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Social media giant TikTok plans to completely shut down its operations in the United States this Sunday if a ban ordered by legislators goes through as planned, a report said.The platform, which counts over 170 million American users, will implement an immediate blackout rather than allowing existing users continued access as had been expected, according to sources who spoke to The Information.The apparent shutdown comes as TikTok faces a January 19 legislative deadline to sever ties with its Chinese parent company ByteDance or cease US operations. While the law only requires app stores to remove TikTok and cloud providers to stop hosting US user data, the company will opt for a full suspension of service, The Information said.Users attempting to open the app after the deadline will encounter a message redirecting them to a statement about the federally mandated ban, along with options to download their personal data, the report said.TikTok’s reported plan would follow skeptical questioning from Supreme Court justices during oral arguments last Friday, suggesting they would uphold the ban. The company has challenged the law on First Amendment grounds, which protect freedom of speech.The shutdown would coincide with the US presidential transition, as Donald Trump, who has expressed opposition to the ban, takes office Monday. ByteDance has so far refused to sell TikTok’s US operations, though analysts say this position could shift as the reality of a forced market exit looms.In an internal email obtained by The Verge on Tuesday, TikTok assured its US employees that their “employment, pay, and benefits are secure” and offices will remain open even if the situation remains unresolved by Sunday’s deadline. The company told staff it was “planning for various scenarios.”TikTok declined to comment when contacted by AFP.

European stock markets rose Wednesday as traders focused on inflation data in Britain and the United States.London led the way in Europe as official figures showed an unexpected dip to UK annual inflation, easing some pressure on the Labour government as it struggles with growing the economy.The pound steadied versus the dollar and euro, with analysts forecasting that the Bank of England would likely cut its key interest rate next month as the rate of price increases cools.Separate official data showed Europe’s biggest economy Germany contracted for a second straight year in 2024, with little hope of a strong recovery ahead of national elections next month.Market watchers are now awaiting the release of US consumer-price inflation data later in the day.A below-forecast read on US wholesale prices provided a little relief and helped the Dow and S&P 500 end higher Tuesday, though sentiment remains clouded by expectations that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates as much as hoped this year.After Wall Street’s broadly positive lead, Asian markets fluctuated Wednesday.”The S&P 500 is expected to trade flat at the open as investors wait on tenterhooks for the latest US inflation snapshot,” noted Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown.”If there’s a jump in the core rate of inflation in the US it could quash hopes of an interest-rate cut this year and could lead to fresh market jitters,” she added.In Asia, Tokyo’s stock market ended down, though games giant Nintendo piled on more than two percent and briefly hit a record high as traders anticipate it will soon release its much-anticipated Switch 2 console. The Nikkei 225’s drop also came as the yen strengthened, with traders weighing the chances of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan this month.Also in focus this week is the release of Chinese 2024 growth data, with expectations that it could come in below the previous year and be among the slowest in more than three decades.Leaders have unveiled a string of measures to reignite the economy, with a particular emphasis on consumers and the troubled property sector, though there are fears the return of President-elect Donald Trump could see another painful China-US trade war.Trump has warned he will impose tariffs of as much as 60 percent on imports from China, and observers say Beijing has likely kept its powder dry with regards stimulus as it prepares for the next four years.