and Canada, and further imposed another 10 percent on Chinese goods from this week.”Traders are on edge for last-minute negotiations to sidestep US tariffs,” said Stephen Innes, analyst from SPI Asset Management.”In Asia, all eyes are on China’s National People’s Congress, where traders are betting on a fiscal boost to counter the drag from US tariffs and keep China’s blistering 2024 equity rally alive,” he added.Ahead of the key Chinese parliamentary meeting opening on Wednesday, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and Japan’s Nikkei climbed more than one percent, while Shanghai was also up.Meanwhile, Bitcoin slipped 1.3 percent on Asian markets after a six percent-surge on Sunday on the back of Trump’s announcement that he was considering adding five digital assets to the US’ strategic reserves.Last week saw bitcoin, one of the most volatile assets, fall below $80,000 for the first time since November, with other crypto currencies mirroring its downward trajectory.Both Trump and his wife Melania recently launched their own branded meme coins, sparking accusations that they were seeking to make money from his political success.And the billionaire chief executive Elon Musk — a close political ally whom Trump has tasked with leading a government efficiency drive — has frequently promoted cryptocurrencies on his own social media network, X. – Key figures around 0230 GMT -Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 1.0 percent at 37,516.30 (break)Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: UP 1.2 percent at 23,223.83Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.5 percent at 3,335.01Euro/dollar: UP at $1.0419 from $1.0384 on FridayPound/dollar: UP at $1.2612 from $1.2584 Dollar/yen: UP 150.28 from 149.52 yenEuro/pound: UP at 82.62 pence from 82.51 pence West Texas Intermediate: UP 1.12 percent at $70.54 per barrelBrent North Sea Crude: UP 1.09 percent at $73.60 per barrelNew York – Dow: UP 1.4 percent at 43,840.91 (close)London – FTSE 100: UP 0.6 percent at 8,809.74 (close)

Adrien Brody wins second Oscar for ‘The Brutalist’

Adrien Brody on Sunday completed his return to the top of Hollywood’s A list, winning the second best actor Oscar of his career for his searing portrayal of a Hungarian architect who emigrates to America after World War II in “The Brutalist.”Both of Brody’s Academy Awards have come for Holocaust-related films; he won in 2003 for Roman Polanski’s “The Pianist,” becoming the youngest man ever to triumph in the category at age 29.This time, he bested Timothee Chalamet in Bob Dylan biopic “A Complete Unknown,” Ralph Fiennes in papal thriller “Conclave,” Sebastian Stan as a young Donald Trump in “The Apprentice” and Colman Domingo as a wrongfully convicted inmate in “Sing Sing.””Acting is a very fragile profession. It looks very glamorous and at certain moments, it is,” an emotional Brody told the audience. “No matter where you are in your career, no matter what you’ve accomplished, it can all go away. And I think what makes this night most special is the awareness of that and the gratitude that I have to still do the work that I love.”Winning the golden Oscar statuette caps an extraordinary awards season for the 51-year-old Brody, during which he captured nearly every major award for his work as Holocaust survivor Laszlo Toth, a Bauhaus-trained Jewish architect seeking a new life.In “The Brutalist,” Toth arrives alone in New York and relocates to Pennsylvania, where his cousin Attila (Alessandro Nivola) lives. But that arrangement is short-lived, as Toth doesn’t fit in with Attila’s new life married to a Catholic woman.As he tries to adjust to life in the United States, viewers see Toth struggling to learn English as he battles the demons of his past and the challenges of trying to work in an adopted homeland. Everything changes when he meets industrialist Harrison Lee Van Buren (Oscar nominee Guy Pearce), who commissions him to build a monolithic memorial to his mother — but also insists on controlling his designs.His family life also morphs with the arrival of his wife Erzsebet (Oscar nominee Felicity Jones) and his niece Zsofia (Raffey Cassidy).”The Brutalist,” which runs for three and a half hours, earned 10 Oscar nominations, including one for best picture and another for director Brady Corbet.”If the past can teach us anything, it’s a reminder to not let hate go unchecked,” Brody said Sunday.- Chameleon -To put himself into Toth’s shoes, Brody drew inspiration from his own family history. Brody was born on April 14, 1973 to Sylvia Plachy, a photographer of Hungarian descent, and professor Elliot Brody, who is Jewish with Polish roots. Plachy moved from Budapest to New York in the 1950s.”The character’s journey is very reminiscent of my mother’s and my ancestral journey of fleeing the horrors of war and coming to this great country,” Brody said as he accepted a Golden Globe award in January.”I owe so much to my mother, my grandparents for their sacrifice.”Brody started taking acting classes as a teenager, and attended both a special arts summer camp and a prestigious high school for the arts in New York. After a series of small roles, his breakthrough came in Spike Lee’s 1970s crime thriller “Summer of Sam” (1999).Just a few years later, “The Pianist” hit cinemas — Brody took hours of piano lessons to be able to do justice to the role of Wladyslaw Szpilman, a real-life Polish Jewish musician who survived the Nazi occupation of Warsaw during World War II.His 2003 Oscar win was remembered for him planting a huge kiss on presenter Halle Berry that became controversial when she later admitted it took her by surprise. Brody has said his work on “The Pianist” helped inform his portrayal of Toth two decades later.After “The Pianist,” Brody took on varied roles, from a youth with an intellectual disability in M. Night Shyamalan’s horror flick “The Village” to writer Jack Driscoll in the 2005 remake of “King Kong,” his biggest commercial success.He played Salvador Dali in Woody Allen’s “Midnight in Paris,” featured in Wes Anderson’s “The Grand Budapest Hotel” and “The French Dispatch,” and even had a small role in the hit British television series “Peaky Blinders.”He walked the catwalk for Prada, embraced humanitarian causes and even starred in a music video for reggaeton singer Rauw Alejandro.In his personal life, after a relationship with Spanish actress Elsa Pataky, Brody has been dating fashion designer Georgina Chapman — the woman behind the Marchesa label and the ex-wife of disgraced producer Harvey Weinstein — since 2020.