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IMF lifts 2025 global growth forecast, warns of ongoing trade ‘uncertainty’

The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday lifted its outlook for global growth this year, flagging a milder-than-expected economic hit from President Donald Trump’s tariff policies while warning of risks ahead. In its flagship World Economic Outlook (WEO) report — compiled before the most recent US-China tariff spat — the IMF hiked its 2025 global growth forecast to 3.2 percent, up from 3.0 in July, while leaving its prediction for 2026 unchanged at 3.1 percent. The global inflation rate is expected to remain elevated at 4.2 percent this year, and 3.7 percent in 2026, underpinned by elevated inflation in several countries including the United States. “The tariff shock itself is smaller than initially feared,” IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told reporters in Washington on Tuesday, adding that the private sector had also supported growth by responding to Trump’s tariffs in an agile way.Other factors, including the AI boom and fiscal policies in Europe and China had also helped to prop up the global economy, he said.But, he warned, “the tariff shock is here, and it is further dimming already weak growth prospects.”Since returning to office, Trump has imposed sweeping tariffs on top trading partners including China and the European Union in a bid to reshape US trading relationships and boost domestic manufacturing. Over the weekend, the US president threatened fresh tariffs of 100 percent on China, on top of current steep levies, criticizing Beijing’s recent decision to tighten export controls on the rare earth minerals crucial to the defense and high-tech sectors. “Everything is very fluid,” Gourinchas told AFP in an interview. “But I think it’s a very useful reminder that we live in a world in which this kind of increase in trade tensions, increase in policy uncertainty, can flare up at any time.”- US upgraded, China unchanged -The IMF raised its prospects for economic growth for the United States, the world’s largest economy, by 0.1 percent this year and next, to 2.0 percent in 2025, and to 2.1 percent in 2026. However, this still represents a marked slowdown from 2024, when US growth hit 2.8 percent.Despite the trade tensions between the world’s two biggest economies, the Fund still expects China’s economy to slow to 4.8 percent this year from 5.0 percent in 2024, before cooling sharply to just 4.2 percent in 2026, in line with previous estimates. China’s slowdown has been driven by a reduction in net exports, which have been at least partly offset by growing domestic demand fueled by policy stimulus, the Fund said. Elsewhere in Asia, the IMF raised India’s 2025 growth forecast to 6.6 percent from 6.4 percent in the last outlook update in July, and hiked its prediction for growth in Japan to 1.1 percent — up 0.4 percentage points.  – Europe’s growth troubles continue -The outlook for Europe has improved slightly from July, with the Eurozone now expected to grow by 1.2 percent this year and by 1.1 percent in 2026. But despite the upgrade, Europe’s growth trajectory still significantly lags the United States.Germany’s economy is expected to bounce back from recession to register growth of 0.2 percent this year, up 0.1 percentage point, before picking up to 0.9 percent next year. And France, which is in the midst of a prolonged political crisis, is expected to see growth cool to 0.7 percent this year, before rising slightly to 0.9 percent in 2026.The one market exception in the Eurozone is Spain, which saw an upgrade and is now expected to see growth remain resilient at 2.9 percent this year and 2.0 percent in 2026.Growth in the United Kingdom is now expected to hit 1.3 percent this year and next. As the war in Ukraine continues, the Russian economy is likely to see a marked slowdown in growth this year to just 0.6 percent this year from 4.3 percent in 2024, the IMF said, cutting its outlook by 0.4 percentage points.

IMF urges China ‘rebalance’ consumption, forecasts slowing growth

The IMF said Tuesday that a “rebalancing” of China’s economy through fiscal measures targeting social spending and property would help battle deflationary pressure, as growth in the country is forecast to slow.Beijing has in recent years been seeking to reverse a stubborn slump in household spending as a protracted debt crisis in the real estate market and overseas tumult in the trade sector spook consumers.The International Monetary Fund’s latest World Economic Outlook report noted “weakness in domestic demand” in the world’s second-largest economy — echoing a broader Asian outlook dimmed by Washington’s trade war.Consumer prices fell in August at their fastest rate in six months, according to official figures. Data expected Wednesday will show how they fared in September.Given those hurdles, the IMF said China’s “fiscal policy stance remains appropriately expansionary”. But it also warned current policies mark “a continued departure from the stance that is needed to avoid rising debt to GDP over the medium term”.”For China, rebalancing toward household consumption — including through fiscal measures with a greater focus on social spending and the property sector — and scaling back industrial policies would reduce external surpluses and alleviate domestic deflationary pressures,” the IMF said.The Fund forecast China’s annual growth to hit 4.8 percent year-on-year in 2025 before slowing to 4.2 percent next year.Both figures were unchanged from last update in July. In a sign of coming pressure, growth is expected to slow to 3.7 percent in the fourth quarter of this year, a slight downward revision.The IMF’s latest advice comes ahead of a key political gathering of China’s ruling Communist Party next week in Beijing, where leaders will chart the country’s economic direction for the next five years.The report was compiled before a bombshell announcement Friday by US President Donald Trump of 100 percent tariffs on Chinese goods from November 1 — retaliation for Beijing’s new sweeping export controls on rare earths. Trump’s announcement rattled markets and cast doubt on a potential meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea.Beijing’s commerce ministry vowed Tuesday to “fight to the end” in its trade war with Washington, if necessary.Globally, “trade policy uncertainty is assumed to remain elevated through 2025 and 2026”, the IMF said.- Tariffs bite -Growth in emerging and developing Asia is forecast to slow from 5.3 percent in 2024 to 5.2 percent in 2025, and further to 4.7 percent in 2026. The IMF said the trend “largely mimicked that of effective tariff rates”, with ASEAN countries among the most affected.Japan is expected to rebound from near-stagnation, with growth rising from 0.1 percent in 2024 to 1.1 percent in 2025, supported by stronger real wages and consumer spending. Growth is seen easing to 0.6 percent in 2026.India’s economy is projected to expand 6.6 percent in 2025, revised upward due to a strong first quarter, before slowing to 6.2 percent the following year.The China-US trade standoff was encouraging countries to relocate production out of China to Southeast Asia and India, and the IMF reported a shift in trade flows towards Asia in the automotive sector.The IMF however warned that trade diversion and rerouting — while offering short-term resilience — are costly and risk fragmenting global supply chains.Prolonged uncertainty over trade policy is, in the Fund’s view, likely to weigh on business investment decisions and cloud growth prospects, while fragmenting supply chains over the medium term.It also cautioned that ad hoc trade deals “would not meaningfully reduce trade policy uncertainty” and could trigger “tit-for-tat dynamics” if they discriminate against third countries.

