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Global commodity prices should fall to a five-year low next year thanks to a huge oil glut, the World Bank said Tuesday, pointing to oversupply and to flat demand from China.”Next year, the global oil supply is expected to exceed demand by an average of 1.2 million barrels per day,” the Bank announced in its latest report on global commodity markets, adding that this scale of oversupply has been exceeded only twice before, in 1998 and 2020. The expected oil glut “is so large that it is likely to limit the price effects even of a wider conflict in the Middle East,” the Bank said. It blamed the expected oversupply partly on a “major shift” underway in China, where demand for oil has flatlined on the back of rising electric vehicle sales, demand for trucks running on liquified natural gas (LNG), and a slowdown in industrial production. The Bank said it also expects several countries not in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries or its allies (OPEC+) “to ramp up oil production,” fueling the oversupply and helping to push down global commodity prices by almost 10 percent by the end of 2026.But despite the sharp decline, overall commodity prices will likely remain around 30 percent above their level in the five years before the Covid-19 pandemic. “Falling commodity prices and better supply conditions can provide a buffer against geopolitical shocks,” World Bank chief economist Indermit Gill said in a statement. “But they will do little to alleviate the pain of high food prices in developing countries, where food-price inflation is double the norm in advanced economies,” he added.The World Bank expects food prices to fall by nine percent this year, and by an additional four percent in 2025, leaving them stuck around 25 percent above the level they were at between 2015 and 2019. Meanwhile, energy prices are predicted to drop by six percent next year, and by a further two percent in 2026.

Most major global stock markets rose on Tuesday with investors looking ahead to the release of US economic data and the earnings reports of tech titans this week.Oil prices rebounded after a sharp fall the previous day on relief that Israel’s strikes on Iran spared the country’s energy infrastructure.Concerns in the oil market have now shifted back to focus on potential oversupply in 2025 and a slowdown in demand from China, the world’s largest oil importer, according to analysts.US stocks closed higher Monday, boosted by the cheaper oil, and as investors look ahead to a busy week of economic indicators with the market already hovering near record highs.The US government will release its third quarter GDP growth estimate this week, as well as its closely watched monthly labour market report, which will indicate the health of the world’s largest economy.Investors are also eyeing the earnings reports of five of the “Magnificent Seven” US tech giants due this week, including Google-parent Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook-parent Meta, and Microsoft.”Although any market focus on earnings will rapidly be diverted to next week’s presidential election and Federal Reserve meeting,” said Danni Hewson, head of financial analysis at AJ Bell.Major European stock markets were in the green in late morning trading while Asian markets ended mixed. London edged up around 0.1 percent as investors awaited the first budget of Britain’s new Labour government on Wednesday, expected to include tax rises on businesses.Shares in banking giant HSBC rose around four percent, leading gains on London’s FTSE 100, after it reported a strong set of earnings that beat profit expectations. Meanwhile, shares in British oil and gas giant BP dropped one percent after the company reported a slump in profits on weak oil trading and refining margins, despite beating analyst expectations.In Asia, Tokyo and Hong Kong stocks climbed but Shanghai and Singapore retreated.Japanese shares built on the previous day’s gains as cheaper oil and the weaker yen outweighed uncertainty after Japan’s ruling coalition fell short of a majority in Sunday’s general election.Investors are awaiting the Bank of Japan’s rate decision later this week, with the central bank expected to stand pat following two hikes earlier this year.Focus is also on a key political meeting in Beijing next week, with investors hoping for details of an expected major stimulus plan to support China’s struggling economy.The People’s Bank of China on Monday rolled out a new lending tool to inject liquidity into the market.”Beijing hopes this tool will prop up market sentiment,” said Stephen Innes, analyst at SPI Asset Management.”China’s economic engine has been sputtering with soft demand and lacklustre growth data, and with the potential shake-up of the US election looming enormous, stability in the financial markets is critical for Beijing,” he added.- Key figures around 1050 GMT -London – FTSE 100: UP 0.1 percent at 8,296.06 pointsParis – CAC 40: UP 0.5 percent at 7,593.27Frankfurt – DAX: UP 0.4 at 19,599.06Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 0.8 percent at 38,903.68 (close)Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: UP 0.5 percent at 20,701.14 (close)Shanghai – Composite: DOWN 1.1 percent at 3,286.41 (close)New York – Dow: UP 0.7 percent at 42,387.57 (close)Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.0808 from $1.0815 on MondayPound/dollar: UP at $1.2983 from $1.2972Dollar/yen: UP at 153.37 yen from 153.24 yenEuro/pound: DOWN at 83.27 pence from 83.37 penceBrent North Sea Crude: UP 1.0 percent at $71.70 per barrelWest Texas Intermediate: UP 1.1 percent at $68.06 per barrel