- Key figures around 1100 GMT -London – FTSE 100: UP 0.7 percent at 8,262.19 points Paris – CAC 40: UP 0.4 percent at 7,450.52Frankfurt – DAX: UP 0.7 percent at 20,414.20Tokyo – Nikkei 225: DOWN 0.1 percent at 38,444.58 (close)Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: UP 0.3 percent at 19,286.07 (close)Shanghai – Composite: DOWN 0.4 percent at 3,227.12 (close)New York – Dow: UP 0.5 percent at 42,518.28 (close)Euro/dollar: UP at $1.0311 from $1.0310 on TuesdayPound/dollar: UP at $1.2228 from $1.2211Dollar/yen: DOWN at 156.78 yen from 157.98 yenEuro/pound: DOWN at 84.33 pence from 84.40 penceBrent North Sea Crude: FLAT at $79.93 per barrelWest Texas Intermediate: UP 0.2 percent at $76.50 per barrel

After travelling to Tokyo for meetings, Yoshiki Kojima’s IT company employees crash out in a capsule hotel, as a tourism boom makes regular rooms too pricey for business trips.A weak yen is attracting more visitors than ever to Japan, with national tourism figures released Wednesday showing a new record of an estimated 36.8 million arrivals last year.But that is also raising prices for Kojima’s staff and other Japanese business travellers.Capsule hotels, a Japanese institution, offer claustrophobic bed-sized pods, often double-stacked in rows.They have a “shabby” reputation, Kojima said, so he found a more comfortable establishment that boasts high-end mattresses and a TV in each capsule.”It’s clean, convenient and has a traditional shared bath house. My employees say it’s fun,” he told AFP.A night in a standard capsule there starts at 5,000 yen ($30) — but its rates are rising, according to Kojima.It is still cheaper than a basic private room at a business hotel, which in the Japanese capital cost 20,048 yen ($130) on average in November.That’s up from the pre-pandemic peak of 12,926 yen ($80 at today’s rates) in April 2019, shows research by Tokyo Hotel Kai, a group of around 200 hotels.”I’m happy there are so many visitors to Japan, but I’m agonising every day about finding a flexible way” to run the business, said Kojima, who needs to bring around 20 to 30 employees to the capital for company-wide meetings.- ‘What do I do?’ -The Japanese economy benefits from the surge in foreign tourists because it creates jobs and the visitors spend money, analyst Takuto Yasuda of NLI Research Institute said.”But it has a negative impact as well, such as Japanese people not being able to travel, or their daily lives being affected by overtourism,” he told AFP.Japan’s chronic labour shortages and an increase in hotel supply costs are also pushing up the fees, he added.Keisuke Morimoto, who runs a kimono shop in Japan’s western Nara region, was shocked when he learned a two-night stay at a Tokyo hotel would cost him 60,000 yen. “Seriously, what do I do for the hotel for my business trip?” he wrote X.Morimoto told AFP he is thinking of using short-term rental platform Airbnb, which has cheaper options.Some tourist spots are fighting back against overtourism, including the ancient capital of Kyoto, where residents have complained of visitors harassing the city’s famed geisha.Now Kyoto plans to hike its accommodation taxes, including by up to 10 times for top-end hotels, the mayor said Tuesday.- Concentrated demand -Japan wants to welcome 60 million visitors a year by 2030.This could mean even more expensive domestic business trips to Tokyo, Osaka and major cities, where demand for hotel bookings has spiked thanks to crowds of first-time visitors.The number of foreign visitors to Tokyo has doubled since 2019, and was up 1.5 times in Osaka, government data show.To even things out, the government wants tourists to visit lesser-known destinations, encouraging them to stay at least two nights in rural towns.Yasuda agrees that funnelling visitors elsewhere is key to easing pressure on city hotels.The occupancy rate in 2024 for business hotels in Tokyo run by major operator Fujita Kanko was 88 percent, and average rates were up 26 percent from last year, the company said.”Currently, demand is concentrated in major cities such as Tokyo and Osaka, so we are hoping that this will spread to Sapporo, Naha and other smaller regions,” the firm said.IT company boss Kojima may resort to drastic measures.”I’m thinking of moving our headquarters to Sapporo, or organising a meeting in a hot spring town near Tokyo,” he said.”There are many areas that aren’t flooded with tourists, and we can take advantage of that.”

