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IMF raises global growth outlook and flags rising economic divergence

Global growth is expected to increase slightly this year while remaining stuck below its pre-pandemic average, the IMF said Friday, flagging the growing economic divide between the United States and European countries.In an update to its flagship World Economic Outlook report, the International Monetary Fund said it expects global growth to hit 3.3 percent this year, up 0.1 percentage point from its previous forecast in October, and to remain at 3.3 percent in 2026.”Growth is steady,” IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told AFP in an interview, adding that it remained below the average global growth rate in the first two decades of the 21st century of 3.7 percent. The IMF expects the global inflation rate to continue decelerating, reaching 4.2 percent this year and 3.5 percent in 2026, with prices cooling faster in advanced economies than in emerging markets. – Growing divergence -“Among advanced economies, the interesting development here is the strength and resilience and growth of the US economy,” Gourinchas said, pointing to the IMF’s decision to hike its outlook for US growth to 2.7 percent in 2025 and to 2.1 percent in 2026.”The labor market has been strong, there is strong demand, private demand is robust, there is good confidence,” he said.One of the risks to the IMF’s forecasts is policy uncertainty in the United States, where Donald Trump is preparing to return to the White House. The IMF did not include the Republican president-elect’s policy proposals in its forecasts and instead based its projections on existing US policies.”The bottom line is, when we look at the risk for the US, we see an upside risk on inflation,” he said. The economic picture in the United States stands in stark contrast to the Euro area, where a sharp downgrade for Germany has dampened expectations for a rebound in growth. The IMF now forecasts Euro area growth to increase slightly to 1.0 percent this year, and 1.4 percent in 2026, below its October forecasts.”Some of the divergence is structural,” Gourinchas told reporters on Friday, noting the “persistently stronger” productivity growth in the United States than in Europe, especially in the technology sector. This, he added, was “linked to a favorable business environment and deeper capital markets.” The Fund left its outlook for growth in Japan unchanged this year and next, and slightly increased its outlook for the United Kingdom in 2025. In Russia, which is affected by the ongoing and costly war in Ukraine, the IMF expects growth to slow sharply from 3.8 percent in 2024 to 1.4 percent this year, and to 1.2 percent in 2026. – ‘Rebalancing’ in emerging markets -The IMF expects China’s growth rate to continue cooling this year to 4.6 percent, up 0.1 percentage point from the October forecast, before easing to 4.5 percent next year. The slight upgrade was due to the Chinese government’s recently announced package of fiscal support to help prop up the slowing economy, which is struggling with a property market slump and uncertainty about trade policy once Donald Trump takes office next week.The slowdown in growth in the world’s second-largest economy is leading to something of a “rebalancing” among emerging markets, Gourinchas said, with countries including India — which the IMF expects to grow by 6.5 percent this year and next — playing a more important role.Growth in the Middle East and Central Asia is expected to pick up by less than previously forecast due largely to the effect of oil production cuts by the OPEC+ group of oil-producing nations, which includes Saudi Arabia.Economic activity is expected to rise more quickly in Latin America, the IMF said, adding that it also expected growth in sub-Saharan Africa to pick up this year. 

France launches probe into AI Brad Pitt scam

Authorities in France’s La Reunion have launched a probe to identify fraudsters who scammed a woman out of 830,000 euros by making her believe she had an online relationship with Brad Pitt.The police are trying to locate the accounts that received the transfers from the French woman, who has lodged a complaint in the French Indian Ocean island of La Reunion, a police source said on Friday.The woman, named only as Anne, told the TF1 channel that she had believed she was in a romantic relationship with the Hollywood heartthrob, leading her to divorce her husband and transfer 830,000 euros ($850,000).The scammers used fake social media and WhatsApp accounts, as well as AI image-creating technology to send Anne what appeared to be selfies and messages from Pitt.Anne, a 53-year-old interior decorator, spent a year and half believing she was communicating with Pitt and only realised she had been scammed when news emerged of Pitt’s real-life relationship with girlfriend Ines de Ramon.Since last autumn Anne has been in touch with Marwan Ouarab, the founder of the FindmyScammer.com website, in a bid to find the fraudsters.According to French daily Le Parisien, which quoted Ouarab, the scammers — three men in their 20s — are located in Nigeria.”We would love for Interpol to take up the case,” the newspaper quoted him as saying.The woman has faced a wave of online harassment and mockery after the interview was broadcast, leading the programme to be withdrawn.A representative for Pitt, 61, has warned fans to be wary of impersonation scams.”It’s awful that scammers take advantage of fans’ strong connection with celebrities,” a spokesperson for the “Fight Club” actor told US outlet Entertainment Weekly this week.

