The Bank of Canada’s No. 2 official said policymakers need time to assess whether they’ve raised borrowing costs enough to curb inflation, reiterating that their path on rates can differ from peers.
(Bloomberg) — The Bank of Canada’s No. 2 official said policymakers need time to assess whether they’ve raised borrowing costs enough to curb inflation, reiterating that their path on rates can differ from peers.
In the first speech after keeping interest rates unchanged for the first time in nine meetings, Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers said Thursday that while officials saw a “mixed picture” looking at the data since January, “things are unfolding broadly in line” with the central bank’s forecast.
“We’ll need to see more evidence to fully assess whether monetary policy is restrictive enough to return inflation to 2%,” she said, according to the prepared text of a speech to the Manitoba Chambers of Commerce in Winnipeg.
The comments suggest policymakers are comfortable keeping borrowing costs at current levels, but that the conditional hold isn’t set in stone. The speech may push back financial market bets that the Bank of Canada will be soon pulled off the sidelines as the US Federal Reserve moves rates higher.
While Canada’s labor market remains tight and job gains have been “surprisingly strong” in recent months, “the data did show that, in general, higher borrowing costs continue to weigh on sectors that are sensitive to interest rates, such as housing,” Rogers said.
“With weak economic growth for the next couple of quarters, however, we expect that the tightness in the labor market will ease and, as it does, pressure on wages will come down,” she said.
On Wednesday, Governor Tiff Macklem made good on a January pledge to hold the benchmark overnight rate at 4.5%, the first pause among major central banks. Policymakers have said they’re prepared to hike again if there’s an “accumulation of evidence” that the economy and inflation aren’t cooling down as forecast.
Despite recent domestic developments evolving in line with the bank’s expectations, Rogers said global forces are a key risk to the projection.
Near-term outlooks for growth and inflation in the US and Europe are now “somewhat higher than we expected in January,” she said. “Since these are our main trading partners, this could point to some further inflationary pressure in Canada.”
But Rogers downplayed the influence of policy by other central banks as they try to tame inflation and reiterated that officials are focused on developments at home, where high household debt makes the economy more sensitive to rate increases.
“While we’re always thinking globally, we have to act locally,” she said. “We must tailor our policy to Canadian circumstances. And monetary policy needs to be forward-looking.”
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