Afp Business Asia

Boeing workers in the Seattle region decisively rejected the company’s latest contract offer on Wednesday, extending the nearly six-week strike.Almost two-thirds (64 percent) of the members of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers District 751 rejected the contract, the union said on X. The latest Boeing offer had included a 35 percent wage hike, but did not reinstate a pension plan sought by many employees.Some 33,000 hourly workers with the IAM have been on the picket lines since September 13, when workers overwhelmingly rejected a Boeing proposal for a new four-year contract to replace the expiring pact.Workers had sought a 40 percent wage increase to make up for years of tepid salary growth that have not kept pace with inflation and that employees complain leave them unable to afford living in one of the most costly regions of the United States.”After 10 years of sacrifices, we still have ground to make up, and we’re hopeful to do so by resuming negotiations promptly,” said Jon Holden, president of the Seattle union in a statement. “This is workplace democracy –- and also clear evidence that there are consequences when a company mistreats its workers year after year,” Holden said. “Ten years of holding workers back unfortunately cannot be undone quickly or easily, but we will continue to negotiate in good faith until we have made gains that workers feel adequately make up for what the company took from them in the past,” he added.The extension of the strike adds to the troubles facing Boeing and its new CEO Kelly Ortberg, who earlier Wednesday expressed measured optimism the latest contract would be ratified.”We have been feverishly working to find a solution that works for the company and meets our employees’ needs,” said Ortberg in a message to employees accompanying third-quarter results.Boeing reported a whopping $6.2 billion loss due in part to added costs connected to the strike and to problems with its troubled defense and space business.The embattled aviation giant has also been under regulatory scrutiny following safety problems.

Pakistan is hoping to finalize both the delayed privatization of its flag carrier and the outsourcing of Islamabad’s international airport in November, the country’s finance minister said Wednesday.Muhammad Aurangzeb, who took office earlier this year, spoke to AFP at the World Bank’s headquarters in Washington, where he is attending the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. During a previous interview with AFP in April, Aurangzeb had said he hoped the privatization of the government-owned Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) could be completed by June 2024. Speaking Wednesday, the finance minister said the five-month delay was down to two factors: ensuring macroeconomic stability, and doing the proper due diligence of the interested parties. “The reality is, when any foreign investor comes in, or even the local investor, who are going to put in a substantial amount of money, they want to ensure that the foundation is there,” he said, referring to macroeconomic factors. Aurangzeb noted that potential bidders for both PIA and Islamabad airport also required scrutiny, another factor in the delay. “Therefore it’s ultimately the cabinet which approved the extension in the timelines so people can do their due diligence before they make these submissions,” he said. – Brink of default -Aurangzeb said Pakistan had been behind on existing profit and dividend repayments when the current government took office, and had taken steps to remedy that after making progress on macroeconomic stability.The country came to the brink of default last year as the economy shriveled amid political chaos following catastrophic 2022 monsoon floods and decades of mismanagement, as well as a global economic downturn.Inflation peaked at 38 percent, but has since dropped to less than seven percent, after the central bank maintained sky-high interest rates, amid other government tightening measures, including import bans to preserve foreign exchange.Last month, the IMF approved a $7 billion loan, Pakistan’s 24th such payout from the multilateral lender since 1958.Aurangzeb touted progress on the country’s current account deficit and the stabilization of the Pakistani rupee, which has depreciated against the US dollar by about 65 percent since 2020.”In May and June on the back of this macroeconomic stability and building up on our reserves, we paid more than $2 billion to our existing international investors,” he said. Pakistan’s gross public debt currently stands at 69 percent of GDP, according to the IMF, or roughly $258 billion.- ‘Saturation point’ – Alongside privatizing state-owned enterprises (SOEs), Pakistan’s IMF deal also rests on increasing its tax base, and reforming of the country’s power sector. Aurangzeb told AFP there was a common theme between all three major issues. “Tax, power, SOE: There’s leakage, there’s theft, there’s corruption, right?” he said. “And we have to deal with all of that.”But he dismissed media reports that the government was not serious about broadening its tax base, saying that the tax take had risen by 29 percent in the last fiscal year, which overlapped with a prior caretaker government, and was targeted to rise by a further 40 percent in the current fiscal year.In a nation of more than 240 million people where most jobs are in the informal sector, only 5.2 million filed income tax returns in 2022.”People who are not paying up, they need to start paying for the simple reason that we have reached a saturation point of the people who are paying,” he said. “The salaried class, the manufacturing industry, reached a saturation point. And this cannot go forward,” he added. The government was also committed to doing a better job of taxing certain sectors of the economy, he said, naming real estate, retail, retail distributors, and agriculture.