China sanctions five US units of South Korean ship giant Hanwha

China imposed sanctions on five American subsidiaries of South Korean shipbuilder Hanwha Ocean on Tuesday, accusing them of supporting a US government investigation into the shipping industry, as tit-for-tat port fees took effect.The United States announced in April it would begin applying fees to all arriving Chinese-built and operated ships after a “Section 301” investigation found Beijing’s dominance in the industry was unreasonable.Beijing responded last week by announcing “special port fees” on US ships arriving at Chinese ports. Fees on both sides kicked in Tuesday.The sanctioned subsidiaries are Hanwha Shipping LLC, Hanwha Philly Shipyard Inc., Hanwha Ocean USA International LLC, Hanwha Shipping Holdings LLC and HS USA Holdings Corp.The United States’ investigation and subsequent measures “severely damage the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises”, Beijing’s commerce ministry said in a statement.The Hanwha subsidiaries “assisted and supported the relevant investigation activities of the US government, endangering China’s sovereignty, security and development interests”, it said. Organisations and individuals in China are now banned from cooperating with them.- ‘Unfair competition’ – Separately on Tuesday, China’s Ministry of Transport opened a probe into whether the US Section 301 investigation impacted the “security and development interests” of China’s shipbuilding industry and supply chain.The ministry said it would consider whether enterprises or individuals had supported the investigation, raising the prospect that more US-linked firms could face restrictions.Washington has said its port fees are to address Chinese dominance of the global shipping sector and provide an incentive for building more ships in the United States.The industry is now dominated by Asia, with China building nearly half of all ships launched, ahead of South Korea and Japan.Hanwha, one of South Korea’s largest shipbuilders, announced $5 billion investment in Philly Shipyard, in the US city of Philadelphia, in August.China’s commerce ministry called the US measures “typical unilateralist and protectionist actions” that constituted “unfair competition”, in another statement on Tuesday.”China urges the US to correct its wrongful practices, work together with China in the same direction and resolve issues of mutual concern through equal dialogue and consultation,” it said. 

