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China’s exports start year slow as US trade war intensifies

China’s exports grew slower than expected in the first two months of the year, official data showed Friday, as a deepening trade war with the United States piles on economic malaise.Over a month into his second term as US president, Donald Trump has slapped sweeping tariffs on the export-dependent nation, citing Beijing’s failure to stem fentanyl flows as justification.China last year saw exports surge to a record high — a key economic lifeline as persistent woes including slow consumption and a property sector crisis weighed on activity.While experts say the full impact of Trump’s tariffs on China’s economy remains to be seen, early signs indicate that its overseas shipments are bound for choppy waters.Exports in US dollar terms in January and February combined grew 2.3 percent compared to the same period last year, official data from China’s customs administration showed Friday.The reading came in short of a Bloomberg forecast, which had anticipated exports to grow 5.9 percent during the first two months of 2025. It also represented a slowdown from 10.7 percent growth in December.The deceleration could be “partly due to the slowdown of export front loading, which was strong late last year to avoid the trade war”, wrote Zhiwei Zhang, President and Chief Economist at Pinpoint Asset Management.The full extent of damage caused by new US tariffs — imposed in two rounds of 10-percent blanket hikes in early February and this week — will likely begin to be seen next month, said Zhang.Imports, meanwhile, fell sharply during the first two months, a sign that domestic consumption remains mired in a slump.Shipments into China during the period fell 8.4 percent, well below a Bloomberg forecast of one percent growth, customs data showed.In addition to weak spending, the fall in imports could have been due to a decline in “imported parts and components as inputs for re-exports”, wrote Zhang.The figures come as China holds its biggest annual political gathering in Beijing, known as the “Two Sessions”.At Wednesday’s opening session of the country’s rubber-stamp legislature, Premier Li Qiang announced a national growth target of “around five percent” for this year — the same as 2024.Many experts say that goal is ambitious, given the accelerating headwinds facing the world’s second-largest economy.

China tariffs aimed at Trump fan base but leave wiggle room

China’s retaliatory tariffs against US farm produce from corn to chicken are designed to hurt Donald Trump’s voter base, but remain restrained enough to allow room for the adversaries to hash out a trade deal, analysts say.Since taking office in January, Trump has unleashed a storm of tariffs against friends and foes alike, this week hiking blanket duties on Chinese products, adding to a plethora of existing levies.Beijing swiftly responded with countermeasures targeting imports of American farm products — many of which are produced in the rural heartlands that voted resoundingly for Trump in the November election.The Chinese tariffs “are being calibrated to hit Trump where it hurts –- in the agricultural red states that voted him in,” said Even Pay, an agriculture analyst at Trivium China, a policy research firm.”These responses are also being rolled out rapidly… (indicating) officials in Beijing already have a game plan and likely have an extensive menu of potential targets,” she told AFP.China imported $29 billion of US farm produce in 2023, more than any other country, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).From Monday, Beijing will impose on top of existing tariffs an additional 10-15 percent on several US farm products.US chicken, wheat, corn and cotton will be levied the higher charge while soybeans, sorghum, pork, beef, aquatic products, fruit, vegetables and dairy will be subject to the slightly lower rate. – Red state pain -The countermeasures appear likely to cause more economic pain in Republican areas than Democrat ones, research indicates.A previous round of retaliatory tariffs that Beijing levied last month on imports of American energy, automotive and machinery products could affect up to 700,000 jobs, according to the Brookings Institution, a non-partisan US think tank.Nearly two-thirds of them are located in counties that voted for Trump at the last election, the analysis published in February concluded.An AFP breakdown also found that many of the jobs most likely to bear the brunt of Tuesday’s new levies seem to cluster in Republican strongholds.In the state of Illinois, won by Democratic challenger Kamala Harris in November, five of the country’s biggest soybean-producing counties still swung decisively for Trump.Widely used in animal feed, soybeans were the biggest US farm export to China in 2023, according to USDA data.The main soybean industry group this week repeated longstanding opposition to tariffs and warned of catastrophic consequences for farmers.And while Trump paid farmers subsidies to offset the pain of his first trade war, “this time around… the expense will be too large”, said Phillip Braun, clinical professor of finance at Northwestern University’s Kellogg School of Management.- Path to a deal? -Wu Xinbo, professor and dean of the Institute of International Studies at Shanghai’s Fudan University, said the measures would not turn up the political heat on Trump by squeezing US exports and worsening inflation.In the longer term, he said, “it will have an unfavourable impact on the Republicans in next year’s midterm elections”.But some research suggests that the impact of tariffs on red states may not be enough to turn Republican voters off Trump.The US leader’s first trade war with China in 2018 and 2019 also brought economic hardship to America’s southern and midwestern heartlands, according to a study published in January by the National Bureau of Economic Research, a non-partisan US think tank.But voters there still ended up more likely to vote Trump in the 2020 election, when he lost to Democrat Joe Biden, the report found.Despite a mixed record, Trump’s “commitment to tariffs and reinvigorating manufacturing… is strongly supported by his base,” said Drew Thompson, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University.”The more combative China gets, the more his base will support him,” Thompson told AFP.China’s foreign minister Wang Yi on Friday vowed to “firmly counter” trade pressure from Washington.But experts said Beijing had so far exercised restraint compared to Trump’s all-encompassing levies.The limited response was “due to the gap in means, strength and flexibility” relative to the US, said Shi Yinhong, an international relations professor at Peking University who has advised the Chinese government.But Susan Shirk, director emeritus of the 21st Century China Center at the University of California, San Diego, said it also showed Beijing hoped to talk through its trade problems with Washington.Beijing has “done nothing to preclude the possibility of negotiating a deal, which is the path they much prefer”, Shirk told AFP.

