Afp Business Asia

With his storm of tariffs on Chinese goods, US President Donald Trump has torched ties with Beijing and likely wrecked any hope of meeting his counterpart Xi Jinping in the near term, analysts say.Since taking office in January, Trump’s maelstrom of import duties against friend and foe alike has rattled diplomats and pushed global markets to the brink of financial meltdown.A screeching halt on further levies for most countries has calmed nerves — for now at least — but there has been no reprieve for China, accused by the US leader of trying to “screw” Washington.Adding to the tensions, talks between the two superpowers on international issues like climate change and opioid addiction seem to have stalled.”Under Trump, China-US ties have sunk to the worst state of affairs short of a fairly large armed conflict,” Shi Yinhong, director of the Center for American Studies at Beijing’s Renmin University of China, said.”Trump has unsheathed his dagger against China at a speed that exceeded many people’s imaginations,” he said.After a flurry of tit-for-tat hikes, the United States now charges tariffs of 145 percent on many products imported from China, with cumulative duties on some goods reaching a staggering 245 percent.A furious Beijing has set a retaliatory toll of 125 percent on goods entering from the United States, and dismissed further rises as pointless.US-China relations are in “effectively a state of economic war”, Susan Thornton, who served as acting top US diplomat for East Asia during Trump’s first administration, told AFP.”China views Trump’s stated intent to… erect a ‘tariff wall against China’ as illegal and an existential threat,” Thornton, now a senior fellow at Yale’s Paul Tsai China Center, said.- No backing down -Just a few weeks ago, multiple reports suggested Beijing and Washington were mulling a face-to-face meeting to coincide with the two leaders’ birthdays in June.But recent events have effectively left those plans dead in the water.Trump’s “rude and unreasonable” behaviour has made any talks in the first half of the year “very unlikely”, according to Wu Xinbo, director of the Center for American Studies at Shanghai’s Fudan University.Rosemary Foot, a professor and senior research fellow at Oxford University’s politics and international relations department, said Beijing “would want to ensure that there would be some policy deliverables and Xi would be treated with respect”.Trump has approached the trade conflict with a typical mixture of flattery, denigration and bombast — slamming China’s “lack of respect” while hailing Xi as a “smart guy” and talking up a prospective trade deal.Ali Wyne, a senior research and advocacy adviser focusing on US-China ties at the International Crisis Group think tank, said neither Trump nor Xi “will want to convey that he has yielded to the other”.The “likeliest impetus” for talks, he said, would be a scenario where both could claim victory — Trump by his willingness to keep ratcheting up economic pressure, and Xi by showing China’s resilience.Rana Mitter, a professor of US-Asia relations at the Harvard Kennedy School, said a Trump-Xi summit was “still quite possible”, citing the mercurial US leader’s dizzying pivot from threatening war against North Korea in 2017 to meeting Kim Jong Un the following year.”Beijing will not agree to meet if it looks as if they are conceding to the US, so behind-the-scenes diplomacy will likely be necessary,” Mitter said.- Back door shut -Other analysts said Trump’s fiery rhetoric and crippling tariffs had likely laid waste to backdoor talks.Under his predecessor Joe Biden, Washington and Beijing maintained dialogue on the fentanyl crisis, climate change and other issues.Those channels “are moribund now, as far as I can tell, and that makes it difficult to prepare the ground for such a summit”, Oxford’s Foot said.Wu, of Fudan, said Trump’s out-of-hand dismissal of Chinese efforts to curb fentanyl precursor exports and his climate change denial meant the space for lower-track dialogue “has, in practice, already disappeared”.In official pronouncements, China has mocked Trump’s tariffs as a “numbers game” and a “joke” with no economic benefits.Beijing has also sought to cast itself as a defender of fair trade and stability in the face of unwarranted US “bullying”.Experts said China may yet scent opportunity in the face of Trump’s economic carnage.”Trump’s colossally ill-conceived mass alienation of other countries may mean more receptivity for China’s outreach,” said Yale’s Thornton — adding that Beijing was likely conducting “economic triage”.

