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North Korea fired “multiple unidentified ballistic missiles” on Monday, South Korea’s military said, the same day Seoul and Washington began a major annual joint military drill known as Freedom Shield.”Our military has detected at around 13:50 (0450 GMT) multiple unidentified ballistic missiles fired from Hwanghae province into the West Sea,” the Joint Chiefs of Staff said, referring to the body of water also known as the Yellow Sea.”Our military will bolster surveillance and maintain a full readiness posture under close cooperation with the United States,” the JCS added.The United States stations tens of thousands of US soldiers in South Korea, and the allies regularly stage joint drills, which they describe as defensive in nature. But such exercises infurate Pyongyang, which regards them as rehearsals for invasion and routinely responds with weapons tests of its own. Earlier Monday, the nuclear-armed North slammed the drills as a “provocative act”, warning of the danger of sparking war with “an accidental single shot”.”This is a dangerous provocative act of leading the acute situation on the Korean peninsula, which may spark off a physical conflict between the two sides by means of an accidental single shot,” said Pyongyang’s foreign ministry, according to the Korean Central News Agency.The joint US-South Korea “Freedom Shield 2025” exercise kicked off on Monday, and will involve “live, virtual, and field-based training”, according to a US statement.The exercise will run until March 20, the statement said.The latest exercise comes after two South Korean Air Force fighter jets accidentally dropped eight bombs on a village during a joint training exercise with US forces on March 6. Some 31 people, including civilians and military personnel, were wounded in that incident, South Korea’s military said.Relations between Pyongyang and Seoul have been at one of their lowest points in years, with the North launching a flurry of ballistic missiles last year in violation of UN sanctions.The two Koreas remain technically at war since their 1950-1953 conflict ended in an armistice, not a peace treaty.The large-scale Freedom Shield exercises are one of the allies’ biggest annual joint exercises.In its statement on Monday, North Korea’s foreign ministry dubbed the exercises “an aggressive and confrontational war rehearsal”.Last week, Pyongyang slammed the United States for “political and military provocations” over the visit of a US Navy aircraft carrier to the South Korean port of Busan.

Iran said Monday it would not negotiate under “intimidation”, after US President Donald Trump sought to ratchet up pressure on Tehran by ending a sanctions waiver that had allowed Iraq to buy electricity from its Shiite neighbour.Iran’s mission to the United Nations had indicated Sunday that Tehran might be open to talks aimed at addressing US concerns about the potential militarisation of its nuclear programme — though not to ending the program completely.But on Monday, Iran’s top diplomat seemed to slam the door on such discussions, saying Tehran’s nuclear programme was and always will be entirely peaceful and so there was “no such thing as its ‘potential militarization'”.”We will NOT negotiate under pressure and intimidation. We will NOT even consider it, no matter what the subject may be,” foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said on social media platform X.Since returning to the White House in January, Trump has reinstated his policy of exerting “maximum pressure” against Iran, reimposing sweeping sanctions aimed at crushing its oil industry in particular.The US State Department said Sunday the decision not to renew Iraq’s sanctions waiver was made to “ensure we do not allow Iran any degree of economic or financial relief.”Iran supplies a third of Iraq’s gas and electricity, providing Tehran with substantial income.- ‘Never take place’ -On Sunday, the Iranian mission to the United Nations had sounded a more conciliatory note, suggested Tehran might be willing to discuss certain issues.”If the objective of negotiations is to address concerns vis-a-vis any potential militarization of Iran’s nuclear program, such discussions may be subject to consideration,” said a statement from the mission.”However, should the aim be the dismantlement of Iran’s peaceful nuclear program to claim that what (President Barack) Obama failed to achieve has now been accomplished, such negotiations will never take place,” it said.The waiver for Iraq was introduced in 2018, when Washington reimposed sanctions on Tehran after Trump abandoned a nuclear deal with Iran negotiated under Obama.A spokesman for the US embassy in Baghdad on Sunday urged Baghdad “to eliminate its dependence on Iranian sources of energy as soon as possible.””The President’s maximum pressure campaign is designed to end Iran’s nuclear threat, curtail its ballistic missile program, and stop it from supporting terrorist groups,” the spokesman said.The landmark 2015 deal that Obama helped negotiate between Tehran and major powers promised sanctions relief in return for Iran curbing its nuclear programme.Tehran, which denies seeking nuclear weapons, initially adhered to the nuclear deal after Trump pulled out of it, but then rolled back commitments.US officials estimate Iran would now need mere weeks to build a nuclear bomb if it chose to.- ‘All scenarios’ -Trump pulled out of the agreement over the objections of European allies, instead imposing US sanctions on any other country buying Iran’s oil. The waiver was extended to Iraq as a “key partner” of the United States.Iraq, despite having immense oil and gas reserves, remains dependent on such energy imports. But Baghdad said it had prepared “for all scenarios” regarding the waiver.The ending of the energy waiver is expected to worsen the power shortages that affect the daily lives of 46 million Iraqis.Gulf analyst Yesar Al-Maleki of the Middle East Economic Survey said Iraq will now face challenges in providing electricity, especially during summer.To alleviate the impact, Iraq has several options including increasing imports from Turkey.