Asian markets fluctuated in volatile trade Tuesday with investors looking ahead to the release of US economic data and the earnings reports of tech titans this week.Oil prices steadied following sharp falls Monday on relief that Israel’s strikes on Iran spared the country’s energy infrastructure and that the risk of escalation in the Middle East had eased.Concerns in the oil market have now shifted back to focus on potential oversupply in 2025 and a slowdown in demand from China, the world’s largest oil importer, according to analysts.US stocks closed higher Monday, boosted by the cheaper oil, and as investors look ahead to a busy week of economic indicators with the market already hovering near record highs.The US government will release its third quarter GDP growth estimate this week, as well as its closely watched monthly labour market report, ahead of the Federal Reserve’s next rate decision just after the US presidential election.Futures traders currently overwhelmingly expect a 25 basis points cut, according to CME FedWatch.Investors are also eyeing the earnings reports of five of the “Magificent Seven” tech giants due this week, including Google parent Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook-parent Meta, and Microsoft.Asian markets fluctuated with Tokyo, Hong Kong, Sydney, Seoul and Kuala Lumpur in the green, while Shanghai, Singapore, Taipei, Bangkok and Manila retreated.London, Frankfurt and Paris all rose in early European trade.Japanese shares built on the previous day’s strong gains as cheaper oil and the weaker yen boosted the market despite the political uncertainty following Sunday’s general election which left the ruling coalition short of a majority.Investors are also awaiting the Bank of Japan’s rate decision later this week, with the central bank expected to stand pat following two hikes earlier this year.”Although BoJ monetary policy will not be directly affected by the political machinations underway to find a governing coalition in Tokyo, it is likely that the next government will need to scale up fiscal spending,” said Alvin Tan of RBC Capital Markets.”In this vein, there could be increased pressure on the BoJ to go slow on policy tightening.”Focus is also on a key political meeting in Beijing next week, with investors hoping for details of an expected major stimulus plan to support the Chinese economy, which has struggled to recover from the pandemic with growth dragged down a debt crisis in the property sector.The People’s Bank of China on Monday rolled out a new lending tool to inject liquidity into the market, with about 2.9 trillion yuan ($407 billion) in loans set to expire in November-December.”With the clock ticking, Beijing hopes this tool will prop up market sentiment and counter any looming liquidity crunch,” said Stephen Innes, analyst at SPI Asset Management.”The timing here isn’t just tactical; it’s essential. China’s economic engine has been sputtering with soft demand and lacklustre growth data, and with the potential shake-up of the US election looming enormous, stability in the financial markets is critical for Beijing,” Innes said.Key figures around 0815 GMT -Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 0.8 percent at 38,903.68 (close)Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: UP 0.5 percent at 20,701.14 (close)Shanghai – Composite: DOWN 1.1 percent at 3,286.41 (close)London – FTSE 100: UP 0.2 percent at 8,305.83Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.0812 from $1.0815 at 2040 GMT MondayPound/dollar: UP at $1.2973 from $1.2972Dollar/yen: UP at 153.25 yen from 153.24 yenEuro/pound: DOWN at 83.34 pence from 83.37 penceBrent North Sea Crude: UP 0.3 percent at $71.63 per barrelWest Texas Intermediate: UP 0.2 percent at $67.57 per barrelNew York – Dow: UP 0.7 percent at 42,387.57 (close)

Banking giant HSBC said Tuesday that pre-tax profit in the third quarter rose 10 percent year-on-year, citing revenue growth in two of its divisions, days after the lender announced an organisational overhaul.The rise in pre-tax profit to $8.5 billion reflected a strong performance in its wealth management division as well as higher revenues in global banking and markets, HSBC said in an earnings release.The London-headquartered bank last week announced a major shakeup under new chief executive Georges Elhedery, who assumed his role in September.”We delivered another good quarter, which shows that our strategy is working,” Elhedery said in a statement Tuesday. HSBC on Tuesday also upped total distribution this year to $18.4 billion, and announced a fresh round of share buybacks of “up to $3 billion” — the latest in a series of moves to distribute capital to its investors.Third-quarter revenue increased by five percent on-year to $17 billion, while operating expenses during the same period rose two percent on-year to $8.1 billion.The sale of HSBC’s Argentina business, first revealed in April, is expected to be completed in the fourth quarter of this year, the bank added.