Asian stocks pare tariff-led losses, Tokyo hit by political turmoil

Asian stocks sank Tuesday on fresh trade war worries after China imposed curbs on US units of a Korean shipbuilder, dealing a blow to hopes that a flare-up at the weekend had been settled.Losses were felt most in Tokyo, where Japanese political turmoil added to the mix, with questions being raised about the chances of Sanae Takaishi becoming the country’s first woman prime minister.Markets have been whipsawed in recent days after Donald Trump on Friday lashed out at Beijing over its curbs on rare earths, fanning fears he will reignite their trade war following a months-long truce.Traders breathed a sigh of relief Sunday, though, when he shifted his tone by insisting in a social media post that “it will all be fine”, and adding that he wanted to “help” China.That was enough for US dealers to return to the market at the start of this week, with all three main indexes on Wall Street rallying.Asia’s losses were limited Monday, but after a healthy start Tuesday markets sank again after China sanctioned five US subsidiaries of South Korea’s Hanwha Ocean, accusing them of supporting a Washington probe into the shipping industry.The United States earlier this year carried out a “Section 301” investigation that found Beijing’s dominance in the industry was unreasonable and imposed port fees, sparking tit-for-tat measures by China.The commerce ministry in Beijing said Tuesday in a statement: “The United States’ investigation and subsequent measures “severely damage the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises.”The subsidiaries “assisted and supported the relevant investigation activities of the US government, endangering China’s sovereignty, security and development interests”, it said. Markets across Asia tumbled, with Hong Kong off almost two percent, while Shanghai, Singapore, Seoul, Wellington, Taipei, Mumbai, Bangkok and Jakarta also retreated.Shares in Hanwha dropped more than five percent in Seoul.The selling also came amid growing concerns that the AI-fuelled rally in stocks this year — which has helped push several markets and companies to record highs — may have been overdone and a bubble is forming.”Given the recent rally, positioning was stretched (and) any bad news is a cue to sell risk…which indicates the market is looking for an excuse for a selloff,” said Neil Wilson of Saxo markets.”The extent of the selling could be the cue for the last bears to throw in the towel.”Tokyo dived three percent at one point as investors returned from a long weekend also focusing on political uncertainty in Japan, where the ruling coalition collapsed Friday as junior partner Komeito quit the alliance.The move imperilled Takaichi’s chances of becoming premier, having been elected the ruling party’s leader this month. Stocks had surged after her election on hopes she will unveil fresh stimulus measures and push for looser monetary policies.It was reported at the weekend that Komeito will seek to support a unified candidate with other groups in a bid to stop Takaichi — who needs approval from parliament — from becoming premier. In commodities trade, gold and silver sank soon after they both touched records.Silver had earlier in the day struck a peak of $52.90 as investors sought other safe havens as gold continued to hit new highs, at point reaching $4,179.70.Oil was also sharply lower on renewed worries about a revival of the China-US trade war.- Key figures at around 0715 GMT -Tokyo – Nikkei 225: DOWN 2.6 percent at 46,847.32 (close)Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: DOWN 1.8 percent at 25,429.61 Shanghai – Composite: DOWN 0.6 percent at 3,865.23 (close)London – FTSE 100: DOWN 0.4 percent at 9,403.54 Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.1567 from $1.1568 on MondayPound/dollar: DOWN at $1.3275 from $1.3332Dollar/yen: DOWN at 151.91 yen from 152.31 yenEuro/pound: UP at 87.15 pence from 86.77 penceWest Texas Intermediate: DOWN 1.0 percent at $58.89 per barrelBrent North Sea Crude: DOWN 1.0 percent at $62.69 per barrelNew York – Dow: UP 1.3 percent at 46,067.58 (close)

Google to invest $15 bn in India, build largest AI hub outside US

Google said Tuesday it will invest $15 billion in India over the next five years, as it announced a giant data centre and artificial intelligence base in the country.”It is the largest AI hub that we are investing in anywhere outside of the US,” Google Cloud CEO Thomas Kurian said at a ceremony in New Delhi.Demand for AI tools and solutions is surging among businesses and individuals in India, which is projected to have more than 900 million internet users by year’s end.Kurian announced “capital investment of $15 billion” over the five years and a “gigawatt-scale AI hub in Visakhapatnam”, a port city in the southeastern state of Andhra Pradesh.Google plans for the centre to scale to multiple gigawatts, he added, comparing the project to “a digital backbone connecting different parts of India together”.Globally, data centres are an area of phenomenal growth, fuelled by the need to store massive amounts of digital data, and to train and run energy-intensive AI tools.Google chief Sundar Pichai said on X that he had spoken to Prime Minister Narendra Modi about the “landmark development”.”This hub combines gigawatt-scale compute capacity, a new international subsea gateway, and large-scale energy infrastructure,” he wrote.”Through it we will bring our industry-leading technology to enterprises and users in India, accelerating AI innovation and driving growth across the country.”- ‘Data is the new oil’ -India’s Information Technology Minister, Ashwini Vaishnaw, thanked Google for the investment.”This digital infrastructure will go a long way in meeting the goals of our India AI vision,” he said.Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu called it a “very happy day”. The state’s Technology Minister Nara Lokesh said on X that the deal followed “a year of intense discussions and relentless effort”.Lokesh, speaking at the announcement, said that “data is the new oil and data centres are the new refineries”.”This is about India playing an important role on the global landscape,” he added.Recently top American AI firms looking to court users in the world’s fifth-largest economy have made a flurry of announcements about expanding into the country.This month US startup Anthropic said it plans to open an office in India next year, with its chief executive Dario Amodei meeting Prime Minister Modi.Modi, in a post on X, told Amodei that “India’s vibrant tech ecosystem and talented youth are driving AI innovation”, adding that he wanted to “harness AI for growth”.OpenAI has said it will open an India office later this year, with its chief Sam Altman noting that ChatGPT usage in the country had grown fourfold over the past year.AI firm Perplexity also announced a major partnership in July with Indian telecom giant Airtel, offering the company’s 360 million customers a free one-year Perplexity Pro subscription.