European and US stock markets moved lower Wednesday as investors focused on company earnings, bond yields and the outlook for the US and Chinese economies.The dollar rose against major rival currencies while oil prices retreated.”Rising Treasury yields continue to be a major topic of conversation mainly because the market isn’t entirely clear about why they are going up like they are,” said market analyst Patrick O’Hare at Briefing.com.The yield on 10-year US government bonds has risen to 4.24 percent from 3.73 percent one month ago.”A more market-friendly explanation suggests they are a byproduct of an improved growth outlook that bodes well for earnings,” said O’Hare.”A less market-friendly explanation is that rising Treasury yields reflect burgeoning concerns about the budget deficit and inflation heating up again,” he added.”The economic reports are such that people are losing faith in the idea that we’re going to get aggressive rate cuts,” said Steve Sosnick of Interactive Brokers.With the US economy in rude health, bets on another bumper cut to interest rates at the Federal Reserve’s next meeting have dwindled, supporting the dollar.”Another key factor has been the Trump Trade,” said Daniela Sabin Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com.- Trump Trade -The Trump Trade describes investors acting in expectation of the economic and political policies of a potential second Donald Trump administration in the United States.”Betting odds now show a 60-38 advantage for Donald Trump and markets are clearly agreeing with this with yields and the dollar pushing higher as traders expect a rise in public spending and inflation if he is elected,” said Sabin Hathorn.Analysts argue that a Trump win could see a renewed rise in inflation as the former president favors tax cuts.Investors were also keeping tabs on corporate earnings reports.Shares in Boeing dropped 1.8 percent after the aerospace giant reported a major $6.2 billion quarterly loss.A six-week labor strike has weighed on its commercial plane division, while costly problems bogged down its defense and space business.About 33,000 IAM workers in the US Pacific Northwest walked off the job on September 13. The union is slated to vote on a new contract that could end the stoppage later Wednesday.Electric vehicle company Tesla reported higher profits after the closing bell, sending its shares 8.1 percent up in after-hours trading.Away from company results, shares in Tokyo Metro rocketed 45 percent in Japan’s biggest initial public offering for six years.Shares in McDonald’s, meanwhile, sank more than five percent as investors reacted to news that one person died and dozens became sick following a severe E. coli outbreak linked to its Quarter Pounder hamburgers. Gold struck yet another record high with the precious metal profiting from its haven status as markets struggle to nail down a winner in the upcoming US presidential election and fears of an escalating crisis in the Middle East. Crude futures slid more than one percent having shot higher Tuesday on an indicator pointing to increased demand in China, which is taking measures to stimulate its flagging economy.- Key figures around 2030 GMT -New York – Dow: DOWN 1.0 percent at 42,514.95 points (close)New York – S&P 500: DOWN 0.9 percent at 5,797.42 (close)New York – Nasdaq Composite: DOWN 1.6 percent at 18,276.65 (close)London – FTSE 100: DOWN 0.6 percent at 8,258.64 (close) Paris – CAC 40: DOWN 0.5 percent at 7,497.48 (close)Frankfurt – DAX: DOWN 0.2 percent at 19,377.62 (close)Tokyo – Nikkei 225: DOWN 0.8 percent at 38,104.86 (close)Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: UP 1.3 percent at 20,760.15 (close)Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.5 percent at 3,302.80 (close)Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.0787 from $1.0800 on TuesdayPound/dollar: DOWN at $1.2929 from $1.2977Dollar/yen: UP at 152.65 yen from 151.02 yenEuro/pound: UP at 83.41 pence from 83.14 pence West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 1.9 percent at $70.78 per barrelBrent North Sea Crude: DOWN 1.4 percent at $74.99 per barrelburs-rl/bys/bjt

