Asian equities fluctuated Thursday, while the dollar held gains and bitcoin hit a fresh record as markets try to ascertain the consequences of a second Donald Trump presidency after he pledged to cut taxes and ramp up tariffs with an eye on China.The so-called Trump Trade went into overdrive Wednesday as it emerged that the tycoon would return to the White House after beating Democrat Kamala Harris, while his Republican Party gained control of the Senate and looked set to hold onto the House of Representatives.The decisive win is expected to pave the way for a series of business-friendly measures such as tax cuts and deregulation, though analysts warn that such moves — along with the pledge to impose duties on imports — could relight inflation.The prospect of higher inflationary pressure could complicate matters for Federal Reserve boss Jerome Powell as he tries to guide the economy to a soft landing while bringing prices under control. The central bank is expected to announce a 25-basis-point interest rate reduction on Thursday, but there are now questions over the chances of another next month, and the outlook for the new year.”Those discussions might have to wait (until) a subsequent meeting and encompass four issues,” said National Australia Bank’s Tapas Strickland.”Does the election result lead to meaningful changes for economic demand or inflation that warrant a different policy path?; have jitters about job-market deterioration been overstated?; where is inflation headed?; and what is the right level for rates, anyway?”Still, economists at Citi wrote in a client note ahead of Election Day: “The December rate cut decision will depend on labor market data and we expect a further softening to lead to a 50-basis-point rate cut.”After a mixed day on Wednesday, Asian stock investors continued to tread carefully.Tokyo edged down with Hong Kong, Sydney, Seoul, Wellington and Manila, but Shanghai, Singapore and Taipei rose.That came after a blockbuster day on Wall Street, where all three main indexes hit new highs, led by a 3.6 percent spike in the Dow.With Trump expected to once again set his sights on trade, observers said that will be a key issue for Asian governments, and particularly China after Washington and Beijing butted heads on numerous occasions during his first term.”The primary concern will be around tariffs and trade restrictions, which will have some impact but have been somewhat factored in,” said Joshua Crabb and Colin Graham at asset manager Robeco.”The offset to this will likely be a more aggressive policy response in Asia, both fiscally and monetarily. “The first indication of this will be stimulus in China, with the (National People’s Congress) scheduled to finalise on 8 November.”Traders are awaiting the end on Friday of a Chinese government meeting to hammer out a stimulus for the world’s number two economy, with expectations for hundreds of billions of dollars to help local authorities and support for banks to boost lending.On currency markets, the dollar held its gains against its peers after surging on the back of Trump’s victory as rate cut bets are pared back and Treasury yields rise.Bitcoin touched a new high just above $77,475 on optimism about the outlook for cryptocurrencies after the president-elect said on the campaign trail that he would make the United States the “bitcoin and cryptocurrency capital of the world”.- Key figures around 0230 GMT -Tokyo – Nikkei 225: DOWN 0.4 percent at 39,321.87 (break)Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: DOWN 0.1 percent at 20,525.33Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.2 percent at 3,391.22Dollar/yen: DOWN at 154.40 yen from 154.62 yen on WednesdayEuro/dollar: DOWN at $1.0727 from $1.0732Pound/dollar: UP at $1.2889 from $1.2880Euro/pound: DOWN at 83.23 pence from 83.30 penceWest Texas Intermediate: UP 0.4 percent at $71.96 per barrelBrent North Sea Crude: UP 0.5 percent at $74.29 per barrelNew York – Dow: UP 3.6 percent at 43,729.93 (close)London – FTSE 100: DOWN 0.1 percent at 8,166.68 (close)

Canada said Wednesday it is shutting down TikTok’s offices in the country following a security review, but people will still be allowed to use the popular video-sharing app.”The government is taking action to address the specific national security risks related to ByteDance Ltd.’s operations in Canada,” Francois-Philippe Champagne, minister of innovation, science and industry, said in a statement.Ottawa is not imposing restrictions on Canadian users of TikTok, which has come under scrutiny for its ownership under China-based ByteDance. “The decision to use a social media application or platform is a personal choice,” Champagne said.Canada banned TikTok from all government devices last year and launched a security review of the application.Champagne said Wednesday’s decision was made in accordance with a law that “allows for the review of foreign investments that may be injurious to Canada’s national security.”TikTok said it would challenge the decision in court.”Shutting down TikTok’s Canadian offices and destroying hundreds of well-paying local jobs is not in anyone’s best interest,” said a spokesperson. “We will challenge this order in court.”A cyber expert at the University of Ottawa, Michael Geist, said “there may well be good reasons” to ban the app but warned the move could be counterproductive.”Banning the company rather than the app may actually make matters worse since the risks associated with the app will remain but the ability to hold the company accountable will be weakened,” Geist wrote in an online post.TikTok also faces a ban in the United States if it remains owned by ByteDance — a threat the company is battling in a federal appeals court, arguing that it violates free speech rights. The US government alleges that TikTok allows Beijing to collect data and spy on users. It also says the platform is a conduit to spread propaganda. China and the company strongly deny these claims.