Myanmar scam cities booming despite crackdown — using Musk’s Starlink

They said they had smashed them. But fraud factories in Myanmar blamed for scamming Chinese and American victims out of billions of dollars are still in business and bigger than ever, an AFP investigation can reveal.Satellite images and AFP drone footage show frenetic building work in the heavily guarded compounds around Myawaddy on the Thailand-Myanmar border, which appear to be using Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite internet service on a huge scale.Experts say most of the centres, notorious for their romance scams and “pig butchering” investment cons, are run by Chinese-led crime syndicates working with Myanmar militias in the lawless badlands of the Golden Triangle.China, Thailand and Myanmar pressured the militias into vowing to “eradicate” the compounds in February, releasing around 7,000 people from a brutal call centre-like system that runs on greed, human trafficking and violence.Freed workers from Asia, Africa and elsewhere showed AFP journalists the scars and bruises of beatings they said were inflicted by their bosses.They said they had been forced to work around the clock, trawling for victims for a plethora of phone and internet scams.Sun, a Chinese national who was sold between several compounds, was able to give AFP a rare insider’s account after being freed with Beijing’s help.But a senior Thai police official said after the crackdown began that up to 100,000 people may still toil in the compounds — often mini cities surrounded by barbed wire fences and armed guards — that have sprung up on the border with Myanmar since the Covid pandemic.Satellite images show rapid construction work resuming at several compounds only weeks after the crackdown. Flocks of Starlink satellite dishes soon began to cover many scam centre roofs after Thailand cut their internet and power connections.Nearly 80 Starlink dishes are visible on one roof alone in AFP photographs of one of the biggest compounds, KK Park.Starlink — which is not licensed in Myanmar — did not have enough traffic to make it onto the list of the country’s internet providers before February.It is now consistently the biggest, topping the ranking every day from July 3 until October 1, according to data from the Asian regional internet registry, APNIC.It first appeared at number 56 in late April.California prosecutors officially warned Starlink in July 2024 that its satellite system was being used by the fraudsters, but received no response. Worried Thai and US politicians have also conveyed their alarm to Musk, with Senator Maggie Hassan calling on him to act.Now the powerful US Congress Joint Economic Committee, on which she is a leading member, has told AFP it has begun an investigation into Starlink’s involvement with the centres.SpaceX, which owns Starlink, did not reply to AFP requests for comment.Erin West, a longtime US cybercrime prosecutor who resigned last year to campaign full-time for action, said “it is abhorrent that an American company is enabling this to happen”.Americans are among the top targets of the Southeast Asian scam syndicates, the US Treasury Department said, losing an estimated $10 billion last year, up 66 percent in 12 months.- Buildings shooting up -The building boom since the crackdown is “breathtaking”, West said. Satellite images show what appear to be office and dormitory blocks shooting up in many of the estimated 27 scam centres in the Myawaddy cluster, strung out along a winding stretch of the Moei River, which forms the frontier with Thailand.A whole new section of KK Park has sprung up in seven months. The security checkpoint at its main entrance has also been hugely expanded, with a new access road and roundabout added.At least five new ferry crossings across the Moei have also appeared to supply the centres from the Thai side, satellite images show.They include one serving Shwe Kokko, which the US Treasury calls a “notorious hub for virtual currency investment scams” under the protection of the Karen National Army, a militia affiliated with Myanmar’s junta.Last month, the US sanctioned nine people and companies connected to Shwe Kokko and the Chinese criminal kingpin She Zhijiang, founder of the multistorey Yatai New City centre. Construction work in Shwe Kokko has also continued apace.The borderlands where Myanmar, Thailand, China and Laos meet — known as the Golden Triangle — has long been a hotbed of opium and amphetamine production, drug trafficking, smuggling, illegal gambling and money laundering.Corruption and the power vacuum created by civil war in Myanmar have allowed organised crime groups to dramatically expand their scam operations.Southeast Asian scam operations conned people in the wider region out of $37 billion in 2023, according to a report by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, which said the gangs ruled the centres with an iron fist.Many workers extracted from the compounds in February said they were trafficked through Thailand and beaten and tortured into working as scammers. Others said they were lured by false promises of well-paid jobs. However, experts and NGOs said some also go willingly.Beijing pushed authorities in Myanmar and Thailand to crack down in February after Chinese actor Wang Xing said he was lured to Thailand for a fake casting and trafficked into a scam centre in Myanmar.Last month, China sentenced to death 11 members of a scam syndicate that operated just over the border with Myanmar, with five more given suspended death penalties.AFP has been able to build up a picture of the murky world of the centres and the overlapping militias who guard them after months of investigation. It is a ruthless industry full of slippery characters willing to sell people into the compounds or broker their release — for the right price.- Inside the compounds: Sun’s story -Sun — a pseudonym AFP is using to protect his identity — is one of thousands of Chinese people swallowed up by the scam factories.The soft-spoken young villager from the mountains of southwestern Yunnan province told AFP how he and other workers were repeatedly beaten with electric rods and whips if they slacked or did not follow orders.”Almost everyone inside had been beaten at some point… either for refusing to work or trying to get out,” he said.But with high fences, watchtowers and armed guards, “there was no way to leave”, until he was released with 5,400 other Chinese nationals since the February crackdown.Sun’s testimony is a rare insight into the internal workings of the centres, as he was sold on between several when bosses realised that a slight physical disability limited his usefulness.AFP journalists managed to talk to him as he was being released and later on the phone, as well as back in his poor, isolated village.Sun said his trouble began in June 2024, when he left his home some 100 kilometres (60 miles) across the mountains from Myanmar.With one child already and another on the way, the 25-year-old wanted to provide for his family and had heard there was money to be made selling Chinese goods online through Thailand.”I heard it was very profitable,” he told AFP.The trip turned into a nightmare in the Thai border city of Mae Sot, where Sun said he was abducted and taken over the slow river that divides it from Myanmar’s Myawaddy and its infamous scam centres.He said he was “terrified. I kept begging them on my knees to let me go.”Once in Myawaddy, he said, his plight quickly worsened.Sun said he was brought to a militia camp where he was sold for 650,000 Thai baht ($20,000) to a scam centre — the first of several such transactions.There, he was ordered to do online exercises to speed up his typing. Sun, however, had a problem: a deformed finger that slowed him down and drew the ire of his overseers.The disability, verified by AFP, meant he was repeatedly sold on to other compounds and given menial tasks.But in the last facility — bristling with high fences and gun-toting guards — he got a taste of the real work, sending unsolicited messages to scam targets in the United States.Once the victims were on the hook, he said, he passed the target on to a more specialised scammer who would continue the conversation.Experts confirmed that many Chinese-run compounds split the workforce according to their scamming ability.The centres also provide workers with detailed scripts on how to bait their targets.One 25-page text seen by AFP suggested workers adopt the persona of “Abby”, a lovesick 35-year-old Japanese woman. It advised them to build a romantic rapport with the target.”I feel we are so destined,” the document suggests Abby could say.