US president-elect Trump holds phone talks with Chinese leader Xi

Chinese President Xi Jinping held phone talks Friday with US president-elect Donald Trump, Chinese state media reported.CCTV said the phone call happened “on the evening of January 17”, without providing any immediate further details.Earlier on Friday, China announced Xi would send Vice President Han Zheng to attend Trump’s inauguration next week.Trump waged a bitter trade war with China during his first term, slapping onerous tariffs on imports from the world’s second-largest economy.He has threatened to impose more severe measures this time around, accusing Beijing of unfair trade practices and contributing to a devastating fentanyl crisis in the United States.On Thursday, Beijing slammed comments by Marco Rubio, Trump’s nominee for secretary of state, as “unwarranted attacks” after the senator — in his confirmation hearing — called China “the most… dangerous near-peer adversary” the US had ever faced.”The US side must establish a correct understanding of China, cease unwarranted attacks and smear campaigns against China,” foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun told a regular briefing.In December, Xi said China was willing to engage in dialogue and “expand cooperation” with the US, but warned that a trade war would have “no winners”.

Residents of Canada, US border towns fear Trump creating divisions

A shared library, sports fields and fire stations. The American border town of Derby Line and its Canadian twin Stanstead have been living in harmony for more than two centuries, but their bonds are being tested by US President-elect Donald Trump.”There is uncertainty. Are we going to maintain our good relations?” says Jody Stone, the mayor of Stanstead, Quebec.A black line that runs across the floor of the Haskell Library, which also serves as a concert hall, marks the US-Canada border.The front door is on the American side, but Canadians don’t need to go through a customs checkpoint to gain access. Inside, Americans and Canadians regularly cross paths as they browse the library stacks.”We have very, very strong ties,” says Sylvie Boudreau, president of the library’s board of trustees who lives in Stanstead, adding that Trump taking office on January 20 could bring uncertainty to theSince they were founded in the late 18th century, the twin towns have relied on each other.The Canadian town of 3,000 residents would get help from Derby Line’s fire department in emergencies, and similarly would offer help to its American neighbors when needed. They also share water and sewage, an ice rink and basketball courts, and American educators teach Canadian schoolchildren.But everyone has been on edge since Trump’s election win in November, and even more so after his comments about tightening security at the border to stop illicit drugs and migrants from crossing into the United States, and slapping punishing tariffs on Canadian imports.- ‘I like Canada’ -The latter is a real concern for businesses in the region, particularly quarries and companies that sell granite, as well as finished countertops and tombstones to the United States.Mayor Stone, who owns a distribution company, is preparing for the possibility of Canadian retaliatory duties on American imports.”I’m preparing myself, I’m making sure to buy as much as possible in Canada because if there’s ever a problem with the Americans, I have to be able to supply my customers in Quebec,” he explains.On the US side of the border, Trump’s remarks are also disconcerting to Americans, who consider the ties forged since the two towns’ founding to be more important than politics.Trump’s trolling of Canada, including calling it America’s 51st state, does not make the United States a good neighbor, says Derby Line resident Rachel McDowell.”I like Canada. I like going there. I don’t have any problems with Canada,” says McDowell, 27, adding that she fears Trump’s polarizing rhetoric will only create divisions.Canadian Guy Lemay, a 71-year-old retired police officer, is in favor of strengthening the border as requested by the American president-elect. Ottawa has announced a Can$1.3 billion (US$900 million) plan to beef up patrols with helicopters and drones, and deploy more border agents.But Lemay, who frequently goes to the United States to fill up with gasoline since it is cheaper there, says he is against imposing tariffs.”It’s going to be rough,” he says. “And it’s the citizens who are going to pay, on both sides.”

