Trump did shock and awe in 2025. Reality may bite in 2026

Donald Trump demolished part of the White House near the end of 2025 to make way for a giant ballroom, a fitting symbol for a president whose second term began like a political wrecking ball.In the second year of his second presidency, Trump will seek to turn his bulldozer into a lasting legacy. But in politics, as with his construction work, 2026 is going to involve heavy lifting.And the clock is ticking for the 79-year-old. After midterm elections in November that will be dominated by the cost of living, his Republican Party will have to contemplate life without Trump in 2028.”The shock and awe sent everyone on the other side reeling,” William Galston, senior fellow at Brookings Institution, told AFP. “But I have a feeling that the shock and awe is wearing off.” Trump’s immediate challenge will be to deliver on the promises of his first year back in the White House — an unprecedented display of presidential power that climaxed with the physical destruction of the East Wing.In his first 100 days, Trump issued a slew of executive orders aimed at ripping apart the government and laying off federal workers, aided by tycoon Elon Musk until their relationship blew up.He cracked down on migration, sent troops into Democratic-run cities, targeted political enemies for retribution, and used legal threats to cow businesses, universities and media organizations.On the world stage Trump was the great disruptor yet again.His tariffs sent the world’s economies scrambling, he held summits with the strongmen leaders of Russia and China, and see-sawed on Ukraine with his notorious Oval Office ambushing of Volodymyr Zelensky.His peace efforts brought fragile success in Gaza but war drums could be beating for Venezuela, with an American aircraft carrier now deployed off the coast.- ‘Promises’ -Trump insists his approach his working. “We’ve had a great nine months. Now we have to do it more than a few more times, we just have to keep it going,” he said last week.But the vultures have already started hovering as year two approaches, thanks to Trump’s rare predicament as a president serving non-consecutive terms.His critics believe the first cracks have started to show, in the face of poor off-year election results, worries about affordability, and a rebellion inside the Republican Party over the Jeffrey Epstein scandal.Looming over 2026 will be November’s mid-term elections.Democrats will be hoping to win back the House amid mounting discontent with the cost-of-living and with Trump himself, whose approval ratings keep hitting new lows.White House officials told AFP Trump is turning his focus to the economy, ramping up domestic travel even before the end of 2025 with a series of events and campaign-style rallies.Trump, they say, has got the message from voters worried about affordability and healthcare, even as critics in his own Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement have criticized his focus on foreign peace deals.”Candidate Trump 2024 made a series of promises to working-class Americans,” Galston said. “They’re going to have to get redeemed in the next 12 months.”- ‘Explosive’ 2028 looms -The question is how much Trump will be able to do.The Supreme Court is set to hand down a series of major judgments that may not all go his way despite its conservative bent, particularly on the legality of his tariffs.At the same time, Trump’s administration effectively admitted that tariffs are raising the cost of living — it recently lowered them on goods like coffee, beef and tomatoes.Still, the consummate political showman will keep selling his political brand.Two major events will help him — the FIFA World Cup, and the 250th anniversary of US independence, which Trump will celebrate with a cage fight on the White House lawn.”I’m not sure he’s a lame duck yet,” Garret Martin, professor of international relations at American University, told AFP.But he predicted an “explosive” situation over Trump’s succession, the battle for which will start as soon as the midterms are over.Vice President JD Vance has already staked out his claim, while MAGA ally-turned-foe Marjorie Taylor Green has emerged as a possible rival, despite her denials.Trump could throw further oil on the fire if he starts hinting again that he try to run for a third term in 2028, despite this being barred by the US Constitution.”Given the president’s inclination to litigate everything, I wouldn’t put it past him,” said Galston.