- Murky business -Much about the industry is opaque, mirroring China and Thailand’s complex relations with Myanmar’s military regime and various rebel and junta-allied groups, many of whom profit from the illegal mining, logging and drug manufacturing going on amid the war there.Scam centre staff run the “whole gamut”, from expendable grunts held in slave-like conditions to skilled programmers working for high salaries, said veteran Myanmar expert David Scott Mathieson, a former Human Rights Watch monitor.Chinese authorities are treating those like Sun who were brought out in February as “suspects” who may have ventured knowingly into war-torn Myanmar.AFP verified key pillars of his story, consulting several experts on the centres. But other portions were harder to confirm — with Thai authorities not providing information, and Chinese officials tailing our reporters and impeding efforts to talk further with him.AFP journalists were followed by multiple unmarked cars while travelling to see Sun in his mountain village, three hours from the nearest city, Lincang.Minutes after AFP met with him, a flurry of officials arrived to “check up” on his welfare. When Sun returned after half an hour, he declined to speak further.- The double sting -In the weeks before his extraction, Sun wondered if he would ever be able to escape the drudgery, threats and violence of the scam centres. “I thought about the possibility (of dying)… almost every day,” he told AFP.AFP obtained a copy of a “work contract” from one centre forbidding staff from chatting or leaving their posts, and giving managers the right to “educate” workers who violate the rules.China has warned its citizens for years about cyber fraud — from the scams themselves to jobs posted online that lure people into the compounds.But a steady stream of Chinese people still disappear into them, prompting desperate searches from loved ones — searches that expose them to another whole level of scams and fraudsters.Fang, a woman from northwestern China’s Gansu province, told AFP her 22-year-old brother, a school dropout, vanished in February in Yunnan, which borders Myanmar.He was likely under “financial pressure” and had travelled to Xishuangbanna, near the Golden Triangle border with Myanmar and Laos, for a job smuggling goods like watches and gold into China, Fang said.Fang said she is now convinced her brother was enticed there and trafficked into Myanmar, with phone records indicating his last known location in the Wa region, home to the country’s biggest and best-equipped ethnic armed group.Like other relatives, she said she felt anxious despite appealing to Chinese authorities for help.”He’s the youngest child in the family,” she said. “My grandmother, who is in the late stages of cancer… cries at home every day.”- ‘Snakeheads’ -Most Chinese scam workers cannot bank on Beijing’s efforts alone to get out.Instead, they may have to pay a ransom that can expose people to the same murky networks that supply the centres in the first place.Fang said she had joined several groups on the Chinese messaging app WeChat filled with dozens of people searching for relatives who disappeared near the Myanmar border.She said she had been approached on social media by self-styled private “rescuers” who claimed to be able to extract people trapped in the compounds.AFP contacted more than a dozen such rescuers advertising their services on Chinese social media platforms Xiaohongshu and Kuaishou.Many seemed to have worked in compounds themselves or touted links to smugglers.They said they could tap underground networks of compound staff, Chinese fugitives and “snakeheads” — smugglers with ties to multiple centres — to track the person and broker their release.Most quoted ransoms equivalent to tens of thousands of dollars, depending on which centre the worker was in and if they owed money to the scam syndicate.Some claimed to take no money for themselves. Others were open about their fees, saying a network of fixers would also get a cut.One self-styled fixer, Li Chao, said he earned thousands of yuan (hundreds of dollars) per month arranging rescues in Cambodia — another major fraud and money-laundering hub — scoping out compounds and whisking away escapees in rental cars.The job was lucrative, but “there are risks for me too”, he told AFP.- Rescuers ‘just another scam’ -Ling Li, a modern slavery researcher who operates an anti-trafficking NGO, said the shadowy private rescue sector made her work freeing workers more “complicated”.Her organisation helps families search for workers in Myanmar and Cambodia, contacting police and negotiating ransoms.She told AFP that many online “rescuers” were either scammers themselves or charged wild sums for extractions that often never materialised.Families “can easily be cheated by opportunists”, she said.Fang said some handed over thousands of yuan without success. The rescuers “claim to have connections… but in reality, it’s just (another) scam”, she said.Release came for Sun on February 12, after Thailand cut power to scam-ridden parts of Myanmar.That morning, as he was repairing phones, an armed group arrived, piled him and dozens of others into pickup trucks and drove them to a militia camp.Within hours, he was on a ferry back into Thailand. “I never imagined… that I would be rescued so suddenly,” he told AFP.Ten days later, he was put on a plane to the Chinese city of Nanjing — flanked by police officers.Sun was one of thousands rounded up in the joint operation between Beijing, Thailand and local Myanmar militias — the Border Guard Forces (BGF) and the Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA), former ethnic-Karen rebel groups now allied with the Burmese army.They are two of several, often overlapping, militias operating around Myawaddy.The scammers operate in a “highly permissive environment… with permission from junta-affiliated Burmese militia”, concluded a report last month by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute.The think tank, which is partly funded by Australia’s defence ministry, noted that while fighting between rival militia groups often rages near the centres, they are reportedly never hit, so as not to endanger the “pure profits available through the scamming industry”.AFP sought comment from the BGF, but they did not respond.The report’s author, Nathan Ruser, told AFP it was “shocking” that syndicates have been given “such a permanent, established infrastructure” for smuggling “construction materials, goods and the trafficking of people”.- ‘Like an enemy state’ -China has said its clampdowns show its “resolute” commitment to stamping out the scammers, but Ruser and other experts say they only temporarily disrupt the syndicates.”As long as the (military) junta (in Myanmar) enables and fuels this industry, I think it’s only ever going to be a game of cat and mouse,” Ruser said.New ones will simply “pop up elsewhere”, he added.Sun insisted he was forced into the compounds and never tricked anyone into handing over money.Traumatised, exhausted and still on bail, he said he found the “mental burden” of his ordeal hard to bear.Beijing has not said how it plans to deal with the freed workers. Experts said many of them try to play down their role to avoid punishment.But Chinese society has scant sympathy, regardless of whether they are brutalised victims of trafficking, said researcher Ling Li. “People will judge you for being greedy and stupid.”Governments, however, have been “insanely negligent” about the gravity of the problem, warned cybercrime expert Erin West.”A generation’s worth of wealth is being stolen from us,” she said.”I don’t know how we shut this down. It is way too big now, like an enemy state.”isk-mjw-sjc-nlc-fg/jhb

