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Russian President Vladimir Putin held “constructive” talks with US envoy Steve Witkoff in Moscow on Wednesday, the Kremlin said, two days ahead of a US deadline for Russia to halt its Ukraine offensive or face fresh sanctions.US President Donald Trump, who had boasted he could end the conflict within 24 hours of taking office, has given Russia until Friday to make progress towards peace or face new penalties.But three rounds of Russia-Ukraine talks in Istanbul have failed to make headway on a ceasefire, with the two sides far apart in their demands.Russia has escalated drone and missile attacks against its pro-Western neighbour to a record high and accelerated its advance on the ground.”A quite useful and constructive conversation took place,” Putin’s aide Yuri Ushakov told journalists, including AFP, after the three hour meeting.Putin and Witkoff exchanged “signals” on their positions, Ushakov said, without elaborating.The Kremlin released video of Putin shaking hands with Witkoff at the start of the meeting.Ahead of the talks, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky urged Washington to increase its pressure on Moscow to agree to a ceasefire.- Sanctions threat -The White House has not outlined what action it would take against Russia, but Trump has previously threatened to impose “secondary tariffs” targeting Russia’s key trade partners, such as China and India.The move would aim to stifle Russian exports, but would risk significant international disruption.Trump said on Tuesday that he would await the outcome of the Moscow talks before ordering any economic sanctions.”We’re going to see what happens,” he told reporters. “We’ll make that determination at that time.”Without explicitly naming Trump, the Kremlin on Tuesday slammed “threats” to hike tariffs on Russia’s trading partners as “illegitimate”.Russia’s campaign against Ukraine since February 2022 has killed tens of thousands of people, destroyed swathes of the country and forced millions to flee their homes.Moscow has demanded that Ukraine cede more territory and renounce Western support if it wants the fighting to stop.Kyiv is calling for an immediate ceasefire, and Zelensky last week urged his allies to push for “regime change” in Moscow.”It is very important to strengthen all the levers in the arsenal of the United States, Europe, and the G7 so that a ceasefire truly comes into effect immediately,” Zelensky wrote on social media on Wednesday after Witkoff landed in the Russian capital.”Ukraine sees the political will, appreciates the efforts of our partners, of America, and of everyone who is helping,” he added.- Nuclear rhetoric -Trump has voiced increasing frustration with Putin in recent weeks over Russia’s unrelenting offensive.Russia fired a record number of long-range drones at Ukraine in July, AFP analysis of data from Kyiv’s air force showed.Its troops have also accelerated their advance on the ground and pushed into parts of Ukraine that Russia has not claimed to have annexed.Ukrainian emergency services reported on Wednesday that at least two people were killed and 12 others wounded in Russian shelling of a holiday camp in the southern Zaporizhzhia region.When reporters asked Trump on Monday what Witkoff’s message would be to Moscow, Trump replied: “Yeah, get a deal where people stop getting killed.”Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Monday that Russia believed the talks with Witkoff would be “important” and that it valued US efforts to end the conflict.The visit comes with Moscow-Washington tensions running high.Trump said he had ordered two nuclear submarines to be moved following an online row with former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev that were now “in the region”.It is unknown if Trump meant nuclear-armed or merely nuclear-powered submarines. He also did not elaborate on the deployment locations, which are kept secret by the US military.Russia, in its first comments on the deployment, urged “caution” on Monday.Moscow then said that it was ending a self-imposed moratorium on nuclear-capable intermediate-range missiles, suggesting that it could deploy such weapons in response to what it alleged were similar US deployments within striking distance of Russia.