Trump backs off Mexico, Canada tariffs after market blowback

US President Donald Trump on Thursday delayed some tariffs targeting Canada and Mexico, leading Ottawa to halt an upcoming wave of countermeasures — offering a reprieve to companies and consumers after blowback on financial markets.Stock markets tumbled after Trump’s duties of up to 25 percent took effect Tuesday, as economists warned that blanket levies could weigh on US growth and raise inflation.Trump signed orders Thursday to hit pause on the fresh tariffs for Canadian and Mexican imports covered by a North American trade agreement, though he dismissed suggestions that his decisions were linked to market turmoil.The halt — which will last until April 2 — offers relief to automakers.In the auto sector, parts cross North American borders multiple times during production.Following talks with the “Big Three” US automakers — Stellantis, Ford and General Motors — Washington initially announced a one-month exemption on autos coming through the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).A White House official told reporters that about 62 percent of Canadian imports will still face the new tariffs, although much of these are energy products hit by a lower rate of 10 percent.About half of Mexican imports come through the USMCA.The latest moves make conditions “much more favorable for our American car manufacturers,” Trump said Thursday.Shortly after Trump’s decision, Canadian Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc wrote on X that his country “will not proceed with the second wave of tariffs on $125B of US products until April 2nd, while we continue to work for the removal of all tariffs.”Trump said more tariffs would come on April 2, adding they will be “reciprocal in nature.” He had earlier vowed reciprocal levies to remedy practices Washington deems unfair.At that point, Canadian and Mexican goods could still face levies.The US president also said he would not modify broad tariffs for steel and aluminum imports, which are due to take effect next week.US stock markets slumped again Thursday despite the new measures.- ‘Tremendous progress’ -Trump told reporters Thursday in the Oval Office that he had a “very good conversation” with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum.He claimed “tremendous progress” on both illegal immigration and drugs coming into the United States — both reasons that Washington cited in imposing levies on Mexico, Canada and China.His remarks stood in sharp contrast to simmering tensions with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.Trudeau said Thursday that Ottawa will remain in a trade war with Washington for “the foreseeable future” even if there are “breaks for certain sectors.””Our goal remains to get these tariffs, all tariffs removed,” Trudeau added.Canada contributes less than one percent of fentanyl to the illicit US supply, according to Canadian and US government data.China, meanwhile, has pushed back on US allegations of its role in the fentanyl supply chain, and instead touted its cooperation with Washington on the issue.”The United States should not repay kindness with resentment, let alone impose tariffs without reason,” Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said in Beijing.”China-US economic and trade ties are mutual. If you choose to cooperate, you can achieve mutually beneficial and win-win results. If you use only pressure, China will firmly counter.”- ‘Economic reality’ -For Scott Lincicome, vice president of general economics at the Cato Institute, Trump’s easing of tariffs was “a recognition of economic reality” — that tariffs disrupt supply chains and the burden falls mainly on Americans.”The market doesn’t like them and certainly doesn’t like the uncertainty surrounding them,” Lincicome told AFP.Since taking office for his second term in January, Trump has made tariff threats on allies and adversaries alike.US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Thursday that he was not concerned Trump’s tariffs would be inflationary, adding that any impact on prices would likely be temporary.Trump has referred to tariffs as a source of US government revenue and a way to remedy trade imbalances.The US trade deficit surged to a new record in January, ballooning 34 percent to $131.4 billion as imports rose.Analysts say the deficit was likely bolstered by gold imports, but that data suggests businesses were also trying to get ahead of tariffs.