Trump tariffs on timber, furniture take effect

US President Donald Trump’s fresh tariffs on imported wood, furniture and kitchen cabinets took effect Tuesday, a development likely to fuel building costs and pile pressure on homebuyers in an already challenging market.The duties were imposed to boost US industries and protect national security, according to the White House, and they broaden a slate of sector-specific tariffs Trump has imposed since returning to the presidency.The latest salvo features a 10-percent tariff on imports of softwood lumber, while duties on certain upholstered furniture and kitchen cabinets start at 25 percent.Come January 1, the rate on imported upholstered furniture is set to rise to 30 percent, while those on kitchen cabinets and vanities will jump to 50 percent.But duties on wood products from Britain will not exceed 10 percent, and those from the European Union and Japan face a 15-percent ceiling. All three trading partners have reached deals with the Trump administration to avert harsher duties.But the new tariffs will “create additional headwinds for an already challenged housing market by further raising construction and renovation costs,” warned National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) chairman Buddy Hughes.US home sales have been gloomy in recent years with high mortgage rates and limited inventory pushing costs up for buyers.In imposing the latest duties, Trump said the Commerce Secretary found that “wood products are used in critical functions of the Department of War, including building infrastructure for operational testing.”Trump’s proclamation added that US wood production “remains underdeveloped,” leaving the country import-dependent.But NAHB’s Hughes said: “Imposing these tariffs under a ‘national security’ pretext ignores the importance housing plays to the physical and economic security of all Americans.”He urged for deals that instead “roll back tariffs on building materials.”- Canada, Vietnam hit? -Canada, the top supplier of lumber to the United States, is set to be impacted.The 10-percent lumber tariff stacks on anti-dumping and countervailing duties the country faces, and the United States recently more than doubled these to 35 percent.This means that Trump’s latest action brings duties on Canadian lumber to 45 percent.The BC Lumber Trade Council, which represents British Columbian lumber producers in Canada on trade matters, in September called the new tariffs “misguided and unnecessary.””This will impose needless strain on the North American market, threaten jobs on both sides of the border, and make it harder to address the housing supply crisis in the United States,” the council added.Stephen Brown of Capital Economics told AFP that with 30 percent of lumber sourced from abroad, a 10-percent tariff could raise the cost of building an average home by $2,200.Brown added that China, Vietnam and Mexico account for the bulk of US furniture imports.”The US gets 27 percent of its furniture imports from China and then almost 20 percent from both Vietnam and Mexico,” he told AFP.He expects Vietnam could face the biggest impact “as furniture makes up 10 percent of its exports to the US.”The corresponding figures are smaller at four percent for China and 2.5 percent for Mexico.The tariffs were imposed under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, the same authority Trump used to roll out steel, aluminum and auto duties this year.Products subject to sector-specific tariffs are not doubly hit by countrywide levels that Trump has separately imposed, which are in some cases higher.