The Chinese government should use its tax-and-spend policies to help boost flagging economic growth, a senior IMF official told AFP ahead of key meetings this week in Washington.  The IMF has raised concern about the levels of global public debt, which it estimates will reach a record $100 trillion this year, with debt expected to rise in both the United States and China, the world’s two largest economies. “China is in the process of a major transition,” Vitor Gaspar, head of the IMF’s department that advises governments on fiscal affairs, said in an interview from his IMF headquarters office close to the White House.”Fiscal capacity can help China reach a different plateau in terms of its economic ambition, in terms of its economic prosperity,” he said ahead of the Monday opening of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank annual meetings.Gaspar noted China’s “very strong fiscal capacity to act.”The IMF estimates that China’s economic growth will ease over the coming years, slowing from 5.2 percent in 2023 to 4.8 percent this year, and 4.5 percent in 2025. Countries like China and the United States, which have rising levels of public debt while also being “safely away from debt distress,” should move gradually but decisively to adjust fiscal policy to bring down their debt-to-GDP ratios, Gaspar said. At the same time, China should also be looking to implement fiscal policies to help drive growth and reverse its expected economic slowdown.”For a continental economy like China, the main driver of growth and development has to be domestic,” he said, noting that if this issue was tackled it could help to rebalance the Chinese economy. China should also be looking to tackle “financial misallocations” stemming primarily from the country’s struggling real estate sector, and also to tackle some of the “vulnerabilities and financial weaknesses” at the sub-national level, he said. – ‘Ample room’ – Alongside China, the IMF sees the United States as a key driver of global public debt, and expects its gross general government debt-to-GDP ratio to hit 121 percent this year, and to approach 132 percent by the end of the decade, Gaspar said. This figure does not include the trillion-dollar spending commitments made by both Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump on the campaign trail ahead of the US presidential elections on November 5, Gaspar said.Like China, “the US benefits from ample room to adjust fiscal policy instruments to bring US debt under control,” he said, adding that the tax and spending choices would ultimately have to be made by politicians.  “It’s very important to have public support — political support — for fiscal adjustment, and that calls for a judicious mix of people- and growth-focused measures,” he said, noting that this should include taxation that is seen to be “fair”. – Agreeing with Draghi -Gaspar said the IMF agrees with the findings of a report published last month on the European Union’s lack of competitiveness conducted by the former Italian premier Mario Draghi, which called for “massive” but targeted investment to fund the 27-member trading bloc’s priorities. “An emphasis on growth and competitiveness in Europe is just (and) appropriate,” he said, despite the cost of these measures. Gaspar also noted the Draghi report’s calls to deepen the EU’s single market — something the IMF has long supported.”The single market is one of the central cornerstones of European integration, one of the most important collective assets of Europe, and should be used to the fullest extent,” he said.Asked during a press conference in Washington on Wednesday about the French government’s recent proposals to bring its budget deficit under three percent of GDP by 2029, Gaspar said the plans showed the new government was moving in the right direction. “But we are waiting for more clarity coming from actual enacted measures in France,” he added.  