Australian casino firm scrambles for cash to survive

Troubled Australian casino operator Star Entertainment said Friday it is trying to sell its stake in a major resort to raise desperately needed cash.Shares in the group, which employs more than 8,000 people, have been suspended from trading since March 3 after it failed to post half-year financial results citing liquidity woes.Star Entertainment is considered an economically important tourist draw with casinos, bars, restaurants and hotels at resorts in Sydney, Brisbane and the Gold Coast.The firm said Friday it has been in talks with two Hong Kong-based firms — Chow Tai Fook and Far East Consortium — which are partners in the joint venture that owns its Brisbane resort.Star Entertainment was discussing selling its 50-percent stake in the Brisbane joint venture to the two partners — so far in vain, it said.”The Star has been unable to reach an agreement with its Joint Venture Partners to date,” the casino group said in a statement.The company is widely reported to be close to falling into administration, and it has admitted there is “material uncertainty” over its future.The casino firm last traded at Aus$0.11 a share (US$0.07) with a market capitalisation of Aus$316 million — a shadow of its Aus$5 billion-plus value from about seven years ago. Its finances have been hit by the cost of developing the new Brisbane casino complex, the threat of an anti-money laundering fine and stricter regulation in the industry, according to the Australian Financial Review.The company has previously been accused of not adequately policing criminal infiltration and doing little to vet the sources of money coming into the business. Watchdogs found that one patron — a Chinese real estate billionaire barred by the Australian government for being an agent of Chinese influence — had ploughed more than a billion dollars into Star over several years. Another high-rolling patron was allegedly involved in human trafficking. The group was also temporarily delisted from the Australian Securities Exchange last year after failing to post its annual financial results on time.Australians are infamously big gamblers, losing Aus$31.5 billion in the 2022-23 financial year, including Aus$3.6 billion in casinos, according to the latest government data.