US Vice President JD Vance met with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi after a red carpet welcome in New Delhi on Monday, as India bids for an early trade deal to stave off punishing tariffs.Modi’s office said that there had been “significant progress in the negotiations” with the two countries negotiating the first tranche of a trade deal.New Delhi hopes to secure relief within the 90-day pause on steep tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump this month.Vance’s office similarly reported “significant progress” in the talks and said the two men had established a roadmap for how economic discussions would proceed.His four-day visit comes two months after Modi held talks at the White House with Trump, during which India pledged to buy more US oil and gas to offset its trade surplus with Washington.Yet that did not prevent India from being slapped with 26 percent tariffs by Trump, later lowered to 10 percent for the 90-day period.An honour guard and troupes of folk dancers greeted Vance after he stepped out into the sweltering sunshine of New Delhi on Monday morning, the start of a four-day tour that will include trips to the historic fort city of Jaipur and the Taj Mahal.”Ad-Vance-ing” US-India ties, broadcaster NDTV headlined its stories.Modi, who welcomed Vance to his residence on Monday evening with a bear hug, photographs released by the Indian government showed, later hosted the vice president and his family for dinner.The men discussed boosting “cooperation in energy, defence strategic technologies and other areas”, Modi’s office said, without giving further details.- ‘Boost’ -Vance’s visit comes during an escalating trade war between the United States and China. India’s neighbour and rival faces US levies of up to 145 percent on many products.Beijing has responded with duties of 125 percent on US goods. New Delhi has reacted cautiously so far.After Vance’s meetings Monday, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said he was “pleased to confirm” that Washington and India’s Ministry of Commerce “have finalized the Terms of Reference to lay down a roadmap for the negotiations on reciprocal trade”.Vance and Modi were also expected to discuss China, seen as a challenger in different domains by both governments. The two democracies are also a part of the “Quad” group with Australia and Japan. The US vice president is accompanied by his wife Usha, the daughter of Indian immigrants.Together with their three children, who were dressed in traditional flowing Indian attire, they visited the Hindu Akshardham Temple in New Delhi.Modi said during his visit to Washington that the world’s largest and fifth-largest economies would work on a “mutually beneficial trade agreement”.The United States is a crucial market for India’s information technology and services sectors. Washington in turn has made billions of dollars in new military hardware sales to New Delhi in recent years.Modi said he “looks forward” to a visit by Trump to India later this year, New Delhi said in a statement, with a potential Quad summit slated.Vance, 40, a devout Catholic convert, arrived in New Delhi a day after meeting Pope Francis in the Vatican.The vice president said his “heart goes out to the millions of Christians all over the world who loved him”, after the Vatican announced the death of the pope on Monday.

Gold prices hit a fresh record on Monday while the dollar tumbled further along with Wall Street equities as President Donald Trump again slammed Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.US equities had opened the session lower, but stumbled further shortly after the opening bell when Trump called Powell a “major loser” for not cutting interest rates in a social media post, underscoring questions about whether Trump will attempt to fire Powell after threatening the action last week.Worries about such a move gyrated through US markets on a day when many global markets were still closed for the Easter holiday.All three major equity indices finished down by around 2.5 percent while the US dollar retreated and Treasury bond yields moved higher. Gold prices soared to a fresh record above $3,400.There is a “narrative of weakening demand for US assets,” said Briefing.com analyst Patrick O’Hare.Trump’s continued banter about removing or replacing Powell throws into question the independence of the US central bank in which the Fed is