European and Asian stock markets traded mixed Wednesday and oil prices retreated as investors focused on company earnings and the outlook for the US and Chinese economies.Wall Street steadied Tuesday following its recent record-breaking run higher.”There are some big US earnings releases later today, including Boeing and Tesla, who will report earnings once the US market closes,” noted Kathleen Brooks, research director at trading group XTB.”These will be watched closely to see if any positive earnings surprises can boost the US blue chip stock market back to its winning ways.”Away from company results, shares in Tokyo Metro rocketed 45 percent in Japan’s biggest initial public offering for six years.Gold struck yet another record high with the precious metal profiting from its haven status as markets struggle to nail down a winner in the upcoming US presidential election and owing to fears of an escalating crisis in the Middle East. Crude futures slid more than one percent having shot higher Tuesday on an indicator pointing to increased demand in China which is taking measures to stimulate its flagging economy, the world’s second biggest after the United States.With the US economy in rude health, bets on another bumper cut to interest rates at the Federal Reserve’s next meeting have dwindled, supporting the dollar and especially against the yen on Wednesday.It comes as markets eye a possible Donald Trump victory in next month’s presidential polls.”Investors are navigating a tangled web of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, a Federal Reserve turning out less dovish than expected, and the sudden reawakening of the ‘Trump Trade’,” said independent analyst Stephen Innes.The Trump Trade describes investors acting in expectation of the economic and political policies of a potential second Trump administration. “The latter has shaken the bond market, forcing some bond traders to pull their heads out of the sand as real jitters emerge about the fiscal landscape post-election.”US bond yields are at their highest since July, with analysts arguing that a Trump win could see a renewed rise to inflation as the former president favours tax cuts.- Key figures around 1015 GMT -London – FTSE 100: DOWN 0.3 percent at 8,286.08 pointsParis – CAC 40: DOWN 0.5 percent at 7,499.73Frankfurt – DAX: FLAT at 19,419.64Tokyo – Nikkei 225: DOWN 0.8 percent at 38,104.86 (close)Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: UP 1.3 percent at 20,760.15 (close)Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.5 percent at 3,302.80 (close)New York – Dow: FLAT at 42,924.89 (close)Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.0785 from $1.0800 on TuesdayPound/dollar: UP at $1.2978 from $1.2977Dollar/yen: UP at 152.67 yen from 151.02 yenEuro/pound: DOWN at 83.07 pence from 83.14 pence West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 1.2 percent at $70.85 per barrelBrent North Sea Crude: DOWN 1.2 percent at $75.13 per barrel

Equities diverged Wednesday after another unremarkable day on Wall Street, where rising bond yields and comments from Federal Reserve officials dampened expectations for US interest rate cuts.A global rally that has seen several markets hit multiple records — particularly in New York — appears to have run out of gas as traders assess the US central bank’s plans in the wake of forecast-topping economic data and ahead of a tight presidential election.They are also keeping tabs on Beijing, hoping for more measures to reignite growth after a slew of stimulus over the past month, while geopolitical tensions helped push safe-haven gold to another peak.Bets on another bumper 50-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s next meeting have dwindled following a recent spate of data showing the world’s top economy in rude health and the labour markets resilient.A number of key members of the bank’s policy board have said that while they are in favour of further reductions, they did not want to go too quickly.That comes as markets eye a possible Donald Trump victory in next month’s presidential polls, which observers warn could see him implement tax cuts and impose tariffs that could restoke inflation.Treasury yields are at their highest since July.”Investors are navigating a tangled web of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, a Federal Reserve turning out less dovish than expected, and the sudden reawakening of the ‘Trump Trade’,” said Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management. “The latter has shaken the bond market, forcing some bond traders to pull their heads out of the sand as real jitters emerge about the fiscal landscape post-election.”The Dow and S&P 500 both fell for a second straight day on Wall Street, having ended at fresh peaks Friday, though the Nasdaq ticked higher.Asian markets fluctuated.Tokyo ended down despite a weaker yen caused by a softening of expectations on US rate cuts. The Japanese unit is sitting at more than 152 per dollar, levels not seen since July.However, shares in Tokyo Metro rocketed 45 percent on their debut after its government owners raised $2.3 billion in Japan’s biggest initial public offering for six years.Wellington, Manila, Jakarta