Beijing on Wednesday said it “firmly opposes” a US move to effectively bar Chinese technology from smart cars in the American market, saying alleged risks to national security were “without any factual basis”.”Such actions disrupt economic and commercial cooperation between enterprises… and represent typical protectionism and economic coercion,” foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said, adding: “China firmly opposes this.”Tuesday’s announcement in the United States, which also pertains to Russian technology, came as outgoing President Joe Biden wrapped up efforts to step up curbs on China, and after a months-long regulatory process.The rule follows an announcement this month that Washington is mulling new restrictions to address risks posed by drones with tech from adversaries such as China and Russia.US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said that modern vehicles contain cameras, microphones, GPS tracking and other technologies connected to the internet.”Cars today aren’t just steel on wheels — they’re computers,” she said.”This is a targeted approach to ensure we keep PRC and Russian-manufactured technologies off American roads,” she added, referring to the People’s Republic of China.But Guo slammed the move, telling journalists in Beijing that China would “take necessary measures” to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests.”What I want to say is that the US, citing so-called national security, has restricted the use of Chinese connected vehicle software, hardware, and entire vehicles in the United States without any factual basis,” he told a regular press conference.”China urges the US to stop the erroneous practice of overgeneralising national security and to stop its unreasonable suppression of Chinese companies.”- ‘Trying to dominate’ -The final US rule currently applies just to passenger vehicles under 10,001 pounds (about 4.5 tonnes), the Commerce Department said.It plans, however, to issue separate rulemaking aimed at tech in commercial vehicles like trucks and buses “in the near future”.For now, Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer BYD, for example, has a facility in California producing buses and other vehicles.National Economic Advisor Lael Brainard added that “China is trying to dominate the future of the auto industry”.But she said connected vehicles containing software and hardware systems linked to foreign rivals could result in misuse of sensitive data or interference.Under the latest rule, even if a passenger car were US-made, manufacturers with “a sufficient nexus” to China or Russia would not be allowed to sell such new vehicles incorporating hardware and software for external connectivity and autonomous driving.This prohibition on sales takes effect for model year 2027, and also bans the import of the hardware and software if they are linked to Beijing or Moscow.

Stock markets were mixed Wednesday as traders assess the economic outlook ahead of Donald Trump returning to the White House next week, with focus now on the release of key US inflation data.A below-forecast read on wholesale prices provided a little relief and helped the Dow and S&P 500 end in the green, though sentiment remains clouded by a resignation to the idea that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates as much as hoped this year.Blockbuster employment figures on Friday, which followed a better-than-expected read on job openings, reinforced the view that the world’s top economy and labour market were still in rude health.That came after the central bank in December indicated in its so-called “dot plot” that it would likely only cut rates twice in 2025, compared with four previously flagged — taking the wind out of the sails of a market rally at the end of the year.Investors will be poring over the consumer price index later Wednesday, with analysts warning that a strong reading could even stoke talk of a possible rate hike as the Fed’s next move.SWBC’s Christopher Brigati wrote in a commentary: “Even prior to the release of the dot plot in December, we’ve been cautious about the increasing possibility that the Fed would have to dial back further rate cuts in 2025, calling for no cuts during the year.”It appears that there is growing sentiment that the Fed will be less accommodating going forward. Furthermore, it is appearing increasingly likely that the Fed’s rate-cutting efforts beginning in September may have been premature, given more recent economic data.”After Wall Street’s broadly positive lead, Asian markets fluctuated.Tokyo slipped though games giant Nintendo piled on more than two percent and briefly hit a record high as traders anticipate it will soon release its much-anticipated Switch 2 console. The Nikkei 225’s drop also came as the yen strengthened, with traders weighing the chances of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan this month.Shanghai, Sydney, Seoul, Singapore and Taipei also fell, while Hong Kong, Wellington, Manila, Mumbai, Bangkok and Jakarta rose.London rose as data showed UK inflation eased last month, whille Paris and Frankfurt were also on the front foot.Also in focus this week is the release of Chinese 2024 growth data, with expectations that it could come in below the previous year and be among the slowest in more than three decades.Leaders have unveiled a string of measures to reignite the economy, with a particular emphasis on consumers and the troubled property sector, though there are fears the return of Trump could see another painful China-US trade war.The president-elect has already warned he will impose tariffs of as much as 60 percent on imports from the country, and observers say Beijing has likely kept its powder dry with regards stimulus as it prepares for the next four years.”China’s policy response will likely remain reactive but responsive in nature, to defend against any significant downside risks. The long-term economic transition to a more sustainable model of growth remains intact,” said Peiqian Liu, Asia economist at Fidelity International.”We expect more details on China’s strategic growth plans to be unveiled in its 15th Five Year Plan in 2025.”