What should happen next under the Gaza peace plan?
Negotiations on the next stage of the Gaza ceasefire continue without significant progress at a moment when the truce appears particularly fragile.The United States, alongside Qatar and Egypt, secured a truce in Gaza that came into effect on October 10 and has mostly halted two years of war between Israel and Palestinian militant group Hamas.The United Nations has since endorsed President Donald Trump’s peace plan, yet there has been little progress over issues of reconstruction and post-war governance. AFP explains what could happen next:- What is the plan? -The ceasefire was the result of Trump’s pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to end the war triggered by Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7, 2023.It remains fragile as both sides accuse each other almost daily of violations.Trump’s plan has various stages: a truce, the withdrawal of Israeli forces and setting up a new administration for Gaza, and then finally the reconstruction of the territory levelled by Israel’s retaliatory military campaign.The first phase included: – a withdrawal of Israeli forces on October 10 to a line that still gave them military control of over half of Gaza.- the release of all hostages, living or dead, held by Hamas or its allies.- an increase in humanitarian aid entering Gaza.Though all living hostages were released on October 13, one hostage body is still in Gaza.For now, the Israeli government demands that the last hostage’s remains are returned before any talks begin on the second phase via mediating countries: United States, Egypt, Qatar and Turkey.Egypt will also host a conference on Gaza’s reconstruction that will focus on the territory’s humanitarian needs but no date has yet been set.A lack of progress is not surprising. Experts point out the previous truce collapsed in March before the second phase had even begun.- Why is there little progress? -The process seems to be stuck mainly due to the Trump plan’s grey areas.”Israel doesn’t really seem to be putting any serious thought into what the post-war phase is supposed to look like,” said Michael Milshtein, a researcher at Tel Aviv University.The UN Security Council resolution, which endorsed the Trump plan in November, authorises the formation of a “Board of Peace”, a transitional governing body for Gaza — which Trump would theoretically chair.It also authorises the creation of an international stabilisation force to help secure border areas and demilitarise Gaza — but there is no deadline.Questions over how the plan would work in practice have generated debate in Israel and among the Palestinians.Israel wants Hamas to disarm and the group says it is not opposed to handing over part of its arsenal, but only as part of a Palestinian political process.Some ministers in Netanyahu’s government — one of the most right-wing in Israel’s history — reject the Trump plan.But Milshtein cautioned against taking “all those dramatic outbursts from government ministers too seriously.”- What are the political implications? -Trump is in the driver’s seat.”Israel has lost room to manoeuvre, has lost leverage,” Milshtein said, noting how different the situation is now compared to two months earlier when Netanyahu still made “maximalist” demands.”If Trump decides Turkey is a good partner for the international force, then that’s what’s going to happen,” Milshtein said.Meanwhile, Palestinian movements continue to work under Egypt’s auspices to establish a “technocratic, apolitical committee of competent Palestinians” from Gaza, tasked with running Gaza’s civil service and administration.”The approved names meet Israel’s requirements: neither Hamas nor Fatah (the movement of Palestinian President Mahmud Abbas),” said Palestinian politics expert Mkhaimar Abusada.”But at the end of the day, it’s not Israel who’s going to decide on every single thing here, they also have to deal with the Americans.”- What to expect? -Maintaining the truce is the priority at this stage.”We’re only talking about keeping a ceasefire alive here,” said Joost Hiltermann of the International Crisis Group, noting that the overall process had not been completed since some issues still needed to be resolved.But the Trump administration’s determination “may give grounds for a measure of optimism”, Hiltermann added.Numerous visits by US officials to Netanyahu in the past two months show there is fierce pressure on Israel to enforce the ceasefire, Abusada said.”The situation remains very murky, partly because Hamas itself is not straightforward about what it wants,” Abusada added.
