China’s provinces are almost all targeting economic growth of 5% or more in 2023 after missing their goals last year amid the Covid and property-fueled slowdown.
(Bloomberg) — China’s provinces are almost all targeting economic growth of 5% or more in 2023 after missing their goals last year amid the Covid and property-fueled slowdown.
Most of China’s 31 provincial-level jurisdictions — including economic powerhouses Zhejiang and Shandong — see their economies expanding between 5% and 6.5% this year from a year ago, according to Bloomberg analysis of local government work reports.
While a faster reopening from the nation’s Covid Zero strategy is expected to boost the economic outlook this year, 23 of the regional growth goals are actually smaller for 2023 compared to the prior year — including several that changed their targets from “above” a certain percentage to “around” that amount. Only five of the jurisdictions raised their targets, while another three kept them unchanged.
The targets came as at least 22 jurisdictions missed their 2022 growth targets by large margins, according to data that has been disclosed so far.
On the national level, senior Chinese officials have debated setting an economic growth target of around 5% for 2023, Bloomberg has reported. That would be slightly lower than the “around 5.5%” goal set for 2022 — a target that economists suspect China missed by a wide margin, with the median estimate for last year’s growth in a Bloomberg survey reaching just 2.7%.
Economists forecast growth in 2023 of 4.8%, according to a Bloomberg survey.
The provincial-level targets for 2023, meanwhile, span a wide range — from a mere 4% increase eyed by Tianjin to the 9.5% growth goal set by Hainan. Neither province has released comprehensive gross domestic product growth data for 2022. Tianjin’s early estimates suggest growth may have flatlined or even contracted last year, while Hainan has said it likely recorded “positive growth.”
Last year’s worst performers — among those which have disclosed data — included Guangdong, Guizhou and Chongqing, which reported likely growth of around 2%. All of those provinces suffered from Covid outbreaks and strict controls to curb infections, including lockdowns.
Better performers were Jiangxi and Ningxia, which were less affected by the pandemic and projected growth of around 5% for last year.
One theme dominating the local government work reports was the goal to boost domestic demand this year, a sign that authorities want to adhere to a call from top leaders about relying on consumption and investment within the country to drive growth.
The city of Chongqing, for instance, said it would “prioritize the recovery and expansion of consumption.” Anhui province vowed to “lose no time to restore and expand consumption.”
Local economies are also trying to stabilize the real-estate sector after a tumultuous year. Shandong province said it would take steps to “activate the real-estate market” and promote the industry’s “smooth transition” to a new development model. Henan said it would focus on ensuring home deliveries.
–With assistance from James Mayger.
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