- Structural overhaul -Last week, HSBC said it would simplify its structure and split into four distinct parts starting next year: Hong Kong, UK, “corporate and institutional banking” plus “international wealth and premier banking”.The bank will also streamline its geographical set-up by bringing together its Asia-Pacific and Middle East regions, while uniting the European and US operations under one roof.Chief risk officer Pam Kaur will take over as chief financial officer from January 1 — the first woman in the role in the bank’s 160-year history.The changes are “aimed at increasing focus on leadership and market share in the areas where we have clear competitive advantages, creating a simpler organisation with clarity of accountability and faster decision-making, and reducing the duplication of processes”, HSBC said on Tuesday.Elhedery said in an internal memo that “there will inevitably be a reduction in duplicated roles, particularly at senior levels” due to the restructuring, according to Bloomberg News. More details about the reorganisation will be announced in February along with its full-year results, HSBC said.HSBC generates most of its revenue in Asia and has spent several years pivoting to the region, vowing to develop its wealth business and target fast-growing markets.The bank said it will continue to monitor the impact of China’s package of stimulus measures announced last month.”These measures resulted in elevated volatility at the end of (the third quarter), which resulted in an increase in client activity, notably in Wealth, Equities, and Global Foreign Exchange in Hong Kong,” it said.The lender this month became a direct participant in China’s cross-border interbank payment system, or CIPS.HSBC shares in Hong Kong have risen by around 11 percent since the start of the year.The bank, which straddles East and West as Europe’s biggest lender, has come under pressure as US-China tensions rachet up.Major shareholder Ping An last year called on HSBC to spin off its Asia assets but the proposal was voted down.

Asian markets mostly rose Tuesday with investors looking ahead to the release of US economic data and the earnings reports of tech titans this week.Oil prices steadied following sharp falls Monday on relief that Israel’s strikes on Iran spared the country’s energy infrastructure and that the risk of escalation in the Middle East had eased.Concerns in the oil market have now shifted back to focus on potential oversupply in 2025 and a slowdown in demand from China, the world’s largest oil importer, according to analysts.US stocks closed higher Monday, boosted by the cheaper oil, and as investors look ahead to a busy week of economic indicators with the market already hovering near record highs.  The US government will release its third quarter GDP growth estimate this week, as well as its closely watched monthly labour market report, ahead of the Federal Reserve’s next rate decision just after the US presidential election.Investors are also eyeing the earnings reports of major tech companies this week including Google parent Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook-parent Meta, and Microsoft. Asia largely took its lead from Wall Street with Tokyo, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Sydney, Kuala Lumpur and Jakarta all higher, while Seoul, Singapore and Taipei retreated.Tokyo added to the previous day’s strong gains as the weaker yen boosted shares despite the political uncertainty following Sunday’s general election which left the ruling coalition short of a majority.Investors are also awaiting the Bank of Japan’s rate decision later this week.”Although BoJ monetary policy will not be directly affected by the political machinations underway to find a governing coalition in Tokyo, it is likely that the next government will need to scale up fiscal spending,” said Alvin Tan of RBC Capital Markets.”In this vein, there could be increased pressure on the BoJ to go slow on policy tightening.”Investors are also awaiting a key political meeting in Beijing next week for details of an expected major stimulus plan to support the Chinese economy, which has struggled to recover from the pandemic with growth dragged down a debt crisis in the property sector.The People’s Bank of China on Monday rolled out a new lending tool to inject liquidity into the market, with about 2.9 trillion yuan (US$407 billion) in loans set to expire in November-December.”With the clock ticking, Beijing hopes this tool will prop up market sentiment and counter any looming liquidity crunch,” said Stephen Innes, analyst at SPI Asset Management.”The timing here isn’t just tactical; it’s essential. China’s economic engine has been sputtering with soft demand and lacklustre growth data, and with the potential shake-up of the US election looming enormous, stability in the financial markets is critical for Beijing,” Innes said.Key figures around 0345 GMT -Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 0.6 percent at 38,819.51 (break)Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: UP 1.1 percent at 20,834.55Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.1 percent at 3,325.88Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.0813 from $1.0815 at 2040 GMT MondayPound/dollar: DOWN at $1.2970 from $1.2972Dollar/yen: DOWNat 152.95 yen from 153.24 yenEuro/pound: UP at 83.38 pence from 83.37 penceBrent North Sea Crude: UP 0.4 percent at $71.71 per barrelWest Texas Intermediate: UP 0.5 percent at $67.70 per barrelNew York – Dow: UP 0.7 percent at 42,387.57 (close)London – FTSE 100: UP 0.5 percent at 8,285.62 (close)