Natural disasters caused $135 billion in economic losses globally in the first half of 2025, fuelled by the Los Angeles wildfires, reinsurer Swiss Re said Wednesday.Swiss Re, which serves as an insurer of insurance companies, said first half losses were up from the $123 billion in the first half of 2024.The Zurich-based reinsurance giant estimated that of this year’s first half losses, $80 billion had been insured — almost double the 10-year average, in 2025 prices.The Los Angeles blazes in January constitute the largest-ever insured wildfire loss event by far, reaching an estimated $40 billion, said Swiss Re.It said the “exceptional loss severity” of the fires was down to prolonged winds, a lack of rainfall and “some of the densest concentration of high-value single-family residential property in the US”.Swiss Re said losses from wildfires had risen sharply over the past decade due to rising temperatures, more frequent droughts and changing rainfall patterns — plus greater suburban sprawl and high-value asset concentration.”Most fire losses originate in the US and particularly in California, where expansion in hazardous regions has been high,” it said.Before 2015, wildfire-related insured losses made up around one percent of all natural catastrophe claims, but now account for seven percent.- Hurricane season approaching -Insured losses from severe thunderstorms amounted to $31 billion in the first half of 2025.The second half of the year is usually more costly for insurers due to damage during the North Atlantic hurricane season. If current loss trends continue, global insured losses from natural catastrophes in 2025 could exceed the Swiss Re Institute’s projections of $150 billion. “The strongest lever to increase the resilience and safety of communities is to double down on mitigation and adaptation. It’s here that everyone can help reduce losses before they occur,” said Swiss Re’s group chief economist Jerome Haegeli.”While mitigation and adaptation measures come at a price, our research shows that, for example, flood protection measures such as dykes, dams and flood gates are up to 10 times more cost-effective than rebuilding.”The March earthquake in Myanmar figured among the major natural disasters in the first six months of the year, with the tremors felt in neighbouring Thailand, India, and China.In Thailand alone, insured losses reached $1.5 billion.Overall, while natural disasters caused $135 billion in economic losses in the first half of 2025, man-made disasters — which include industrial accidents — caused another $8 billion in losses, of which $7 billion were insured losses.

Russian President Vladimir Putin met US envoy Steve Witkoff in Moscow on Wednesday, the Kremlin said, two days ahead of a deadline imposed by US President Donald Trump on Moscow to halt its Ukraine offensive or face fresh sanctions.Trump, who had boasted he could end the conflict within 24 hours of taking office, has given Russia until Friday to make progress towards peace or face new penalties.But three rounds of Russia-Ukraine peace talks in Istanbul have failed to make headway on a ceasefire, with the two sides far apart.Russia has escalated drone and missile attacks against its pro-Western neighbour to a record high and accelerated its advance on the ground.The Kremlin published video of Putin shaking hands with Witkoff in the Kremlin before the talks. But it provided no further details.Ahead of the meeting, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky urged Washington to up its pressure on Moscow to agree to a ceasefire.- Sanctions threat -The White House has not outlined specific actions it would take against Russia, but Trump has previously threatened to impose “secondary tariffs” targeting Russia’s key trade partners, such as China and India.The move would aim to stifle Russian exports, but would risk significant international disruption.Trump said Tuesday that he would await the outcome of the Moscow talks before moving ordering any economic retaliation. “We’re going to see what happens,” he told reporters. “We’ll make that determination at that time.”Without explicitly naming Trump, the Kremlin on Tuesday slammed “threats” to hike tariffs on Russia’s trading parters as “illegitimate”.Russia’s more than three-year campaign on Ukraine has killed tens of thousands of people, destroyed swathes of the country and forced millions to flee their homes.Moscow has demanded that Ukraine cede more territory and renounce Western support if it wants the fighting to stop.Kyiv is calling for an immediate ceasefire, and Zelensky last week urged his allies to push for “regime change” in Moscow.”It is very important to strengthen all the levers in the arsenal of the United States, Europe, and the G7 so that a ceasefire truly comes into effect immediately. Ukraine sees the political will, appreciates the efforts of our partners, of America, and of everyone who is helping,” Zelensky wrote on social media on Wednesday after Witkoff landed in the Russian capital.- Nuclear rhetoric -Trump has increasingly voiced frustration with Putin in recent weeks over Russia’s unrelenting offensive.Russia fired a record number of long-range drones at Ukraine in July, AFP analysis of data from Kyiv’s air force showed.Its troops have also accelerated their advance on the ground and pushed into parts of Ukraine that Russia has not claimed to have annexed.Ukrainian officials reported Wednesday at least two people were killed and 10 others wounded in Russian night shelling of a holiday camp in the southern Zaporizhzhia region.When reporters asked Trump on Monday what Witkoff’s message would be to Moscow, and if there was anything Russia could do to avoid sanctions, Trump replied: “Yeah, get a deal where people stop getting killed.”Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Monday it considered the talks with Witkoff to be “important, substantial and helpful” and valued US efforts to end the conflict.The visit comes with tensions running high between Moscow and Washington.Trump said he had deployed two nuclear submarines following an online row with former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev were now “in the region.”Trump has not said whether he meant nuclear-powered or nuclear-armed submarines. He also did not elaborate on the exact deployment locations, which are kept secret by the US military.Russia, in its first comments on the deployment, urged “caution” Monday.Moscow then said it was ending a self-imposed moratorium on nuclear-capable intermediate-range missiles, suggesting it could deploy such weapons in response to what it alleged were similar US deployments within striking distance of Russia.