Immigration officers have arrested a leader of the protests at Columbia University against Israel’s war in Gaza, authorities said Sunday, after US President Donald Trump vowed to deport foreign pro-Palestinian student demonstrators.Mahmoud Khalil, one of the most prominent faces of the university’s protest movement that erupted in response to Israel’s conduct of the war, was arrested on Sunday, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) said on X.The agency said the action was taken “in support of President Trump’s executive orders prohibiting anti-Semitism, and in coordination with the Department of State.”The Student Workers of Columbia Union said in a statement that Khalil had been detained on Saturday, describing him as “a Palestinian recent Columbia graduate and lead negotiator for last spring’s Gaza solidarity encampment.”US campuses including Columbia’s in New York were rocked by student protests against Israel’s war in Gaza following the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack. The demonstrations ignited accusations of anti-Semitism.Protests, some of which turned violent and saw campus buildings occupied and lectures disrupted, pitted students protesting Israel’s conduct against pro-Israel campaigners, many of whom were Jewish. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio wrote on X that “we will be revoking the visas and/or green cards of Hamas supporters in America so they can be deported.”Khalil, who remains in immigration enforcement detention, held permanent residency at the time of his arrest prompting thousands of people to sign a petition calling for his release, the union statement added.”We are also aware of multiple reports of Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents accessing or attempting to access Columbia campus buildings on Friday and Saturday, including undergraduate dorms,” the union said.Columbia did not directly address Khalil’s arrest in response to inquiries, but in a statement said “there have been reports of ICE in the streets around campus.” “Columbia has and will continue to follow the law. Consistent with our longstanding practice and the practice of cities and institutions throughout the country, law enforcement must have a judicial warrant to enter non-public University areas, including University buildings,” Columbia said.In its post on X, the DHS said Khalil “led activities aligned to Hamas, a designated terrorist organization,” without further details.Trump railed against the student protest movement linked to the conflict in Gaza, and vowed to deport foreign students who had demonstrated.He also threatened to cut off federal funding for institutions that he said were not doing enough to combat anti-Semitism.His administration announced Friday it was cutting $400 million in federal grants to Columbia University, accusing it of failing to protect Jewish students from harassment.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio set off on Sunday to fly to Saudi Arabia for talks with Ukraine, as President Donald Trump decides whether to relent on a freeze in military and intelligence support.Rubio will then travel on to Group of Seven (G7) talks in Canada, making him the first major US official to visit since Trump returned to office, launched a trade war the neighboring country and mocked its sovereignty.In three days of talks in Jeddah, Rubio will discuss how to “advance the president’s goal to end the Russia-Ukraine war,” said State Department spokeswoman Tammy Bruce.The talks in Jeddah on Tuesday are expected to involve Rubio and Trump’s national security advisor, Mike Waltz, with Zelensky’s national security advisor and foreign and defense ministers. “The fact that they are coming here at senior levels is a good indication to us that they want to sit down and they’re ready to move forward,” a senior State Department official said.Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky is also expected in Saudi Arabia, but to pay a visit to Riyadh and not to participate directly in the Jeddah talks.Trump, asked separately about the hopes for a quick resolution, told reporters Sunday: “I think we’re going to have a good result in Saudi Arabia… we have a lot of good people going out there.”And I think Ukraine’s going to do well, and I think Russia is going to do well. I think some very big things could happen this week. I hope so.”Trump suspended aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine after a disastrous February 28 meeting with Zelensky at the White House.The Republican leader and his vice president, JD Vance, publicly dressed Zelensky down for alleged ingratitude over billions of dollars worth of previous US weapons shipments.Zelensky left without signing an agreement demanded by Trump in which Ukraine would hand over much of its mineral wealth to the United States, which Trump argues will compensate US taxpayers for the assistance provided under former president Joe Biden.Zelensky has since said he is ready to sign the minerals deal and has sent a conciliatory letter to Trump, who read it at his address to Congress on Tuesday.