Equity markets struggle after more weak China data

Most markets fell on Monday after an unexpected slowdown in retail sales reinforced worries about China’s economy, with the latest batch of weak data compounding the disappointment of Beijing’s latest stimulus pledges.The tepid start came on the year’s last full week of trading, with the focus on key monetary policy decisions by the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan.Observers are also tracking developments in Seoul after South Korean lawmakers impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol at the weekend in the wake of his short-lived declaration of martial law this month.Hong Kong and Shanghai sank after figures showed that Chinese retail sales grew 3.0 percent last month, much slower than October and well off the five percent forecast.The figures highlighted the work leaders had in store as they try to kickstart consumption and reignite the world’s number two economy.Officials unveiled new promises at the weekend to boost the battered property sector and tweak monitoring of equity markets.That came after investors were left unimpressed last week with Beijing’s pledge to introduce measures aimed at “lifting consumption vigorously” as part of a stimulus drive.President Xi Jinping and other key players said at the annual Central Economic Work Conference they would implement a “moderately loose” monetary policy, increase social financing and reduce interest rates “at the right time”.Lynn Song, ING’s chief economist for Greater China, said in a commentary: “Household confidence clearly remains soft, and it remains to be seen if the ‘vigorous support’ for consumption promised next year will be effective in stimulating a recovery.”We expect the rollout of supportive policies could take some time, but overall retail sales growth should recover in 2025.”Elsewhere in Asia, there were also losses in Sydney, Mumbai, Bangkok, Manila and Jakarta, though Singapore, Wellington and Taipei rose. Tokyo was flat.London and Frankfurt opened lower, while Paris also retreated after French President Emmanuel Macron named centrist Francois Bayrou as prime minister on Friday as he looks to end months of political crisis.Seoul fluctuated after Saturday’s impeachment of Yoon, with South Korea’s Constitutional Court starting proceedings Monday to determine whether to uphold the vote.While the martial law crisis shocked markets, observers said the economic impact would likely be limited, with some suggesting a stimulus package could be implemented in the new year.The Fed is widely expected to cut interest rates again Wednesday but there are fears it will have to slow its pace of easing next year owing to sticky inflation and bets that president-elect Donald Trump’s tax cuts and tariffs will reignite prices.The gathering comes after figures last week showed the consumer price index ticked up and wholesale prices accelerated.Investors are now pricing in a more than 75 percent chance the Fed holds rates steady in January, according to the CME FedWatch tool.The Bank of Japan is due to deliver its own policy decision after that, with debate swirling on whether officials will announce a third hike of the year, having moved in March for the first time since 2007 as price pressures continue to build.”The Bank of Japan will likely tighten monetary policy on Thursday,” said economists at Moody’s Analytics, pointing to a 25 basis-point lift.”The central bank is worried that yen weakness might spur inflation, hurting real wages and consumer spending.”But Tony Sycamore, an analyst at the IG trading group, said expectations were for officials to hold rates at 0.25 percent.However, he added that “the central bank’s current inaction is unlikely to persist, with any rate hold expected to come with strong forward guidance signalling a potential January hike”.”Broadening underlying pricing pressures, such as service prices, continue to point towards a more persistent inflationary trend. This environment suggests conditions are ripe for another rate hike, reinforcing expectations for tighter policy down the line.”On currency markets, the dollar rose against the yen.- Key figures around 0810 GMT -Tokyo – Nikkei 225: FLAT at 39,457.49 (close)Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: DOWN 0.9 percent at 19,795.49 (close)Shanghai – Composite: DOWN 0.2 percent at 3,386.33 (close)London – FTSE 100: DOWN 0.1 percent at 8.296,17Euro/dollar: UP at $1.0506 from $1.0504 on FridayPound/dollar: UP at $1.2634 from $1.2622Dollar/yen: DOWN at 153.54 yen from 153.60 yen Euro/pound: DOWN at 83.16 pence from 83.19 penceWest Texas Intermediate: DOWN 0.5 percent at $70.92 per barrelBrent North Sea Crude: DOWN 0.4 percent at $74.19 per barrelNew York – Dow: DOWN 0.2 percent at 43,828.06 (close)

L’Assemblée se penche lundi sur la loi spéciale, en l’absence de budget

Faute d’avoir adopté un budget pour 2025, les députés examineront lundi un projet de loi spéciale, destiné à garantir la continuité de l’Etat, en permettant de lever les impôts, dépenser des crédits sur la base du précédent budget, et autoriser l’Etat et la Sécurité sociale à emprunter.Une grande partie des députés souhaitent aussi que ce projet de loi permette d’indexer sur l’inflation le barème de l’impôt sur le revenu, afin d’éviter des hausses aux contribuables l’an prochain.Des amendements en ce sens ont été déposés, dont un signé notamment par le rapporteur général du Budget, Charles de Courson (Liot) et le président de la commission des Finances Eric Coquerel (LFI).Reste à savoir si ces amendements seront déclarés recevables par la présidente de l’Assemblée nationale, Yaël Braun-Pivet.Cette dernière n’avait pas fait connaître dimanche soir ses intentions. Mais, selon une source parlementaire, “il n’y a pas de suspense”, et Mme Braun-Pivet devrait suivre l’avis du Conseil d’Etat, qui a estimé mardi que la loi spéciale n’était pas le véhicule adéquat pour mettre en Å“uvre cette indexation. Avis partagé par le président du Sénat Gérard Larcher dans un entretien à La Tribune Dimanche.En l’absence de ces amendements, les débats qui commenceront à 16H00 devraient s’achever rapidement. Le Sénat examinera à son tour le texte mercredi.La présentation de ce texte, qui sera défendu au banc par le ministre du Budget démissionnaire, Laurent Saint-Martin, fait suite à la censure du gouvernement de Michel Barnier, après qu’il a engagé sa responsabilité sur le budget de la Sécurité sociale lundi dernier.Le successeur de M. Barnier, François Bayrou, s’active depuis sa nomination vendredi pour mettre sur pied un gouvernement, dont la mission première sera de faire adopter un budget pour 2025.Mais, constatant que “l’adoption de la loi de finances initiale pour 2025 n’interviendra pas avant plusieurs mois”, MM. de Courson et Coquerel ont rendu public dimanche un courrier au nouveau Premier ministre, demandant que puisse entrer en vigueur rapidement un certain nombre de dispositions fiscales faisant “consensus au sein des deux assemblées” et ayant un caractère “urgent”.”C’est notamment le cas de la prorogation d’impôts et crédits d’impôts venant à expiration le 31 décembre, de l’exonération fiscale et sociale de pourboires (…), de l’indexation sur l’inflation du barème de l’impôt sur le revenu, de l’extension du prêt à taux zéro ou encore (de certaines) dispositions en faveur des agriculteurs”, énumèrent-ils.Ainsi demandent-ils qu’un projet de loi comportant ces mesures soit inscrit à l’ordre du jour de la séance publique “dès la reprise des travaux parlementaires” à l’Assemblée, le 13 janvier.

Race against time for Mayotte rescuers after cycloneMon, 16 Dec 2024 06:03:29 GMT

Rescuers were racing against time Monday to reach survivors after a powerful cyclone hit the French Indian Ocean territory of Mayotte, laying to waste the territory’s many shantytowns.Cyclone Chido caused major damage to Mayotte’s airport and cut off electricity, water and communication links when it barrelled down on France’s poorest territory on Saturday.Prefect Francois-Xavier Bieuville …

Race against time for Mayotte rescuers after cycloneMon, 16 Dec 2024 06:03:29 GMT Read More »