US envoy Steve Witkoff arrived in Moscow on Wednesday, state media reported, where he will meet with Russian leadership as President Donald Trump’s deadline to impose fresh sanctions over Russia’s offensive on Ukraine looms.Trump has given Russia until Friday to halt its military campaign or face new penalties. Ukrainian officials meanwhile reported Wednesday at least two people were killed and 10 others wounded overnight in Russian shelling of the Zaporizhzhia region.The White House has not outlined specific actions it plans to take on Friday, but Trump has previously threatened to impose “secondary tariffs” targeting Russia’s remaining trade partners, such as China and India.The move would aim to stifle Russian exports, but would risk significant international disruption.Trump said Tuesday that he would await the outcome of the Moscow talks before moving forward with any economic retaliation. “We’re going to see what happens,” he told reporters. “We’ll make that determination at that time.”After arriving in Moscow, Witkoff was met by presidential special representative Kirill Dmitriev, Russian state news agency TASS said.An American source did not specify if the meetings will include Russian President Vladimir Putin, whom Witkoff has met with several times previously.The Kremlin said earlier this week it did not “exclude” a meeting with Putin would take place.Despite pressure from Washington, Russia has continued its campaign against its pro-Western neighbour.Three rounds of peace talks in Istanbul have failed to make headway on a possible ceasefire, with the two sides appearing as far apart as ever.Moscow has demanded that Ukraine cede more territory and renounce Western support.Kyiv is calling for an immediate ceasefire, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky last week urged his allies to push for “regime change” in Moscow.- Nuclear rhetoric -Trump has increasingly voiced frustration with Putin in recent weeks over Russia’s unrelenting offensive.Russia fired a record number of long-range drones at Ukraine in July, AFP analysis of data from Kyiv’s air force showed.Its troops have also accelerated their advance on the ground and pushed into parts of Ukraine that Russia has not claimed to have annexed.When reporters asked Trump on Monday what Witkoff’s message would be to Moscow, and if there was anything Russia could do to avoid the sanctions, Trump replied: “Yeah, get a deal where people stop getting killed.”Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Monday it considered the talks with Witkoff to be “important, substantial and helpful” and valued US efforts to end the conflict.Putin, who has consistently rejected calls for a ceasefire, said last week that he wants peace but that his demands for ending the nearly three-and-a-half-year offensive were unchanged.Russia has frequently called on Ukraine to effectively cede control of four regions Moscow claims to have annexed, a demand Kyiv has called unacceptable.Putin also wants Ukraine to drop its ambitions to join NATO.The visit comes after Trump said that two nuclear submarines he deployed following an online row with former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev were now “in the region.”Trump has not said whether he meant nuclear-powered or nuclear-armed submarines. He also did not elaborate on the exact deployment locations, which are kept secret by the US military.Russia, in its first comments on the deployment, urged “caution” Monday.”Russia is very attentive to the topic of nuclear non-proliferation. And we believe that everyone should be very, very cautious with nuclear rhetoric,” the Kremlin’s Peskov said.