US and European stocks gyrate on tariffs and growth

Wall Street stocks resumed their downward slide on Thursday amid uncertainty over US President Donald Trump’s shifting trade policy, while European bourses advanced following an ECB interest rate cut.Major US indices spent the entire day in the red, shrugging off Trump’s moves to soften tariff actions.Trump on Thursday unveiled a temporary rollback to steep tariffs targeting Canada and Mexico, broadening a step announced Wednesday that gave relief to the auto sector. Stocks had rallied after the auto reprieve, but this time all three major indices dropped one percent or more.Art Hogan of B. Riley Wealth Management said the uncertainty around trade policy is “affecting the real economy,” dragging down consumer sentiment and business investment.”The longer that goes on, the more the economy slows,” he said.In Europe, Frankfurt’s DAX index hit a new record as plans for a massive German defense and infrastructure investment program stoked optimism for pulling the eurozone’s largest economy out of recession.France and other eurozone markets ended the day higher as the European Central Bank followed through with an expected quarter-point cut in interest rates.But ECB President Christine Lagarde said that rising trade tensions could knock eurozone economic growth.”We have risks all over and uncertainty all over,” Lagarde added.The ECB cut its growth forecasts for this year and the next while raising its 2025 inflation estimate.Meanwhile, bond yields continued to climb, and the rise extended to Asia, with Japanese 10-year yields hitting 1.5 percent for the first time in more than a decade.The increase signals expectations of higher inflation and that governments, companies and consumers will need to pay more to borrow.- Asia rises -Wednesday’s announcement of the tariff delay buoyed Asian stock markets, in particular lifting the auto sector.The move “helped reinforce hopes there may be some flexibility in the new administration’s trade policy,” said AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.Chinese stocks responded well to Beijing announcing its 2025 growth target of around five percent, at the start of its annual meeting of the National People’s Congress on Wednesday.The meeting has heightened investors’ expectations that a huge fiscal stimulus package could be coming. China has vowed to make domestic demand its main economic driver despite facing persistent economic headwinds, and as an escalating trade war with the US hit exports.- Key figures around 2150 GMT -New York – Dow: DOWN 1.0 percent at 42,579.08 (close)New York – S&P 500: DOWN 1.8 percent at 5,738.52 (close)New York – Nasdaq Composite: DOWN 2.6 percent at 18,069.26 (close)London – FTSE 100: DOWN 0.8 percent at 8,682.84 (close)Paris – CAC 40: UP 0.3 percent at 8,197.67 (close)Frankfurt – DAX: UP 1.5 percent at 23,419.48 (close)Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 0.8 percent at 37,704.93 (close)Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: UP 3.3 percent at 24,369.71 (close)Shanghai – Composite: UP 1.2 percent at 3,381.10 (close)Euro/dollar: DOWN at 1.0787 from 1.0789 on WednesdayPound/dollar: UP at $1.2882 from $1.2895Dollar/yen: DOWN 147.97 from 148.88 yenEuro/pound: UP at 83.72 pence from 83.67 penceBrent North Sea Crude: UP 0.2 percent at 69.46 per barrelWest Texas Intermediate: FLAT at $66.31 per barrelburs-jmb/des

Taiwan says TSMC investment ‘historic moment’ for US ties

Taiwanese chipmaking giant TSMC’s plan to invest $100 billion in the United States was a “historic moment” for Taiwan-US ties, the island’s President Lai Ching-te said on Thursday. TSMC, which counts Apple and Nvidia among its clients, announced the plan this week after US President Donald Trump threatened to impose tariffs on overseas-made chips.It will take the total amount the world’s biggest chipmaker has pledged to invest in the United States to $165 billion, which TSMC said was the “largest single foreign direct investment in US history”.Lai hailed the “historic moment for Taiwan-US relations” at a joint news conference with TSMC chairman and chief executive C.C. Wei at the Presidential Office.It followed Trump’s accusations that Taiwan stole the US chip industry and his threats to impose tariffs of up to 100 percent, as well as Taipei’s promises to invest more in the United States.TSMC has long faced demands to move more of its production away from Taiwan, with fears that supplies of the critical technology could be disrupted in any conflict with Beijing.China has upped military pressure on Taiwan in recent years to press its claim of sovereignty over the self-ruled island, where TSMC has its headquarters and the bulk of its fabrication plants.Trump recently ratcheted up the pressure on TSMC and other chip manufacturers by publicly mulling the introduction of tariffs of 25 percent, or higher, on all chips made outside the United States.- US demand ‘extremely high’ -Lai said on Thursday the government was not pressured by Washington “during TSMC’s US investment process”.Wei said TSMC’s expansion was driven by growing demand from US clients and that it would not affect the company’s investments in Taiwan. TSMC planned to build 11 new production lines in Taiwan this year to meet demand, Wei said, adding “our production capacity is not enough”.”Whenever TSMC builds a production line in any location outside Taiwan, it is always driven by customer demand,” Wei said.”We went to Japan because of Japanese customer demand, to Germany because of German customer demand, and four years ago to the US because of American customer demand,” he said.”Now, we are increasing our investment because the demand from US customers is extremely high.”- ‘Taiwan’s TSMC’ -Taiwan is a global powerhouse in semiconductor manufacturing, with more than half of the world’s chips and nearly all of the high-end ones made there.The concentration of chip manufacturing in Taiwan has long been seen as a “silicon shield” protecting it from an invasion or blockade by China — and an incentive for the United States to defend it.TSMC’s new $100 billion investment sparked concerns that Trump was trying to take control of the company’s production and that its growing US footprint could weaken Washington’s willingness to protect Taiwan.Premier Cho Jung-tai said earlier on Thursday “TSMC is ‘Taiwan’s TSMC'” and the company’s production capacity and advanced technology were “rooted in Taiwan”.

