US tariffs unlikely to have ‘significant’ inflation impact: Fed official

The effect of new tariffs under consideration by US President-elect Donald Trump is unlikely to be “significant or persistent,” a senior Federal Reserve official said Wednesday.Trump has floated several proposals, including a plan for sweeping tariffs on all goods entering the United States — drawing criticism from many economists concerned about possible negative ripple effects. But in a lecture at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in Paris, Fed Governor Christopher Waller — who did not refer directly to Trump — suggested he thought some of the concerns about tariffs may be overblown.”If, as I expect, tariffs do not have a significant or persistent effect on inflation, they are unlikely to affect my view of appropriate monetary policy,” said Waller, who is a permanent voting member of the Fed’s interest rate-setting committee.”I don’t think these draconian tariffs that everybody’s talking about are necessarily going to be implemented,” he added in a nod to Trump’s threats to impose across-the-board tariffs.Waller also addressed the Fed’s likely rate cut path, following a flurry of votes that lowered the US central bank’s benchmark lending rate by 100 basis points in a matter of months.At their most recent meeting in December, Fed policymakers penciled in just two rate cuts for 2025, suggesting they expect a slower pace of cuts ahead.US inflation has fallen sharply since it hit a four-decade high in 2022, but recently ticked higher, creeping away from the Fed’s long-term target of two percent.At the same time, economic growth has remained resilient, and the labor market has stayed relatively robust, raising concerns the Fed may have to keep rates higher for longer to tame it.Higher interest rates indirectly affect borrowing costs for consumers and businesses, affecting the cost of everything from mortgages to car loans. Speaking to the OECD on Wednesday, Waller said he believed that “inflation will continue to make progress toward our two percent goal over the medium term and that further reductions will be appropriate.”If the outlook for the economy evolves as expected, Waller said he would support continuing to cut rates this year.”As always, the extent of further easing will depend on what the data tell us about progress toward two percent inflation, but my bottom-line message is that I believe more cuts will be appropriate,” he said.Futures traders currently see a probability of close to 95 percent that the Fed will remain on pause at the next interest rate meeting later this month, according to data from CME Group. They also assign a probability of around 80 percent that the US central bank will make no more than two quarter percentage-point cuts this year.

Debris falling from the sky: more often, more riskWed, 08 Jan 2025 14:03:21 GMT

It is still not clear what exactly fell onto a Kenyan village last month, but such events are likely to become increasingly common given the amount of space debris drifting above the planet.- What we knowA metallic ring of roughly 2.5 metres (8 feet) in diameter and weighing some 500 kilogrammes (1,100 pounds), crashed into …

Debris falling from the sky: more often, more riskWed, 08 Jan 2025 14:03:21 GMT Read More »

Global stocks diverge on renewed US inflation fears

Stock markets diverged and the dollar rose Wednesday after data pointed to a robust US economy, further denting hopes of several more cuts to interest rates in the world’s biggest economy.The latest readings added to worries about a fresh uptick to US inflation, already on traders’ radar owing to Donald Trump’s pledges to slash taxes, regulations and immigration when he returns to the White House this month.”A mixture of macro fears for inflation and concerns about what the next Trump presidency may hold are dominating markets,” said Kathleen Brooks, research director at trading group XTB.Asian stock markets closed mostly down Wednesday while the bulk of European indices gained nearing the half-way stage. All three main indices on Wall Street ended in the red Tuesday, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 each shedding more than one percent.Tech firms, which had led a surge on Monday, were again the key drivers of action, with chip titan Nvidia tanking after a disappointing product presentation. A closely watched survey of the crucial US services sector saw a pick-up in December, with the prices component soaring far more than expected to hit the highest level since last January.A separate report showed job openings also outstripped forecasts in November to touch a six-month high.Tuesday’s readings made the case for the Federal Reserve to slow its pace of rate cuts, having lowered them three times last year thanks to easing inflation.Focus now turns to Friday’s release of the key non-farm payrolls report, which will provide a fresh snapshot of the US economy.The Fed has already lowered its outlook for rate cuts to two reductions this year, down from the four forecast in September.”But speculation is brewing that this could be reduced to just one if price pressures persist,” said Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown.In Europe, German industrial orders fell more than five percent in November, official data showed Wednesday, in the latest sign of headwinds facing the continent’s largest economy. On the corporate front, shares in British energy giant Shell slid 1.5 percent on a weak trading update ahead of its full year results, capping gains on London’s benchmark FTSE 100 index.- Key figures around 1100 GMT -London – FTSE 100: UP 0.1 percent at 8,255.87 pointsParis – CAC 40: FLAT at 7,488.89Frankfurt – DAX: UP 0.6 percent at 20,452.31Tokyo – Nikkei 225: DOWN 0.3 percent at 39,981.06 (close)Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: DOWN 0.9 percent at 19,279.84 (close)Shanghai – Composite: FLAT at 3,230.17 (close)New York – Dow: DOWN 0.4 percent at 42,528.36 (close)Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.0319 from $1.0342 on TuesdayPound/dollar: DOWN at $1.2445 from $1.2479Dollar/yen: UP at 158.32 yen from 157.98 yenEuro/pound: UP at 82.92 pence from 82.87 penceBrent North Sea Crude: UP 0.3 percent at $77.26 per barrelWest Texas Intermediate: UP 0.6 percent at $74.66 per barrel