US tariffs on many Brazilian products surged Wednesday, as President Donald Trump moved ahead with a pressure campaign against the trial of his right-wing ally Jair Bolsonaro.Trump’s latest salvo brings duties on various Brazilian goods from 10 percent to 50 percent, although broad exemptions — including for orange juice and civil aircraft — are expected to soften the blow.Brazil’s vice president Geraldo Alckmin previously told media that the new tariff would apply to just around 36 percent of Brazil’s exports to the United States. But analysts said it still hits key goods like coffee, beef, and sugar.In an executive order announcing the tariffs last week, the Trump administration lashed out at Brazilian officials for “unjustified criminal charges” against their country’s former president Bolsonaro, who is accused of planning a coup.Bolsonaro is on trial for allegedly plotting to hold onto power after losing the 2022 elections to President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Trump’s order, which also criticized Brazil’s digital regulation, charged that the Brazilian government’s recent policies and actions threatened the US economy, national security, and foreign policy.But analysts have flagged major exclusions in the tariff hike.Valentina Sader, an expert on Brazil at the Atlantic Council, noted that there are nearly 700 exemptions.”The tariffs are not good, but they expected worse,” Sader said in a recent note.She predicts the Brazilian economy likely “will withstand the duties.””The government seems to be looking to subsidize some of the most impacted sectors, but we might see Brazil looking to diversify its export markets,” she told AFP.The tariff hike on Brazilian goods comes a day before a separate wave of higher US duties are set to take effect on dozens of economies ranging from the European Union to Taiwan — as Trump moves to reshape global trade.Analysts at Pantheon Macroeconomics estimate that these incoming tariff increases are expected to boost the average effective tariff rate for US imports to nearly 20 percent.This marks the highest level since at least the 1930s, according to the Budget Lab at Yale University.- ‘Off the table’ -But US tensions with Brazil are not likely to dissipate soon, with a Brazilian judge placing Bolsonaro under house arrest on Monday for breaking a social media ban.While the 70-year-old is barred from social media during legal proceedings — with third parties also not allowed to share his public remarks — his allies defied the order on Sunday.Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes — who is presiding over Bolsonaro’s trial — reacted furiously. Washington recently imposed sanctions on Moraes as well.Trump’s pressure campaign has angered many Brazilians but endeared him to Bolsonaro’s conservative base.”Brazilians have not taken well to what they perceive to be a clear intervention on domestic affairs and an independent judiciary,” Sader of the Atlantic Council said.”And President Lula has been firm that the government is open to dialogue and negotiations, but not to foreign interference on Brazilian affairs,” she added.”Brazilian sovereignty is off the table,” she said.

Donald Trump’s sudden concern about starving Palestinians was a major shift for the US president, who had previously ignored the endless cries for help from aid groups. So what changed?In his words, it was images of emaciated children in Gaza that Trump saw on television — his main window into the world that has long shaped his political and diplomatic decision-making.Trump made clear his affection for the small screen in late July when asked if he agreed with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a major US ally, that there was no famine in Gaza.”Based on television, I would say not particularly, because those children look very hungry,” said Trump, a former reality TV star.”That’s real starvation stuff. I see it, and you can’t fake that.”Since then, the 79-year-old has repeated that aid must be brought to people living in the war-ravaged Palestinian territory, though he has stopped of any major diplomatic moves.”Trump has a reputation for not reading anything, including the briefing papers that his aides prepare for him, and for always believing that he knows better than his staff or anyone else does,” said Dan Kennedy, a journalist professor at Northeastern University.”So it’s not surprising that he would be affected by images on television, especially since he is known to spend a lot of time watching TV.”- ‘I watch the shows’ -Trump has attended 22 intelligence briefings since taking office in January, according to an AFP tally, despite several reports having revealed that he lacks interest in written reports. However, his love for television is well-documented — even when it comes to major decisions.In 2015, before he first entered the White House, the billionaire told a journalist asking how he educates himself on military strategy: “Well, I watch the shows.”And a New York Times report recounted how Trump spent several hours a day in his first term glued to the television, mainly watching Fox News — his favorite channel — but also CNN, NBC and ABC news channels.His second term has been little changed, despite Trump leading an election campaign that deployed social media and podcasts. “Trump is a product of his generation,” Kennedy said. “He’s not sitting around looking at TikTok.”- ‘Great television’ -The Republican, who hosted 14 seasons of “The Apprentice” television series, knows better than most how images can be weaponized for political point-scoring.He was gleeful after his shocking clash with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House in February, which saw the pair rowing in front of the world’s press. “This is going to be great television,” Trump said. And in May he gave a similar public dressing down to South African leader Cyril Ramaphosa when he sat in the Oval Office for what turned into a diplomatic ambush. Trump hijacked the meeting by playing a video montage — one littered with inaccuracies — that purported to prove claims of a “genocide” against white farmers in South Africa. 