free from political interference as it sets monetary policy based on the imperatives of ensuring stable prices and achieving maximum employment.Investors view this tradition as foundational to American markets.Jack Ablin, chief investment officer of Cresset Capital Management, said a move to replace Powell with an appointee who would follow Trump’s demands would bring a “crisis of confidence.”Analysts also pointed to weakness in influential technology names such as Nvidia, Google parent Alphabet and Apple as another factor in the selling, along with trade tensions.Several nations have moved to cut a deal with Washington to stem the worst of the White House’s levies, with Japan the highest-profile economy, while US Vice President JD Vance arrived in India on Monday for talks.However, China warned governments on Monday not to seek an agreement that compromised Beijing’s interests.While the rest of the world has been slapped with a blanket 10 percent tariff, China faces levies of up to 145 percent on many products. Beijing has responded with duties of 125 percent on US goods.Stocks had a mixed start to the week, with Tokyo weighed by the stronger yen while Taipei, Jakarta and Bangkok were also in negative territory. Shanghai, Seoul, Singapore, Mumbai and Manila rose.Oil prices dropped on demand fears as worries about the global economy swirl.Traders are keeping tabs on the release of key April manufacturing data around the world this week, hoping for an idea about the early impact of Trump’s tariffs.”One thing that’s absolutely clear — and no longer debatable — is that the reputational hit to the US brand is real, and it’s not fading quietly into the next news cycle,” said Stephen Innes at SPI Asset Management.”It’s sticking. Investors, allies, and even central banks are starting to bake in the idea that American policymaking, both fiscal and monetary, is now a geopolitical variable — not a given,” he added.- Key figures at 2045  GMT -New York – Dow: DOWN 2.5 percent at 38,170.41 (close)New York – S&P 500: DOWN 2.4 percent at 5,158.20 (close)New York – Nasdaq: DOWN 2.6 percent at 15,870.91 (close)Tokyo – Nikkei 225: DOWN 1.3 percent at 34,279.92 (close)Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.5 percent at 3,291.43 (close)Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: Closed for a holidayEuro/dollar: UP at $1.1510 from $1.1393 on ThursdayPound/dollar: UP $1.3377 at $1.3296Dollar/yen: DOWN at 140.89 yen from 142.18 yen Euro/pound: UP at 86.03 pence from 85.70 penceWest Texas Intermediate: DOWN 2.5 percent at $63.08 per barrelBrent North Sea Crude: DOWN 2.5 percent at $66.16 per barrelLondon – FTSE 100: Closed for a holidayNew York – Dow: Closed for a holiday

Chinese battery giant CATL launched on Monday a new sodium-ion battery it says will restructure the electric car industry, and a new system to combine two battery technologies into one car.The firm produces more than a third of all electric vehicle (EV) batteries sold worldwide, working with major brands including Tesla, Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Volkswagen.Sodium-ion batteries are viewed as a cheaper and in some respects safer alternative to the lithium-ion batteries which are widely used in both electronics and electric vehicles but pose a fire risk if damaged.”We will achieve mass production by the end of the year. It will restructure the whole industry,” CATL’s chief marketing officer Luo Jian told a news conference in Shanghai on Monday.Production of the sodium-ion batteries is due to start in June, beginning with small starter batteries for heavy goods vehicles under the Naxtra brand. This new battery is expected to offer a major advantage for starting vehicles in cold weather.Production of large batteries for electric and hybrid cars are due to follow in December of this year.The sodium-ion batteries have “emerged from the labs and are now ready for commercial scale production”, CATL CEO Robin Zeng told the news conference. Zeng said he sees sodium-ion batteries replacing half the market for lithium, iron and phosphate batteries.While sodium-ion technology has been around for decades, it has lagged behind lithium-ion batteries in performance. But renewed interest in the technology has meant sodium-ion batteries can be manufactured without the need for certain costly metals.CATL’s Naxtra batteries promise a driving range of 500 kilometres (310 miles) for