Apple sidelines AI news summaries due to errors

Apple pushed out a software update on Thursday which disabled news headlines and summaries generated using artificial intelligence that were lambasted for getting facts wrong.The move by the tech titan comes as it enhances its latest lineup of devices with “Apple Intelligence” in a market keen for assurance that the iPhone maker is a contender in the AI race.Apple’s decision to temporarily disable the recently launched AI feature comes after the BBC and other news organizations complained that users were getting mistake-riddled or outright wrong headlines or news summary alerts.Apple deployed the update to developers working with a beta version of its software, sidelining the AI feature for news headlines.The tech giant plans to restore the feature when it is working properly and eventually roll it out to all users.Apple in June of last year unveiled new iPhones built with generative AI as it seeks to boost sales and show it is keeping up in the technological arms race.The company has a lot riding on the new iPhone 16 and hopes that customers are attracted to buy the latest models by its new AI powers.”We are thrilled to introduce the first iPhones designed from the ground up for Apple Intelligence and its breakthrough capabilities,” Apple chief executive Tim Cook said at an event at the iPhone-maker’s Silicon Valley headquarters.”Apple Intelligence” is a new suite of software features for all devices that was announced at the company’s annual developers conference, where it also announced a partnership with ChatGPT-maker OpenAI.In the short-term, the new powers include AI-infused image editing, translation, and small, creative touches in messaging, but not more ambitious breakthroughs promised by other AI players, such as OpenAI or Google.The features are similar to tools recently released by Meta, Microsoft and Google, which can produce well-crafted content simply by querying in everyday language.Google last year released AI-infused Pixel 9 smartphones, its challenge to the iPhone.Pixel phones account for a tiny sliver of the global smartphone market dominated by Samsung and Apple, but Google argued its new line is a chance to answer what — after all the hype — AI can actually do for customers.Samsung has also showcased AI across its line, and is expected to unveil a new flagship Galaxy smartphone at an event next week in Silicon Valley.

Biden warns of threats to ‘fragile’ democracy

President Joe Biden warned Thursday against the dangerous erosion of the fundamental guardrails protecting an increasingly “fragile” American democracy.A day after urging Americans to stand firm against an “oligarchy” forming under Donald Trump, Biden highlighted the specific threat posed by a cowed Supreme Court and Congress unable to keep an autocratic presidency in check.Biden, in a recorded interview with MSNBC — his last before leaving office on Monday — also revealed details of his conversations with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and discussed the situation in Ukraine.”I really am concerned about how fragile democracy is,” Biden said. “I really think we’re in an inflection point in history here where, unrelated to any particular leader, things are going to change drastically.””So I guess what I’m worried about is that the thing that keeps it on track are the guardrails, that there’s a Supreme Court that’s independent,” Biden said, and a Congress where you “speak your mind but you’re held accountable to basic standards.”He said the president may be the “top dog” but “you can’t dictate everything.”Biden said he did not have any recent discussions with Trump about the negotiations that led to the Gaza ceasefire deal, for which the incoming president has sought to take credit.As for Netanyahu, Biden said he still considers him a “friend” although “we don’t agree on a whole lot lately.”Biden recounted one of his early conversations with Netanyahu after the October 7, 2023 attack on Israel by Hamas.”I told them we were going to help, but Bibi, I said, you can’t be carpet-bombing in these communities.”And he said to me: ‘Well you did it… You carpet-bombed Berlin. You dropped a nuclear weapon. You killed thousands of people because you had to in order to win a war,'” Biden recounted.Biden said he also kept reminding Netanyahu “that he has to find a way to accomodate the legitimate concerns of a large group of people called Palestinians who have no place to live independently.”Touching on the conflict in Ukraine, Biden said Russia has suffered more than 670,000 wounded or dead since the invasion.”They’re losing big time too,” he said. “It doesn’t mean they’re going to lose everything but it means they’re not going to be able to have the kind of win (Russian leader Vladimir Putin) thought,” he said.- ‘Too much time on the policy’ -Putin wants to “reestablish the old Warsaw Pact,” Biden said. “I can’t let that happen.”Biden also said he was not concerned about his safety when he made his visit to Ukraine.The Secret Service were “very unhappy,” he said, “but I didn’t think that Putin would dare to take out an American president.”Biden, who dropped his reelection bid after a disastrous debate performance against Trump, also reflected briefly on his political failings.”Ironically, I almost spent too much time on the policy and not enough time on the politics,” he said.The hour-long sit-down interview with MSNBC was one of just a handful Biden gave to the media during his four years as president.He also rarely held full-fledged news conferences, and his White House had an occasionally tense relationship with the press, which it accused of unfairly focusing on the 82-year-old president’s age and cognitive abilities.