and Taipei also fell.Hong Kong climbed more than one percent, building on the healthy run-up enjoyed in the wake of China’s raft of economic support measures.Shanghai also advanced, along with Sydney, Seoul, Singapore and Mumbai.London edged up but Paris and Frankfurt dipped.Gold touched a new record of $2,755.47 on the uncertainty over the US vote as well as fears about the Middle East crisis as Israel plots its retaliation against Iran after this month’s missile barrage by Tehran.The geopolitical concerns offset the rowing back of US rate-cut bets that had helped propel bullion higher in recent months.Oil ticked down after surging more than two percent Tuesday in reaction to Chinese authorities lifting import quotas on independent oil refineries from next year in a sign growth may be recovering.- Key figures around 0810 GMT -Tokyo – Nikkei 225: DOWN 0.8 percent at 38,104.86 (close)Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: UP 1.3 percent at 20,760.15 (close)Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.5 percent at 3,302.80 (close)London – FTSE 100: UP 0.2 percent at 8,322.37Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.0786 from $1.0800 on TuesdayPound/dollar: DOWN at $1.2971 from $1.2977Dollar/yen: UP at 152.36 yen from 151.02 yenEuro/pound: UP at 83.16 pence from 83.14 pence West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 0.7 percent at $71.27 per barrelBrent North Sea Crude: DOWN 0.6 percent at $75.58 per barrelNew York – Dow: FLAT at 42,924.89 (close)

Shares in Tokyo Metro, one of the world’s busiest subways, soared almost 50 percent on its debut Wednesday after its government owners raised $2.3 billion in Japan’s biggest initial public offering in six years.Each day around 6.5 million people — more than the London Underground — ride Tokyo Metro’s nine lines, part of a vast transport network serving the capital and its sprawling suburbs.The company’s shares closed at 1,739 yen, 45 percent up from their issue price of 1,200 yen. Earlier they were up 47 percent.The 348.6 billion yen proceeds will redeem reconstruction bonds issued after the 2011 earthquake, tsunami and nuclear disaster in northeast Japan that killed 18,000 people.The listing reduces government ownership, split between the nation and Tokyo city, to around 50 percent. Many Japanese rail operators are already privatised.To attract investors, perks for buying more than 200 shares included tickets to the Tokyo Metro museum and golf range, as well as free tempura toppings at its noodle stands.Reports said the issue was 15 times oversubscribed among investors.The IPO is Japan’s largest since tycoon Masayoshi Son’s tech and telecoms conglomerate SoftBank Group raised a national record of $23.5 billion by listing its mobile unit in 2018.London built the first public underground railway, but in 1927 Tokyo became the first Asian city with a subway.These days, four other subway lines are run separately by the Tokyo government, alongside East Japan Railway’s overground routes such as the circular Yamanote Line, and other private services.- ‘Low volatility’ -Analysts said the firm’s strong profits and stable business — with Tokyo less affected by Japan’s demographic crisis — and high dividend yield attracted investors. In the year to March 2025, it expects to pay 40 yen per share.Tokyo Metro posted a net profit of 46 billion yen for the fiscal year that ended in March 2024, up 67 percent from a year earlier. This year it is aiming to increase this to 52 billion yen.The firm’s spectacular debut raised questions about why the government did not try and secure a higher price at the IPO.But Shiki Sato, strategist of Tokyo Securities, told AFP it is “quite common that the first price goes higher than the initial public offering price, especially in Japan, as the offering price is based on earnings but that does not include investors’ expectations”.The share price of Japanese companies that have gone public this year has risen 34 percent on average, Bloomberg News reported, citing Ichiyoshi Securities.The “low volatility” of Tokyo Metro makes its shares a safe prospect for ordinary Japanese investor households, Hideaki Miyajima, a professor in commerce at Waseda University, said before the IPO.”And for institutional investors, the Japanese market is very favourable given the very low exchange rate” of the yen and recent corporate governance reforms, he added.Tokyo Metro president Akiyoshi Yamamura said: “I believe (the share price rise) is the result of many people thinking highly of us. I would like to express my gratitude. We will continue to try to live up to the expectations of our shareholders.”The listing comes ahead of elections in Japan on Sunday with polls suggesting Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party might fall short of a majority for the first time since 2009.The world’s fourth-largest economy has been struggling to gain traction while a falling population means firms in many sectors are having trouble filling vacancies.The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday slashed its 2024 growth forecast for Japan to 0.3 percent but projected it would expand 1.1 percent next year.