Ottawa said Wednesday it is shutting TikTok’s operations in Canada following a security review, but Canadians will still be allowed to use the popular video sharing app.”The government is taking action to address the specific national security risks related to ByteDance Ltd.’s operations in Canada,” Francois-Philippe Champagne, minister of innovation, science and industry, said in a statement.Ottawa is not imposing restrictions on Canadian users of TikTok, which has come under scrutiny for its ownership under China-based ByteDance. “The decision to use a social media application or platform is a personal choice,” Champagne said.Canada banned TikTok from all government devices last year and launched a security review of the application.Champagne said Wednesday’s decision was made in accordance with a law that “allows for the review of foreign investments that may be injurious to Canada’s national security.”A cyber expert at the University of Ottawa, Michael Geist, said “there may well be good reasons” to ban the app but warned the move could be counterproductive.”Banning the company rather than the app may actually make matters worse since the risks associated with the app will remain but the ability to hold the company accountable will be weakened,” Geist wrote in an online post.TikTok also faces a ban in the United States if it remains owned by ByteDance — a threat the company is battling in a federal appeals court, arguing that it violates free speech rights. The US government alleges that TikTok allows Beijing to collect data and spy on users. It also says the platform is a conduit to spread propaganda. China and the company strongly deny these claims.

Donald Trump’s election as US president brings back a champion of the oil industry to the White House, but experts warn that his push for low prices could be at odds with petroleum companies’ priorities. On the campaign trail, Trump repeatedly said he would “unleash” the US oil sector by boosting production and curbing the move towards renewable energy pushed by outgoing president Joe Biden. “We will have an administration that will work with the US oil and gas industry and not disparage them by calling them war profiteers or price gougers like they were called by Biden,” said Andy Lipow of Lipow Oil Associates.”I will lower the cost of energy,” Trump said at the Republican National Convention. “We will drill, baby, drill.”The president-elect’s vow to press for aggressive oil and gas development is, however, something experts say is not the main priority of a sector that has been criticized in the past for not carefully investing capital.”Producers have plenty of acreage they’re sitting on that they could be drilling, and some of it they’re drilling, but they’re also trying to placate their shareholders,” said Stewart Glickman of CFRA Research. “And the shareholders want dividends and buybacks just as much as they want volume growth.”A significant increase in output — already at record highs — risks glutting the market depending on how medium-term demand evolves in places like China, where the economic outlook is uncertain.”The problem is the capital markets,” said Bill O’Grady of Confluence Investment Management. “Investors don’t want them to do that (raise production) because they want to get paid.”Higher output could add to downward pressure on oil prices at a time when the strong dollar is also expected to weigh on the commodity.- Pressure to produce -US oil output began heading significantly higher in the 2010s with the emergence of shale production, but the domestic industry has faced obstacles along the way.With shale booming, Saudi Arabia opened the spigots enough to send crude prices down to $26 a barrel in 2016.That tumble in prices reverberated through the oil industry, leading to multiple bankruptcies.Darren Woods, chief executive of ExxonMobil, said last week that industry investment is more influenced by its drive for profitability than regulatory questions.”I don’t think the level of production in the US is being constrained by external restrictions,” Woods said. “I think it is being driven by the internal discipline of the industry.”Glickman expressed skepticism that Trump would alter the industry’s approach to investment, which is to only boost drilling when higher oil prices call for it.But O’Grady said the administration will push to bring crude prices lower, perhaps to between $50 to $60 a barrel, leading to lower gasoline prices.”I suspect they’re going to figure out a way to get what they want and produce more and bring down the price,” O’Grady said. “The industry doesn’t necessarily want that, but they may not have a whole lot of choice.”Another source of unease in the sector is Trump’s confrontational approach on trade, which could lead to higher tariffs, particularly on items from China.Tariff hikes discussed by the president-elect “would likely trigger slower economic growth both in the US and globally, reducing demand for liquid fuels, driving down oil prices, and ultimately affecting the refining industry,” said Wood Mackenzie, an energy data analytics company.The industry does, however, stand poised to benefit from Trump’s expected retreat from energy transition investments favored by the Biden administration.”There is a case to be made for oil prices going higher” over the medium term, according to Glickman.