The administration of President Joe Biden has finalized curbs on US investments in sensitive technologies like semiconductors in China that pose a threat to national security, the Treasury Department said Monday. The new rules, which take effect on January 2 next year, will prohibit US-headquartered firms, citizens, and permanent residents from engaging in transactions involving cutting-edge technology like semiconductors, artificial intelligence (AI), and quantum computing, the Treasury announced in a statement.Investors will also be required to inform the Treasury about investments in some less advanced technologies “that may contribute to the threat to the national security of the United States,” the statement added.This will include investment in legacy semiconductors, a senior administration official told reporters on Monday. “Artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and quantum technologies are fundamental to the development of the next generation of military, surveillance, intelligence and certain cybersecurity applications,” Treasury assistant secretary for investment security Paul Rosen said in a statement. “This final rule takes targeted and concrete measures to ensure that US investment is not exploited to advance the development of key technologies by those who may use them to threaten our national security,” he added.The rules are the result of an executive order signed by Biden last August aimed at restricting certain US investments in sensitive high-tech areas in China, including in Hong Kong and Macau.In response, China’s foreign ministry called the executive order an attempt to “engage in anti-globalization and de-sinicization,” adding that Beijing was “strongly dissatisfied” and reserved the right to safeguard its interests. 

Oil prices fell and global stocks rose Monday on relief that Israel’s strikes on Iran avoided the country’s energy infrastructure.Israel spared oil and nuclear facilities in its air strikes on Iranian military targets Saturday, easing investor concerns about the extent of Israel’s retaliation to Tehran’s October 1 missile barrage.”Investors breathed a sigh of relief as the attack was more restrained than expected,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank.Oil prices have swung wildly in recent weeks, with investors concerned that an attack on Iran’s oil facilities would not only take Iranian crude off the market but spur a wider conflict involving other regional oil producers. Brent North Sea crude, the international benchmark oil contract, fell more than six percent on Monday with prices hovering above $71 per barrel. “Israel’s strike, carefully avoiding energy sites, has softened fears of a full-scale conflict with Iran,” said Stephen Innes, analyst at SPI Asset Management.”Even more telling is Iran’s response, downplaying the attack’s impact and signaling that its warnings may have deterred any more aggressive action from Israel,” he added.Concerns in the oil market have now shifted back to focus on potential oversupply in 2025 and a slowdown in demand from China, the world’s largest oil importer, according to analysts.US stocks pushed higher, boosted by the cheaper oil, and as investors look ahead to a busy week of economic indicators that could set the direction for a market that is already hovering near record highs.  On Wednesday comes the first estimate of third-quarter US GDP, and on Thursday the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge will be reported. Finally, Friday sees the release of key US monthly jobs figures. Together, the reports should provide clues on the Fed’s interest rate policy for the rest of the year.It’s also a big week for US company earnings as five of the “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks will report third-quarter results, including Alphabet (Google), Amazon, Apple, Meta (Facebook) and Microsoft.London, Paris, and Frankfurt all closed higher. London was hit at both ends by the falling crude prices. Oil and gas giants BP and Shell were among the biggest drops.But airlines easyJet and British Airways-owner IAG led gains on the prospect of lower fuel prices. Dutch medical device maker Philips lowered its full year sales target Monday, blaming a deterioration in demand from China, with its share price dropping almost 17 percent in Amsterdam, making the stock exchange’s AEX index one of the few to fall Monday.On currency markets the yen hit a three-month low, sliding