- Key figures around 0815 GMT -Tokyo – Nikkei 225: DOWN 0.1 percent at 38,444.58 (close)Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: UP 0.3 percent at 19,286.07 (close)Shanghai – Composite: DOWN 0.4 percent at 3,227.12 (close)London – FTSE 100: UP 0.5 percent at 8,242.82Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.0307 from $1.0310 on TuesdayPound/dollar: UP at $1.2233 from $1.2211Dollar/yen: DOWN at 156.89 yen from 157.98 yenEuro/pound: DOWN at 84.27 pence from 84.40 penceWest Texas Intermediate: UP 0.9 percent at $78.19 per barrelBrent North Sea Crude: UP 0.7 percent at $80.48 per barrelNew York – Dow: UP 0.5 percent at 42,518.28 (close)

One rocket, two missions: lunar landers built by US and Japanese companies launched their “rideshare” to the Moon on Wednesday, showcasing the private sector’s growing role in space exploration.On board the SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket that took off from the Kennedy Space Center in Florida were Firefly Aerospace’s Blue Ghost and ispace’s Resilience from Japan, which will also deploy a micro rover.Both uncrewed missions aim to build on the success of Texas-based Intuitive Machines, which last year became the first company to successfully touch down on Earth’s celestial neighbor.Until recently, soft landings on the Moon were achieved only by a handful of well-funded national space agencies, starting with the Soviet Union in 1966.Now, however, several emerging US companies are attempting to replicate this feat under NASA’s experimental Commercial Lunar Payload Services program, designed to cut costs and stimulate a lunar economy.The US plans to establish a sustained human presence on the Moon later this decade under the Artemis program, leveraging commercial partners to deliver critical hardware at a fraction of the cost of government-led missions.”Each milestone we complete will provide valuable data for future missions and ultimately keep the United States and our international partners at the forefront of space exploration,” Firefly Aerospace CEO Jason Kim said Tuesday.”Firefly is a go for launch. Let’s go ghost riders in the sky!”- Staying upright -On the Japanese side, Tokyo-based ispace’s first attempt to land on the Moon ended in an unsalvageable “hard landing” in April 2023.”It’s important to challenge ourselves again, after enduring failure and learning from it,” ispace founder and CEO Takeshi Hakamada said last week.”Today, we’re going back to the Moon,” a post on the ispace X account said Wednesday, adding in a promotional video: “Today, we prove our resilience”.Blue Ghost is stacked atop Resilience inside the Falcon 9, SpaceX executive Julianna Scheiman said, and will be deployed first, followed by Resilience nearly 30 minutes later.The two spacecraft have different timelines for reaching the Moon.Blue Ghost aims to complete its journey in 45 days, gradually lifting its orbit around Earth before entering lunar orbit and touching down near Mons Latreille, a volcanic feature in Mare Crisium on the Moon’s northeast near side.”With 10 NASA instruments on this flight, we’re conducting scientific investigations… from characterizing Earth’s magnetosphere to understanding lunar dust and the Moon’s interior structure and thermal properties,” NASA scientist Maria Banks said.Blue Ghost also carries technology demonstrations focused on navigation and computing in the Moon’s harsh radiation environment.- ‘Moonhouse’ art -Meanwhile, Resilience will take four to five months to reach its destination in Mare Frigoris, on the Moon’s far north.Its payloads include scientific instruments, but the centerpiece is Tenacious, a micro rover developed by ispace-Europe, a Luxembourg-based subsidiary. The four-wheeled robot features a high-definition camera and will attempt to scoop up regolith — the Moon’s loose surface material.It also carries on its front a small red “Moonhouse” created by Swedish artist Mikael Genberg.These ambitious goals hinge on achieving a successful soft landing — a task fraught with challenges.Spacecraft must navigate treacherous boulders and craters and, in the absence of an atmosphere to support parachutes, rely entirely on thrusters for a controlled descent.A final hurdle, as recent missions have shown, is remaining upright.When Intuitive Machines’ Odysseus landed in April 2024, it tipped over, limiting the investigations it could perform.Similarly, Japan’s SLIM lander, which touched down in March 2024, landed at a wonky angle, leaving its solar panels poorly positioned, similarly curtailing its operational lifespan.