Wall Street stocks bounce after Trump-fueled slide

Wall Street stocks rebounded Monday from steep pre-weekend falls as US President Donald Trump softened his posture on China following earlier threats of large tariffs.European stock markets made modest gains while Asia’s leading stock markets began the week in the red as they caught up with Wall Street’s sharp losses Friday. Gold reached a fresh record high thanks to its status as a safe haven investment.”Things have calmed down almost as dramatically as the flare up on Friday when Donald Trump threatened 100 percent tariffs on China,” said City Index and FOREX.com analyst Fawad Razaqzada.Trump, who on Friday announced “massive” tariffs due to Chinese curbs on rare earths exports, backed off that stance, saying in a Sunday social media post “it will all be fine,” and adding that the United States wants to “help” China.Major Wall Street indices that fell hard on Friday recovered a large chunk of their losses after Trump’s weekend pivot.”Trump came back and made it very clear that everything is going to be fine with China,” said Adam Sarhan of 50 Park Investments. “This looks like a relief rally.”The tech-rich Nasdaq led major US indices with a 2.2 percent gain, while the Dow piled on around 630 points to finish up 1.4 percent.”To be blunt, this is just such nonsense — the heaving to and fro on social media posts — but it is what it is, and the stock market seems to be fine playing the part of the puppet,” said Briefing.com analyst Patrick O’Hare.”Friday’s price action exposed how vulnerable market pricing is to developments that threaten the rose-colored outlook embedded in premium valuations,” he added.Chip giant Broadcom was a standout on Monday, soaring almost 10 percent after announcing a partnership with ChatGPT maker OpenAI that would provide 10 gigawatts in computing power, the firms said.In the past few weeks, under the leadership of CEO Sam Altman, OpenAI has signed deals involving huge investments in data centers and AI chips with US companies Nvidia, AMD, and Oracle, as well as with South Korea’s Samsung and SK Hynix.Earnings season gets underway in earnest this week, with reports from JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and other financial heavyweights on Tuesday.The IMF and World Bank’s semi-annual gathering of finance ministers and central bank governors also began in Washington on Monday.- Key figures at around 2010 GMT -New York – Dow: UP 1.3 percent at 46,067.58 (close)New York – S&P 500: UP 1.5 percent at 6,654.72 (close)New York – Nasdaq Composite: UP 2.0 percent at 22,694.61 (close)London – FTSE 100: UP 0.2 percent at 9,442.87 (close)Paris – CAC 40: UP 0.2 percent at 7,934.26 (close)Frankfurt – DAX: UP 0.6 percent at 24,387.93 (close)Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: DOWN 1.5 percent at 25,889.48 (close)Shanghai – Composite: DOWN 0.2 percent at 3,889.50 (close)Tokyo – Nikkei 225: Closed for a holidayEuro/dollar: DOWN at $1.1568 from $1.1619 on FridayPound/dollar: DOWN at $1.3332 from $1.3360Dollar/yen: UP at 152.31 yen from 151.59 yenEuro/pound: DOWN at 86.77 pence from 86.98 penceBrent North Sea Crude: UP 0.9 percent at $63.32 per barrelWest Texas Intermediate: UP 1.0 percent at $59.49 per barrelburs-jmb/ksb