Trump says ceasefire ‘would’ve never happened’ without his team

US President-elect Donald Trump said Thursday the ceasefire and hostage release agreement between Israel and Hamas would have never been reached without pressure from him and his incoming administration. The agreement, which would exchange Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners, awaits approval by Israel’s security cabinet before taking effect, after which the terms of a permanent end to the war would be negotiated.Four days away from being inaugurated for a second term, Trump told the Dan Bongino Show that negotiations would have never finalized without pressure from his team, including Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff.”If we weren’t involved in this deal, the deal would’ve never happened,” Trump said.”We changed the course of it, and we changed it fast, and frankly, it better be done before I take the oath of office,” he added. Israel’s security cabinet was set to meet Friday to discuss the terms of the ceasefire, which would go into effect Sunday at the earliest, just before Trump’s presidential inauguration on Monday.Trump also blasted outgoing President Joe Biden for taking credit for the ceasefire agreement, calling him “ungracious” and saying: “He didn’t do anything! If I didn’t do this, if we didn’t get involved, the hostages would never be out.” Biden had proposed a ceasefire agreement last May with terms that mirrored the deal reached this week.The ceasefire agreement under discussion proposes an initial 42-day ceasefire that would see the release of 33 hostages and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza’s populations centers.The second phase of the agreement could bring a “peramanent end to the war,” Biden said.In an interview with MSNBC on Thursday, Biden said that he had not had any recent discussions with Trump about the ceasefire negotiations.

SpaceX catches Starship booster again, but upper stage explodes

Hours after Jeff Bezos’s Blue Origin nailed its first-ever orbital mission, SpaceX seized back the spotlight on Thursday as its latest test of Starship, its gargantuan next-generation megarocket, ended with the upper stage dramatically disintegrating over the Atlantic. In terms of sheer excitement, Elon Musk’s company didn’t disappoint, underscoring its technical prowess by catching the first stage booster in the “chopstick” arms of its launch tower for a second time. But the triumph was short-lived when teams lost contact with the upper stage vehicle. SpaceX later confirmed it had undergone “rapid unscheduled disassembly,” the company’s euphemism for an explosion.A taller, improved version of the biggest and most powerful launch vehicle ever built blasted off from the company’s Starbase in Boca Chica, Texas, at 4:37 pm (2237 GMT) for its seventh test.The gleaming prototype rocket is key to Musk’s ambitions of colonizing Mars, while NASA hopes to use a modified version as a human lunar lander.Around seven minutes after liftoff, the Super Heavy booster decelerated from supersonic speeds — generating sonic booms — before descending gracefully into the launch tower’s waiting arms, prompting an eruption of applause from ground control teams.The maneuver was first successfully executed in October, but not November, when Super Heavy made a controlled splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico instead.Soon after the latest booster catch, however, announcers on a live webcast confirmed the upper stage vehicle had been lost following a propulsion anomaly.The FlightAware tracker showed several planes in the Atlantic altering course near the Turks and Caicos Islands, while users on X shared dramatic footage purportedly capturing the spaceship breaking apart in a fiery cascade during atmospheric re-entry.”Success is uncertain, but entertainment is guaranteed!” Musk wrote on X, sharing one of the clips. He added the cause of the explosion appeared to be an “oxygen/fuel leak” and that the company would take corrective steps.A Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) spokesperson said the agency “briefly slowed and diverted aircraft around the area where space vehicle debris was falling.” – Well wishes -Ahead of the SpaceX launch, Blue Origin’s massive New Glenn rocket reached orbital space for the first time, marking a potential turning point in the commercial space race.SpaceX has long dominated orbital launches with its Falcon 9 rocket, securing contracts from private companies, the Pentagon and NASA. In contrast, Blue Origin had been limited to short hop suborbital flights with its smaller New Shepard rocket — but could now look to erode SpaceX’s market share.Although the two tech titans have had a contentious past, Musk congratulated Bezos “on reaching orbit on the first attempt,” and Bezos returned the goodwill a few hours later. “Good luck today @elonmusk and the whole spacex team!!” the Amazon founder wrote on X.NASA’s outgoing chief Bill Nelson meanwhile offered his congratulations to SpaceX for the booster catch, adding: “Spaceflight is not easy.”For this flight, SpaceX announced it had made numerous upgrades, and increased Starship’s size by a few feet to 403 feet (123 meters) tall. New Glenn stands 320 feet (98 meters) tall.While its Falcon rockets remain steadfast workhorses, SpaceX has made clear it sees Starship as its future.The first three test flights ended in dramatic explosions, resulting in the loss of vehicles. However, SpaceX has rapidly iterated on its design, reflecting its “fail fast, learn fast” philosophy.Musk is now aiming to drastically ramp up the frequency of tests, requesting permission from the FAA to carry out 25 in 2025, compared to just four in 2024.The agency is holding public meetings on potential environmental and regulatory concerns, amid accusations that SpaceX has harmed ecologically sensitive areas and violated wastewater regulations.But with Musk now part of Trump’s inner circle, the billionaire may find a smoother path under the incoming administration. Meanwhile, Bezos and fellow tech mogul Mark Zuckerberg are set to attend the president-elect’s inauguration on Monday, signaling warming ties.