electric cars.A few hours before the opening of the Shanghai Motor Show on Monday, CATL also launched the second generation of its Shenxing battery, due to be fitted in 67 cars this year belonging to Chinese brands Zeekr, Nio and Avatr.The fast-charging battery boasts an 800-kilometre driving range, and a 520-kilometre range regained in just five minutes of charging time — more than its Chinese rival BYD.CATL is counting on the development of battery exchange systems, such as that of its partner Nio, to disseminate its new technologies.But heavy tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump on China could increase the price of parts and cars. CATL executives declined to comment on tariffs.The US Defense Department has included CATL on a list of companies it accuses of affiliation with the Chinese military, a claim denied by CATL.At the Shanghai Motor Show, the group also presented as its new dual battery system for EVs.The firm’s technical director Gao Huan said the dual system will offer more safety, particularly for self-driving cars, by preventing failure if one of the two batteries malfunctions.A production date for the dual batteries, which have been in development for five years, has yet to be announced. But one car manufacturer is already using the dual system in its design of an autonomous car, Gao said.stsz-ew/ak/dhw/dw

Asian crime networks running multi-billion-dollar cyber scam centres are expanding their operations across the world as they seek new victims and new ways to launder money, the UN said on Monday.Chinese and Southeast Asian gangs are raking in tens of billions of dollars a year targeting victims through investment, cryptocurrency, romance and other scams — using an army of workers often trafficked and forced to toil in squalid compounds.The activity has largely been focused in Myanmar’s lawless border areas and dubious “special economic zones” set up in Cambodia and Laos.But a new report from the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) warned the networks are building up operations in South America, Africa, the Middle East, Europe and some Pacific islands.”We are seeing a global expansion of East and Southeast Asian organised crime groups,” said Benedikt Hofmann, UNODC Acting Regional Representative for Southeast Asia and the Pacific.”This reflects both a natural expansion as the industry grows and seeks new ways and places to do business, but also a hedging against future risks should disruption continue and intensify in Southeast Asia.”Countries in east and southeast Asia lost an estimated $37 billion to cyber fraud in 2023, the UNODC report said, adding that “much larger estimated losses” were reported around the world.The syndicates have expanded in Africa — notably in Zambia, Angola and Namibia — as well as Pacific islands such as Fiji, Palau, Tonga and Vanuatu.- Laundering through crypto -Besides seeking new bases and new victims, the criminal gangs are broadening their horizons to help launder their illicit income, the report said, pointing to team-ups with “South American drug cartels, the Italian mafia, and Irish mob, among many others”.Illicit cryptocurrency mining — unregulated and anonymous — has become a “powerful tool” for the networks to launder money, the report said.In June 2023 a sophisticated crypto mining operation in a militia-controlled territory in Libya, equipped with high-powered computers and high-voltage cooling units, was raided and 50 Chinese nationals arrested.The global spread of the syndicates’ operations has been driven in part by pressure from authorities in Southeast Asia.A major crackdown on scam centres in Myanmar this year, pushed by Beijing, led to around 7,000 workers from at least two dozen counrties being freed.But the UN report warns that while such efforts disrupt the scam gangs’ immediate activities, they have shown themselves able to adapt and relocate swiftly.”It spreads like a cancer,” UNODC’s Hoffman said.”Authorities treat it in one area, but the roots never disappear, they simply migrate.”Alongside the scam centres, staffed by a workforce estimated by the UN to be in the hundreds of thousands, the industry is further enabled by new technological developments.Operators have developed their own online ecosystems with payment applications, encrypted messaging platforms and cryptocurrencies, to get round mainstream platforms that might be targeted by law enforcement.