DeepSeek success shows China’s ‘ability to innovate’: official

The shock entrance of DeepSeek in the race to develop advanced artificial intelligence has put the world on notice as to China’s innovation prowess, a high-ranking Beijing official said Thursday.The startup released a new version of its AI chatbot in January, sending shockwaves across global markets.DeepSeek wowed industry insiders with its apparent ability to rival or even surpass the capabilities of Western competitors like ChatGPT at a fraction of the cost.”DeepSeek has stood out in the global field of AI,” said Wu Qing, Chairman of China’s Securities Regulatory Commission.”It is not just that the field of AI has been deeply shocked, but now also the world and the financial community have a new understanding of China’s ability to innovate in science and technology,” he said.The official added that DeepSeek had contributed to a “recent re-evaluation of Chinese assets”.”If someone does not talk about DeepSeek these days, it seems that they’re not fashionable,” Wu said.”But this phenomenon is indeed worthy of our high attention.”Recent weeks have seen shares in Chinese tech titans surge.Last month, long-shunned Alibaba co-founder Jack Ma was seen meeting President Xi Jinping at a business symposium — signalling a more welcoming stance from Beijing towards its domestic tech sector.Alibaba’s shares rose more than eight percent during Thursday trading in Hong Kong after it unveiled an AI model with a performance it said was “comparable” to DeepSeek.Investors are watching for announcements this week from Beijing — where officials are convening for a key annual political event known as the “Two Sessions” — on further government support to boost innovation and spending.Wu’s comments came during a press conference on China’s economy, which has struggled to fully recover from the pandemic.Authorities are banking on advanced technology as a lifeline to reach official growth targets this year as heightened trade winds batter the export-dependent nation.

China vows to fight US trade war ‘to the end’

China vowed to fight a trade war with the United States “to the end” on Thursday, as tariffs from Washington buffeted the global economy and threatened to hit Beijing’s lagging growth.Beijing set an ambitious annual growth target of around five percent this week, vowing to make domestic demand its main economic driver as the escalating trade confrontation with the United States hit exports.US President Donald Trump imposed more blanket tariffs on Chinese imports this week, following a similar move last month — levies expected to hit hundreds of billions of dollars in total trade between the world’s two largest economies.Commerce Minister Wang Wentao warned that US tariffs threatened to “disrupt the stability of the global industrial supply chain and hinder the development of the global economy”.”If the United States continues down this wrong path, we will fight to the end,” he told reporters, decrying what he called “unilateralism and bullying” by Washington.China’s top economic planner Zheng Shanjie acknowledged that “uncertainty in the external environment is further increasing”.But, he said, China has “full confidence” that it can reach its growth goal this year.”We have the basic support and guarantee of achieving this year’s growth target of around five percent,” Zheng said, speaking alongside Wang on the sidelines of Beijing’s annual “Two Sessions” political meetings.”We are also facing some problems — such as insufficient domestic demand, production and operation difficulties in some industries and some enterprises,” Zheng added.”However, we feel that these difficulties and challenges… can all be overcome and solved”.- Spending to expand -China’s headline growth figure, announced by Premier Li Qiang on Wednesday at an annual Communist Party conclave, was broadly in line with an AFP survey of analysts.But experts say it is ambitious considering the scale of China’s economic challenges — and are hoping officials will unveil further economic support this week.On Thursday, central bank chief Pan Gongsheng said the country would cut interest rates further this year “as appropriate, based on domestic and international economic and financial situations”.Beijing’s central bank cut two key interest rates to historic lows in October.Finance Minister Lan Fo’an vowed Thursday to “further expand” fiscal spending in 2025.That, he said, would promote “the sustainable and healthy development of the economy and society”.China has struggled to regain its footing since the Covid-19 pandemic, as domestic consumption flags and a persistent debt crisis in the vast property sector drags on.Trump’s latest round of tariffs has deepened the challenges.Beijing announced its own measures on Tuesday in retaliation to Washington’s latest tariff hike and vowed it would fight a trade war to the “bitter end”.The moves will see China impose levies of up to 15 percent on a range of US agricultural products including soybeans, pork and wheat starting from early next week.