more than one percent against the dollar as Sunday’s general election resulted in a hung parliament.But that helped the Tokyo stock market close up 1.8 percent as the yen’s weakness boosted shares of exporters. – Key figures around 2040 GMT -Brent North Sea Crude: DOWN 6.1 percent at $71.42 per barrelWest Texas Intermediate: DOWN 6.1 percent at $67.38 per barrelNew York – Dow: UP 0.7 percent at 42,387.57 (close)New York – S&P 500: UP 0.3 percent at 5,823.52(close)New York – Nasdaq Composite: UP 0.3 percent at 18,567.19 (close)London – FTSE 100: UP 0.5 percent at 8,285.62 (close)Paris – CAC 40: UP 0.8 percent at 7,556.94 (close)Frankfurt – DAX: UP 0.4 at 19,531.62 (close)Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 1.8 percent at 38,605.53 (close)Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: UP less than 0.1 percent at 20,599.36 (close)Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.7 percent at 3,322.20 (close)Euro/dollar: UP at $1.0815 from $1.0796 on FridayPound/dollar: UP at $1.2972 from $1.2962Dollar/yen: UP at 153.24 yen from 152.31 yenEuro/pound: UP at 83.37 pence from 83.28 pence

Boeing announced a stock offering on Monday expected to raise up to $19 billion, saying proceeds will go towards repaying debt and investing in its subsidiaries.The aviation giant’s move comes after it reported a whopping $6.2 billion quarterly loss last week in the wake of a paralyzing labor strike.The securities are expected to help the embattled company navigate a precarious financial situation without imminent threat of a credit rating downgrade.Boeing did not specify the timing of the offering, but said it will sell 90 million shares of common stock — valued at around $13.9 billion at current market prices — in addition to $5 billion in depositary shares.”Boeing intends to use the net proceeds from the offerings for general corporate purposes,” the company said in a statement.These include, “repayment of debt, additions to working capital, capital expenditures, and funding and investments in the company’s subsidiaries,” it added.  If oversubscribed, Boeing could potentially sell additional securities worth as much as $3 billion more for a total of $22 billion.The offering comes as Boeing faces myriad problems following safety lapses on commercial planes, problem-filled space projects and cost-overruns on defense contracts. The company is on track for its sixth straight annual loss.During an October 23 earnings conference call, Chief Executive Kelly Ortberg, who joined Boeing only in August, outlined steps to improve the company culture and streamline its mission, telling analysts Boeing should be “doing less and doing it better than doing more and not doing it well.” But Ortberg’s plans hit another stumbling point later that night when a machinist union voted down Boeing’s latest contract offer, extending a walkout of some 33,000 US workers that has shuttered major assembly plants in the Seattle region since mid-September.Boeing faces a continued cash crunch until the strike is resolved and it manages to ramp production back up. Even before the strike, Boeing had been forced to limit output of the 737 MAX under a federal order after an incident in January in which an Alaska Airlines jet made an emergency landing after suffering the blowout of a fuselage panel.”The approximate $19 billion in cash to be raised likely keeps them investment grade through the end of 2025 based on what we know today,” Third Bridge analyst Peter McNally said Monday.McNally pointed to comments from Boeing last week that were more optimistic about cash flow in the second half of 2025. But since that time, the machinist union voted to extend the strike.”The situation remains dynamic,” McNally said.- Bruising strike -Since Ortberg’s arrival, the company has announced measures to strengthen its cash position including a 10 percent reduction in its global workforce, amounting to around 17,000 positions cut.It is also considering the possibility of selling its space business, which includes its problem-plagued Starliner vehicle, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal on Friday.Meanwhile, the strike by Boeing workers has continued after union members rejected a new contract offer on Wednesday.Almost two-thirds (64 percent) of the members of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers District 751 rejected the preliminary agreement, prolonging the walkout of thousands of Seattle-region employees.The latest Boeing contract offer included a 35 percent pay rise over four years and a one-time signing bonus of $7,000. However, the deal did not restore a company pension axed a decade ago, a major sticking point for older workers.The strike has halted activity at two factories that assemble the 737 MAX and 777, costing an estimated $7.6 billion in direct losses — including at least $4.35 billion for Boeing and almost $2 billion for its suppliers, according to the Anderson Economic Group consultancy.The offering announced Monday addresses “a timing issue” in terms of cash that has been exacerbated by the latest union vote, said Cai Von Rumohr, an analyst at TD Cowen.Shares of Boeing fell one percent in afternoon trading.