- Frozen aid -Keith Kellogg, the US special envoy on Russia and Ukraine, said Thursday he would support resuming assistance once Zelensky signs the deal — but that the decision was ultimately up to Trump.NBC News, quoting unnamed sources, said Trump was unlikely to relent just with the minerals deal and would want to be assured that Zelensky is ready to make concessions to Russia.Trump told reporters Sunday he did not think Ukraine had yet shown they “want peace.””Right now they haven’t shown it to the extent that they should… but I think they will be, and I think it’s going to become evident over the next two or three days.”Stunned European leaders have been racing to find ways to make up for US aid, although Zelensky himself has said that there is no substitute for Washington’s security guarantees in a deal with Russia.Rubio last month met his Russian counterpart, breaking a Biden-era freeze on such high-level contacts, and spoke of future economic cooperation if the war ends.Those talks also took place in Saudi Arabia, which has positioned itself as a key diplomatic partner for Trump.Rubio will also meet in Jeddah with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the kingdom’s de facto ruler, the State Department said.Trump is expected to push hard for Saudi Arabia to recognize Israel, a prospect that seems remote until a permanent end to the Gaza war — a priority for Witkoff as he travels the region. Rubio will then head to Quebec for a meeting of the Group of Seven foreign ministers where his spokeswoman said he will work to “further US interests in peace and security, strategic cooperation, and global stability.”She made no mention of tensions with Canada, which Trump has mocked as the “51st state” as he unleashes tariffs, although he has partially backed off faced with a slide on stock markets.

Top energy industry figures converge on Houston this week for their biggest gathering since Donald Trump returned to the White House to champion fossil fuels and undo Joe Biden’s climate legacy.The president himself won’t appear at the annual Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) conference, but Trump appointees are expected to talk up the Republican’s petroleum-led program as embodied by the slogan: “Drill Baby Drill.”Since returning to Washington less than two months ago, Trump and his team have laid siege to the existing economic order at a dizzying pace, launching trade wars against allies and neutering government agencies the president and his libertarian allies dislike.Trump made energy central to his agenda with his day-one “Unleashing American Energy” executive order, vowing during his inaugural address to “end the Green New Deal” in favor of “that liquid gold under our feet.”Trump’s January 20 executive order represents a potentially wide-ranging attack on tax incentives embraced by energy companies to advance billions of dollars of energy transition projects connected to laws enacted during Biden’s presidency to mitigate climate change.Some pundits think Trump will stop short of actions canceling existing projects, where workers have been hired, including many in Republican regions.But the abrupt shift to Trump from the climate-focused Biden likely “turns 2025 into a paralyzed year where folks are hesitant to push on any kind of decarbonization,” said Dan Pickering of Pickering Energy Partners, a Houston advisory and investment firm.- More drilling? -The schedule for the five-day Houston CERA gathering lists three top Trump appointees, including Energy Secretary Chris Wright, who will open the proceedings on Monday morning.Interior Secretary Doug Burgum and Environmental Protection Agency head Lee Zeldin are slated to speak later in the week.Wright, an energy industry entrepreneur and executive, and Burgum, the former governor of North Dakota, appeared together last week to tout an announcement by Venture Global of an $18 billion expansion of a liquefied natural gas export facility in Louisiana.The event highlighted Trump’s reversal of a Biden freeze on permitting new LNG export capacity.Trump has ridiculed the environmental concerns at the center of Biden’s policy, championing LNG exports as a way to strengthen America’s ties with energy importing countries, as well as a way to boost the US exploration and production industry.But there has been widespread skepticism about Trump’s message urging the industry to significantly boost oil and gas drilling in order to lift output and lower energy prices. Wall Street has signaled a clear preference for robust industry profits that can continue to allow for dividends and share repurchases.Besides the Trump officials, other speakers include CEOs from Chevron, Shell, Saudi Aramco and other oil giants; senior government officials from energy importers like India and exporters like Libya; top power and tech industry executives.There are panels on low-carbon technologies, the electricity supply challenge to support artificial intelligence research, OPEC’s influence in setting oil prices and the shifting geopolitics around energy and international trade.