Record numbers of tourists flocked to Japan last year, figures showed Wednesday, as the weak yen bolstered the appeal of the “bucket list” destination despite overcrowding complaints in hotspots like Kyoto.The country logged more than 36.8 million tourist arrivals in 2024, topping 2019’s record of nearly 32 million, according to estimates from the Japan National Tourism Organization.It marks a return to a boom that began over a decade ago before being interrupted by the Covid-19 pandemic, with numbers up more than four-fold from 2012.That is partly thanks to government policies to promote attractions from Mount Fuji’s majestic slopes to shrines and sushi bars in more far-flung parts of the archipelago.Another factor is the cheap yen, which has plunged against other currencies over the past three years, making everything from a bowl of ramen to a handmade Japanese kitchen knife more affordable.Japan has long been a “bucket list” destination for many people, said Naomi Mano, president of hospitality and events company Luxurique.But it’s “prime time because at the moment it’s like Japan is on a 30 percent off sale”, Mano told AFP.- Double trouble? -The government has set an ambitious target of almost doubling tourist numbers to 60 million annually by 2030.Authorities say they want to spread sightseers more evenly around the country, and to avoid a bottleneck of visitors eager to snap spring cherry blossoms or vivid autumn colours.But as in other global tourist magnets like Venice in Italy, there has been growing pushback from residents in destinations such as the ancient capital of Kyoto.The tradition-steeped city, just a couple of hours from Tokyo on the bullet train, is famed for its kimono-clad geisha performers and increasingly crowded Buddhist temples.Locals have complained of disrespectful tourists harassing the geisha in a frenzy for photos, as well as causing traffic congestion and littering.In a bid to improve the situation — and cash in — Kyoto on Tuesday announced plans to hike lodging taxes “to realise ‘sustainable tourism’ with a high level of satisfaction for citizens, tourists and businesses”.”If there’s a burden on the infrastructure, I do think taxing tourists is a good idea” but Kyoto must find the “right balance”, Australian tourist Larry Cooke, 21, told AFP.- Capsule executives -Exasperated officials have also taken steps elsewhere, including introducing an entry fee and a daily cap on the number of hikers climbing Mount Fuji.Last year a barrier was briefly erected outside a convenience store to stop people standing in the road to photograph a view of the snow-capped volcano that had gone viral.Some Japanese companies say they can no longer afford hotels in Tokyo and other major cities, as the high demand from tourists pushes up prices.Several managers told AFP they are seeking cheaper alternatives, from Airbnb lets to Japan’s famously claustrophobic capsule hotels.IT company chief Yoshiki Kojima told AFP that he had chosen one with slightly more comfortable bed-sized pods that his employees had liked.”It’s clean, convenient and has a traditional shared bath house. My employees say it’s fun,” Kojima said.- Economy -The economic benefits are clear, however, with experts noting that tourism is now second only to vehicle exports in terms of earnings.Japan, population 124 million, still receives far fewer tourists than top destination France, which has a population of 68 million and welcomed 100 million visitors in 2023.So its overtourism woes are mainly because the influx “is centred around specific cities”, Luxurique’s Mano said.For example, the number of foreign visitors to Tokyo has doubled since 2019, and was up 1.5 times in Osaka.But Mano thinks the government can take steps to change this by promoting other parts of Japan and “making it easier to access — having more information available, being able to book activities in other rural areas.”