Xi évoque la question de Taïwan lors d’un entretien téléphonique avec Trump

Le président chinois Xi Jinping a évoqué Taïwan lundi lors d’un entretien téléphonique avec son homologue américain Donald Trump, estimant que le passage de l’île sous le pavillon de la Chine communiste était un enjeu international majeur, selon un média d’État.Pékin revendique Taïwan et n’écarte pas l’option d’une invasion armée pour s’en emparer, la soumettant à une forte pression militaire, économique et diplomatique.Selon l’agence Chine nouvelle, M. Xi a dit à M. Trump que Pékin et Washington devraient “maintenir l’élan dans leurs relations” après leur rencontre en octobre en Corée du Sud, où ils ont cherché à apaiser la guerre commerciale entre leurs pays.Le dirigeant chinois a estimé, durant l’échange téléphonique, que “le retour” de l’île “à la Chine était une partie importante de l’ordre international de l’après-guerre”, selon l’agence.”Au vu de la situation, il est d’autant plus important pour nous de préserver ensemble la victoire de la Deuxième Guerre mondiale”, a-t-il poursuivi.Après cet appel, Donald Trump a assuré dans un message sur son réseau Truth Social que la relation avec Pékin était “extrêmement solide”, sans mentionner la très sensible question de Taïwan.Le Premier ministre taïwanais Cho Jung-tai a réagi mardi aux propos de Xi Jinping en déclarant à la presse que Taïwan “est un État pleinement souverain” et qu'”il n’existe aucune option de retour”.- Trump et Takaichi -Dans le même temps, Sanae Takaichi, la Première ministre japonaise, a indiqué mardi à la presse qu’elle et Donald Trump avaient discuté de l’appel de ce dernier avec Xi Jinping, et eu un “large échange de points de vue sur le renforcement de l’alliance nippo-américaine et sur les défis et les enjeux auxquels est confrontée la région Indo-Pacifique”. Elle a ajouté que cette conversation était à l’initiative du président américain.Ces derniers jours, Pékin et Tokyo ont envoyé des lettres contradictoires à l’ONU sur la question taïwanaise.La dirigeante japonaise a récemment affirmé que des opérations armées contre Taïwan pourraient justifier une intervention militaire japonaise pour défendre l’île. La Chine voit dans ces paroles une provocation.Les États-Unis, eux, ne reconnaissent pas officiellement le statut d’État à Taïwan mais restent son soutien le plus puissant et son principal fournisseur d’armes.Le président américain a confirmé lundi qu’il se rendrait en Chine en avril et que le président chinois irait ensuite aux États-Unis.”Bien sûr, nous devons être très attentifs. Nous devons être préoccupés, mais pas excessivement inquiets, car nuire à Taïwan pourrait également nuire aux intérêts américains”, avait déclaré mi-novembre le chef de la diplomatie taïwanaise, Lin Chia-lung, à propos d’une éventuelle entente sino-américaine aux dépens de Taïwan.- Relations dans l’ensemble “stables” -MM. Trump et Xi se sont rencontrés pour la première fois depuis 2019 en octobre, à Busan, en Corée du Sud, engageant des discussions très suivies en pleine guerre commerciale entre les deux pays.La lutte entre les deux plus grandes économies mondiales, qui englobe tout, des terres rares au soja en passant par les droits portuaires, a secoué les marchés et perturbé les chaînes d’approvisionnement pendant des mois.Le secrétaire américain au Trésor, Scott Bessent, avait dit “espérer” que l’accord entre les États-Unis et la Chine sur les exportations de terres rares puisse être formellement conclu pour Thanksgiving dernier délai, soit le 27 novembre.A la suite de l’entrevue entre MM. Xi et Trump, Pékin avait accepté de suspendre, pour un an, des restrictions supplémentaires imposées quelques semaines plus tôt sur les exportations de terres rares, des métaux cruciaux pour le secteur technologique mondial notamment.Elles sont extraites dans de nombreux pays, y compris aux États-Unis, mais la Chine possède un quasi-monopole du traitement pour les rendre utilisables dans l’industrie.Dans le cadre de l’accord annoncé fin octobre, le gouvernement américain va réduire de 57% à 47% le niveau des droits de douane imposés aux produits chinois.La Chine s’est aussi engagée à acheter 12 millions de tonnes de soja américain d’ici à la fin de l’année, et 25 millions par an en 2026.”Depuis la réunion de Busan, les relations sino-américaines sont dans l’ensemble restées stables et ont continué de s’améliorer, ce qui a été largement salué par les deux pays et la communauté internationale”, a ajouté M. Xi, selon Chine nouvelle.