The World Economic Forum said on Monday that its founder Klaus Schwab has stepped down from the board, turning a page in the history of the organisation that hosts the annual meeting of wealthy, famous and influential global elites at the luxury Swiss ski resort of Davos.Schwab informed the WEF’s board that “as I enter my 88th year, I have decided to step down from the position of Chair and as a member of the Board of Trustees, with immediate effect”.Schwab stepped down as executive chairman last year, with former Norwegian foreign minister Borge Brende taking over daily management.The WEF said Vice Chairman Peter Brabeck-Letmathe was appointed board chairman in the interim and that a search committee for replacement had been appointed.WEF’s board hailed Schwab’s “outstanding achievements” in his 55 years as the leader of the organisation.”At a time when the world is undergoing rapid transformation, the need for inclusive dialogue to navigate complexity and shape the future has never been more critical,” it said in a statement. “Building on its trusted role, the Forum will continue to bring together leaders from all sectors and regions to exchange insights and foster collaboration,” it added.- Networking showcase -Schwab was born in Ravensburg, Germany, on March 30, 1938. He studied at Swiss universities and at Harvard in the United States, and holds doctorates in engineering and economics, along with more than a dozen honorary doctorates.He was a little-known business professor at the University of Geneva when in 1971 he founded the WEF’s precursor, the European Management Forum.That first meeting reportedly drew under 500 participants. Since then the event has swelled to attract thousands of people each year.Schwab later broadened the conclave by inviting top political and business leaders, representatives from leading non-governmental organisations, trade unions and civil society, assembling a prestigious Rolodex as he turned the gathering into a showcase for networking and exchanging ideas.Over the years, success bred further success as many of the world’s movers and shakers vied to rub shoulders in the Swiss Alps at panel discussions and apres-ski socialising.Newer regional meetings have joined the Davos calendar, and centres exploring key issues such as supply chains, cybersecurity, climate, energy and financial and monetary systems.The WEF maintains that it “provides a global, impartial and not-for-profit platform for meaningful connection between stakeholders to establish trust, and build initiatives for cooperation and progress”.Its mission, it says, is “improving the state of the world”.- ‘Davos Man’ -Critics have meanwhile repeatedly charged that WEF’s gatherings simply create a safe space for the corporate world to lobby governments without oversight. The event has fostered the concept of the “Davos Man”, referring to the elite crowd of affluent and sometimes super-wealthy movers and shakers with global clout and reach.  Schwab and his organisation have long been the focus of conspiracy theorists.After he called the first Davos summit following Covid-19 pandemic shutdowns as “The Great Reset”, conspiracy theorists charged he was the incarnation of a globalised elite seeking to enslave and even eliminate portions of humanity.Disinformation has spread on social media alleging that decisions have been taken during secretive Davos meetings to unleash epidemics and promote things like paedophilia and mass starvation.Elon Musk, the multi-billionaire owner of X, even said on the platform that Schwab “wants to be emperor of Earth”.Misinformation and disinformation topped the WEF’s list of short-term global risks in its latest global risk report.

China on Monday hit out at other countries making trade deals with the United States at Beijing’s expense, vowing countermeasures against those who “appease” Washington in the blistering tariff war as its neighbours rush to secure favourable terms from the White House.While the rest of the world has been hit with a blanket 10 percent tariff, China faces levies of up to 145 percent on many products. Beijing has responded with duties of 125 percent on US goods.Parallel to Washington’s full trade war against top economic rival China, a number of countries are now engaged in negotiations with the United States to lower tariffs.The finance and trade ministers from South Korea — a major exporter to the United States — will hold high-level trade talks in Washington this week, Seoul said.South Korean giants such as Samsung Electronics and auto maker Hyundai stand to take a hefty hit if the White House goes ahead with its threatened levies.Japan’s prime minister Shigeru Ishiba said on Saturday that talks between Japan and the United States could be a “model for the world”, after Tokyo’s tariffs envoy Ryosei Akazawa visited Washington and met President Donald Trump last week.”The fact that President Trump came out (to negotiate with Japan’s envoy)… shows he sees talks with Japan as important,” he told the country’s parliament on Monday.”Japan is their ally and the biggest investor and job creator in the US,” Ishiba said.Tokyo and Washington are due to hold more talks soon  — but the Japanese prime minister also said that substance was more important than speed.”They (the United States) are not in a hurry and we think haste makes waste. At stake is how substantive (the negotiations) will be rather than how quickly they proceed,” local media quoted Ishiba as saying.Reports have suggested that as concessions for Trump, Japan might increase imports of US soybean and rice, or relax car safety standards.But Ishiba said Monday that “be it cars or agricultural products, we will not do anything that will affect safety”.