Japan marked 80 years since the atomic bombing of Hiroshima on Wednesday with a ceremony reminding the world of the horrors unleashed, as sabre-rattling between the United States and Russia keeps the nuclear “Doomsday Clock” close to midnight.A silent prayer was held at 8:15 am (2315 GMT), the moment when US aircraft Enola Gay dropped “Little Boy” over the western Japanese city on August 6, 1945.On a sweltering morning, hundreds of black-clad officials, students and survivors laid flowers at the memorial cenotaph, with the ruins of a domed building in the background, a stark reminder of the horrors that unfolded. In a speech, Hiroshima mayor Kazumi Matsui warned of “an accelerating trend toward military buildup around the world”, against the backdrop of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the chaos in the Middle East.”These developments flagrantly disregard the lessons the international community should have learned from the tragedies of history,” he said. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said it was Japan’s mission “to take the lead… toward a world without nuclear weapons”.The final death toll of the Hiroshima attack would hit around 140,000 people, killed not just by the colossal blast and the ball of fire, but also later by the radiation.Three days after “Little Boy”, on August 9, another atomic bomb killed 74,000 people in Nagasaki. Imperial Japan surrendered on August 15, bringing an end to World War II.Today, Hiroshima is a thriving metropolis of 1.2 million but the attacks live on in the memories of many. On the eve of the ceremony, people began lining up to pay their respects to the victims in front of the cenotaph.Before dawn on Wednesday, families who lost loved ones in the attack also came to pray.Yoshie Yokoyama, 96, who arrived in a wheelchair with her grandson, told reporters that her parents and grandparents were bomb victims. “My grandfather died soon after the bombing, while my father and mother both died after developing cancer. My parents-in-law also died, so my husband couldn’t see them again when he came back from battlefields after the war.”People are still suffering,” she added.Wednesday’s ceremony was set to include a record of around 120 countries and regions including, for the first time, Taiwanese and Palestinian representatives. The United States — which has never formally apologised for the bombings — was represented by its ambassador to Japan. Russia and China were absent.Nihon Hidankyo, the grassroots organisation that last year won the Nobel Peace Prize, is representing the dwindling number of survivors, known as hibakusha. As of March, there were 99,130 hibakusha, according to the Japanese health ministry, with the average age of 86.”I want foreign envoys to visit the peace memorial museum and understand what happened,” the group’s co-chair Toshiyuki Mimaki told local media ahead of the commemorations.Pope Leo XIV said in a statement that “in our time of mounting global tensions and conflicts”, Hiroshima and Nagasaki remained “living reminders of the profound horrors wrought by nuclear weapons”.United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned that “the very weapons that brought such devastation to Hiroshima and Nagasaki are once again being treated as tools of coercion”.- Younger generation -The attacks remain the only time atomic bombs have been used in wartime.Kunihiko Sakuma, 80, who survived the blasts as a baby, told AFP he was hopeful that there could eventually be a nuclear-free world.”The younger generation is working hard for that end,” he said ahead of the ceremony.But in January, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists’ “Doomsday Clock” shifted to 89 seconds to midnight, the closest in its 78-year history.The clock symbolising humanity’s distance from destruction was last moved to 90 seconds to midnight over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.Russia and the United States account for around 90 percent of the world’s over 12,000 warheads, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).SIPRI warned in June that “a dangerous new nuclear arms race is emerging at a time when arms control regimes are severely weakened,” with nearly all of the nine nuclear-armed states modernising their arsenals.Earlier this month, US President Donald Trump said that he had ordered the deployment of two nuclear submarines following an online spat with former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev.