- Questions for Europe -European officials are to appear on panels focused on Europe at a crossroads after shifting from Russian supplies  and the role of energy in the future of the continent’s security.In the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, US LNG “played a super-important role” for Europe as the continent sought to lessen its dependence on Russian gas, said Jonathan Elkind, a fellow at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University.But European leaders have been forced to reckon with the current state of the transatlantic alliance in light of Trump’s alignment with Russian President Vladimir Putin and tensions with Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky.Whether a Russia-Ukraine peace deal might lead to a restoration of some Russian natural gas exports to Europe remains an open question.In the short run, including at CERA, Elkind expects European officials to continue to speak optimistically of the prospects for more US LNG.But “at the back of their mind… it’s pretty hard to tell whether Donald Trump is friend or foe and that’s a shocking thing to say after 70 years of a close alliance,” Elkind said.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio set off on Sunday to fly to Saudi Arabia for talks with Ukraine, as President Donald Trump decides whether to relent on a freeze in military and intelligence support.Rubio will then travel on to Group of Seven (G7) talks in Canada, making him the first major US official to visit since Trump returned to office, launched a trade war the neighboring country and mocked its sovereignty.In three days of talks in Jeddah, Rubio will discuss how to “advance the president’s goal to end the Russia-Ukraine war,” said State Department spokeswoman Tammy Bruce.She avoided characterizing the crisis as a “Russian invasion of Ukraine” as the previous administration and US allies have done.Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has previously announced that he will be in Jeddah for the talks, as has Trump confidant and envoy Steve Witkoff. Rubio left Miami’s Homestead Air Base at around 08:00 pm local time (midnight GMT).Trump, asked separately on his own plane about the hopes for a quick resolution, told reporters Sunday: “I think we’re going to have a good result in Saudi Arabia… we have a lot of good people going out there.”And I think Ukraine’s going to do well, and I think Russia is going to do well. I think some very big things could happen this week. I hope so.”Trump suspended aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine after a disastrous February 28 meeting with Zelensky at the White House.The Republican leader and his vice president, JD Vance, publicly dressed Zelensky down for alleged ingratitude over billions of dollars worth of previous US weapons shipments.Zelensky left without signing an agreement demanded by Trump in which Ukraine would hand over much of its mineral wealth to the United States, which Trump argues will compensate US taxpayers for the assistance provided under former president Joe Biden.Zelensky has since said he is ready to sign the minerals deal and has sent a conciliatory letter to Trump, who read it at his address to Congress on Tuesday.- Frozen aid -Keith Kellogg, the US special envoy on Russia and Ukraine, said Thursday he would support resuming assistance once Zelensky signs the deal — but that the decision was ultimately up to Trump.NBC News, quoting unnamed sources, said Trump was unlikely to relent just with the minerals deal and would want to be assured that Zelensky is ready to make concessions to Russia.Trump told reporters Sunday he did not think Ukraine had yet shown they “want peace.””Right now they haven’t shown it to the extent that they should… but I think they will be, and I think it’s going to become evident over the next two or three days.”Stunned European leaders have been racing to find ways to make up for US aid, although Zelensky himself has said that there is no substitute for Washington’s security guarantees in a deal with Russia.Russia, which invaded three years ago, has not let up in striking Ukraine, including its energy infrastructure. Trump on Friday also threatened to tighten sanctions on Russia if it does not come to the table.Rubio last month met his Russian counterpart, breaking a Biden-era freeze on such high-level contacts, and spoke of future economic cooperation if the war ends.Those talks also took place in Saudi Arabia, which has positioned itself as a key diplomatic partner for Trump.Rubio will also meet in Jeddah with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the kingdom’s de facto ruler, the State Department said.Trump is expected to push hard for Saudi Arabia to recognize Israel, a prospect that seems remote until a permanent end to the Gaza war — a priority for Witkoff as he travels the region. Rubio will then head to Quebec for a meeting of the Group of Seven foreign ministers where his spokeswoman said he will work to “further US interests in peace and security, strategic cooperation, and global stability.”She made no mention of tensions with Canada, which Trump has mocked as the “51st state” as he unleashes tariffs, although he has partially backed off faced with a slide on stock markets.