Wildfire sparks panicked evacuations in Los Angeles suburbs

Firefighters on Wednesday battled a ferocious wildfire in Los Angeles suburbs, home to many Hollywood celebrities, which devoured buildings and sparked panicked evacuations as hurricane-force winds fuelled rapid blaze growth.Frightened residents abandoned their cars on one of the only roads in and out of the upscale Pacific Palisades area, fleeing on foot from the 3,000-acre (1,200-hectare) blaze engulfing an area packed with multimillion-dollar homes in the Santa Monica Mountains.Firefighters used bulldozers to push dozens of vehicles — including expensive models such as BMWs, Teslas and Mercedes — to one side, leaving many crumpled and with their alarms blaring. Some celebrities posted comments and pictures on social media platforms. More than 1,400 firefighters were on the ground, with hundreds more on the way, California Governor Gavin Newsom said.US media reported one firefighter among several injured in the Palisades.Hundreds of firefighters swarmed the area, attacking the blaze from the ground and the air, while crews worked through steep terrain to cut back vegetation and create firebreaks.”Extreme fire behavior… continues to challenge firefighting efforts for the Palisades Fire,” with winds gusts up to 60 miles (95 kilometres) per hour expected to continue through Thursday, said the LA fire department in its latest update.Around 30,000 people were ordered to evacuate the fast-spreading flames, which leveled multiple homes as powerful winds spread embers far and wide.Velma Wright, 102, was evacuated from a care facility as embers and flames approached in Pasadena, an AFP photographer saw, from where dozens other residents were moved.Trees and vegetation around the prestigious Getty Villa Museum were burned, but the structure and collections were spared, the museum said in a post on X.The Getty, set up by US oil billionaire and collector J. Paul Getty and one of the world’s richest art museums, houses Greek and Roman antiquities in a replica Roman country home.Actor James Woods posted a video on X showing flames engulfing trees and bushes near his home as he got ready to evacuate, and shortly afterward said all the fire alarms were going off.”I couldn’t believe our lovely little home in the hills held on this long. It feels like losing a loved one,” Woods said.Across town, on the northern edge of Los Angeles, another fire broke out in Eaton Canyon, near Pasadena, quickly consuming 200 acres (81 hectares) Tuesday night, according to Angeles National Forest officials.The city of Malibu west of Los Angeles told its residents via social media post to “prepare to evacuate quickly if fire conditions worsen. Evacuate now, especially if you need extra time or have pets/livestock.”US President Joe Biden — who was in Los Angeles for a planned announcement on new national monuments — said he was “being frequently briefed on the wildfires” and has offered “any federal assistance that is needed.”Vice President Kamala Harris, who has a house in California, said she was praying for “fellow Californians who have evacuated.”- ‘Everyone panicked’ -The fire erupted midmorning and swelled quickly, taking many residents by surprise.One man, who gave his name as Gary, told broadcaster KTLA that hot ashes were raining down on his community of Sea Ridge.”There was smoke in the distance, and I was assured that it would not come over the hill… Five minutes later, it’s coming down the hill,” he said.”Everyone panicked, that’s when everybody made a run and went to go and pack their houses up.”Evacuee Kelsey Trainor said she saw the fire explode in size as she was fleeing.”By the time we got to the bottom of the hill, which is about two or three miles, there were flames on both sides of the road, and it became gridlocked,” she said.”No one knew what to do. Everyone was honking their horns. There’s flames all around you.”I could see people walking with suitcases, with their dogs, children. An elderly woman was really visibly upset and in tears.”Pacific Palisades resident Andrew Hires told AFP he got a text alerting him to the fire as his child was at the dentist about to have a tooth extracted.”We pulled off the mask and ran to the car,” he said.- ‘Worse’ weather conditions -The fire came as the area was being hit by seasonal Santa Ana winds that forecasters said could develop into the worst windstorm in a decade, with gusts of up to 100 miles (160 kilometers) an hour expected.”This looks pretty, pretty concerning,” said meteorologist Daniel Swain.”And what’s going on now is only just the beginning, because weather conditions are going to get a lot worse.”With a huge pall of smoke visible over the whole of Los Angeles, events throughout the area were cancelled, including a red-carpet premiere of Jennifer Lopez’s new film “Unstoppable.” Wildfires are an expected part of life in the US West and play a vital role in nature.But scientists say human-caused climate change is altering weather patterns.Southern California had two decades of drought that were followed by two exceptionally wet years, which sparked furious vegetative growth — leaving the region packed with fuel and primed to burn.