Donald Trump is pulling hard on the levers of power to strengthen Republicans through redistricting in Texas and other states — the latest offensive in escalating moves by both sides to shape the battlefield of US democracy for the midterm elections.The president’s efforts have lit a fuse in multiple states, triggering a high-stakes tussle over election law that could upend what is expected to be a fierce fight for control of the House of Representatives in 2026.Partisan redistricting — or gerrymandering — operates under a principle that has become known as “packing and cracking.”Officials redrawing the districts in any given state “pack” opposition voters together so that they win big in a tiny number of districts. Then they “crack” the rest more thinly across the remaining districts to ensure losses there.It isn’t inherently illegal at the federal level unless electoral districts are redrawn along racial lines and both parties have been guilty of excessive manipulation to maximize their vote.”I’d be happy to outlaw gerrymandering,” Democratic strategist Mike Nellis, a former top aide to 2024 presidential candidate Kamala Harris, posted on X.”I think it’s ridiculous for politicians to draw their own maps, but I’m not for unilateral disarmament when Republicans are trying to rig the midterms.”Redistricting typically happens once a decade after the census, but lawmakers have increasingly been inclined to break with that tradition.While Trump coasted to victory in 2024, his success wasn’t contagious, and his party was left clinging to the House by a threadbare 219–212 margin. Historically, the party in the White House loses ground in midterms, and Trump’s team knows the clock is ticking. To tighten his grip, the president has leaned on Texas to redraw its congressional map to create five new Republican-friendly seats.  But Trump and his party are not stopping with the Lone Star State, according to US media.Republicans in Missouri and Ohio are planning their own redistricting to boost their representation in Washington, while Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has made noises about addressing the “raw deal” conservatives got in the last Sunshine State redistricting round.- Democratic counteroffensives -Meanwhile, Democratic governors are preparing their own counteroffensives.In California, Gavin Newsom has floated a potential special election to redraw the map — a dramatic reversal in a state where redistricting power has belonged to an independent commission since the 2010s. In Illinois, JB Pritzker recently hosted a delegation of Texas Democrats to talk strategy. And in New York, Kathy Hochul hinted at a redistricting push of her own, telling a Buffalo crowd, “If other states are violating the rules, I’m going to look at it closely.”Gerrymandering is hardly a new phenomenon in US elections, but the latest escalation has sparked fears of what Hochul cast as a nationwide partisan “war.”Opponents say gerrymandering entrenches politicians, pushes candidates toward ideological extremes and erodes public trust in the democratic process.It is also a risky business, and even the best-laid maps can collapse under the shifting ground of demographic changes and political overreach that tends to spark a legal backlash. The term “gerrymandering” dates back to 1812, when Massachusetts Governor Elbridge Gerry approved a salamander-shaped district that sparked the term.As the salamander digs in for 21st century elections, the consequences are more far-reaching.According to the Cook Political Report, just one in 16 House seats were competitive in 2024 — 12 held by Democrats and 15 held by Republicans, out of a total of 435.Democrats believe Trump’s latest push may have crossed a legal line by coordinating with local Texas officials, citing the president’s July 15 comment that with “just a simple redrawing, we pick up five seats.” They also point to reports that senior Trump aides met with Texas Republicans to finalize plans.But Daron Shaw, a politics professor at the University of Texas, said it was “curious” to blame Trump for the problem, given that deeply Democratic California is the country’s most “egregious gerrymander.” Liberal Illinois, Maryland and Massachusetts were also at fault, he told AFP.”It’s especially kind of rich coming from people in California and Illinois that have gerrymander significantly more egregious than exists in Texas,” he added.