Wall Street stocks bounce after Trump-fuelled slide

Wall Street stocks rebounded Monday after heavy pre-weekend falls as US President Donald Trump reignited his trade war with China. European stock markets made modest gains while Asia’s leading stock markets began the week in the red as they caught up with Wall Street’s sharp losses Friday. Gold reached a fresh record high thanks to its status as a safe haven investment.”Things have calmed down almost as dramatically as the flare up on Friday when Donald Trump threatened 100 percent tariffs on China,” said City Index and FOREX.com analyst Fawad Razaqzada.Trump wrote Friday on social media that he would impose an additional 100-percent tariff on China and threatened to cancel a meeting with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping.The US president had been to meet Xi at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit later this month, which was to be their first encounter since Trump returned to power in January.The US president cited Beijing’s export curbs on rare earth minerals used in a range of goods including smartphones, electric vehicles and military hardware.Wall Street’s Nasdaq index plunged 3.6 percent following Trump’s comments, with investors also on edge over worries about a tech stock bubble following a recent surge on massive AI investments.Beijing accused Washington of acting unfairly, and the Ministry of Commerce said Sunday: “Threatening high tariffs at every turn is not the right approach to engaging with China.”But Trump took a more conciliatory tone Sunday.”Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine!,” the US president said in a post on his Truth Social account. Trump’s comments helped shift sentiment, with the dollar perking up and US stocks futures rebounding.”To be blunt, this is just such nonsense — the heaving to and fro on social media posts — but it is what it is, and the stock market seems to be fine playing the part of the puppet,” said Briefing.com analyst Patrick O’Hare.”Friday’s price action exposed how vulnerable market pricing is to developments that threaten the rose-coloEurred outlook embedded in premium valuations,” he added.The latest spat follows months of fragile peace between the economic superpowers as they looked to reach a full trade deal after Trump’s tariff bombshell in April that saw both sides ramp up tit-for-tat levies to eye-watering levels.Meanwhile, shares in chip giant Broadcom jumped 10 percent after OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT, announced it is teaming up with the firm to design and build its own specialised computer processors for artificial intelligence.”Broadcom has been talked about as a worthy member of the club of tech mega caps, and today’s deal with OpenAI cements its position as one of the real movers in the sector,” said Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at trading platform IG.”The news comes at just the right time after the knock to sentiment on Friday, reminding investors that the race for computing power is still on, and if anything is intensifying,” he added.In the past few weeks, under the leadership of CEO Sam Altman, OpenAI has signed huge investments in data centres and AI chips with US companies Nvidia and AMD, as well as with South Korea’s Samsung and SK hynix.The deals have boosted the prices of tech stocks and help push the Nasdaq to record highs.- Key figures at around 1530 GMT -New York – Dow: UP 1.3 percent at 46,083.63 pointsNew York – S&P 500: UP 1.5 percent at 6,650.90New York – Nasdaq Composite: UP 2.0 percent at 22,640.68London – FTSE 100: UP 0.2 percent at 9,442.87 (close)Paris – CAC 40: UP 0.2 percent at 7,934.26 (close)Frankfurt – DAX: UP 0.6 percent at 24,387.93 (close)Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: DOWN 1.5 percent at 25,889.48 (close)Shanghai – Composite: DOWN 0.2 percent at 3,889.50 (close)Tokyo – Nikkei 225: Closed for a holidayEuro/dollar: DOWN at $1.1569 from $1.1615 on FridayPound/dollar: DOWN at $1.3328 from $1.3352Dollar/yen: UP at 152.32 yen from 151.57 yenEuro/pound: DOWN at 86.80 pence from 86.98 penceBrent North Sea Crude: UP 1.5 percent at $63.67 per barrelWest Texas Intermediate: UP 1.7 percent at $59.90 per barrelburs-rl/cw

European stocks rebound after Trump-fuelled slide

European stock markets rebounded slightly Monday after heavy pre-weekend falls as US President Donald Trump reignited his trade war with China. Asia’s leading stock markets, catching up with sharp losses Friday on Wall Street, began the week in the red, while gold reached a fresh record high thanks to its status as a safe haven investment.Trump wrote on social media that he would impose an additional 100-percent tariff on China and threatened to cancel a summit with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping.The US president cited Beijing’s export curbs on rare earth minerals used in a range of goods including smartphones, electric vehicles and military hardware.Trump presented a more conciliatory tone Sunday when he described Xi as “respected”, helping to lift the dollar.”European equities are trading higher… (in) a relief rally after the violent swings seen on Friday,” noted Joshua Mahony, chief market analyst at traders Scope Markets.”The breakdown in US-China relations simply adds to the ongoing narrative around US instability, with the government shutdown rolling on towards its third week,” he added.Wall Street’s Nasdaq index plunged 3.6 percent Friday, with investors on edge also over a recent tech-led surge that has stoked fears of a stock bubble.However, investors took a little heart from a post Sunday in which Trump said “The U.S.A. wants to help China, not hurt it!!!”, adding that “respected President Xi… doesn’t want Depression for his country”.Beijing accused Washington of acting unfairly, and the Ministry of Commerce said Sunday: “Threatening high tariffs at every turn is not the right approach to engaging with China.”It follows months of fragile peace between the economic superpowers as they looked to reach a full trade deal after Trump’s tariff bombshell in April that saw both sides ramp up tit-for-tat levies to eye-watering levels.One of the winners of this year’s Nobel economics prize, France’s Philippe Aghion, warned Europe that it must not let the United States and China dominate technological innovation.”I think European countries have to realise that we should no longer let the US and China become technological leaders and lose to them,” Aghion told reporters Monday.The prize was awarded also to American-Israeli Joel Mokyr and Canada’s Peter Howitt for work on technology’s impact on sustained economic growth.The week kicked off with price recoveries for bitcoin and oil.The cryptocurrency tumbled over the weekend following Trump’s tough talk on China, while crude futures reversed big losses caused by the Israel-Hamas peace deal.- Key figures at around 1045 GMT -London – FTSE 100: UP 0.1 percent at 9,431.77 pointsParis – CAC 40: UP 0.4 percent at 7,948.52Frankfurt – DAX: UP 0.4 percent at 24,342.12Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: DOWN 1.5 percent at 25,889.48 (close)Shanghai – Composite: DOWN 0.2 percent at 3,889.50 (close)Tokyo – Nikkei 225: Closed for a holidayNew York – Dow: DOWN 1.9 percent at 45,479.60 (close)Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.1587 from $1.1615 on FridayPound/dollar: DOWN at $1.3337 from $1.3352Dollar/yen: UP at 152.13 yen from 151.57 yenEuro/pound: DOWN at 86.88 pence from 86.98 penceBrent North Sea Crude: UP 1.6 percent at $63.71 per barrelWest Texas Intermediate: UP 1.8 percent at $59.93 per barrel