President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is working on the assumption general elections will be held in Turkey three months from now despite twin earthquakes devastating much of the southeast this week.
(Bloomberg) —
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is working on the assumption general elections will be held in Turkey three months from now despite twin earthquakes devastating much of the southeast this week.
Erdogan, who is facing one of the toughest electoral races of his two decades in power, announced 90 days of emergency rule on Tuesday. It allows him to take swift security and financial measures in the areas stricken by the disaster, which has killed more than 6,000 people in Turkey. Parliament is expected to approve the move Wednesday.
Officials familiar with the discussions said Erdogan announced the 90-day measures and then plans to hold the vote straight after on May 14 as originally planned. They asked not to be identified because of the sensitivity of the matter. The emergency actions could also end before the full 90 days, the people said.
The presidency declined to comment.
Quake Latest: Turkey Declares Three-Month State of Emergency
Erdogan plans to visit the worst-hit cities of Kahramanmaras and Hatay Wednesday. The quake-hit regions are home to populations that tend to vote for his AK Party and which are essential to his success at the polls.
Erdogan has called the temblors the “biggest disaster not only in the history of the republic but also in the world,” and has mobilized his government for rescue and recovery operations.
Bloomberg Economics estimates public spending after the quakes may be equivalent to 5.5% of gross domestic product over two years.
TURKEY INSIGHT: Public Spending on Quake May Be 5.5% of GDP (1)
The government’s capacity to rescue people and deliver aid to the roughly 13.4 million people in the disaster zone is now the top issue for Erdogan ahead of the vote. The government allocated 100 billion liras ($5.3 billion) for initial response but rescue work is being hampered by harsh winter conditions in areas that also house millions of Syrian refugees.
Erdogan called several of his political rivals after the earthquakes, telling them the country should transcend political differences in order to overcome the devastation. He did not call the head of the main opposition Republican People’s Party, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who has said the country was ill-prepared for the disaster and blamed Erdogan personally.
“I don’t need to be in solidarity with Erdogan and his palace,” Kilicdaroglu said in a video posted on Twitter early Wednesday after he visited the quake zone. He accused the government of corruption and squandering taxpayers money earmarked for preparing for such disasters.
Why Turkey’s Next Election Is a Real Test for Erdogan: QuickTake
Since winning elections in 2018, Erdogan has assumed greater executive powers. But while those give him the ability to postpone the vote for one year at times of war, a natural disaster does not give him that automatic right. For the vote to be pushed further back from a June deadline, the governing party must reach an agreement with political rivals to amend the constitution.
The president needs to officially trigger the election process by around March 10 for the ballot to take place mid-May. If he refrains from doing that, the vote would have to be held on June 18, but the chances of that happening are slim, the officials said.
–With assistance from Beril Akman.
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