President Donald Trump declined Sunday to rule out the possibility that the United States might enter a recession this year.”I hate to predict things like that,” he told a Fox News interviewer when asked directly about a possible recession in 2025.”There is a period of transition, because what we’re doing is very big — we’re bringing wealth back to America,” he said, adding, “It takes a little time.”Trump’s commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, was more definitive when asked Sunday about the possibility of a recession.”Absolutely not,” he told NBC’s “Meet the Press” when asked whether Americans should brace for a downturn.Trump’s on-again, off-again tariff threats against Canada, Mexico, China and others have left the US financial markets in turmoil and consumers unsure what the year might bring. Stock markets just ended their worst week since the November election.Measures of consumer confidence are down, as shoppers — already battered by years of inflation — brace for the higher prices that tariffs can bring.And widespread government layoffs being engineered by Trump’s billionaire advisor Elon Musk add further concern.When asked later Sunday to clarify his remarks on whether there could be a recession, Trump told reports on Air Force One “Who knows?”Overall, the signs are mixed.A widely watched Atlanta Federal Reserve index now predicts a 2.4 percent contraction of real GDP growth in the year’s first quarter, which would be the worst result since the height of the Covid-19 pandemic.Much of the uncertainty stems from Trump’s shifting tariff policy — effective dates have changed, as have the sectors being targeted — as businesses and investors try to puzzle out what will come next.Kevin Hassett, Trump’s chief economic advisor, was asked on ABC whether tariffs were primarily temporary or might become permanent.Hassett said that depended on the behavior of the countries targeted. If they failed to respond positively, he said, the result could be a “new equilibrium” of continuing tariffs.The administration has insisted that while the economy will pass through a possibly bumpy “transition,” things are headed in a positive direction.In his State of the Union message on Tuesday, Trump told Americans to expect “a little disturbance” as tariffs take hold, while adding: “We’re okay with that. It won’t be much.” And his Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has warned of a “detox period” as the economy cuts government spending.Given the uncertainties, economists have been wary of making firm predictions. Economists at Goldman Sachs, citing Trump’s policies, have raised their odds of a recession over the next 12 months from 15 percent to 20 percent.And Morgan Stanley predicted “softer growth this year” than earlier expected.Recessions are generally defined as two consecutive quarters of weak or negative GDP growth. The US was briefly in recession in early 2020 as the Covid pandemic spread. Millions of people lost jobs.

A leader of Columbia University protests against Israel’s war in Gaza was arrested by immigration officers, a campus union said Sunday, after US President Donald Trump vowed to deport foreign pro-Palestinian student demonstrators.Mahmoud Khalil, one of the most prominent faces in the campus’s protest movement that erupted in response to Israel’s conduct of the war, was arrested Saturday, the Student Workers of Columbia union said.”On Saturday, Department of Homeland Security (DHS) officers detained Mahmoud Khalil, a Palestinian recent Columbia graduate and lead negotiator for last spring’s Gaza solidarity encampment,” the union said in a statement.US campuses including Columbia’s in New York were rocked by student protests against Israel’s war in Gaza following the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack. The demonstrations ignited accusations of anti-Semitism.Protests, some of which turned violent and saw campus buildings occupied and lectures disrupted, pitted students protesting Israel’s conduct against pro-Israel campaigners, many of whom were Jewish. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio wrote on X that “we will be revoking the visas and/or green cards of Hamas supporters in America so they can be deported.”Khalil, who remains in immigration enforcement detention, held permanent residency at the time of his arrest prompting thousands of people to sign a petition calling for his release, the union statement added. “We are also aware of multiple reports of Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents accessing or attempting to access Columbia campus buildings on Friday and Saturday, including undergraduate dorms,” the union said.Columbia did not directly address Khalil’s arrest in response to inquiries, but in a statement said “there have been reports of ICE in the streets around campus.” “Columbia has and will continue to follow the law. Consistent with our longstanding practice and the practice of cities and institutions throughout the country, law enforcement must have a judicial warrant to enter non-public University areas, including University buildings,” Columbia said.The Department of Homeland Security did not respond to a request for comment.Trump railed against the student protest movement linked to the conflict in Gaza, and vowed to deport foreign students who had demonstrated.He also threatened to cut off federal funding for institutions that he said were not doing enough to combat anti-Semitism.His administration announced Friday it was cutting $400 million in federal grants to Columbia University, accusing it of failing to protect Jewish students from harassment.