The former chief executive of the Abercrombie and Fitch clothing empire has been arrested and charged with the trafficking of male models for sex parties around the world, US prosecutors said Tuesday.Ex-CEO Mike Jeffries, his partner Matthew Smith and the pair’s fixer James Jacobson allegedly used a “casting couch” ploy to groom aspiring male models to attend sex parties at which victims were plied with alcohol and drugs.They were taken to Jeffries’s and Smith’s US homes, as well as venues as far afield as Britain, France, Italy and Morocco for the events, at which some of the men were given Viagra and muscle relaxants, prosecutors said.”The indictment alleges on more than one occasion when men did not or could not consent, Jeffries and Smith violated the bodily integrity of these men by subjecting them or continuing to subject them to invasive sexual and violent contact,” US Attorney Breon Peace told a media briefing.”They spent millions of dollars on a massive infrastructure to support this operation, and to maintain its secrecy,” he added.The trio, who are also charged with interstate prostitution, used “force, fraud and coercion to traffic those men for their own sexual gratification,” Peace said. “The defendants employed a referral system in an interview process that did not inform the men of the details of the sex events before they attended, including the full extent and nature of the sexual activity that would be required of the men at these events,” the attorney said. “They caused the men to believe that attending these sex events could yield modeling opportunities with Abercrombie.”Jeffries was bailed on a $10 million bond, Jacobson on a $500,000 bond, while Smith was denied bail after prosecutors argued that as a British passport holder he was a flight risk.”We will respond in detail to the allegations after the indictment is unsealed, and when appropriate,” Jeffries’s and Smith’s lawyers said in a statement to US media.Jeffries smiled as he left a Florida courthouse with his lawyer before getting into a black BMW.- ‘Appalled and disgusted’ -Fifteen anonymous victims were cited in the charging documents, but prosecutors suggested that the scale of the alleged offending was likely far larger and called on witnesses or victims to come forward.”Today’s arrests are monumental for the aspiring male models who were victimized by these individuals,” said Brittany Henderson, a lawyer representing victims of the alleged crimes.”Their fight for justice does not end here. We look forward to holding Abercrombie and Fitch liable for facilitating this terrible conduct and ensuring that this cannot happen again,” she added in a statement to AFP.The case stems from a 2023 BBC investigation, “The Abercrombie Guys: The Dark Side of Cool,” in which several men spoke out about signing non-disclosure agreements for sex events allegedly run by Jeffries.Abercrombie and Fitch has previously said it was “appalled and disgusted” by the allegations about Jeffries’s behavior and has “zero tolerance for abuse, harassment or discrimination of any kind.”Jeffries left Abercrombie in 2014 with a golden parachute worth $25 million, according to corporate filings.Peace said he did not have evidence that the offending took place on company grounds.Jeffries and Smith will appear at a federal court in West Palm Beach, Florida, while Jacobson was arrested in Wisconsin and will make his initial appearance in federal court in Saint Paul, Minnesota. 

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen appeared to take aim at former president Donald Trump’s economic approach Tuesday, saying the current US administration has “rejected isolationism that made America and the world worse off.”Her opening remarks at a news conference two weeks before the US presidential election come as the International Monetary Fund also issued a warning on a global rise in tariffs.World financial leaders are gathered in Washington this week for a series of meetings hosted by the IMF and World Bank.The fund cautioned in its latest World Economic Outlook report that tariffs “affecting a sizable swath of global trade” could dent world growth.Trump has called for a 10 percent to 20 percent tariff on all US imports, and a higher rate of 60 percent or more on those from China.But sweeping tariffs among major trading blocs, alongside other policies, could decrease global GDP by about 0.8 percent by 2025, the IMF said in an analysis.Trump’s rival, Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris, is part of an administration that has instead favored targeted levies on China.Both sides have been neck-and-neck in polls leading up to the November 5 election.Yellen warned Tuesday that broad-based tariffs could hit domestic consumer prices and impact the competitiveness of businesses that rely on imports.She argued that President Joe Biden’s government has “pursued global economic leadership” to the benefit of the US public and economy.”I am convinced that the sustained American economic leadership and engagement with partners we first restored and then strengthened over the past three and a half years will be indispensable as we move forward,” she told reporters on Tuesday.Companies in the United States have been bracing for the possibility of more levies as they monitor Trump’s proposals on the campaign trail.On Tuesday, the IMF released risk assessments on its economic projections, modeling a scenario in which trade tensions lead to a permanent increase in tariffs — and the United States, euro area and China impose a 10 percent rate on trade flows among the three regions.Its scenario also included a 10 percent tariff on trade flows between the United States and other countries in the world.”The increase in tariffs directly affects about one-quarter of all goods trade,” it noted.The scenario took in a 10-year extension of Trump administration tax cuts too, alongside other changes like reductions in net migration.Apart from the hit to global GDP in the combined effects of this situation, US GDP would also fall by about one percent relative to the IMF 2025 baseline.