The euro fell to the lowest level in more than five months against the dollar Thursday, extending a slide unleashed by the European Central Bank’s latest interest-rate increase, which traders are concluding was likely its last.
(Bloomberg) — The euro fell to the lowest level in more than five months against the dollar Thursday, extending a slide unleashed by the European Central Bank’s latest interest-rate increase, which traders are concluding was likely its last.
The common currency, which fell below $1.066 within minutes of the ECB rate decision, resumed declining after European markets closed, falling as much as 0.9% to $1.0632, the lowest level since March 20. The euro weakened against all of its peers in the developed world.
It has scope to $1.05 in the coming weeks based on US economic superiority, said Bipan Rai, CIBC’s global head of foreign exchange strategy in Toronto. The Federal Reserve is contemplating additional rate increases, while ECB President Christine Lagarde after Thursday’s decision said it should prove “sufficient” as growth remains “slow and sluggish.”
“There’s enough within the US data to suggest that real activity is still somewhat resilient to current rate settings,” Rai said. “That means we’ve got to keep our options open for additional tightening from the Fed or a shallower easing profile relative to other central banks next year.”
With Thursday’s drop, the euro has fallen more than 5% from its year-to-date high in July. In addition to stronger US growth prospects, rising commodity prices that erode Europe’s terms of trade are working against the common currency.
“There is more demand for US assets versus European,” yet the currency has yet to adjust to that, said Brad Bechtel, global head of foreign exchange at Jefferies LLC in New York.
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