A peace deal between authorities and gangs in Nigeria’s Kaduna state has put a dent in deadly attacks and kidnappings — a welcome respite in the country’s battered northwest, though the agreement remains on shaky ground.Kaduna is one of several states in the northwest and centre of the country that have for years been terrorised by criminal gangs — referred to as bandits by locals — who carry out mass kidnappings for ransom, rustle cattle and raid villages.After months of negotiations, the state government signed a peace deal with the criminal gangs in November in a desperate attempt to end the cycle of violence, which has persisted despite military deployments.But several months on, the porous nature of Kaduna’s borders, the growing presence of jihadists in the northwest and the fact the gangs have been able to keep their arms have observers worrying over the deal’s collapse.”Kaduna realised that the conflict cannot be solved by military means alone,” Ikemesit Effiong, a partner at Lagos-based risk consultancy SBM, told AFP. But the accord “lacks comprehensive demobilisation and rehabilitation elements”.Nigeria’s bandits, who pursue economic motives rather than the ideological underpinnings of their jihadist counterparts, have been taking advantage of weak state presence in rural Nigeria to assert their own power.Notorious for mass abductions from schools, they operate from camps hidden deep within a vast forest spanning Kaduna, Katsina, Zamfara, Kebbi and Niger states.Competition for natural resources between nomadic herders and farmers, intensified by rapid population growth and climate pressures, has helped worsen the social tensions and violence underpinning the crisis.In 2024 alone, more than 2.2 trillion naira ($1.45 billion) was paid in ransoms, according to the Nigerian military. Some 10,937 criminals were killed, and 12,538 were arrested by security forces.State officials declined repeated requests for details about the agreement.But security sources told AFP that the terms of the deal require the bandits, who have largely drawn their ranks from ethnic Fulani herders, to halt attacks on communities to allow farmers to cultivate their fields, particularly in the Birnin Gwari district, an agricultural hub devastated by violence.In exchange, military operations against the bandits would cease and herders in the region would be allowed to attend local markets to purchase goods and sell their cattle — activities they had collectively been denied due to community backlash.- Broken deals -Nigerian authorities have often negotiated with criminal gangs to curb violence. In 2009, the government granted amnesty to armed militants in the oil-rich Niger Delta in exchange for the surrender of their weapons.A similar programme was introduced for repentant jihadists in the country’s northeast.Katsina and Zamfara states in the northwest have implemented cash-for-guns programmes for violent gangs. However, these deals collapsed after a few months.The Kaduna arrangement is already wobbling.Last month, several people were killed and kidnapped in two separate attacks on the Dawakin Bassa community in Birnin Gwari district, violating the peace deal, according to residents.Authorities called the attack an isolated incident, and the peace has largely held in northern Kaduna.A spate of attacks in the state’s Christian-majority south, however, has sparked worries that bandits might stoke long-standing ethnic and religious tensions. There are also concerns that renegade bandits or gangs from neighbouring Niger and Katsina states that are not covered by the deal could launch attacks inside Kaduna, said Effiong.On the other hand, lawmakers in neighbouring Niger state last month blamed attacks there on bandits who they say now use Kaduna as a safe haven.- Jihadist infiltration – Adding to the instability is the movement of jihadist groups from the northeast into central and northwest Nigeria, where they have staked out cooperation with bandit groups.Ansaru, a Boko Haram breakaway faction with links to Al-Qaeda, is believed to be active in central Kogi state, Birnin Gwari forests and the areas around Kaduna, where “they collaborate with bandits”, according to a security source.”Ansaru has strong financial support from jihadist groups in the wider Sahel and the Middle East,” and has the potential to sabotage the deal by pushing aligned bandits to renege on the agreement, Effiong said.Moreover, there’s a lack of a clear disarmament strategy — unlike the amnesty programme for jihadists in the northeast.”The bandits have largely kept their weapons; all the government wants is for them to stop attacks and maintain peace,” Effiong said. “It highlights the weakness of the state government’s position.”