Los Angeles fire evacuees told no return for at least a week

Tens of thousands of people ordered to flee their homes as wildfires tore through Los Angeles were told Thursday they would not be allowed back for at least a week, with fears over electrocution, landslides and exposure to toxic materials. Frustration is mounting among evacuees, who are angry over rules that prevent them from returning — even to homes that survived the deadly blazes.”There was a group chat where everyone was complaining, getting mad, saying, ‘why do they keep on locking us out of our homes?'” Ronnen Miz told local broadcaster KTLA.But with 40,000 acres (16,000 hectares) burned in two ferocious fires, the situation is just too dangerous, officials said.Electricity, gas and sewage lines are wrecked, there is toxic waste everywhere, and there is a growing threat of hazardous mudslides or landslips, officials said at a news conference.”It’s going to be a while,” said Los Angeles County Sheriff Robert Luna. “I’m going to say at minimum, at least another week, and that’s an estimate, but I believe it’s going to be longer than that.”According to the latest coroner’s tally, at least 27 people have died in wind-driven fires that ripped through the upmarket enclave of Pacific Palisades and the more mixed community of Altadena.Luna said search teams were continuing to comb the rubble looking for victims, with the number of dead expected to rise.Authorities were also holding people back from some areas “because we believe there may be deceased victims” he said. – Destabilized hillsides -Teams from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) began inspections Thursday as they work to remove pesticides, fuel and lithium batteries from the wreckage before any debris clean-up can take place.Los Angeles County Director of Public Works Mark Pestrella said apparently unaffected structures could be hit by landslides, and any substantial rain could be dangerous.”In the event that we have major rain, we do expect that all of the street areas and all the communities will be impacted by debris flows that could be hazardous to human health.”Hillsides have been destabilized by the fires, and by the huge volumes of water that firefighters used in a bid to tame them.Photographs from the Pacific Palisades area showed one home — undamaged by the fire — that appeared to have broken in two after the flames were extinguished when part of a hillside collapsed.- Pam Shriver -US tennis great Pam Shriver revealed on Thursday a cache of major trophies from her illustrious career were stolen after she evacuated from the fire.Shriver, 62, packed five US Open trophies, five French Open plates, five Wimbledon trophies and one Australian Open trophy into her car as she fled her Brentwood home and headed to a hotel on Friday.Some time later, she found the car — and its irreplaceable contents — had been stolen.”It’s really sad on so many levels that when people are at their lowest and in their most difficult times, people are doing things like this,” Shriver told ESPN.- Hotspots -Gusting winds that have rattled the region for more than a week, spreading the fire over a wide area, had subsided Thursday, giving firefighters a much-needed boost as they mopped up hotspots.The work of battalions from all over the United States was being bolstered by crews of inmates, who toil alongside regular firefighters to cut containment lines and clear brush.Jacob Castro, who has served 29 years for his crimes, said he was grateful for the chance to help out in the fire effort and repay his debt to society.”It’s the first thing I’ve done in my life that I’m proud of,” he told AFP.”I love doing this, helping the community by making up for the bad decisions I made in life,” said Castro, who has a coveted spot in one of the fire training camps operated by the California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation.”It’s a chance to redeem myself.”