Asian markets swung Wednesday, continuing their yo-yo start to the year as traders assess the economic outlook with Donald Trump back in the White House, with focus now on the release of key US inflation data.A below-forecast read on wholesale prices provided a little relief and helped the Dow and S&P 500 end in the green, though sentiment remains clouded by a resignation to the idea that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates as much as hoped this year.Blockbuster employment figures on Friday, which followed a better-than-expected read on job openings, reinforced the view that the world’s top economy and labour market were still in rude health.That came after the central bank in December indicated in its so-called “dot plot” that it would likely only cut rates twice in 2025, compared with four previously flagged — taking the wind out the sails of a market rally at the end of the year.Investors will be poring over the consumer price index later Wednesday, with analysts warning that a strong reading could even stoke talk of a possible rate hike as the Fed’s next move.SWBC’s Christopher Brigati wrote in a commentary: “Even prior to the release of the dot plot in December, we’ve been cautious about the increasing possibility that the Fed would have to dial back further rate cuts in 2025, calling for no cuts during the year.”It appears that there is growing sentiment that the Fed will be less accommodating going forward. Furthermore, it is appearing increasingly likely that the Fed’s rate-cutting efforts beginning in September may have been premature, given more recent economic data.”After Wall Street’s broadly positive lead, Asian markets fluctuated.Tokyo, Sydney, Seoul, Wellington and Manila rose, while Hong Kong, Shanghai and Taipei fell.Also in focus this week is the release of Chinese 2024 growth data, with expectations that it could come in below the previous year and be among the slowest in more than three decades.Leaders have unveiled a string of measures to reignite the economy, with a particular emphasis on consumers and the troubled property sector, though there are fears the return of Trump could see another painful China-US trade war.The president-elect has already warned he will impose tariffs of as much as 60 percent on imports from the country, and observers say Beijing has likely kept its powder dry with regards stimulus as it prepares for the next four years.”China’s policy response will likely remain reactive but responsive in nature, to defend against any significant downside risks. The long-term economic transition to a more sustainable model of growth remains intact,” said Peiqian Liu, Asia economist at Fidelity International.”We expect more details on China’s strategic growth plans to be unveiled in its 15th Five Year Plan in 2025.”- Key figures around 0230 GMT -Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 0.4 percent at 38,628.61 (break)Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: DOWN 0.2 percent at 19,178.20Shanghai – Composite: DOWN 0.2 percent at 3,234.90Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.0300 from $1.0310 on TuesdayPound/dollar: DOWN at $1.2197 from $1.2211Dollar/yen: DOWN at 157.90 yen from 157.98 yenEuro/pound: UP at 84.44 pence from 84.40 penceWest Texas Intermediate: UP 0.2 percent at $77.63 per barrelBrent North Sea Crude: UP 0.1 percent at $79.99 per barrelNew York – Dow: UP 0.5 percent at 42,518.28 (close)London – FTSE 100: DOWN 0.3 percent at 8,201.54 (close)

China might not be able to rely on trade to steer it out of trouble as blistering tariffs being considered by US President-elect Donald Trump threaten an already struggling economy.Exports have historically represented a key engine in the world’s number two economy, where authorities will release 2024 growth data on Friday that is expected to be among the lowest in decades.Worse still, Trump’s return to the White House three days later could mean that Beijing won’t be able to rely on trade to drive activity in 2025.Exports “are likely to stay resilient in the near-term”, wrote Zichun Huang of Capital Economics, noting that a recent surge was due in part to US importers stockpiling Chinese goods ahead of expected tariff hikes.”But outbound shipments will weaken later this year if Trump follows through on his threat to impose 60 percent tariffs on all Chinese goods,” she said.China’s economy likely grew 4.9 percent last year, according to an AFP survey of experts, fractionally short of the government’s five percent target and down from 5.2 percent in 2023.The increase — already the lowest in decades, apart from the Covid-19 pandemic — was helped by a record-setting year for Chinese exports.Overseas shipments reached a historic high of nearly $3.5 trillion in 2024, up 7.1 percent year-on-year, according to official statistics published on Monday.Adjusted for inflation, China’s trade surplus last year “outstripped any global surplus seen in the past century, overshadowing even the historical export powerhouses like Germany, Japan or the United States post-World War II”, wrote Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management in a note.The increase in China’s trade surplus has contributed five to six points to the growth of the country’s gross domestic product over the past three years, Francois Chimits of the Mercator Institute for China Studies told AFP.”The vitality of foreign trade has been one of the lifelines of the Chinese economy,” he said.- Policy support -That pillar of growth could come under attack in 2025, as the United States and European countries retaliate against what they call unfair competition resulting from China’s generous subsidies to its manufacturers.The European Union imposed additional customs duties in October on electric vehicles imported from China, citing distortionary trade practices by Beijing.And Trump promised during his recent US presidential campaign to slap even heftier tariffs on Chinese goods than those implemented in his first term.The specific trade imposts Trump intends to levy against China are not yet clear but the country’s export surge last year “will ignite further fury among US trade hawks”, Innes said.A potential 20 percent increase in US levies on Chinese goods would result in a 0.7-percentage-point hit to real GDP this year, according to a Goldman Sachs report.Beijing could allow the yuan to weaken in return, “pre-position” exports in third countries so that they can then be sent to the United States, or simply find new markets, Agatha Kratz of Rhodium Group told AFP.Some shifts are already palpable. China’s exports to Vietnam increased by nearly 18 percent last year, according to Chinese customs data, overtaking Japan to become its third-largest export destination.Domestically, Beijing is hoping to boost demand this year through a combination of fiscal and monetary policy easing and a scheme to spur consumption.The external pressure this year might necessitate even greater domestic policy support from Beijing, said Larry Hu, an economist at Macquarie Group.AFP’s survey of analysts warned that China’s growth rate could ease to just 4.4 percent this year and even drop below four percent in 2026.