Hundreds gathered Sunday in Selma, Alabama to mark the 60th anniversary of “Bloody Sunday,” when a group of peaceful demonstrators marched for African Americans’ voting rights and were brutally beaten by police.As the group began marching the 50 miles (80 kilometers) to the southern state’s capital on March 7, 1965, state troopers blocked their path and attempted to turn them back.The police began beating the protesters when they refused to disperse, leaving at least 17 hospitalized and 40 others needing treatment, with the violence documented by accompanying journalists.”Bloody Sunday” catalyzed support for Black rights and led a few months later to the passage of the Voting Rights Act, a federal law prohibiting racial discrimination in voting.On Sunday, there was a festival atmosphere as crowds stopped to take photographs and pause in front of signs for the town of Selma and the Edmund Pettus Bridge.A contingent of bow-tied, white-gloved freemasons processed in a column across the bridge as part of the commemoration.”We’re here to remind people that there are human and civil rights that we are all entitled to. And that we don’t need to step back, we need to keep moving forward,” said Alicia Jordan, a 32-year-old bank employee.The event is known as “The Annual Pilgrimage to Selma,” and features a festival of arts and music ahead of the March to Restore Voting Rights across the Edmund Pettus Bridge.Hakeem Jeffries of New York, the top Democrat in the US House of Representatives, addressed the gathering, which was attended last year by then-vice president Kamala Harris.”We stand here in support of civil rights, stand here in support of voting rights, stand here in support of racial justice, social justice, economic justice,” Jeffries told the crowd.”They want us to step back, but we are here to make clear that we are going to fight back,” he said.Selma native Godfrey King told AFP ahead of the march that his “father was thrown in jail for the right to vote.” “My pastor at the time was one of the courageous eight, Dr. Frederick D. Reese. My uncles were thrown in jail, cattle prodded on Bloody Sunday. Voting is so important to me.”

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum told cheering crowds Sunday that she is confident that her country has headed off the threat of US tariffs for now.Last week, Sheinbaum’s US counterpart Donald Trump agreed to offer another month of temporary relief on threatened tariffs on imports from Mexico.During a huge rally in Mexico City of 350,000 people, according to local authorities, Sheinbaum declared herself “optimistic” about the future of the trade relationship.But she also warned Mexico “cannot give up our sovereignty.”Sheinbaum originally organized the event to announce the tariff and non-tariff trade measures with which Mexico would respond if Trump had carried through with his threat.But on Thursday, Trump once again put a pause on plans to impose a 25 percent tariff on imports into the United States from Mexico — which represent 80 percent of Mexican exports.Announcing the truce, Trump said he had done this out of respect for Sheinbaum and argued that the pair have a “very good” relationship.US financial markets had also reacted negatively to the tariff threat, and most economists agree that if implemented they would damage both countries’ economies. “We gather to congratulate ourselves because, in the relationship with the United States, with its government, dialogue and respect prevailed,” Sheinbaum said.In the Mexican capital’s Zocalo square, she added: “We cannot yield on our sovereignty, nor can our people be affected by decisions made by foreign governments.”In such a case, we will always act immediately,” she said. “I am convinced that the relationship must be good, respectful, and that dialogue will always prevail.”Trump’s justification for tariffs on US imports from Mexico and Canada — which are part of the USMCA trilateral free trade deal — has varied.- Recession threat? -He claims the US economy is losing out to unfair Mexican and Canadian competition, but also accused both of turning a blind eye to undocumented migrants and illegal drugs.In particular, Washington is incensed over shipments of fentanyl, a synthetic opioid that kills thousands of Americans each year.Citing US figures, Shenbaum told the crowd that — thanks to seizures made in Mexico — the amount of fentanyl into the United States across the countries’ 1,900-mile (3,100-kilometer) border decreased by half between October 2024 and January 2025. She said Mexico will continue to cooperate to tackle smuggling for “humanitarian reasons” and she hopes the United States remembers its promise to control the trafficking of arms to Mexican criminal organizations. While Mexico is an important supplier to the United States of products such as avocados and tequila, the biggest impact of a trade war would be on the manufacturing production chains of the three USMCA partners. Experts warn that if the tariffs as described by Trump were implemented then Mexico would fall into recession.Seeking to correct alleged trade imbalances, Trump has pledged to launch “reciprocal” tariffs on all countries beginning on April 2.Sheinbaum said she was “optimistic because on that day… they would not have to be applied” to Mexico, given most products are covered by the USMCA trade deal.