- ‘Appeasement’ -US Vice President JD Vance also arrived in India on Monday for a four-day official visit as the two countries work to hash out a trade agreement.That came the same day as Beijing warned nations not to seek a deal with the United States that compromised its interests.”Appeasement will not bring peace, and compromise will not be respected,” a spokesperson for China’s commerce ministry said in a statement.”To seek one’s own temporary selfish interests at the expense of others’ interests is to seek the skin of a tiger,” Beijing said.That approach, it warned, “will ultimately fail on both ends and harm others”.”China firmly opposes any party reaching a deal at the expense of China’s interests,” the spokesperson said.”If such a situation occurs, China will never accept it and will resolutely take reciprocal countermeasures,” they added.- ‘Talking to China’ -The China-US standoff has sparked global recession fears and rattled markets.Trump said last week that the United States was in talks with China on tariffs, adding that he was confident the world’s largest economies could make a deal to end the bitter trade war.”Yeah, we’re talking to China,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office. “I would say they have reached out a number of times.””I think we’re going to make a very good deal with China,” he said at the White House.China has vowed to fight the trade war “to the end” and has not confirmed specific talks with Washington, though it has called for dialogue.Speaking alongside his Indonesian counterpart in Beijing on Monday, top Chinese diplomat Wang Yi called for “openness, inclusiveness, mutual benefit and win-win” and condemned “any form of unilateralism and trade protectionism”.”The abuse of tariffs will seriously damage the normal economic and trade exchanges among countries,” he warned.Beijing’s commerce ministry also warned about an international order reverting to the “law of the jungle”.As part of Trump’s trade war, the US government has also lowered the threshold at which parcels to individuals require formal entry processing by US Customs — to $800 from $2,500 as of April 5.Trump’s government has taken particular aim at China, and earlier this month Washington closed a duty-free exemption for small parcels from the country, a move that appeared to be designed to target low-cost online retailers like Temu and Shein.In a statement in response, global shipping giant DHL said it will “temporarily” suspend the shipping of parcels worth more than $800 from businesses to individuals in the United States as of Monday.burs-oho/dan

Gold prices hit a fresh record on Monday while the dollar weakened further and stocks were mixed amid worries about Donald Trump’s tariff blitz and his bubbling row with the Federal Reserve.With several markets still closed for the Easter holiday, business was limited ahead of a week that will see the release of key data that should give an insight into the impact of the US president’s trade war.Several nations have moved to cut a deal with Washington to stem the worst of the White House’s levies, with Japan the highest-profile economy, while US Vice President JD Vance arrived in India on Monday for talks.South Korea’s finance and trade ministers will hold high-level trade talks in Washington this week, Seoul said.However, China warned governments on Monday not to seek an agreement that compromised Beijing’s interests.While the rest of the world has been slapped with a blanket 10 percent tariff, China faces levies of up to 145 percent on many products. Beijing has responded with duties of 125 percent on US goods.”Appeasement will not bring peace, and compromise will not be respected,” a commerce ministry spokesperson said in a statement.”To seek one’s own temporary selfish interests at the expense of others’ interests is to seek the skin of a tiger,” Beijing said.That approach, it warned, “will ultimately fail on both ends and harm others”.Top Chinese diplomat Wang Yi also called on Monday for “openness, inclusiveness, mutual benefit and win-win” and condemned “any form of unilateralism and trade protectionism”.The remarks come after Trump said on Thursday the United States was in talks with China on tariffs, adding that he was confident the world’s largest economies could make a deal to end the bitter trade war.”Yeah, we’re talking to China,” he said. “I would say they have reached out a number of times.””I think we’re going to make a very good deal with China.”Still, Washington this month closed a duty-free exemption for small parcels from China, a move that appeared to be designed to target low-cost online retailers such as Temu and Shein.Global shipping giant DHL said it will “temporarily” suspend from Monday the delivery of parcels worth more than $800 from businesses to individuals in the United States.Concerns about the global economic outlook pushed safe haven assets higher, with gold hitting a record high above $3,393.The precious metal was also helped by a weaker dollar, which has also been hit by worries about Trump’s standoff with Fed boss Jerome Powell.The president raised worries about the bank’s independence when he lashed Powell last week for warning