Global stocks diverged and oil prices tumbled on Monday as markets were relieved that Israel’s strikes on Iran had avoided the country’s energy infrastructure.Israel avoided Iran’s oil and nuclear facilities in its air strikes on the country on Saturday, easing investor fears about the extent of Israel’s retaliation to Tehran’s October 1 missile barrage.Iran has downplayed the attack, saying it caused “limited damage” to a few radar systems on military sites.”Investors breathed a sigh of relief as the attack was more restrained than expected,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank.Brent North Sea crude, the international benchmark oil contract, fell around six percent on Monday morning with prices hovering around $71 per barrel. “Israel’s strike, carefully avoiding energy sites, has softened fears of a full-scale conflict with Iran,” said Stephen Innes, analyst at SPI Asset Management.”Even more telling is Iran’s response, downplaying the attack’s impact and signaling that its warnings may have deterred any more aggressive action from Israel,” he added.Concerns have shifted back to focus on oversupply in 2025 and a slowdown in demand from China, the world’s largest oil importer, according to analysts.London’s FTSE 100 retreated as crude prices affected both ends of the top-tier index.Oil and gas giants BP and Shell were both hit by the lower crude prices, making them the biggest fallers.Meanwhile airlines easyJet and British Airways-owner IAG led gains on the prospect of lower fuel prices. In the eurozone, Paris advanced and Frankfurt retreated. Dutch medical device maker Philips lowered its full year sales target Monday blaming a deterioration in demand from China, with its share price dropping more than 11 percent on the Amsterdam stock exchange’s blue-chip AEX index.Investors are preparing for a busy week ahead, including the release of key US monthly jobs figures on Friday which could provide more clues about future Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. It’s also a big week for US company earnings as five of the “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks will report third-quarter results, including Alphabet (Google), Amazon, Apple, Meta (Facebook) and Microsoft.”The market expects the US tech giants to continue to report double digit earnings growth for the next five quarters, so there are some big expectations for these companies,” said Kathleen Brooks, research director at trading group XTB.On currency markets the yen hit a three-month low, sliding more than one percent against the dollar as Japan’s ruling coalition looked set to lose its majority after Sunday’s general election.Tokyo led gains on Asian markets, closing up 1.8 percent as the yen’s weakness boosted Japanese shares, with exporters benefiting from a cheaper currency.Shanghai also rose while Hong Kong was flat. In India, Mumbai stocks were up 1.1 percent, with shares in solar panel maker Waaree Energies soaring 75 percent on their market debut. – Key figures around 1100 GMT -Brent North Sea Crude: DOWN 5.7 percent at $71.29 per barrelWest Texas Intermediate: DOWN 6.1 percent at $67.43 per barrelLondon – FTSE 100: DOWN 0.2 percent at 8,231.38Paris – CAC 40: UP 0.2 percent at 7,509.94Frankfurt – DAX: DOWN 0.2 at 19,425.18Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 1.8 percent at 38,605.53 (close)Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: FLAT at 20,599.36 (close)Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.7 percent at 3,322.20 (close)New York – Dow: DOWN 0.6 percent at 42,114.40 (close)Euro/dollar: UP at $1.0819 from $1.0799 on FridayPound/dollar: UP at $1.2984 from $1.2958Dollar/yen: UP at 152.53 yen from 152.27 yenEuro/pound: UP at 83.35 pence from 83.30 pence