China’s Xi pushes Taiwan issue in call with Trump

Chinese leader Xi Jinping pressed the ever-sensitive issue of Taiwan in a phone call Monday with US President Donald Trump, as he stressed the need to build on a fragile trade truce between the two superpowers.China’s foreign ministry said the call touched on other issues, such as Ukraine, but Taiwan featured prominently, with China embroiled in a weeks-long diplomatic row with key US ally Japan over the self-governing island.China claims Taiwan as part of its territory, and Xi told Trump that its return was an “integral part of the post-war international order” forged in the joint US-China fight against “fascism and militarism”, according to the department.”Given what is going on, it is even more important for us to jointly safeguard the victory of WWII,” Xi told Trump.Taiwan Premier Cho Jung-tai hit back at Xi’s comments, telling reporters on Tuesday that Taiwan “is a fully sovereign state” and “there is no such option as return”.The latest bitter dispute between Tokyo and Beijing was triggered by new Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi suggesting this month that Tokyo could intervene militarily in any attack on Taiwan.While the United States does not officially recognise Taiwan’s claim to statehood, Washington remains the island’s most important partner and arms supplier.Trump praised “extremely strong” US-China relations in a social media post after the call, but made no mention of the contentious issue of Taiwan.According to China’s foreign ministry, Trump told Xi during their discussion that the United States “understands how important the Taiwan question is to China”.The US president’s statement also confirmed that he will visit China in April, and that Xi will go to Washington later in 2026.Meanwhile Takaichi said she also had a call with Trump and discussed his conversation with Xi, as well as US-Japan relations.We “held a wide-ranging exchange of views on strengthening the Japan-US alliance and the challenges and issues facing the Indo-Pacific region”, she told reporters, without elaborating.She said Trump had proposed the call.Both China and Japan have sent letters to the UN in recent days over the Taiwan issue.- Trade talks momentum -Xi and Trump’s call came after the pair met in late October for the first time since 2019, engaging in closely watched trade talks between the world’s top two economies.The Washington-Beijing tussle, which encompasses everything from rare earths to soybeans and port fees, has rocked markets and gummed up supply chains for months.A tentative deal reached in October’s meeting in South Korea saw Beijing agree to suspend for one year certain export restrictions on critical minerals.China is hugely dominant in the mining and processing of rare earths, which are essential for sophisticated electronic components across a range of industries, including auto, electronics and defence.Meanwhile, the United States said it will cut back tariffs on Chinese products, and Beijing will buy at least 12 million tonnes of American soybeans by the end of this year and 25 million tonnes in 2026.Xi told Trump on Monday that their two countries should “keep up the momentum”, according to the foreign ministry.He added that the “successful” meeting in South Korea “recalibrated the course of the giant ship of China-US relations and provided more momentum for it to sail forward steadily”.Since the meeting, China–US ties have “generally maintained a steady and positive trajectory, and this is welcomed by the two countries and the broader international community”, Xi said.Trump struck a similarly optimistic tone in his statement. “Now we can set our sights on the big picture,” he said.US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said Washington hoped to finalise a deal with Beijing for securing supplies of rare earths by the Thanksgiving holiday, which falls on Thursday.The two leaders also discussed the war in Ukraine — an issue high on Trump’s agenda as he pushes for an end to the war with a fresh deal that critics say largely satisfies Russian demands at the expense of Kyiv.China has positioned itself as a neutral party, and in Monday’s call Xi reiterated his backing to end the nearly four-year conflict.

Coup d’envoi de la commission d’enquête sur un audiovisuel public en pleine tourmente

En pleine période de turbulences pour l’audiovisuel public, une commission d’enquête sur sa “neutralité”, son “fonctionnement” et son “financement” s’ouvre mardi à l’Assemblée nationale avec l’audition de Martin Ajdari, patron de l’Arcom, le régulateur du secteur.M. Ajdari sera entendu à 16H30 et donnera le coup d’envoi d’un programme d’auditions très dense qui s’étalera jusqu’à début mars. La commission espère rendre son rapport quelques semaines plus tard.Les patronnes de France Télévisions et Radio France, Delphine Ernotte Cunci et Sibyle Veil, seront respectivement reçues les 10 et 17 décembre.”C’est la première fois qu’il y a une commission d’enquête sur l’audiovisuel public à l’Assemblée nationale”, s’est félicité auprès de l’AFP son rapporteur, Charles Alloncle, député du groupe UDR d’Eric Ciotti.C’est ce groupe, allié du Rassemblement national (RN), qui a souhaité créer cette commission dans la foulée de l’affaire Legrand-Cohen. Ces deux journalistes du service public ont été accusés de connivence avec le Parti socialiste après la diffusion, début septembre, d’une vidéo les montrant au restaurant avec deux de ses responsables.M. Alloncle dit vouloir mener “un travail de transparence au nom des Français” pour évaluer “l’utilisation de leurs impôts” par l’audiovisuel public et le respect de son “obligation de neutralité”, qui a selon lui connu “des entorses”.A gauche, certains redoutent une “instrumentalisation politique”. “C’est une commission d’enquête contre l’audiovisuel public et pas sur l’audiovisuel public!”, a tonné la députée écologiste Sophie Taillé-Polian auprès de la chaîne de télévision LCP.Monsieur Alloncle s’en défend: “Je ne serai pas partisan”.Cette commission s’ouvre dans une période tendue pour le service public.L’affaire Legrand-Cohen a été le catalyseur d’une guerre ouverte avec les médias dans le giron du milliardaire conservateur Vincent Bolloré, CNews, Europe 1 et le Journal du dimanche (JDD). Ces derniers ont vu dans cette affaire un signe de partialité du service public en faveur de la gauche.France Télévisions et Radio France ont contre-attaqué en les poursuivant en justice pour “dénigrement”. Et mi-septembre, Mme Ernotte Cunci a qualifié CNews de “chaîne d’extrême droite” dans un entretien au Monde.Outre les critiques sur sa neutralité, l’audiovisuel public s’inquiète pour ses finances car la dotation de l’Etat va baisser, en raison du contexte budgétaire difficile.Fin septembre, un rapport de la Cour des comptes a conclu que France Télévisions était dans une “situation financière critique”.