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Russia’s Putin in India for defence, trade talks
Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in India on Thursday for a two-day visit aimed at deepening defence ties, as New Delhi faces heavy US pressure to stop buying oil from Moscow.Prime Minister Narendra Modi was at the airport to welcome the Russian leader in person, greeting him on the red carpet with a hug, before riding together in the same car.Putin, on his first visit to India since the Ukraine war, is accompanied by his Defence Minister Andrei Belousov, with possible deals on fighter jets and air defence systems expected to be discussed.In an interview with India Today, Putin said he was “very happy” to be meeting “my friend” Modi.”The range of our cooperation with India is huge,” he said in remarks translated by the broadcaster, citing ship and aircraft manufacturing, nuclear energy and space exploration.The Indian premier said he was “delighted to welcome my friend, President Putin to India”.”Looking forward to our interactions later this evening and tomorrow,” Modi said in a post on X.He will host Putin for a private dinner on Thursday evening, followed by a summit meeting on Friday.”India-Russia friendship is a time tested one that has greatly benefitted our people,” Modi added, posting a picture of them from inside the car.Trade relations are expected to feature prominently as India walks a diplomatic tightrope — relying on strategic Russian oil imports while trying not to provoke US President Donald Trump during ongoing tariff negotiations.- Energy imports -Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said talks to expand the supply of Russia’s advanced S-400 air defence systems had an “important place on the agenda”.Indian media reports suggested Moscow may also offer co-production of Russia’s Su-57 fighter jets.India is one of the world’s top arms importers, and Russia has long been a principal supplier.But New Delhi has also sought alternative suppliers, as well as boosting domestic production — with the Russian share of India’s arms imports falling from 76 percent in 2009-13 to 36 percent in 2019-23, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.Putin’s visit comes after Trump imposed 50-percent tariffs on most Indian products in August, citing Delhi’s continued purchases of Russian oil — revenue Washington argues helps fund the war in Ukraine.India, the world’s most populous nation, has become a major buyer of Russian oil, saving itself billions of dollars and providing Moscow with a much-needed export market after it was cut off from traditional buyers in Europe because of the war.But Delhi has recently cut down on crude imports under pressure from sanctions on Russia’s top oil producers Rosneft and Lukoil.The Indian government fears any fresh energy or defence deals with Russia could irk Trump, with possible ramifications on trade negotiations with Washington.Peskov said Moscow wanted to “maintain and increase the volume of our bilateral business with India, without allowing anyone to interfere”.Nandan Unnikrishnan, of the New Delhi-based think-tank Observer Research Foundation, told AFP: “There may be some reduction in energy purchases — under US pressure — but the overall direction of the ties will be maintained because both countries need each other at the strategic level.”- ‘Critical moment’ -A senior Indian foreign ministry official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said there was a need to address the trade imbalance “one way or the other”.Bilateral trade reached $68.7 billion in 2024-25 — almost six times higher than the pre-pandemic levels — but Indian exports accounted for only $4.88 billion.Delhi has been pressing Moscow for expanded market access for its key industries including pharmaceuticals, automobiles and the service sector.Harsh V Pant, a professor of international relations at King’s College London, said the visit was an attempt by the two countries “to reset their relationship at a critical geopolitical moment for both”.”For India, the optics is a statement of intent for strategic autonomy, and Putin, who rarely travels, is sending a message about the importance of the relationship by travelling here,” Pant told AFP.The Indian foreign ministry official described the ties between Moscow and Delhi as the “most stable relationship in modern times”.The official acknowledged the global geopolitical significance, but insisted that the meeting should be seen in the context as “just another annual summit”.The Russian president, in an interview shared by India Today on Thursday, acknowledged that the ongoing talks on Ukraine with the United States were complicated, but said they should be pursued.”This is a complex task and a challenging mission that President (Donald) Trump took upon himself,” Putin said in the remarks translated by the broadcaster.”Achieving consensus among competing parties is no easy task, but President Trump, truly, I believe — he sincerely tries to do this,” he added. “I think we should engage with this effort rather than obstruct it”.