‘Damaging’ AI porn scandal at US school scars victims

Her voice tinged with anger, an American mother worried about what the future holds for her teenage daughter, just one of dozens of girls targeted in yet another AI-enabled pornography scandal that has rocked a US school.The controversy that engulfed the Lancaster Country Day School in Pennsylvania last year highlights a new normal for pupils and educators struggling to keep up with a boom in cheap, easily available artificial intelligence tools that have facilitated hyperrealistic deepfakes. One parent, who spoke to AFP on the condition of anonymity, said her 14-year-old daughter came to her “hysterically crying” last summer after finding AI-generated nude pictures of her circulating among her peers.”What are the ramifications to her long term?” the mother said, voicing fears that the manipulated images could resurface when her daughter applies to college, starts dating, or enters the job market.”You can’t tell that they are fake.”Multiple charges — including sexual abuse of children and possession of child pornography — were filed last month against two teenage boys who authorities allege created the images.Investigators uncovered 347 images and videos affecting a total of 60 victims, most of them female students at the private school, on the messaging app Discord.All but one was younger than 18.- ‘Troubling’ -The scandal is the latest in a wave of similar incidents in schools across US states — from California to New Jersey — leading to a warning from the FBI last year that such child sexual abuse material, including realistic AI-generated images, was illegal.”The rise of generative AI has collided with a long-standing problem in schools: the act of sharing non-consensual intimate imagery,” said Alexandra Reeve Givens, chief executive of the nonprofit Center for Democracy & Technology (CDT).”In the digital age, kids desperately need support to navigate tech-enabled harassment.”A CDT survey of public schools last September found that 15 percent of students and 11 percent of teachers knew of at least one “deepfake that depicts an individual associated with their school in a sexually explicit or intimate manner.”Such non-consensual imagery can lead to harassment, bullying or blackmail, sometimes causing devastating mental health consequences.The mother who spoke to AFP said she knows of victims who had avoided school, had trouble eating or required medical attention and counseling to cope with the ordeal.She said she and other parents brought into a detective’s office to scrutinize the deepfakes were shocked to find printed out images stacked a “foot and a half” high.”I had to see pictures of my daughter,” she said.”If someone looked, they would think it’s real, so that’s even more damaging.”- ‘Exploitation’ -The alleged perpetrators, whose names have not been released, are accused of lifting pictures from social media, altering them using an AI application and sharing them on Discord.The mother told AFP the fakes of her daughter were primarily altered from public photos on the school’s Instagram page as well as a screenshot of a FaceTime call.A simple online search throws up dozens of apps and websites that allow users to create “deepnudes,” digitally removing clothing, or superimpose selected faces onto pornographic images.”Although results may not be as realistic or compelling as a professional rendition, these services mean that no technical skills are needed to produce deepfake content,” Roberta Duffield, director of intelligence at Blackbird.AI, told AFP.Only a handful of US states have passed laws to deal with sexually explicit deepfakes, including Pennsylvania at the end of last year. The top leadership at the Pennsylvania school stepped aside after parents of the victims filed a lawsuit accusing the administration of failing to report the activity when they were first alerted to it in late 2023.Researchers say schools are ill-equipped to tackle the threat of AI technology evolving at a rapid pace, in part because the law is still playing catchup.”Underage girls are increasingly subject to deepfake exploitation from their friends, colleagues, school classmates,” said Duffield.”Education authorities must urgently develop clear, comprehensive policies regarding the use of AI and digital technologies.”