As the United States ramps up tariffs on major trading partners globally, President Donald Trump is also disrupting strategies that could be used — by Chinese companies or others — to circumvent them.Goods deemed to be “transshipped,” or sent through a third country with lower export levies, will face an additional 40-percent duty under an incoming wave of Trump tariffs Thursday.The latest tranche of “reciprocal” tariff hikes, taking aim at what Washington deems unfair trade practices, impacts dozens of economies from Taiwan to India.The transshipment rule does not name countries, but is expected to impact China significantly given its position as a manufacturing powerhouse.Washington likely wants to develop supply chains that are less reliant on China, analysts say, as tensions simmer between the world’s two biggest economies and the US sounds the alarm on Beijing’s excess industrial capacity.But “it’s a little more about the short-term effect of strengthening the tariff regime than it is about a decoupling strategy,” said Josh Lipsky, chair of international economics at the Atlantic Council.”The point is to make countries worried about it and then have them err on the side of not doing it, because they know that Trump could then jack up the tariff rates higher again,” he added, referring to tariff evasion.The possibility of a sharply higher duty is a “perpetual stick in the negotiations” with countries, said Richard Stern, a tax and budget expert at the conservative Heritage Foundation.He told AFP that expanding penalties across the globe takes the focus away from Beijing alone.- Alternative supplies -Experts have noted that Vietnam was the biggest winner from supply chain diversions from China since the first Trump tariffs around 2018, when Washington and Beijing engaged in a trade war.And Brookings Institution senior fellow Robin Brooks pointed to signs this year of significant transshipments of Chinese goods.He noted in a June report that Chinese exports to certain Southeast Asian countries started surging “anomalously” in early 2025 as Trump threatened widespread levies.While it is unclear if all these products end up in the United States, Brooks cast doubt on the likelihood that domestic demand in countries like Thailand and Vietnam rocketed right when Trump imposed duties.”One purpose of the transshipment provisions is to force the development of supply chains that exclude Chinese inputs,” said William Reinsch, senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.”The other purpose is to push back on Chinese overcapacity and force them to eat their own surpluses,” he added.But Washington’s success in the latter goal depends on its ability to get other countries on board.”The transshipment penalties are designed to encourage that,” Reinsch said.Lipsky added: “The strategy that worked in the first Trump term, to try to offshore some Chinese manufacturing to other countries like Vietnam and Mexico, is going to be a much more difficult strategy to execute now.”- China response? -Lipsky noted that Beijing could see the transshipment clause as one targeting China on trade, “because it is.””The question is, how China takes that in the broader context of what had been a thawing relationship between the US and China over the past two months,” he added.While both countries temporarily lowered triple-digit tariffs on each other’s exports, that truce expires August 12.The countries are in talks to potentially extend the de-escalation, although the final decision lies with Trump.It will be tough to draw a line defining product origins, analysts say.Customs fraud has been illegal for some time, but it remains unclear how Washington will view materials from China or elsewhere that have been significantly transformed.The burden lies with customs authorities to identify transshipment and assess the increased duties.”That will be difficult, particularly in countries that have close relations with China and no particular incentive to help US Customs and Border Protection,” Reinsch added.

Music mogul Sean “Diddy” Combs, who is to be sentenced in October for his conviction on prostitution-related charges, is seeking a pardon from President Donald Trump, one of his lawyers said Tuesday.”It’s my understanding that we’ve reached out and had conversations in reference to a pardon,” Nicole Westmoreland told CNN in an interview.Trump has indicated, however, that he is unlikely to grant a pardon to the 55-year-old Combs.”I was very friendly with him. I got along with him great and he seemed like a nice guy,” Trump said in an interview on Friday with Newsmax. “I didn’t know him well, but when I ran for office, he was very hostile.”Asked if that meant he was not inclined to pardon Combs, Trump said: “I would say so, yeah.”A New York jury found Combs guilty last month of two counts of transportation to engage in prostitution, each of which carries a maximum sentence of 10 years in prison. He was acquitted of racketeering and sex trafficking charges after a marathon trial in which he was accused of harrowing abuse.Sentencing has been set for October 3.