that the tariffs were “highly likely to generate at least a temporary rise in inflation” and suggested interest rate cuts were unlikely.Trump later called on him to slash borrowing costs and added: “If I want him out, he’ll be out of there real fast, believe me.”Powell has said he had no plans to step down early, adding that he considered the bank’s independence over monetary policy to be a “matter of law”.The dollar fell against its main peers, with the yen and euro among the best performers.French Finance Minister Eric Lombard said: “Donald Trump has hurt the credibility of the dollar with his aggressive moves on tariffs — for a long time.”If Powell is pushed out “this credibility will be harmed even more, with developments in the bond market”, he told La Tribune Dimanche newspaper.Chicago Fed boss Austan Goolsbee told CBS’s Face The Nation on Sunday: “There’s virtual unanimity among economists that monetary independence from political interference — that the Fed or any central bank be able to do the job that it needs to do — is really important.”Stocks had a mixed start to the week, with Tokyo weighed by the stronger yen while Taipei, Jakarta and Bangkok were also in negative territory. Shanghai, Seoul, Singapore, Mumbai and Manila rose.Oil prices dropped on demand fears as worries about the global economy swirl. Traders are keeping tabs on the release of key April manufacturing data around the world this week, hoping for an idea about the early impact of Trump’s tariffs.”One thing that’s absolutely clear — and no longer debatable — is that the reputational hit to the US brand is real, and it’s not fading quietly into the next news cycle,” said Stephen Innes at SPI Asset Management.”It’s sticking. Investors, allies, and even central banks are starting to bake in the idea that American policymaking, both fiscal and monetary, is now a geopolitical variable — not a given,” he added.- Key figures at 0715 GMT -Tokyo – Nikkei 225: DOWN 1.3 percent at 34,279.92 (close)Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.5 percent at 3,291.43 (close)Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: Closed for a holidayEuro/dollar: UP at $1.1516 from $1.1371 on ThursdayPound/dollar: UP $1.3387 at $1.3270Dollar/yen: DOWN at 140.85 yen from 142.33 yen Euro/pound: UP at 86.04 pence from 85.68 penceWest Texas Intermediate: DOWN 1.4 percent at $63.13 per barrelBrent North Sea Crude: DOWN 1.3 percent at $67.06 per barrelLondon – FTSE 100: Closed for a holidayNew York – Dow: Closed for a holiday

US Vice President JD Vance began a four-day visit to India on Monday as New Delhi looks to seal an early trade deal and stave off punishing US tariffs.Vance’s visit comes two months after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi held talks with US President Donald Trump at the White House.A red carpet welcome with an honour guard and troupes of folk dancers greeted Vance after he stepped out into the sweltering sunshine of New Delhi, where he is set to meet with Modi.Vance, 40, a devout Catholic convert who arrived in New Delhi a day after meeting Pope Francis in the Vatican, toured a vast Hindu temple with his family on one of his first stops.The US vice president is accompanied by his wife Usha, the daughter of Indian immigrants, and his three children, who visited the Akshardham Temple dressed in traditional flowing Indian attire.Vance’s tour will include a trip on Tuesday to Jaipur in Rajasthan — site of the medieval Amber fort — and to Agra a day after, for a visit to the white marble mausoleum of the Taj Mahal.More important will be the meeting later on Monday between Modi and Vance.They are expected to “review the progress” in relations” and “exchange views on regional and global developments of mutual interest”, according to India’s foreign ministry.India and the United States are negotiating the first tranche of a trade deal, which New Delhi hopes to secure within the 90-day pause on tariffs announced by Trump this month. “We are very positive that the visit will give a further boost to our bilateral ties,” India’s foreign ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal told reporters last week.- ‘Special bond’ -Vance’s visit comes during an escalating trade war between the United States and China. India’s neighbour and rival faces US levies of up to 145 percent on many products.Beijing has responded with duties of 125 percent on US goods.India, hit with tariffs of 26 percent before Trump’s pause, has reacted cautiously so far.India’s Department of Commerce said after the tariffs were announced it was “carefully examining the implications”, adding it was “also studying the opportunities that may arise”.Modi, who visited the White House in February, has an acknowledged rapport with Trump, who said he shares a “special bond” with the Indian leader. Trump, speaking while unveiling the tariffs, said Modi was a “great friend” but that he had not been “treating us right”.Modi said during his visit to Washington that the world’s largest and fifth-largest economies would work on a “mutually beneficial trade agreement”.The United States is a crucial market for India’s information technology and services sectors but Washington in turn has made billions of dollars in new military hardware sales to New Delhi in recent years.Trump could visit India later this year for a summit of heads of state from the “Quad” — a four-way grouping of Australia, India, Japan and the United States.

