From markets in Bursa to universities near Ankara and the streets of Berlin, the mood among many Turkish voters is tilting against Recep Tayyip Erdogan and could thwart the powerful president’s reelection bid.
(Bloomberg) — From markets in Bursa to universities near Ankara and the streets of Berlin, the mood among many Turkish voters is tilting against Recep Tayyip Erdogan and could thwart the powerful president’s reelection bid.
Workers suffering from brutal inflation, young people worried about grim prospects and wavering support among once-steadfast voters from the Turkish diaspora are combining to pose the biggest ever threat to Erdogan’s power.
The 69-year-old — who has dominated the country’s politics for two decades — wields almost unbridled authority and is now taking the heat for the country’s woes. The upshot will likely mean he’ll fall short of the 50% needed to win in the first round of voting on May 14.
“We’re neck deep,” said Hasan Cakir, surrounded by bags of henna in his tiny shop in northwestern Turkey. “Even if I’m going to die because of it, I’m still not going to vote for him.”
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The 51-year-old merchant had cast his ballot for the Turkish leader and his conservative AK Party at every election in the past 21 years, but like millions of other Turks, he saw his quality of life erode since Erdogan grabbed more power after his 2018 reelection. Rampant inflation in the last few years even surged past 100% in Istanbul and other large cities, and reached a peak of 85% nationwide in late 2022.
While increases probably slowed to below 50% in April, prices of everything from housing to cars and food quadrupled in a matter of years. Many blame Erdogan’s efforts to extend his influence across all aspects of the economy, including monetary policy.
Unorthodox interest rate cuts further fueled price gains in the aftermath of the Covid pandemic, sapped the Turkish lira’s value by more than 75% against the dollar since the last election, and sparked an exodus of investors. Economists attribute Turkey’s outlier status to Erdogan’s economic experiment going terribly wrong.
The frustration is widespread enough that Erdogan is projected to be denied victory in the first round against main rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who’s backed by a broad coalition of opposition parties. Recent polls put the two neck and neck, with both shy of the majority needed to gain power. There would then be a runoff two weeks later for the first time.
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Bloomberg reporters spoke to voters in Bursa, Eskisehir, Balikesir and Canakkale — key cities in an industrial and agricultural hub in the northwest that’s critical to the economy — as well as Turks in Berlin, home to the biggest pool of voters outside the country.
The interviews revealed an electorate deeply divided along social values, age and pay. Older, conservative voters were more likely to stick to Erdogan, while poorer people are losing faith. Younger voters are the most frustrated.
Disaffected Youth
Turkey’s poor recent economic performance and Erdogan’s authoritarian power grab have made him much less popular among younger people and those living in city centers.
“I don’t understand how anyone at my age can still possibly support Erdogan,” said Elif Torun, a 21-year-old university student in Eskisehir, a city neighboring Turkey’s capital Ankara. “We’re even calculating the cost of our meals, skipping lunch some days to save money.”
That could be problematic. Since the 2018 elections, about 6 million people have become eligible to vote — nearly 10% of the electorate.
Diaspora Split
Fading prospects in Turkey has prompted young people like Yaren Akcakoyun to leave in pursuit of opportunity, gradually shifting the dynamics of a group that Erdogan could once rely on for clear majorities.
The 24-year-old who studied to be a psychological counselor recently migrated to Germany from Turkey’s Adana region and is now looking for a job in Berlin. She has no love lost for Erdogan.
“If there is a change of government in Turkey, I would like to go back to my country and do the job I was trained in,” Akcakoyun said in the German capital’s Kreuzberg neighborhood.
But the view isn’t universal among the nearly 4 million Turkish voters living abroad — most in Germany, the Netherlands, France and Belgium.
While there are also a large number of anti-Erdogan Kurds scattered around Europe, most voters are Turkish descendants of so-called guest workers — brought in as cheap labor starting in the 1950s.
Treated as underclass in the countries where they settled, their experiences have led to staunch nationalist, pro-Erdogan sentiment, even if they support left-leaning parties locally.
“With Erdogan, our status here got a boost,” said Ismet Aydinlik, an 81-year-old retired man who migrated to Berlin nearly four decades ago and worked as a butcher. “They used to look down on us in the past. But now they see us as more powerful. I’m a supporter of Erdogan’s party. I’m not shy about it.”
The Devil You Know
Similar sentiment is evident in the Turkish heartlands, where Erdogan is viewed as the strong leader the country needs to guide them out of hard times — even if it was the president’s policies that played a major role in creating the situation.
Surrounded by Turkish flags adorning the walls of his small workshop in Balikesir, Ali Erdik gave Erdogan a free pass on the policy missteps.
“There’s been an economic malaise due to reasons out of Erdogan’s hands,” the 51-year-old mechanic said. “But he’s also the one who can fix it.”
In uncertain times, many people tend to prefer what they know and Erdogan’s long history running the country is a distinct advantage over his main rival.
“Kilicdaroglu just doesn’t come across as a strong leader,” Erdik said.
–With assistance from Tugce Ozsoy and Beril Akman.
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