7-Eleven owner seeks to fend off takeover with buyback, US IPO

The Japanese owner of 7-Eleven announced on Thursday a raft of new measures to fend off a takeover by a Canadian rival, including a huge share buyback and an IPO of its US unit.The announcements are the latest twist in a saga that began last year, when Seven & i rebuffed a takeover offer worth nearly $40 billion from Canada’s Alimentation Couche-Tard (ACT).”We’re convinced that now is the time to take our initiatives to the next level, and our leadership will further pursue the improvement of shareholder value and implement transformative policies,” outgoing company president Ryuichi Isaka said in a statement.”We have decided to conduct an initial public offering (IPO) of our SEI shares that operate the North American convenience store business, 7-Eleven, on one of the major US stock exchanges by the second half of 2026,” Seven & i said.It said it plans to buy back two trillion yen ($13.2 billion) of its own shares, using funds generated by that IPO and other restructuring measures.The company also plans to sell its non-convenience-store business — comprising supermarkets, restaurants and other assets — to US private investment firm Bain Capital for $5.4 billion.Seven & i, which operates some 85,000 convenience stores worldwide, also named Stephen Dacus as its first foreign chief executive to replace Isaka.Reports of the raft of measures, that appeared before the retailer’s announcement, caused its shares to surge as much as 10 percent in afternoon trade.They later trimmed those gains and were trading up 6.5 percent before the market closed.- Behemoth -ACT’s takeover would be the biggest foreign buyout of a Japanese firm, merging the 7-Eleven, Circle K and other franchises to create a global convenience store behemoth.Japan’s Yomiuri daily reported this week that a special committee scrutinising ACT’s raised offer of reportedly around $47 billion had decided formally to reject that too.Isaka told a news conference on Thursday that an ACT takeover would pose “serious US antitrust challenges”, and that there had been “no meaningful progress” towards resolving them.”Hence the proposal has no assurance that it would be in the best interest of group shareholders and other stakeholders,” Isaka said through an interpreter.He added however: “We will continue to examine and consider all strategic options, including the proposal from ACT, in order to realize the unlocking of our share value for our shareholders.”- Rice balls -7-Eleven, the world’s biggest convenience store brand, began in the United States but has been wholly owned by Seven & i since 2005.Its stores are a beloved institution in Japan, selling everything from concert tickets to pet food and fresh rice balls, although sales have been flagging.ACT, which began with one store in Quebec in 1980, runs nearly 17,000 convenience store outlets worldwide, including Circle K.Dacus told the news conference that his father was a 7-Eleven franchisee in the United States and that he worked weekend night shifts as a teenager.”I had no way of knowing that nearly 50 years later, I would be selected to run the global parent company of my father’s small store,” Dacus said in Japanese.”As you all know, recently we have lost some momentum. We have to humbly face the fact that we have lost some market share,” he added through an interpreter.