Mexican farmer protest blocks US border bridge

Hundreds of farmworkers and truck drivers blocked the Mexican side of a major border bridge with the United States on Monday as part of an ongoing national farmers’ strike.The protest blocked the Zaragoza-Ysleta International Bridge, which connects the US city of El Paso, Texas with Mexico’s Ciudad Juarez. An estimated 70 percent of trade between the two countries passes through such border crossings.The protest came in response to several reforms in the General Water Law promoted by Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, which would ban the sale of concession titles or their transfer. Similar demonstrations were conducted in 16 states across Mexico.”We don’t want them (the government) to monopolize the water and do whatever they want with the permits,” said Gerardo Fierro, one of the farmers at the protest.Protests also saw agricultural workers storm the customs offices in Ciudad Juarez.Javier Jurado, president of an agricultural business, said Sheinbaum’s administration wants to “hijack” the water and leave farmers “defenseless.”Interior Minister Rosa Icela Rodriguez addressed the protests at a press conference in Mexico City, saying that “there is no motive for the protests…unless they are politically motivated.”

Asia markets advance as odds for another Fed rate cut grow

Asian investors on Tuesday welcomed more dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials reinforcing hopes it will cut interest rates next month, while a tech-led rally on Wall Street soothed recent AI bubble worries.After a swoon in recent weeks, optimism appeared to be returning to trading floors as the chances of a third successive reduction in US borrowing costs increases as a weakening labour market offsets stubbornly high inflation. Fed governor Christopher Waller told Fox Business on Monday that inflation was not his main worry and that his “concern is mainly the labour market, in terms of our dual mandate” of the Fed to support jobs and keep a cap on prices.”So I’m advocating for a rate cut at the next meeting.”His comments echoed those of San Francisco Fed president Mary Daly, who told the Wall Street Journal: “On the labour market, I don’t feel as confident we can get ahead of it.”She added that the risk of a bust higher in inflation was a lower risk as the impact of US President Donald Trump’s tariffs had been less than expected.New York Fed boss John Williams said Friday that he still sees “room for a further adjustment” at the bank’s December 9-10 policy meeting.Analysts pointed out that the lack of pushback from the Fed on the remarks suggested boss Jerome Powell backed them and was preparing for another cut. Traders now see about a 90 percent chance of a reduction, having been around 35 percent last week.The prospect of lower borrowing rates pushed Wall Street sharply higher for a second successive day Monday, with the S&P 500 up around 1.6 percent.The Nasdaq charged 2.7 percent higher thanks to a surge in market heavyweights including Alphabet, Meta and Amazon.And the gains continued in Asia, which built on a strong Monday.Hong Kong, Shanghai, Seoul, Taipei, Manila and Jakarta all rallied, though there were pullbacks in Sydney, Singapore and Wellington.Tech firms have enjoyed a revival after suffering a period of selling in recent weeks, owing to concerns that the AI-led splurge this year may have pushed valuations too far and the huge investments made in the sector could take time to come to fruition. While there is debate about whether the advance has more legs, observers say the outlook is more nuanced.”AI remains one of the most powerful forces reshaping markets, but the tone is changing,” wrote Saxo Markets’ Charu Chanana.”Strong earnings from leading chipmakers… reassure investors that demand is real, yet the sharp swings in market reaction show that enthusiasm now sits alongside questions around sustainability, profitability, and execution.”The broad ‘everything goes up’ phase of the AI trade is fading. What replaces it is a more nuanced market: one that rewards fundamentals over narratives.”She added that investors now had to “separate the durable players from those caught up in the momentum”.Sentiment was also given a lift after Trump praised “extremely strong” US-China relations following a call with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping.He also said he will visit China in April and that Xi will make a trip to Washington later in 2026.However, he made no mention of the fact that they had spoken about the ever-sensitive issue of Taiwan. China’s foreign ministry said Trump had told Xi the United States “understands how important the Taiwan question is to China”.- Key figures at around 0230 GMT -Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 0.4 percent at 48,815.27 (break)Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: UP 1.2 percent at 26,031.67Shanghai – Composite: UP 1.1 percent at 3,877.86Euro/dollar: UP at $1.1526 from $1.1523 on MondayPound/dollar: DOWN at $1.3109 from $1.3110Dollar/yen: DOWN at 156.68 yen from 156.81 yenEuro/pound: UP at 87.92 pence from 87.91 penceWest Texas Intermediate: DOWN 0.2 percent at $58.73 per barrelBrent North Sea Crude: DOWN 0.2 percent at $63.23 per barrelNew York – Dow: UP 0.4 percent at 46,448.27 (close)London – FTSE 100: DOWN 0.1 percent at 9,534.91 (close)