Oil prices tumbled Monday with markets relieved that Israel’s strikes on Iran had avoided the country’s energy infrastructure while the yen fell to a three-month low after Japan’s ruling party suffered an election drubbing.Israel carried out air strikes on military sites in Iran on Saturday in response to Tehran’s October 1 missile barrage, itself retaliation for the killing of Iran-backed militant leaders and a Revolutionary Guards commander.Iran has downplayed the attack, saying it caused “limited damage” to a few radar systems, signalling what analysts say is the Islamic republic’s reluctance to escalate further.Oil prices fell as much as five percent in early trade before paring some of their losses.”Israel’s strike, carefully avoiding energy sites, has softened fears of a full-scale conflict with Iran,” said Stephen Innes, analyst at SPI Asset Management.”Even more telling is Iran’s response, downplaying the attack’s impact and signaling that its warnings may have deterred any more aggressive action from Israel,” he said.”If tensions cool further or peace talks unexpectedly gain traction, we could see oil slide down to $60 per barrel as traders shift focus back to the looming 2025 supply glut — especially if China’s economic stimulus underwhelms,” Innes added.Concerns about the outlook for the world’s largest oil importer have added to the downward pressure on crude prices, with observers waiting for headline figures on Beijing’s stimulus plan to support the wavering Chinese economy.Investors are looking for details of any major stimulus package to be unveiled after the conclusion of a key political meeting in Beijing next week, which coincides with the US presidential election.On currency markets the yen hit a three-month low, sliding more than one percent against the dollar as Japan’s ruling coalition looked set to lose its majority after Sunday’s general election.In morning trade, one dollar bought 153.88 yen, the Japanese currency’s lowest value since late July.New Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s gamble calling snap elections appeared to have backfired badly, with his Liberal Democratic Party projected to have fallen short of an absolute majority on its own for the first time since 2009.Investors are betting the political uncertainty makes it less likely the LDP will be able to follow through on tax hikes that Ishiba had hinted at and could slow the pace of further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan.”The general sense is that there’s a risk here that the government will have to concede in terms of its fiscal discipline agenda, so in order to get more people to join the coalition, they will have to become a little more fiscally loose,” Rodrigo Catril at National Australia Bank said on the Morning Call podcast.”At the same time there’s a risk there that support for policy normalisation for the government, in terms of the Bank of Japan policy normalisation, it may be that the LDP may not be able to be as supportive of the Bank of Japan’s process. So that’s the major concern particularly from the central bank perspective.”Tokyo led gains on Asian markets, closing up 1.8 percent as the yen’s weakness boosted Japanese shares, with exporters benefiting from a cheaper currency.Shanghai, Sydney, Seoul and Manila all advanced. Mumbai was up 1.1 percent, with shares in solar panel maker Waaree Energies soaring 75 percent on their market debut.Hong Kong and Singapore were flat while Taipei, Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur and Jakarta retreated.In Europe, London was lower while Paris and Frankfurt rose in early trade.- Key figures around 0815 GMT -Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 1.8 percent at 38,605.53 (close)Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: FLAT at 20,599.36 (close)Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.7 percent at 3,322.20 (close)London – FTSE 100: DOWN 0.2 percent at 8,234.82Euro/dollar: UP at $1.0801 from $1.0799 on FridayPound/dollar: UP at $1.2968 from $1.2958Dollar/yen: UP at 153.33 yen from 152.27 yenEuro/pound: UP at 83.35 pence from 83.30 penceBrent North Sea Crude: DOWN 4.4 percent at $72.71 per barrelWest Texas Intermediate: DOWN 4.7 percent at $68.43 per barrelNew York – Dow: DOWN 0.6 percent at 42,114.40 (close)