Erdogan Clings to His Ideal Election Date Despite Earthquakes

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan plans to step up rebuilding efforts following two deadly earthquakes and stick to an election timetable he declared earlier, as he seeks to shore up popularity ahead of a potential hit to the economy.

(Bloomberg) —

Erdogan and senior members of his AK Party held meetings last week to discuss the pros and cons of a postponement to manage the aftermath of the natural disaster, according to people familiar with the talks. Their conclusion was to stick with the proposed vote timetable of May 14, though a return to the original date of June 18 remains on the table, they said.

That remains the case even after two more tremblors struck Turkey on Monday in the same area as the original pair, the people said.

The earthquakes that devastated southeast Turkey and Syria two weeks ago have killed more than 42,000 people and destroyed whole cities, upending election campaigns that were well in motion at the time of the disaster. The quake zone was home to about 8 million registered voters, or 14% of the electorate, and Turkey’s supreme election council is expected to rule on how or whether ballots can be held there. About 2 million voters have left the area, according to the government.

That’s caused a headache for Erdogan, who was gearing up for what is expected to be one of the toughest electoral races of his two decades in power. The pace of the country’s emergency response and quality of construction work over a years-long boom have led to mounting criticism of the president, who has pledged a multi—billion dollar construction blitz of quake-proof buildings and distributed handouts to quake victims in response.

Erdogan has acknowledged an initial delay in dispatching rescue teams due to harsh winter conditions, but his government and the army have denied the overall response has been inadequate.

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Erdogan has publicly refrained from making a commitment to his previously declared, preferred election timetable since the earthquakes. The government declined to comment.

While postponing the vote could give the government more time to prioritize and address the crisis, Erdogan sees a quick start to the rebuilding effort and a commitment to the election timetable as a way to show strength, the people said. He also fears a delay to the vote could coincide with a further deterioration of the economy, with large parts of the population contending with the worst cost-of-living crisis in two decades, they said.

Turkey’s opposition leaders have insisted on holding elections as originally scheduled on June 18, and the president doesn’t want to give the impression he is trying to dodge the vote, the people said.

The president has previously said he would officially trigger the election process by around March 10 for the ballot to take place in mid-May. If he refrains from doing that, the vote would have to be held on June 18, the original slated date.

Pushing the vote later than that isn’t permissible under Turkey’s current constitution, which allows the president to do such a thing only during times of war.

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