Whether or not the world’s biggest polluter increased carbon emissions last year is up for debate after releases of conflicting Chinese data, according to a leading climate researcher.
(Bloomberg) — Whether or not the world’s biggest polluter increased carbon emissions last year is up for debate after releases of conflicting Chinese data, according to a leading climate researcher.
The discrepancy lies in the difference between official statistics indicating strong growth in coal use, and industrial data showing weak output in all of the major coal-burning sectors, said Lauri Myllyvirta, an analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. The difference means that China’s emissions could have increased by 1.3% at one extreme, or fallen by 1% at the other, Myllyvirta wrote in a report published in Carbon Brief.
China is by far the world’s largest source of greenhouse gases, and the gap between the two estimates is equivalent to Spain’s entire annual emissions in 2020, according to BP Plc data. The risk is that any increase will derail the government’s target of reducing the economy’s emissions intensity by 2025, which has implications for its broader net zero goals and the world’s carbon budget as a whole.
The National Bureau of Statistics didn’t respond to a request for comment outside normal business hours.
As last year’s Covid Zero restrictions and property crisis suppressed economic growth, coal power generation grew by less than 1%, while production of heavily emitting steel and cement both contracted. Despite that, official consumption data showed a 3.3% increase in coal use, Myllyvirta said.
One possible reason for the discrepancy is the global spike in natural gas prices last year, which led power plants and factories to swap in cheaper coal. Still, China’s capacity for switching between the fuels is limited, so that couldn’t account for the entire difference, he said.
Another possibility is that China’s push to mine more coal led to increased production of lower-quality fuel. That would mean more volume was needed to generate the same amount of electricity.
Having abandoned Covid Zero, China’s growth is highly likely to accelerate this year. But emissions don’t necessarily have to follow suit, Myllyvirta said. Although demand for transport fuels is set to rebound after the end of movement restrictions, if the government shifts its stimulus away from heavy industry and toward household consumption, it could get the economy back on track while steering clear of missing its climate targets, he said.
The Week’s Diary
Wednesday, Feb. 15
- China sets monthly medium-term lending rate, 09:20
- China holds briefing in Beijing on natural disaster risks, 10:00
- CCTD’s weekly online briefing on Chinese coal, 15:00
- CRU webinar on metals impact of China’s post-Covid recovery, 16:00
- China Photovoltaic Industry Association’s 2022 review & 2023 outlook seminar in Beijing, day 1
- Light Energy Cup solar forum in Suzhou, day 1
- Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi visits China
Thursday, Feb. 16
- China new home prices for January, 09:30
- China Photovoltaic Industry Assoc.’s solar 2022 review & 2023 outlook seminar in Beijing, day 1
- Light Energy Cup solar forum in Suzhou, day 2
- Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi visits China
Friday, Feb. 17
- China weekly iron ore port stockpiles
- Shanghai exchange weekly commodities inventory, ~15:30
On The Wire
China’s central bank added more cash into the financial system to meet a rapid rebound in loan demand after the nation eased Covid restrictions.
–With assistance from Lin Zhu.
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