Josh Staph fears the fun-packed shelves of his toy warehouse might start looking joyless in the months ahead, with made-in-China flying discs and model gliders grounded -– like much of his product line –- by Donald Trump’s tariffs.”Things have ground to a halt,” said Staph, chief executive of Duncan Toys Company, which has a warehouse in Indiana. With his products now facing a steep 145 percent levy, “we stopped shipping goods into the US,” he added.Nearly 100 days into President Donald Trump’s White House return, US businesses are scrambling to adjust to fast-changing trade policies.The $40 billion toy industry, which heavily relies on production in China, is hard hit, companies tell AFP.Of over $17 billion worth of toys imported to the US last year, more than $13 billion came from China.Duncan’s entire product range is designed and developed in the United States, Staph said, but Chinese factories make almost all the toys.Firms there have developed specialized abilities to produce intricate parts for items like its best-selling yo-yos.Most American toy companies have halted shipments since Trump imposed new tariffs on many products from China this year, Staph said.The move raised the duty that US firms pay when they import any Chinese-made toys — from plushies to action figures — from zero to 145 percent, more than doubling import costs.”It’s pretty debilitating,” Staph added. “As a business leader, after 100 days of the administration, I’d say that the most challenging part is the uncertainty.” “It’s tough to build any sort of strategy and go for a plan when we know that things are changing almost on a daily basis.”- ‘Tariff surcharges’ -Rita Pin Ahrens, who runs three toy stores including one in Washington, started receiving “tariff surcharges” of 15 percent to 25 percent in March. She expects them to mount to 145 percent.Many of the thousands of toys she sells are either imported from places like China, or are partially made in the world’s second biggest economy.Still, she said: “We’re trying to minimize the cost to our consumers.”This has meant holding off purchases that become too pricey or stocking up before tariffs kicked in. And shipment delays have already begun.”It has been a complete nightmare,” she said. “I am really, truly worried about whether we can actually sustain the store.”Many US brands are small businesses with limited cashflow, said Greg Ahearn, chief executive of industry group The Toy Association.They struggle to pay sudden tariffs on containers of toys that may have already been manufactured.Meanwhile, “production of toys has all but stopped in China,” he said.- ‘Difficult Christmas’ -Staph of Duncan Toys said inventory to supply US retailers like Target and Walmart through year-end holidays has not entered the country yet.Typically, toys produced in spring arrive over the summer for shipping in the fall as stores prepare for the holiday shopping boom, with around 90 percent of stock coming from overseas.”If this isn’t cleared up in 30 to 60 days, it’s going to be a really difficult Christmas season with empty shelves in a lot of major retailers,” Staph warned.And if tariffs remain in force, “the pricing of those toys that are even available will probably be twice, if not more, the price they were last year,” said Ahearn of The Toy Association.While the United States makes some toys, many products require hand labor and it will take years to grow the US manufacturing base, Ahearn believes.The injection molding process used to produce many items requires extremely large, heavy tools that cannot be moved and must be installed from scratch.Companies were ready to work around Trump’s 10 percent additional tariff on Chinese imports, imposed in February over China’s alleged role in the fentanyl supply chain.But in March, Trump raised the level to 20 percent. In April, the figure exploded to 145 percent.Staph hopes the toy industry can gain exemptions, noting that Trump has begun targeting specific industries.”Toys are important for children’s development,” Ahrens said, noting that toys were excluded from tariffs during Trump’s first administration.”I really urge the president to do that again.”