China’s economic growth likely fell fractionally short of the government’s five percent target last year, according to an AFP survey, as leaders head into 2025 steeling for the second presidency of Donald Trump amid fears of another painful trade standoff.The reading would be the weakest the country has seen since 1990 — outside of the pandemic — as it struggles with weak domestic consumption and a protracted crisis in the once-booming property sector.The survey of economists by AFP estimated growth in the world’s number two economy hit 4.9 percent last year, down from the 5.2 percent recorded in 2023.They also warned it could ease to just 4.4 percent this year and even drop below four percent in 2026.The 2024 reading would be just shy of Beijing’s target of “around five percent” — reiterated by President Xi Jinping late last year — and likely “close enough for officials to claim success”, Harry Murphy Cruise from Moody’s Analytics told AFP.”But do not let that achievement fool you. Under the hood, the economy’s engine is struggling to get into gear,” he warned.However, Francois Chimits from the Mercator Institute for China Studies said the figure should be regarded with some scepticism as it is “often subject to strategic adjustments to reflect internal objectives”.China’s economy has so far failed to achieve a robust post-pandemic recovery as a prolonged real estate crisis spooks consumers and investors, while local governments grapple with soaring debt.Woes in the property sector are particularly concerning given the vital role it plays in fuelling growth, Chimits said.Friday’s report comes after data last week showed the country narrowly avoided slipping into deflation last month as consumers remain wary of pulling out their wallets.Beijing has recently unveiled some of the most aggressive measures in years aimed at boosting activity, including cuts to key interest rates, the easing of property purchase rules, hiking the debt ceiling for local governments and bolstering support for financial markets.- Trump 2.0 -Coupled with strong overseas demand for Chinese products — last year’s exports reached a historic high — the measures have contributed to a moderate rebound in the final quarter, experts told AFP.Without the measures, consumption would have been “much worse”, said Michelle Lam, an economist at Societe Generale.”Beijing has made some tweaks to support the buying of unsold properties by local governments,” Lam told AFP.”But the implementation has still been slow.”In one encouraging sign for the real estate sector, the total area of new residential property transactions in major cities increased 18 percent on-year in December, the finance ministry announced this month.Compounding the issues heading for Beijing is the return of Trump to the White House next week after he pledged during his campaign to impose tougher trade measures against China than those he unleashed during his first term.A hike in tariffs could batter Chinese exports — a key economic pillar made even more vital in the absence of vigorous domestic demand.A potential 20 percent increase in US levies on Chinese goods would result in a 0.7-percentage-point hit to real GDP this year, according to a Goldman Sachs report.In a move to shore up the economy in preparation for any possible headwinds, Beijing has announced a relaxation of fiscal policy in 2025 and a plan to boost consumption by subsidising the replacement of old household items.With exports facing greater uncertainty and the property sector stagnating, “officials need a new growth driver”, said Murphy Cruise.”Households could be that engine.”External pressure this year might necessitate even greater domestic policy support from Beijing, said Larry Hu, economist at Macquarie Group.That could represent a “paradigm shift, with domestic demand outpacing external demand” as it did in 2009-19, he wrote.Still, economists remain sceptical about the scale of upcoming stimulus measures, the details of which are unlikely to be revealed until China’s annual parliamentary session in March.”Officials will ramp up support, but it will not offset the pain of higher tariffs,” Murphy Cruise warned.